Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Interet de la double voie d'abord dans les blepharoplasties superieures associees aux malpositions palpebrales. [Advantages of a double approach to upper blepharoplasty associated with eyelid malpositions]

During upper blepharoplasty, myocutaneous excess and fat pads are treated using an anterior approach. Eyelid malpositions such as involutional ptosis or lid retraction could be associated and should be treated with associated procedures. Aponeurotic surgery on the levator muscle can make use of the same anterior approach, with the major difficulty of dosage. In cases of ptosis with a positive epinephrine test or minor muscular retraction, the Muller muscle-conjunctival surgery via a posterior approach seems to be more reproducible. Double-approach techniques are described.

Carbohydrate metabolism and de novo lipogenesis in human obesity.

Respiratory exchange was measured during 14 consecutive hours in six lean and six obese individuals after ingestion of 500 g of dextrin maltose to investigate and compare their capacity for net de novo lipogenesis. After ingestion of the carbohydrate load, metabolic rates rose similarly in both groups but fell earlier and more rapidly in the obese. RQs also rose rapidly and remained in the range of 0.95 to 1.00 for approximately 8 h in both groups. During this time, RQ exceeded 1.00 for only short periods of time with the result that 4 +/- 1 g and 5 +/- 3 g (NS) of fat were synthesized via de novo lipogenesis in excess of concomitant fat oxidation in the lean and obese subjects, respectively. Results demonstrate that net de novo lipid synthesis from an unusually large carbohydrate load is not greater in obese than in lean individuals.

Derivation of soil-specific streaming potential electrical parameters from hydrodynamic characteristics of partially saturated soils

Water movement in unsaturated soils gives rise to measurable electrical potential differences that are related to the flow direction and volumetric fluxes, as well as to the soil properties themselves. Laboratory and field data suggest that these so-called streaming potentials may be several orders of magnitudes larger than theoretical predictions that only consider the influence of the relative permeability and electrical conductivity on the self potential (SP) data. Recent work has improved predictions somewhat by considering how the volumetric excess charge in the pore space scales with the inverse of water saturation. We present a new theoretical approach that uses the flux-averaged excess charge, not the volumetric excess charge, to predict streaming potentials. We present relationships for how this effective excess charge varies with water saturation for typical soil properties using either the water retention or the relative permeability function. We find large differences between soil types and the predictions based on the relative permeability function display the best agreement with field data. The new relationships better explain laboratory data than previous work and allow us to predict the recorded magnitudes of the streaming potentials following a rainfall event in sandy loam, whereas previous models predict values that are three orders of magnitude too small. We suggest that the strong signals in unsaturated media can be used to gain information about fluxes (including very small ones related to film flow), but also to constrain the relative permeability function, the water retention curve, and the relative electrical conductivity function.

A higher mutational burden in females supports a "female protective model" in neurodevelopmental disorders.

Increased male prevalence has been repeatedly reported in several neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs), leading to the concept of a "female protective model." We investigated the molecular basis of this sex-based difference in liability and demonstrated an excess of deleterious autosomal copy-number variants (CNVs) in females compared to males (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46, p = 8 × 10(-10)) in a cohort of 15,585 probands ascertained for NDs. In an independent autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cohort of 762 families, we found a 3-fold increase in deleterious autosomal CNVs (p = 7 × 10(-4)) and an excess of private deleterious single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) in female compared to male probands (OR = 1.34, p = 0.03). We also showed that the deleteriousness of autosomal SNVs was significantly higher in female probands (p = 0.0006). A similar bias was observed in parents of probands ascertained for NDs. Deleterious CNVs (>400 kb) were maternally inherited more often (up to 64%, p = 10(-15)) than small CNVs < 400 kb (OR = 1.45, p = 0.0003). In the ASD cohort, increased maternal transmission was also observed for deleterious CNVs and SNVs. Although ASD females showed higher mutational burden and lower cognition, the excess mutational burden remained, even after adjustment for those cognitive differences. These results strongly suggest that females have an increased etiological burden unlinked to rare deleterious variants on the X chromosome. Carefully phenotyped and genotyped cohorts will be required for identifying the symptoms, which show gender-specific liability to mutational burden.

