983 resultados para Accident risk forecasting.


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Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.

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AIMS: Increases in inflammatory markers, hepatic enzymes and physical inactivity are associated with the development of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). We examined whether inflammatory markers and hepatic enzymes are correlated with traditional risk factors for MetS and studied the effects of resistance training (RT) on these emerging risk factors in individuals with a high number of metabolic risk factors (HiMF, 2.9 +/- 0.8) and those with a low number of metabolic risk factors (LoMF, 0.5 +/- 0.5). METHODS: Twenty-eight men and 27 women aged 50.8 +/- 6.5 years (mean +/- sd) participated in the study. Participants were randomized to four groups, HiMF training (HiMFT), HiMF control (HiMFC), LoMF training (LoMFT) and LoMF control (LoMFC). Before and after 10 weeks of RT [3 days/week, seven exercises, three sets with intensity gradually increased from 40-50% of one repetition maximum (1RM) to 75-85% of 1RM], blood samples were obtained for the measurement of pro-inflammatory cytokines, C-reactive protein (CRP), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT). RESULTS: At baseline, HiMF had higher interleukin-6 (33.9%), CRP (57.1%), GGT (45.2%) and ALT (40.6%) levels, compared with LoMF (all P < 0.05). CRP, GGT and ALT correlated with the number of risk factors (r = 0.48, 0.51 and 0.57, respectively, all P < 0.01) and with other anthropometric and clinical measures (r range from 0.26 to 0.60, P < 0.05). RT did not significantly alter inflammatory markers or hepatic enzymes (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: HiMF was associated with increased inflammatory markers and hepatic enzyme concentrations. RT did not reduce inflammatory markers and hepatic enzymes in individuals with HiMF.

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This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis, where risks are detected during process execution. The approach has been realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of negative process states (faults) to eventuate. Both historical and current process execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a business process management system to prompt the results to process administrators who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented on top of the YAWL system, and evaluated through performance measurements and usability tests with students. The results show that risk conditions can be computed efficiently and that the approach is perceived as useful by the participants in the tests.

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Low-cost level crossings are often criticized as being unsafe. Does a SIL (safety integrity level) rating make the railway crossing any safer? This paper discusses how a supporting argument might be made for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity and issues such as risk tolerability and derivation of tolerable hazard rates for system-level hazards. As part of the design of such systems according to fail-safe principles, the paper considers the assumptions around the pre-defined safe states of existing warning devices and how human factors issues around such states can give rise to additional hazards.

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Air pollution has significant impacts on both the environment and human health. Therefore, urban areas have received ever growing attention, because they not only have the highest concentrations of air pollutants, but they also have the highest human population. In modern societies, urban air quality (UAQ) is routinely evaluated and local authorities provide regular reports to the public about current UAQ levels. Both local and international authorities also recommended that some air pollutant concentrations remain below a certain level, with the aim of reducing emissions and improving the air quality, both in urban areas and on a more regional scale. In some countries, protocols aimed at reducing emissions have come in force as a result of international agreements.

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This paper reports research into teacher-­‐librarians’ perceptions of using social media and Web 2.0 in teaching and learning. A pilot study was conducted with teacher-­‐librarians in five government schools and five private schools in southeast Queensland. The findings revealed that there was a strong digital divide between government schools and private schools, with government schools suffering severe restrictions on the use of social media and Web 2.0, leading to an unsophisticated use of these technologies. It is argued that internet ‘over-­‐ blocking’ may lead to government school students not being empowered to manage risks in an open internet environment. Furthermore, their use of information for academic and recreational learning may be compromised. This has implications particularly for low socioeconomic students, leading to further inequity in the process and outcomes of Australian education.

