What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Long-Term Survival (>25 Years) of Deceased Donor Kidney Transplant Recipients: a Single-Center Experience

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this preliminary work is to analyze the clinical features of 52 patients with a functional transplanted kidney for >25 years (all first transplant and all deceased donor recipients) and to compare with a similar though more complete study from Hôpital Necker-Paris 2012. METHODS: The mean graft survival at 25 years is 12.7% and at 30 years is 10%. The actual mean serum creatinine concentration is 1.3 mg/L. We analyzed recipient age (mean, 35.9 years) and gender (29 men and 23 women). Donor age was 26.7 ± 10.3 years. Seven patients (13.4%) were transplanted with 1 HLA mismatch, 42.3% with 2 mismatches, and 44.2% with 3 mismatches. Mean cold ischemia time was 15.45 ± 7.7 hours. Of the recipients, 76% had immediate graft function; 38% experienced 1 acute rejection episode and 4 patients had 2 rejection crises. The initial immunosuppressive regimen was azathioprine (AZA) + prednisolone (Pred) in 14 patients, cyclosporin (CSA) + Pred in 13 patients, and CSA + AZA + Pred in 25 patients. Of these patients, 19% maintained their initial regimen, and 54% (28 patients) were very stable on a mixed CSA regimen for >25 years. RESULTS: We present the major complications (diabetes, neoplasia, and hepatitis C virus positivity). CONCLUSION: Our results in deceased donor kidney recipients for >25 years are similar to the mixed population (deceased donors and living donors) presented by the Necker group, although 54% of our patients remain on CSA immunosuppression, contradicting the idea that its use is not compatible with good long-term kidney function in transplant recipients.

Does direct cash flow presentation help in predicting future operating cash flow?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Inflation forecasts using the tips yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Predicting GDP growth in the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Impairment in the mortagage loan portfolio: The example of Banco Popular portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on the term structure of interest rates

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Growth and unemployment: understanding Okun's law for Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Molecular evidence of mother-to-child transmission of HTLV-IIc in the Kararao Village (Kayapo) in the Amazon Region of Brazil

Blood samples from native Indians in the Kararao village (Kayapo), were analysed using serological and molecular methods to characterize infection and analyse transmission of HTLV-II. Specific reactivity was observed in 3/26 individuals, of which two samples were from a mother and child. RFLP analysis of the pX and env regions confirmed HTLV-II infection. Nucleotide sequence of the 5' LTR segment and phylogenetic analysis showed a high similarity (98%) between the three samples and prototype HTLV-IIa (Mot), and confirmed the occurrence of the HTLV-IIc subtype. There was a high genetic similarity (99.9%) between the mother and child samples and the only difference was a deletion of two nucleotides (TC) in the mother sequence. Previous epidemiological studies among native Indians from Brazil have provided evidence of intrafamilial and vertical transmission of HTLV-IIc. The present study now provides molecular evidence of mother-to-child transmission of HTLV-IIc, a mechanism that is in large part responsible for the endemicity of HTLV in these relatively closed populations. Although the actual route of transmission is unknown, breast feeding would appear to be most likely.

Viral etiology of acute respiratory infections among children in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

Although acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a major cause of child morbidity and mortality in Southern Brazil, little information is available on their seasonality and viral etiology. This study was conducted on children under 5 years of age with ARI to assess viral etiology in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, from 1990 to 1992. A total of 862 nasopharyngeal secretion (NPS) samples were tested using indirect immunofluorescence. The results showed that 316 (36.6%) NPS samples were positive: 26.2% for RSV, 6% for adenovirus, 1.7% for influenzaviruses, 1.5% for parainfluenzaviruses, and 1.2% for mixed infection. The mean viral prevalence rates in out-patient services, emergency wards, and in-patient hospital wards were 26.7%, 53% and 42.3%, respectively. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and adenovirus accounted for 91.4 % of the viral diagnoses. RSV was more frequent in children under one year of age at the three levels of health care and was prevalent in infants under six months. Adenovirus was the most prevalent pathogen in hospitalized children, in 1992. Influenza A virus showed an increased prevalence with age among out-patient children. This study shows the annual occurence of viral respiratory infections in the coldest months, with a significant annual variation in the frequency of RSV infection.