Un problema d'excés: l'eutrofització

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. L’objectiu del treball era el de comprovar si era possible provocar un procés d'eutrofització en unes peixeres, com a simulació del procés que es dóna de forma natural en alguns llacs i basses del nostre país. Mantenint una peixera de control, en les altres dues hi provocàvem un excés de nutrients abocant fertilitzant sintètic en diferents concentracions per tal de comprovar les diferències causades per aquest procés de contaminació ambiental. Una vegada fet l'experiment, tot i que no s’ha aconseguit un alt grau d’eutrofització i per tant, no s’ha pogut demostrar moltes de les conseqüències d’aquest procés, sí que s’ha aconseguit dur a terme una contaminació i s’ha pogut observar com evoluciona un medi alterat per l’home respecte un ecosistema amb òptimes condicions. Al comparar aquest experiment amb la realitat actual s’observa que tots els canvis que han succeït a petita escala en aquests ecosistemes, en la natura, es produeixen en un major grau i amb unes conseqüències molt més adverses pels organismes.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure and thermogenesis: response to progressive carbohydrate overfeeding in man.

Short-term overfeeding with carbohydrate induced a marked stimulation of energy expenditure, amounting to 33 per cent of the excess energy intake on the 7th day of overfeeding. This value is larger than that previously reported in man. Stimulation of lipogenesis and increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system seem to be the two major mechanisms which account for the stimulation of energy expenditure during carbohydrate overfeeding.

The Role of supply constraints in multiplier analysis

Multiplier analysis based upon the information contained in Leontief's inverse is undoubtedly part of the core of the input-output methodology and numerous applications an extensions have been developed that exploit its informational content. Nonetheless there are some implicit theoretical assumptions whose implications have perhaps not been fully assessed. This is the case of the 'excess capacity' assumption. Because of this assumption resources are available as needed to adjust production to new equilibrium states. In real world applications, however, new resources are scarce and costly. Supply constraints kick in and hence resource allocation needs to take them into account to really assess the effect of government policies. Using a closed general equilibrium model that incorporates supply constraints, we perform some simple numerical exercises and proceed to derive a 'constrained' multiplier matrix that can be compared with the standard 'unrestricted' multiplier matrix. Results show that the effectiveness of expenditure policies hinges critically on whether or not supply constraints are considered.

A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease)

A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

Reactive electrophile species.

The interest in reactive electrophile species (RES) stems largely from the fact that they can have powerful biological activities. RES stimulate the expression of cell survival genes as well many other genes commonly upregulated in environmental stress and pathogenesis. RES levels must be carefully controlled in healthy cells but their formation and destruction during stress is of great interest. Unlike many 'classical' signals and hormones, RES can potentially affect gene expression at all levels by chemically reacting with nucleic acids, proteins and small molecules as well as by indirectly lowering pools of cellular reductants. Recent works involving genetic approaches have begun to provide compelling evidence that, although excess RES production can lead to cell damage, lower levels of RES may modulate the expression of cell survival genes and may actually contribute to survival during severe stress.

Manipulating keratinocyte stem cell proliferation and differentiation using RNA interference

ABSTRACT : The epidermis, the outermost compartment of the skin, is a stratified and squamous epithelium that constantly self-renews. Keratinocytes, which represent the main epidermal population, are responsible for its cohesion and barrier function. Epidermal renewal necessitates a fine equilibrium between keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation. The keratinocyte stem cell, located in the basal cell layer, is responsible for epidermal homeostasis and regeneration during the wound healing process. The transcription factor p63 structurally belongs to the p53 superfamily. It is expressed in the basal and supra-basal cell layers of stratified epithelia and is thought to be important for the renewal or the differentiation of keratinocyte stem cells (Yang et al., 1999; Mills et al., 1999). In order to better understand its function, we established an in vitro model of p63 deficient human keratinocyte stem cells using a shp63 mediated RNA interference. Knockdown of endogenous p63 induces downregulation of cell-adhesion genes as previously described (Carroll et al., 2006). Interestingly, the replating of attached p63-knockdown keratinocytes on a feeder layer results in a loss of attachment and proliferation. They are no longer clonogenic. However, if the same population are replated in a fibrin matrix, extended fibrinolysis is reported, a common process in wound healing, suggesting that p63 regulates the fibrinolytic pathway. This result was confirmed by Q-PCR and shows that the urokinase pathway, which mediates fibrinolysis, is upregulated. Altogether, these findings suggest a mechanism in which the fine tuning of p63 expression promotes attachment or release of the keratinocyte stem cell from the basement membrane by inducing genes of adhesion and/or of fibrinolysis. This mechanism may be important for epidermal self-renewal, differentiation as well as wound healing. Its misregulation may be partly responsible for the p63 knockout phenotype. The downregulation of p63 also induces a decrease in LEKTI expression. LEKTI (lymphoepithelial Kazal-type serine protease inhibitor) is a serine protease inhibitor encoded by the Spink5 gene. It is expressed and secreted in the uppermost differentiated layers of stratified epithelia and plays a role in the desquamation process. When this gene is disrupted, humans develop the Netherton syndrome (Chavanas et al., 2000b). It is a dermatosis characterized by hair dysplasias, ichtyosiform erythroderma and impairment in epidermal barrier function promoting inflammation similarly as in psoriasis with inflammatory infiltrate in excess. TNFα (tumor necrosis factor alpha) and EDA1 (ectodysplasin A1) are two transmembraneprecursors that belong to the TNF superfamily, which is involved in immune and inflammation regulation (Smahi et al., 2002). We suggest that the secreted serine protease inhibitor LEKTI plays a role in the regulation of TNFα and EDA1 precursor cleavage and absence of LEKTI induces excess of inflammation. To investigate this hypothesis, we induced downregulation of Spink5 expression in rat keratinocyte stem cells by using a shSpink5 mediated RNA interference approach. Interestingly, expression of TNFα and EDA1 is modified after knockdown of Spink5 by Q-PCR. Moreover, downregulation of Spink5 induces loss of cohesiveness between keratinocytes and colonies adopt a scattered phenotype. Altogether, these preliminary data suggest that downregulation of LEKTI may play a role in the inflammatory response in Netherton syndrome patients, by regulating TNFα expression.