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Background: Decreased ability to perform Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) during hospitalisation has negative consequences for patients and health service delivery. Objective: To develop an Index to stratify patients at lower and higher risk of a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge. Design: Prospective two cohort study comprising a derivation (n=389; mean age 82.3 years; SD� 7.1) and a validation cohort (n=153; mean age 81.5 years; SD� 6.1). Patients and setting: General medical patients aged = 70 years admitted to three university-affiliated acute care hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Measurement and main results: The short ADL Scale was used to identify a significant decline in ability to perform ADLs from premorbid to discharge. In the derivation cohort, 77 patients (19.8%) experienced a significant decline. Four significant factors were identified for patients independent at baseline: 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with bathing'; 'difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)'; 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework'; a 'history of experiencing at least one fall in the previous 90 days prior to hospital admission' in addition to 'independent at baseline', which was protective against decline at discharge. 'Difficulty understanding others (frequently or all the time)' and 'requiring moderate assistance to being totally dependent on others with performing housework' were also predictors for patients dependent in ADLs at baseline. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV), and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the DADLD dichotomised risk scores were: 83.1% (95% CI 72.8; 90.7); 60.5% (95% CI 54.8; 65.9); 34.2% (95% CI 27.5; 41.5); 93.5% (95% CI 89.2; 96.5). In the validation cohort, 47 patients (30.7%) experienced a significant decline. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the DADLD were: 78.7% (95% CI 64.3; 89.3); 69.8% (95% CI 60.1, 78.3); 53.6% (95% CI 41.2; 65.7); 88.1% (95% CI 79.2; 94.1). Conclusions: The DADLD Index is a useful tool for identifying patients at higher risk of decline in ability to perform ADLs at discharge.

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Australian and international evidence suggests that, in the work-related driving context, road crashes account for a substantial number of occupational incidents. In the attempt to reduce injury and improve safety, organisations may implement an array of strategies and interventions ranging from policy development and implementation, vehicle selection and incident monitoring through to education and awareness-raising. This conceptual paper discusses aspects relating to the latter collection of interventions and, in particular, the role, and some key considerations with respect to the content and dissemination, of advertising campaigns and educational awareness workshops. In relation to advertising campaigns, this paper discusses how some of the overarching principles associated with advertising in the broader general community road safety strategy also apply within the work-related road safety context. Specifically, advertising campaigns/materials should be viewed as a key component within a dedicated organisational approach to road (driver) safety. This dedicated approach would need to comprise of a number, and varied array, of strategies. In addition, the content of, and medium/s (e.g., posters) by which to deliver such advertising campaigns, cannot be addressed by a one-size-fits all approach but, rather, requires careful consideration of the needs as well as characteristics of specific organisations and their driver fleet. The paper provides a summary of some key considerations when devising an advertising campaign, including the nature of campaign/message content as well as the processes by which to devise and refine such content. In relation to driver education awareness workshops, this paper outlines the key considerations for delivering a series of workshops specifically aimed at occupational driving within the organisational context. A case study approach will be utilised to demonstrate the manner in which educational awareness workshops can compliment successful advertising campaigns promoting safer work related driving through better risk management practice. Research underpinning the development of driver behaviour modification tools incorporated within the workshops will also be discussed along with the mechanisms utilised to encourage improvements in driver monitoring and behaviour. In an effort to assist organisations with their continual search for cost-effective approaches which may, ultimately, contribute to improvements in driver behaviour and safety, the current paper offers some clear and practical suggestions in relation to the development and dissemination of two types of interventions, advertising campaigns and education awareness workshops.

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One of the primary desired capabilities of any future air traffic separation management system is the ability to provide early conflict detection and resolution effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we consider the risk of conflict as a primary measurement to be used for early conflict detection. This paper focuses on developing a novel approach to assess the impact of different measurement uncertainty models on the estimated risk of conflict. The measurement uncertainty model can be used to represent different sensor accuracy and sensor choices. Our study demonstrates the value of modelling measurement uncertainty in the conflict risk estimation problem and presents techniques providing a means of assessing sensor requirements to achieve desired conflict detection performance.

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The growing national and international awareness of the increased representation of serious injuries and fatalities in rural and remote areas is the focus of this paper. Australia was one of the earliest countries to try to address this issue with a targeted national action plan in 1996. This was an important document but the most recent national plan fails to dedicate attention to developing countermeasures for the particular problems of improving road safety in these regions. The findings of a major program of research in Northern Queensland are discussed to stimulate interest and research into potential countermeasures. Specifically, the need to monitor clusters of crashes as a focus for intervention and local ownership is advocated. Taking action towards a national reduction of speed limits on rural roads and investment in proactive research based trials of drink driving countermeasures such as courtesy buses is strongly advocated.