Nosocomial Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission among healthcare students in a high incidence region, in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo

This open comparative study for evaluating hypersensitivity to tuberculin among medical students (n=441), nursing students (n=178) and economics students (n=230) in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, had the aim of assessing whether the prevalence of positive tuberculin tests among healthcare students could be used as a sentinel event for nosocomial transmission in localities with high endemicity. There was a significant change in the frequency of purified protein derivative reactivity in the nursing students (20. 3%) and medical students (18. 4%), in comparison with the economics students (6%) (p <0. 001). As expected, the medical and nursing students had more knowledge about tuberculosis than did the economics students (p <0. 001). Our data suggest that the incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among nursing and medical students in our region, which has high endemicity of tuberculosis, does not differ from what is found in low-incidence countries. These data reinforce the need for implementing biosafety programs for this target population.

Acute Chagas disease outbreak associated with oral transmission

Seven individuals living in a town in the Southwest of Bahia developed sudden signs of cardiac and systemic impairment, with lethality of 28.6%. Serological tests were positive at least in one test in the five patients examined. Forty percent of the Triatoma sordida mynphs found inside or around Trypanosoma cruzi were found by blood culturig in there out five cases the homes of these cases were positive for Trypanosoma cruzi. Transmission probably occurred through consumption of water contaminated with triatomine feces. These findings emphasize the necessity to evaluation the importance of vectors like Triatoma sordida in maintaining the endemicity of this disease.

Prevalence of hepatitis A virus infection: the paradoxical example of isolated communities in the western Brazilian Amazon region

This study evaluated the prevalence of hepatitis A virus infection in the rural area of Lábrea, in the western Brazilian Amazon region. Communities and households were selected randomly. Serum samples were analyzed by means of the immunoenzymatic method for the presence of total antibodies against HAV. The study included 1,499 individuals. The prevalence of anti-HAV was 74.6% (95% CI 72.3-76.8). Univariate analysis showed associations with age (chi-square for linear trend = 496.003, p < 0.001), presence of outside toilet (p < 0.001), history of hepatitis (p < 0.001) and family history of hepatitis (p = 0.05). After adjusting for age, HAV infection also showed an association with the number of people in the family (p = 0.03). The overall prevalence rates were high, but not more than 60% of the children under the age of ten years had already been infected. Very high prevalence was detected only within older cohorts, thus paradoxically defining this as a region with intermediate endemicity, even under the conditions of poverty encountered.

Epidemiological pattern of leprosy in an endemic area of North-East Brazil, 1996-2005: the supporting role of a Nongovernmental Organization

In an endemic area of North-East Brazil (the town of Picos, State of Piauí), a nongovernmental organization (NGO) supported the activity against leprosy in connection with governmental health organizations and local agents. The indicators of leprosy elimination were compared over time (within Picos) and across space (Picos versus Piauí). The case detection rate, above 8 per 10,000 people in the last two years of observation, increased over time in Picos (p=0.010). This finding could be due to active detection activities rather than expanding endemicity, as suggested by the reduction in leprosy in children (p=0.053) and the decrease in the proportion of new cases with grade 2 disability (p<0.001). These indicators showed a more favorable time trend in the city than in the State, suggesting that NGO activity was supportive in the battle towards leprosy control.

American tripanosomiasis: a study on the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma cruzi-like organisms in wild rodents in San Luis province, Argentina

INTRODUCTION: Chagas disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi. Wild and perianthropic mammals maintain the infection/transmission cycle, both in their natural habitat and in the peridomestic area. The aim of this paper was to present the results from a study on wild rodents in the central and northern regions of San Luis province, Argentina, in order to evaluate the prevalence of this infection. METHODS: Sherman traps were set up in capture areas located between latitudes 32º and 33º S, and longitudes 65º and 66º W. The captured rodents were taxonomically identified and hemoflagellates were isolated. Morphological, biometric and molecular studies and in vitro cultures were performed. Infection of laboratory animals and histological examination of the cardiac muscle and inoculation area were also carried out. Parasites were detected in circulating blood in Calomys musculinus, Graomys griseoflavus, Phyllotis darwini and Akodon molinae. The parasites were identified using biological criteria. Molecular PCR studies were performed on some isolates, which confirmed the characterization of these hemoflagellates as Trypanosoma cruzi. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Forty-four percent of the 25 isolates were identified as Trypanosoma cruzi, and the remaining 56% as Trypanosoma cruzi-like. These findings provide evidence that wild rats infected with Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma cruzi-like organisms are important in areas of low endemicity.