Pre-processing for approximate Bayesian computation in image analysis

Most of the existing algorithms for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) assume that it is feasible to simulate pseudo-data from the model at each iteration. However, the computational cost of these simulations can be prohibitive for high dimensional data. An important example is the Potts model, which is commonly used in image analysis. Images encountered in real world applications can have millions of pixels, therefore scalability is a major concern. We apply ABC with a synthetic likelihood to the hidden Potts model with additive Gaussian noise. Using a pre-processing step, we fit a binding function to model the relationship between the model parameters and the synthetic likelihood parameters. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the precomputed binding function dramatically improves the scalability of ABC, reducing the average runtime required for model fitting from 71 hours to only 7 minutes. We also illustrate the method by estimating the smoothing parameter for remotely sensed satellite imagery. Without precomputation, Bayesian inference is impractical for datasets of that scale.

Convolutional Neural Network-based place recognition

Recently Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art performance on various classification tasks. In this paper, we present for the first time a place recognition technique based on CNN models, by combining the powerful features learnt by CNNs with a spatial and sequential filter. Applying the system to a 70 km benchmark place recognition dataset we achieve a 75% increase in recall at 100% precision, significantly outperforming all previous state of the art techniques. We also conduct a comprehensive performance comparison of the utility of features from all 21 layers for place recognition, both for the benchmark dataset and for a second dataset with more significant viewpoint changes.

A hybrid quality function deployment and cybernetic analytic network process model for project manager selection

Identifying appropriate decision criteria and making optimal decisions in a structured way is a complex process. This paper presents an approach for doing this in the form of a hybrid Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Cybernetic Analytic Network Process (CANP) model for project manager selection. This involves the use of QFD to translate the owner's project management expectations into selection criteria and the CANP to weight the expectations and selection criteria. The supermatrix approach then prioritises the candidates with respect to the overall decision-making goal. A case study is used to demonstrate the use of the model in selecting a renovation project manager. This involves the development of 18 selection criteria in response to the owner's three main expectations of time, cost and quality.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Facebook for adults ? A longitudinal study of MBA student’s use of an enterprise social network for collaborative learning

The rapid pace of social media means that our understanding of the way in which it facilitates the learning process continues to lag. The findings of a longitudinal study of an executive MBA cohort over the period of eight months in their use of the social media application is presented. Over time the ownership and use of the Yammer site shifted to become student driven and facilitated. The motivations behind the site’s use, perceived advantages and disadvantages and changes in usage patterns are documented. The case provides a useful insight into the way in which students used this technology to facilitate their learning goals and how patterns of behaviour changed in response to the changing needs of the cohort.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

A supervisory load-leveling approach to improve the voltage profile in distribution network

This paper suggests a supervisory control for storage units to provide load leveling in distribution networks. This approach coordinates storage units to charge during high generation and discharge during peak load times, while utilized to improve the network voltage profile indirectly. The aim of this control strategy is to establish power sharing on a pro rata basis for storage units. As a case study, a practical distribution network with 30 buses is simulated and the results are provided.

Estimating the impact of reduced inertia on frequency stability due to large-scale wind penetration in Australian electricity network

Large-scale integration of non-inertial generators such as wind farms will create frequency stability issues due to reduced system inertia. Inertia based frequency stability study is important to predict the performance of power system with increased level of renewables. This paper focuses on the impact large-scale wind penetration on frequency stability of the Australian Power Network. MATLAB simulink is used to develop a frequency based dynamic model utilizing the network data from a simplified 14-generator Australian power system. The loss of generation is modeled as the active power disturbance and minimum inertia required to maintain the frequency stability is determined for five-area power system.

The application of social network analysis in the construction industry of Hong Kong

The Hong Kong construction industry is currently facing ageing problem and labour shortage. There are opportunities for employing ethnic minority construction workers to join this hazardous industry. These ethnic minority workers are prone to accidents due to communication barriers. Safety communication is playing an important role for avoiding the accidents on construction sites. However, the ethnic minority workers are not very fluent in the local language and facing safety communication problems while working with local workers. Social network analysis (SNA), being an effective tool to identify the safety communication flow on the construction site, is used to attain the measures of safety communication like centrality, density and betweenness within the ethnic minorities and local workers, and to generate sociograms that visually represent communication pattern within the effective and ineffective safety networks. The aim of this paper is to present the application of SNA for improving the safety communication of ethnic minorities in the construction industry of Hong Kong. The paper provides the theoretical background of SNA approaches for the data collection and analysis using the software UCINET and NetDraw, to determine the predominant safety communication network structure and pattern of ethnic minorities on site.

Social network resilience following organisational change

This paper presents two key findings from a longitudinal study examining the dynamics of social networks during organisational change. One, the degree to which users seek new sources of information while adapting to the change. Two, the degree to which social networks display structural resilience when undergoing significant structural and technological change. Users reported an increase in advice ties post-implementation, however a proportionally higher increase in ties within their work group compared to the wider network was identified. The results also supported the supposition that while IT driven change may initially disrupt social networks some networks possess a high degree of resilience, with key players reasserting their original positions of influence following the initial phase of change related disruption.