Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in agricultural soils and maize tissues from selected districts in Tanzania

A field survey was conducted to investigate the contamination of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) arsenic (As), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), and nickel (Ni) in Tanzanian agricultural soils and to evaluate their uptake and translocation in maize as proxy to the safety of maize used for human and animal consumption. Soils and maize tissues were sampled from 40 farms in Tanzania and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry in the United Kingdom. The results showed high levels of PTEs in both soils and maize tissues above the recommended limits. Nickel levels of up to 34.4 and 56.9mgkg(-1) respectively were found in some maize shoots and grains from several districts. Also, high Pb levels >0.2mgkg(-1) were found in some grains. The grains and shoots with high levels of Ni and Pb are unfit for human and animal consumption. Concentrations of individual elements in maize tissues and soils did not correlate and showed differences in uptake and translocation. However, Ni showed a more efficient transfer from soils to shoots than As, Pb and Cr. Transfer of Cr and Ni from shoots to grains was higher than other elements, implying that whatever amount is assimilated in maize shoots is efficiently mobilized and transferred to grains. Thus, the study recommended to the public to stop consuming and feeding their animals maize with high levels of PTEs for their safety.

Downstream changes in the transport and storage of sediment-associated contaminants (P, Cr and PCBs) in agricultural and industrialized drainage basins

Samples of suspended, floodplain and channel bed sediment have been used to examine downstream changes in ediment-associated contaminant transport and storage in contrasting rivers in Yorkshire, UK. The concentrations of hosphorus, chromium and selected PCBs associated with sediment in the River Aire and its main tributary, the River Calder, which drain an urbanized and industrialized catchment, are considerably higher than those in the relatively unpolluted River Swale, which drains an agricultural catchment. Concentrations of sediment-associated contaminants in the Aire/Calder system increase downstream, reflecting the location of urban and industrial areas in the middle and lower reaches, and the location of point source inputs, such as sewage treatment works. The ontaminant concentrations associated with floodplain and channel bed sediment in the Rivers Aire and Calder are high, particularly in the lower reaches. This, combined with measurements of sediment storage on the floodplain and channel bed, indicate that significant storage of sediment-associated contaminants occurs in the Rivers Aire and Calder.

The global pharmacy workforce: a systematic review of the literature.

Hawthorne N, Anderson C. (2009) The global pharmacy workforce: a systematic review of the literature. Human Resources for Health, 7:48.

A review of scientific literature on inherited disorders in domestic horse breeds

The full extent to which inherited disorders occur in different breeds of domestic horse (Equus caballus) has not been previously been investigated. A systematic search was carried out to review scientific literature on inherited disorders in domestic horse breeds and examine patterns in potentially inherited disorders. A two-part search was conducted: (i) electronic bibliographic databases for published studies; and (ii) existing online databases of inherited disorders in animals. A total of 230 papers were identified, discussing 102 inherited disorders in the horse. Few cases (17) were found in which disorders were reported to have a direct link to a conformational or phenotypic trait. Forty-nine breeds of domestic horse were described as being predisposed to one or more inherited disorders, but such predispositions did not distinguish between genetic or environmental causes. There were few patterns in the number of disorders to which breeds were reportedly predisposed or in the extent to which disorders were researched. The structure and grouping of disorders presented here could assist with standardisation in the terminology used for describing inherited disorders. © 2012 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare The Old School.

Isolation and characterization of a novel simazine-degrading bacterium from agricultural soil of central Chile, Pseudomonas sp MHP41

s-Triazine herbicides are used extensively in South America in agriculture and forestry. In this study, a bacterium designated as strain MHP41, capable of degrading simazine and atrazine, was isolated from agricultural soil in the Quillota valley, central Chile. Strain MHP41 is able to grow in minimal medium, using simazine as the sole nitrogen source. In this medium, the bacterium exhibited a growth rate of mu = 0.10 h(-1), yielding a high biomass of 4.2 x 10(8) CFU mL(-1). Resting cells of strain MHP41 degrade more than 80% of simazine within 60 min. The atzA, atzB, atzC, atzD, atzE and atzF genes encoding the enzymes of the simazine upper and lower pathways were detected in strain MHP41. The motile Gram-negative bacterium was identified as a Pseudomonas sp., based on the Biolog microplate system and comparative sequence analyses of the 16S rRNA gene. Amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis allowed the differentiation of strain MHP41 from Pseudomonas sp. ADP. The comparative 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses suggested that strain MHP41 is closely related to Pseudomonas nitroreducens and Pseudomonas multiresinovorans. This is the first s-triazine-degrading bacterium isolated in South America. Strain MHP41 is a potential biocatalyst for the remediation of s-triazine-contaminated environments.