Energy expenditure by doubly labeled water: validation in humans and proposed calculation.

To further validate the doubly labeled water method for measurement of CO2 production and energy expenditure in humans, we compared it with near-continuous respiratory gas exchange in nine healthy young adult males. Subjects were housed in a respiratory chamber for 4 days. Each received 2H2(18)O at either a low (n = 6) or a moderate (n = 3) isotope dose. Low and moderate doses produced initial 2H enrichments of 5 and 10 X 10(-3) atom percent excess, respectively, and initial 18O enrichments of 2 and 2.5 X 10(-2) atom percent excess, respectively. Total body water was calculated from isotope dilution in saliva collected at 4 and 5 h after the dose. CO2 production was calculated by the two-point method using the isotopic enrichments of urines collected just before each subject entered and left the chamber. Isotope enrichments relative to predose samples were measured by isotope ratio mass spectrometry. At low isotope dose, doubly labeled water overestimated average daily energy expenditure by 8 +/- 9% (SD) (range -7 to 22%). At moderate dose the difference was reduced to +4 +/- 5% (range 0-9%). The isotope elimination curves for 2H and 18O from serial urines collected from one of the subjects showed expected diurnal variations but were otherwise quite smooth. The overestimate may be due to approximations in the corrections for isotope fractionation and isotope dilution. An alternative approach to the corrections is presented that reduces the overestimate to 1%.

Exercise prevents fructose-induced hypertriglyceridemia in healthy young subjects.

Excess fructose intake causes hypertriglyceridemia and hepatic insulin resistance in sedentary humans. Since exercise improves insulin sensitivity in insulin-resistant patients, we hypothesized that it would also prevent fructose-induced hypertriglyceridemia. This study was therefore designed to evaluate the effects of exercise on circulating lipids in healthy subjects fed a weight-maintenance, high-fructose diet. Eight healthy males were studied on three occasions after 4 days of 1) a diet low in fructose and no exercise (C), 2) a diet with 30% fructose and no exercise (HFr), or 3) a diet with 30% fructose and moderate aerobic exercise (HFrEx). On all three occasions, a 9-h oral [(13)C]-labeled fructose loading test was performed on the fifth day to measure [(13)C]palmitate in triglyceride-rich lipoprotein (TRL)-triglycerides (TG). Compared with C, HFr significantly increased fasting glucose, total TG, TRL-TG concentrations, and apolipoprotein (apo)B48 concentrations as well as postfructose glucose, total TG, TRL-TG, and [(13)C]palmitate in TRL-TG. HFrEx completely normalized fasting and postfructose TG, TRL-TG, and [(13)C]palmitate concentration in TRL-TG and apoB48 concentrations. In addition, it increased lipid oxidation and plasma nonesterified fatty acid concentrations compared with HFr. These data indicate that exercise prevents the dyslipidemia induced by high fructose intake independently of energy balance.