Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Adaptability of Damara, Dorper and Traditional Meat Sheep Breeds in Semi-Arid Queensland

Reproductive rate is a major contributing factor to the profitability of a sheep meat enterprise. Low reproduction rate is a feature of sheep husbandry in semi-arid Queensland. High ambient temperatures are implicated in poor fertility (Moule 1970) where variation in response can be due to breed and to animals within a breed (Hopkins and Stephenson 1978). Breeds recently imported from South Africa were selected in arid environments and may be better adapted to pastoral conditions of northern Australia than traditional breeds. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia. This study will investigate (a) the thermoregulatory ability of Damara, Dorper, Poll Dorset, Rambouillet, South African Meat Merino and Queensland medium wool Merino rams prior to joinings in the autumn and spring of 1999, 2000 and 2001 and (b) the association between thermoregulatory parameters (rectal temperature and respiration rate) and ewe fertility. Results for the initial autumn joining are reported in this paper.

Presence of Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide–Independent Haemophilus paragallinarum in Mexico

Two isolates of Haemophilus paragallinarum were obtained from a layer chicken in Mexico. The isolates were confirmed as H. paragallinarum by polymerase chain reaction and conventional biochemical identification. The isolates were nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) independent—growing on blood agar without the need of a nurse colony as well as on a complex medium that lacked both NAD and chicken serum. Both isolates were pathogenic, causing the typical clinical signs of infectious coryza in susceptible chickens. One isolate was Page serovar B/Kume serovar B-1 and the other isolate was Page serovar C/Kume serovar C-2. The isolates were associated with a field outbreak that involved an egg drop of 20% over a 3 wk period and a doubling of weekly mortality (from 0.1% to 0.2%). This is the first report of NAD-independent H. paragallinarum outside South Africa and is the first time that NADindependent H. paragallinarum of serovar B has been reported. Abbreviations: NAD ¼ nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide; NAM ¼ nicotinamide; PCR ¼ polymerase chain reaction; TM ¼ complete growth medium without chicken serum or nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide; TM/SN ¼ complete growth medium that contains both chicken serum and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Genetic diversity, aggressiveness and metalaxyl sensitivity of Pythium spinosum infecting cucumber in Oman

A total of 24 isolates of Pythium spinosum from cucumber obtained from five regions in Oman were characterized for genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting and three isolates from the Netherlands, South Africa and Japan were included for comparison. Isolates from Oman were also characterized for aggressiveness on cucumber seedlings and sensitivity to metalaxyl. Identity of all isolates was confirmed using sequences of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of the ribosomal DNA (rDNA), which showed more than 99% nucleotide similarity among all isolates. Using six primer-pair combinations, AFLP fingerprinting resolved 295 AFLP markers of which 193 were polymorphic among isolates from other countries and only six were polymorphic among isolates of P. spinosum from Oman. Seven different AFLP phenotypes of P. spinosum were recovered in Oman; two of them were found to contain over 79% of isolates and one was recovered from all regions in Oman. Phenotypes from Oman showed very high (?99%) levels of genetic similarity to each other compared to moderate (mean =53%) levels of genetic similarity with phenotypes from other countries. In addition, all isolates from Oman were found to be highly sensitive to metalaxyl and all were aggressive on cucumber seedlings at 25°C. The high genetic similarity among phenotypes of P. spinosum in Oman as well as recovering two major clones across regions may suggest that P. spinosum has been recently introduced in Oman via a common source.

Acacia nilotica ssp. indica (L.) Willd. ex Del. (Mimosaceae)

Prickly acacia, a Weed of National Significance or WONS, is a serious problem in Queensland particularly the Mitchell grass downs where it was once planted to provide shade for livestock. The chapter summarises current knowledge about the taxonomy, biology, distribution, ecology, impacts and biological control of the weed. Queensland has been trying to achieve biological control of prickly acacia since 1980 when it began foreign exploration in Pakistan. Since then further exploration was undertaken in Kenya, South Africa and presently India. Six insects have been released in Queensland but only two of these are established. Greater emphasis is being placed on climate matching, plant response to herbivory and genotype matching in present work and it is hoped that this approach will allow more rigorous evaluations of agent performance and better understanding of reasons for success or failure of agents.