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Despite the presence of many regulations governing the operation of heavy vehicles and supply chains in Australia, the truck driving sector continues to have the highest incidence of fatal injuries compared to all other industries. The working environment has been the focus of attention by safety researchers during the past few decades, with particular consideration been given to the concept ‘safety culture’ and how to maintain, modify and advance responses to occupational risk. One important aspect of the heavy industry which sets it apart is the existence of cultural or sub-cultural influences at an industry wide and occupation-specific level rather than organisational level. This paper reports on the findings of stakeholder’s perceptions of the influences of power and control, and culture on industry safety. In-depth structured interviews were conducted during 2011 with Australian industry stakeholders (n=31). The questioning surrounded decision-making processes with regards to identifying risks, self-monitoring and reducing risky activities; as well as how power-affected relationships may influence the operational performance of supply chains and impacts on driver safety. One of the most significant findings from these interviews relates to the notion of power. The perception that the ‘Customer is King’ was widely viewed, with the majority of stakeholders believing that there exists a ‘master slave mentality’ in the industry. There appears to be great frustration in the industry as to the apparent immunity of customers (particularly retail supply chains) to their responsibilities. There was also a strong perception that the customer holds the balance of power by covertly employing remuneration-related incentives and pressures. Smaller trucking companies are perceived as being more vulnerable to the pressure of customer expectations.

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Background: Critically ill patients are at high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development due to their high acuity and the invasive nature of the multiple interventions and therapies they receive. With reported incidence rates of PrU development in the adult critical care population as high as 56%, the identification of patients at high risk of PrU development is essential. This paper will explore the association between PrU development and risk factors. It will also explore PrU development and the use of risk assessment scales for critically ill patients in adult intensive care units. Method: A literature search from 2000 to 2012 using the CINHAL, Cochrane Library, EBSCOHost, Medline (via EBSCOHost), PubMed, ProQuest and Google Scholar databases was conducted. Key words used were: pressure ulcer/s; pressure sore/s; decubitus ulcer/s; bed sore/s; critical care; intensive care; critical illness; prevalence; incidence; prevention; management; risk factor; risk assessment scale. Results: Nineteen articles were included in this review; eight studies addressing PrU risk factors, eight studies addressing risk assessment scales and three studies overlapping both. Results from the studies reviewed identified 28 intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors which may lead to PrU development. Development of a risk factor prediction model in this patient population, although beneficial, appears problematic due to many issues such as diverse diagnoses and subsequent patient needs. Additionally, several risk assessment instruments have been developed for early screening of patients at higher risk of developing PrU in the ICU. No existing risk assessment scales are valid for identification high risk critically ill patient,with the majority of scales potentially over-predicting patients at risk for PrU development. Conclusion: Research studies to inform the risk factors for potential pressure ulcer development are inconsistent. Additionally, there is no consistent or clear evidence which demonstrates any scale to better or more effective than another when used to identify the patients at risk for PrU development. Furthermore robust research is needed to identify the risk factors and develop valid scales for measuring the risk of PrU development in ICU.

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Motivated by growing considerations of the scale, severity and risks associated with human exposure to indoor particulate matter, this work reviewed existing literature to: (i) identify state-of-the-art experimental techniques used for personal exposure assessment; (ii) compare exposure levels reported for domestic/school settings in different countries (excluding exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and particulate matter from biomass cooking in developing countries); (iii) assess the contribution of outdoor background vs indoor sources to personal exposure; and (iv) examine scientific understanding of the risks posed by personal exposure to indoor aerosols. Limited studies assessing integrated daily residential exposure to just one particle size fraction, ultrafine particles, show that the contribution of indoor sources ranged from 19-76%. This indicates a strong dependence on resident activities, source events and site specificity, and highlights the importance of indoor sources for total personal exposure. Further, it was assessed that 10-30% of the total burden-of-disease from particulate matter exposure was due to indoor generated particles, signifying that indoor environments are likely to be a dominant environmental factor affecting human health. However, due to challenges associated with conducting epidemiological assessments, the role of indoor generated particles has not been fully acknowledged, and improved exposure/risk assessment methods are still needed, together with a serious focus on exposure control.

