Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

Processos de auto-regulação no curso de vida: controle primário e controle secundário

Este artigo discute conceitos relevantes à perspectiva do curso de vida, porém pouco difundidos no Brasil: controle primário e controle secundário. O primeiro se refere aos esforços que o indivíduo empreende para adaptar o ambiente às suas necessidades; o segundo, para se adaptar ao ambiente. Apresenta-se a formulação original dos conceitos como modelo de dois processos de controle, em oposição a modelos de processo único, como o do desamparo aprendido. Em seguida, discute-se revisão conceitual que trouxe modificação e ampliação para estes construtos, concebendo-os em um modelo bidimensional que articula controle primário e secundário com os conceitos de seleção e compensação. Nesse processo, apresentam-se contribuições no intuito de estimular a reflexão e expandir a discussão teórico-conceitual que envolve estes construtos.

Desenvolvimento de modelo auto-regressivo para previsão em pronto-atendimento

The 1988 constitution makes an life is a supreme good when increased health as the fundamental condition requiring that all ill patient has the right to be treated in a public hospital (CF, art. 196). In this sense, the goal of this work is to generate a weekly forecast of hospital care by means of an advanced prediction model. It is expected that the model of self-regressivas seasonal moving averages SARIMA generate reliable and adherent to issue forecasts analyzed, thus enabling better resource allocation and more efficient hospital management

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Estudo da viabilidade de implantação do INOVAR-AUTO utilizando o método do fluxo de caixa sob risco

The automobile industry has a growing importance in the Brazilian economic environment. The industry moves a huge chain that encompasses manufacturers, suppliers of raw materials, auto parts dealers, gas stations, insurance companies, repair shops, tire stores, media companies, advertising agencies, among others. Because of this importance in the current economic environment in Brazil, the federal government, through Law No. 12715 of 17 December 2012 established a Program for the Promotion of Innovation and Densification in the Productive Chain of Motor Vehicles called INOVAR-AUTO in order to support technological development, innovation, safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency and quality of cars, trucks, buses and auto parts. The specific purpose of this study, a simulation for discussion of the viability of the program implementation using the Monte Carlo Simulation combined with the Cash-Flow-at-Risk was performed. To this end, an exploratory and documentary literature on the subject was held as well as a case study in a automobile company of Japanese origin

A Simpler and More Accurate AUTO-HDS Framework for Clustering and Visualization of Biological Data

In [1], the authors proposed a framework for automated clustering and visualization of biological data sets named AUTO-HDS. This letter is intended to complement that framework by showing that it is possible to get rid of a user-defined parameter in a way that the clustering stage can be implemented more accurately while having reduced computational complexity

Molecular detection of in-vivo microbial contamination of metallic orthodontic brackets by checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization

Introduction: Knowing the microbiota that colonizes orthodontic appliances is important for planning strategies and implementing specific preventive measures during treatment. The purpose of this clinical trial was to evaluate in vivo the contamination of metallic orthodontic brackets with 40 DNA probes for different bacterial species by using the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization (CDDH) technique. Methods: Eighteen patients, 11 to 29 years of age having fixed orthodontic treatment, were enrolled in the study. Each subject had 2 new metallic brackets bonded to different premolars in a randomized manner. After 30 days, the brackets were removed and processed for analysis by CDDH. Data on bacterial contamination were analyzed descriptively and with the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn post tests (alpha = 0.05). Forty microbial species (cariogenic microorganisms, bacteria of the purple, yellow, green, orange complexes, "red complex + Treponema socranskii," and the cluster of Actinomyces) were assessed. Results: Most bacterial species were present in all subjects, except for Streptococcus constellatus, Campylobacter rectus, Tannerella forsythia, T socranskii, and Lactobacillus acidophillus (94.4%), Propionibacterium acnes I and Eubacterium nodatum (88.9%), and Treponema denticola (77.8%). Among the cariogenic microorganisms, Streptococcus mutans and Streptococcus sobrinus were found in larger numbers than L acidophillus and Lactobacillus casei (P < 0.001). The periodontal pathogens of the orange complex were detected in larger numbers than those of the "red complex + T socranskii" (P < 0.0001). Among the bacteria not associated with specific pathologies, Veillonella parvula (purple complex) was the most frequently detected strain (P < 0.0001). The numbers of yellow and green complex bacteria and the cluster of Actinomyces were similar (P > 0.05). Conclusions: Metallic brackets in use for 1 month were multi-colonized by several bacterial species, including cariogenic microorganisms and periodontal pathogens, reinforcing the need for meticulous oral hygiene and additional preventive measures to maintain oral health in orthodontic patients. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2012;141:24-9)