The introduction and release of Chiasmia inconspicua and C. assimilis (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) for the biological control of Acacia nilotica in Australia

Two geometrid moths Chiasmia inconspicua and Chiasmia assimilis, identified as potential biological control agents for prickly acacia Acacia nilotica subsp. indica, were collected in Kenya and imported into quarantine facilities in Australia where laboratory cultures were established. Aspects of the biologies of both insects were studied and CLIMEX® models indicating the climatically favourable areas of Australia were developed. Host range tests were conducted using an approved test list of 74 plant species and no-choice tests of neonate larvae placed on both cut foliage and potted plants. C. inconspicua developed through to adult on prickly acacia and, in small numbers, Acacia pulchella. C. assimilis developed through to adult on prickly acacia and also in very small numbers on A. pulchella, A. deanei, A. decurrens, and A. mearnsii. In all experiments, the response on prickly acacia could be clearly differentiated from the responses on the non-target species. Both insects were approved for release in Australia. Over a three-year period releases were made at multiple sites in north Queensland, almost all in inland areas. There was no evidence of either insect's establishment and both colonies were terminated. A new colony of C. assimilis was subsequently established from insects collected in South Africa and releases of C. assimilis from this new colony were made into coastal and inland infestations of prickly acacia. Establishment was rapid at one coastal site and the insect quickly spread to other infestations. Establishment at one inland area was also confirmed in early 2006. The establishment in coastal areas supported a CLIMEX model that indicated that the climate of coastal areas was more suitable than inland areas.

Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Clonal propagation and storage of subtropical pines in Queensland, Australia

Clonal forestry is the approach used for deployment of Pinus elliottii x P. caribaea hybrids in Queensland, Australia. Clonal forestry relies on the ability to maintain juvenility of stock plants while selections are made in field tests, so that genetic gains are not eroded by the effects of stock plant maturation. Two parallel approaches are employed in Queensland to maintain juvenility of clonal material. Firstly, the ortet and several ramets of each clone are maintained as archive hedges <20-cm height for the duration of field tests. Secondly, shoots from archive hedges are stored in tissue culture at low temperature and low irradiance to slow growth and slow maturation. Once the best clones have been identified, production hedges are derived from both archive hedges and tissue culture shoots. About 6 million rooted cuttings are produced annually, representing almost the entire planting program of Pinus in subtropical Queensland.

Phenotypic variation in natural populations of kikuyu in Australia

The quality of tropical grasses is a major limitation to animal production in tropical and subtropical areas. This is mainly associated with the lower digestibility because C4 grasses have higher fibre levels. Any improvement in quality would require a reduction in the lignin and an increase in the digestion of the neutral detergent fibre content of these plants (Clark and Wilson 1993). Kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) is an important grass for the dairy and beef industries of the subtropics of Australia, South Africa and New Zealand (Mears 1970). Increased digestibility could substantially improve animal production in these industries. These experiments investigated the variation in agronomic and quality of natural populations selected from diverse regions within Australia. Runners of 14 kikuyu selections were collected by project staff or local agronomists from areas considered to have grown kikuyu for over 30 years while Whittet and Noonan were established by seed. Entries were established as single spaced plants on a 1.5 m grid in a randomised block with 3 replicates and evaluated under irrigation at Mutdapilly (brown podsol) and Wollongbar (red ferrosol). Foliage height, forage production and runner yield were assessed along with crude protein (CP), in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD), metabolisable energy (ME), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and neutral detergent fibre (NDF) content of the leaf in autumn, winter and spring.

The leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma (Lep., Pyralidae), a host-specific biological control agent for cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) in Australia

Cat's claw creeper, Macfadyena unguis-cati, a major environmental weed in coastal and sub-coastal areas of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia is a target for classical biological control. Host specificity of Hypocosmia pyrochroma Jones (Lep., Pyralidae), as a potential biological control agent was evaluated on the basis of no-choice and choice larval feeding and survival, and adult oviposition preference tests, involving 38 plant species in 10 families. In no-choice tests, larval feeding and development occurred only on cat's claw creeper. In choice tests, oviposition and larval development was evident only on cat's claw creeper. The results support the host-specificity tests conducted in South Africa, and suggest that H. pyrochroma is a highly specific biological control agent that does not pose any risk to non-target plants tested in Australia. This agent has been approved for field release by relevant regulatory authorities in Australia.