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Background: There is a well developed literature on research investigating the relationship between various driving behaviours and road crash involvement. However, this research has predominantly been conducted in developed economies dominated by western types of cultural environments. To date no research has been published that has empirically investigated this relationship within the context of the emerging economies such as Oman. Objective: The present study aims to investigate driving behaviour as indexed in the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) among a group of Omani university students and staff. Methods: A convenience non-probability self- selection sampling approach was utilized with Omani university students and staff. Results: A total of 1003 Omani students (n= 632) and staff (n=371) participated in the survey. Factor analysis of the BDQ revealed four main factors that were errors, speeding violation, lapses and aggressive violation. In the multivariate logistic backward regression analysis, the following factors were identified as significant predictors of being involved in causing at least one crash: driving experience, history of offences and two DBQ components i.e. errors and aggressive violation. Conclusion: This study indicates that errors and aggressive violation of the traffic regulations as well as history of having traffic offences are major risk factors for road traffic crashes among the sample. While previous international research has demonstrated that speeding is a primary cause of crashing, in the current context, the results indicate that an array of factors is associated with crashes. Further research using more rigorous methodology is warranted to inform the development of road safety countermeasures in Oman that improves overall traffic safety culture.

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Driver distraction has recently been defined by Regan as "the diversion of attention away from activities critical for safe driving toward a competing activity, which may result in insufficient or no attention to activities critical for safe driving (Regan, Hallett & Gordon, 2011, p.1780)". One source of distraction is in-vehicle devices, even though they might provide other benefits, e.g. navigation systems. Currently, eco-driving systems have been growing rapidly in popularity. These systems send messages to drivers so that driving performance can be improved in terms of fuel efficiency. However, there remain unanswered questions about whether eco-driving systems endanger drivers by distracting them. In this research, the CARRS-Q advanced driving simulator was used in order to provide safety for participants and meanwhile simulate real world driving. The distraction effects of tasks involving three different in-vehicle systems were investigated: changing a CD, entering a five digit number as a part of navigation task and responding to an eco-driving task. Driving in these scenarios was compared with driving in the absence of these distractions, and while drivers engaged in critical manoeuvres. In order to account for practice effects, the same scenarios were duplicated on a second day. The three in-vehicle systems were not the exact facsimiles of any particular existing system, but were designed to have similar characteristics to those of system available. In general, the results show that drivers’ mental workloads are significantly higher in navigation and CD changing scenarios in comparison to the two other scenarios, which implies that these two tasks impose more visual/manual and cognitive demands. However, eco-driving mental workload is still high enough to be called marginally significant (p ~ .05) across manoeuvres. Similarly, event detection tasks show that drivers miss significantly more events in the navigation and CD changing scenarios in comparison to both the baseline and eco-driving scenario across manoeuvres. Analysis of the practice effect shows that drivers’ baseline scenario and navigation scenario exhibit significantly less demand on the second day. However, the number of missed events across manoeuvres confirmed that drivers can detect significantly more events on the second day for all scenarios. Distraction was also examined separately for five groups of manoeuvres (straight, lane changing, overtaking, braking for intersections and braking for roundabouts), in two locations for each condition. Repeated measures mixed ANOVA results show that reading an eco-driving message can potentially impair driving performance. When comparing the three in–vehicle distractions tested, attending to an eco-driving message is similar in effect to the CD changing task. The navigation task degraded driver performance much more than these other sources of distraction. In lane changing manoeuvres, drivers’ missed response counts degraded when they engaged in reading eco-driving messages at the first location. However, drivers’ event detection abilities deteriorated less at the second lane changing location. In baseline manoeuvres (driving straight), participants’ mean minimum speed degraded more in the CD changing scenario. Drivers’ lateral position shifted more in both CD changing and navigation tasks in comparison with both eco-driving and baseline scenarios, so they were more visually distracting. Participants were better at event detection in baseline manoeuvres in comparison with other manoeuvres. When approaching an intersection, the navigation task caused more events to be missed by participants, whereas eco-driving messages seemed to make drivers less distracted. The eco-driving message scenario was significantly less distracting than the navigation system scenario (fewer missed responses) when participants commenced braking for roundabouts. To sum up, in spite of the finding that two other in-vehicle tasks are more distracting than the eco-driving task, the results indicate that even reading a simple message while driving could potentially lead to missing an important event, especially when executing critical manoeuvres. This suggests that in-vehicle eco-driving systems have the potential to contribute to increased crash risk through distraction. However, there is some evidence of a practice effect which suggests that future research should focus on performance with habitual rather than novel tasks. It is recommended that eco-driving messages be delivered to drivers off-line when possible.