Molecular detection of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans on metallic brackets by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique

Introduction: The purpose of this randomized clinical study was to evaluate the presence of the periodontal pathogen Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans on metallic brackets and the effectiveness of a 0.12% chlorhexidine digluconate mouthwash in inhibiting this microorganism. Methods: The study involved 35 patients of both sexes having orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances between the ages of 14 and 22 years, randomized into 2 groups: experimental (n = 17) and control (n = 18). Two new metallic brackets were placed on the patients' premolars, and the subjects rinsed with a solution of 0.12% chlorhexidine digluconate or a placebo solution twice a week for 30 days. After that, the brackets were removed and underwent microbiologic analysis with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique. Data were analyzed by using the Student t, Fisher exact, and Mann-Whitney tests at the significance level of 5%. Results: The results showed that A actinomycetemcomitans was present in all brackets from the subjects in the control group vs 83% of the subjects who rinsed with chlorhexidine digluconate (P<0.0001). There were also significantly lower levels of this species in the chlorhexidine digluconate group compared with the control group (P = 0.0003). Conclusions: We concluded that 0.12% chlorhexidine digluconate rinsing, twice a week for 30 days during orthodontic treatment, is effective in reducing the presence and levels of A actinomycetemcomitans on metallic brackets. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2012;142:481-6)

Coralistas amadores: auto-imagem, dificuldades e sintomas na voz cantada

Purpose: to evaluate vocal self-perception, difficulties and presence of negative symptoms after singing of amateur choir singers of different vocal classifications, age and experience. Method: one hundred and twenty five singers answered a questionnaire containing identification data, information about self-perception of the singing voice, difficulties with singing and negative symptoms after singing. Results: the comparison considering vocal classification evidenced greater difficulties with high notes for altos and basses, greater difficulty regarding the transition to high notes for basses and greater vocal fatigue for altos. Comparing the singers by age, both adults and young adults referred more breathiness than the elderly. The adults referred better vocal intensity than the young adults. The young adults referred better timbre than adults. Regarding the experience, the less experienced singers reported self-perception of hoarseness and presence of hoarseness after singing in greater number than the experienced singers. Conclusion: the difficulties with singing are connected to the vocal classification and do not depend on age or experience. Vocal symptoms are related to the vocal classification and to the experience with singing. Negative self-perception is also related the vocal classification and to the experience with singing, and positive self-perception was more reported by experienced singers.

Clinical evaluation of the failure rate of metallic brackets bonded with orthodontic composites

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate in vivo the failure rate of metallic brackets bonded with two orthodontic composites. Nineteen patients with ages ranging from 10.5 to 38.7 years needing corrective orthodontic treatment were selected for study. The enamel surfaces from second premolars to second premolars were treated with Transbond Plus-Self Etching Primer (3M Unitek). Next, 380 orthodontic brackets were bonded on maxillary and mandibular teeth, as follows: 190 with Transbond XT composite (3M Unitek) (control) and 190 with Transbond Plus Color Change (3M Unitek) (experimental) in contralateral quadrants. The bonded brackets were light cured for 40 s, and initial alignment archwires were inserted. Bond failure rates were recorded over a six-month period. At the end of the evaluation, six bond failures occurred, three for each composite. Kaplan-Meyer method and log-rank test (Mantel-Cox) was used for statistical analysis, and no statistically significant difference was found between the materials (p=0.999). Both Transbond XT and Transbond Plus Color Change composites had low debonding rates over the study period.