The host range and biology of Cometaster pyrula; a biocontrol agent for Acacia nilotica subsp. indica in Australia

Prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica subsp. indica (Benth.) Brenan, a major weed of the Mitchell Grass Downs of northern Queensland, Australia, has been the target of biological control projects since the 1980s. The leaf-feeding caterpillar Cometaster pyrula (Hopffer) was collected from Acacia nilotica subsp. kraussiana (Benth.) Brenan during surveys in South Africa to find suitable biological control agents, recognised as a potential agent, and shipped into a quarantine facility in Australia. Cometaster pyrula has a life cycle of approximately 2 months during which time the larvae feed voraciously and reach 6 cm in length. Female moths oviposit a mean of 339 eggs. When presented with cut foliage of 77 plant species, unfed neonates survived for 7 days on only Acacia nilotica subsp. indica and Acacia nilotica subsp. kraussiana. When unfed neonates were placed on potted plants of 14 plant species, all larvae except those on Acacia nilotica subsp. indica and Acacia nilotica subsp. kraussiana died within 10 days of placement. Cometaster pyrula was considered to be highly host specific and safe to release in Australia. Permission to release C. pyrula in Australia was obtained and the insect was first released in north Queensland in October 2004. The ecoclimatic model CLIMEX indicated that coastal Queensland was climatically suitable for this insect but that inland areas were only marginally suitable.

Clinging on: a review on the biological control of cat’s claw creeper

Cat's claw creeper, a native of South America and an escaped ornamental, is a serious environmental weed in Australia, South Africa and also several other countries. This paper reviews the efforts made over the last decade to bring about its biological control. The paper describes the weed status of cat's claw creeper in both Australia and South Africa. These two countries have cooperated in developing biocontrol projects and insect agents have now been released in both countries. These insects and other potential agents are described and suggestions made for the future direction of the projects.

Global banana disease management - getting serious with sustainability and food security

Much research in understanding plant diseases has been undertaken, but there has been insufficient attention given to dealing with coordinated approaches to preventing and managing diseases. A global management approach is essential to the long-term sustainability of banana production. This approach would involve coordinated surveys, capacity building in developing countries, development of disease outbreak contingency plans and coordinated quarantine awareness, including on-line training in impact risk assessment and web-based diagnostic software. Free movement of banana plants and products between some banana-producing countries is causing significant pressure on the ability to manage diseases in banana. The rapid spread of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense 'tropical race 4' in Asia, bacterial wilts in Africa and Asia and black leaf streak [Mycosphaerella fijiensis] in Brazil and elsewhere are cases in point. The impact of these diseases is devastating, severely cutting family incomes and jeopardising food security around the globe. Agreements urgently need to be reached between governments to halt the movement of banana plants and products between banana-producing countries before it is too late and global food security is irreparably harmed. Black leaf streak, arguably the most serious banana disease, has become extremely difficult to control in commercial plantations in various parts of the world. Sometimes in excess of 50 fungicide sprays have to be applied each year. Disease eradication and effective disease control is not possible because there is no control of disease inoculum in non-commercial plantings in these locations. Additionally, there have been enormous sums of money invested in international banana breeding programmes over many years only to see the value of hybrid products lost too soon. 'Goldfinger' (AAAB, syn. 'FHIA-01'), for example, has recently been observed severely affected by black leaf streak in Samoa. Resistant cultivars alone cannot be relied upon in the fight against this disease. Real progress in control may only come when the local communities are engaged and become actively involved in regional programmes. Global recommendations are long overdue and urgently needed to help ensure the long-term sustainable utilisation of the products of the breeding programmes.

The distribution of badnavirus-infected Musa germplasm from the International Transit Centre, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium

Bioversity International is reviewing its moratorium on the distribution of virus-infected Musa germplasm from the International Transit Centre (ITC), and the ProMusa Crop Protection Working Group has been invited to comment on policy changes. This paper was written to form a basis of discussion among the working group members during the ISHS/ProMusa symposium. It argues that the distribution of Musa germplasm should be guided by the International Plant Protection Convention, which states that it is the responsibility of the importing country, not the exporter, to impose the phytosanitary measures. There may be special circumstances where the release of badnavirus-infected germplasm from the ITC could be justified.