A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality

It is now accepted that some human-induced climate change is unavoidable. Potential impacts on water supply have received much attention, but relatively little is known about the concomitant changes in water quality. Projected changes in air temperature and rainfall could affect river flows and, hence, the mobility and dilution of contaminants. Increased water temperatures will affect chemical reaction kinetics and, combined with deteriorations in quality, freshwater ecological status. With increased flows there will be changes in stream power and, hence, sediment loads with the potential to alter the morphology of rivers and the transfer of sediments to lakes, thereby impacting freshwater habitats in both lake and stream systems. This paper reviews such impacts through the lens of UK surface water quality. Widely accepted climate change scenarios suggest more frequent droughts in summer, as well as flash-flooding, leading to uncontrolled discharges from urban areas to receiving water courses and estuaries. Invasion by alien species is highly likely, as is migration of species within the UK adapting to changing temperatures and flow regimes. Lower flows, reduced velocities and, hence, higher water residence times in rivers and lakes will enhance the potential for toxic algal blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Upland streams could experience increased dissolved organic carbon and colour levels, requiring action at water treatment plants to prevent toxic by-products entering public water supplies. Storms that terminate drought periods will flush nutrients from urban and rural areas or generate acid pulses in acidified upland catchments. Policy responses to climate change, such as the growth of bio-fuels or emission controls, will further impact freshwater quality.

A field study of factors influencing the concentrations of a traffic-related pollutant in the vicinity of a complex urban junction

The paper describes a field study focused on the dispersion of a traffic-related pollutant within an area close to a busy intersection between two street canyons in Central London. Simultaneous measurements of airflow, traffic flow and carbon monoxide concentrations ([CO]) are used to explore the causes of spatial variability in [CO] over a full range of background wind directions. Depending on the roof-top wind direction, evidence of both flow channelling and recirculation regimes were identified from data collected within the main canyon and the intersection. However, at the intersection, the merging of channelled flows from the canyons increased the flow complexity and turbulence intensity. These features, coupled with the close proximity of nearby queuing traffic in several directions, led to the highest overall time-average measured [CO] occurring at the intersection. Within the main street canyon, the data supported the presence of a helical flow regime for oblique roof-top flows, leading to increased [CO] on the canyon leeward side. Predominant wind directions led to some locations having significantly higher diurnal average [CO] due to being mostly on the canyon leeward side during the study period. For all locations, small changes in the background wind direction could cause large changes in the in-street mean wind angle and local turbulence intensity, implying that dispersion mechanisms would be highly sensitive to small changes in above roof flows. During peak traffic flow periods, concentrations within parallel side streets were approximately four times lower than within the main canyon and intersection which has implications for controlling personal exposure. Overall, the results illustrate that pollutant concentrations can be highly spatially variable over even short distances within complex urban geometries, and that synoptic wind patterns, traffic queue location and building topologies all play a role in determining where pollutant hot spots occur.

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

"Ever-growing Amman", Jordan: Urban expansion, social polarisation and contemporary urban planning issues

Amman the primate capital city of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan currently has a population in excess of 2 million, but in 1924 it consisted of little more than a collection of dwellings and some 2000-3000 inhabitants. The present paper sets out to document and explain the phenomenal expansion of "ever-growing Amman". The physical geography of the urban region and the early growth of the city are considered at the outset and this leads directly to consideration of the highly polarised social structuring that characterises contemporary Amman. In doing this, original data derived from the recent Greater Amman Municipality's Geographical Information System are presented. In this respect, the essential modernity of the city is exemplified. The employment and industrial bases of the city and a range of pressing contemporary issues are then considered, including transport and congestion, the provision of urban water under conditions of water stress and privatisation, and urban and regional development planning for the city. The paper concludes by emphasizing the growing regional and international geopolitical salience of the city of Amman at the start of the 21st century. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remaking place and securitising space: Urban regeneration and the strategies, tactics and practices of policing in the UK

Urban regeneration programmes in the UK over the past 20 years have increasingly focused on attracting investors, middle-class shoppers and visitors by transforming places and creating new consumption spaces. Ensuring that places are safe and are seen to be safe has taken on greater salience as these flows of income are easily disrupted by changing perceptions of fear and the threat of crime. At the same time, new technologies and policing strategies and tactics have been adopted in a number of regeneration areas which seek to establish control over these new urban spaces. Policing space is increasingly about controlling human actions through design, surveillance technologies and codes of conduct and enforcement. Regeneration agencies and the police now work in partnerships to develop their strategies. At its most extreme, this can lead to the creation of zero-tolerance, or what Smith terms 'revanchist', measures aimed at particular social groups in an effort to sanitise space in the interests of capital accumulation. This paper, drawing on an examination of regeneration practices and processes in one of the UK's fastest-growing urban areas, Reading in Berkshire, assesses policing strategies and tactics in the wake of a major regeneration programme. It documents and discusses the discourses of regeneration that have developed in the town and the ways in which new urban spaces have been secured. It argues that, whilst security concerns have become embedded in institutional discourses and practices, the implementation of security measures has been mediated, in part, by the local socio-political relations in and through which they have been developed.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Water quality and ecology of the River Lee: mass balance and a review of temporal and spatial data

A regional overview of the water quality and ecology of the River Lee catchment is presented. Specifically, data describing the chemical, microbiological and macrobiological water quality and fisheries communities have been analysed, based on a division into river, sewage treatment works, fish-farm, lake and industrial samples. Nutrient enrichment and the highest concentrations of metals and micro-organics were found in the urbanised, lower reaches of the Lee and in the Lee Navigation. Average annual concentrations of metals were generally within environmental quality standards although, oil many occasions, concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc were in excess of the standards. Various organic substances (used as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chlorination by-products and industrial solvents) were widely detected in the Lee system. Concentrations of ten micro-organic substances were observed in excess of their environmental quality standards, though not in terms of annual averages. Sewage treatment works were the principal point source input of nutrients. metals and micro-organic determinands to the catchment. Diffuse nitrogen sources contributed approximately 60% and 27% of the in-stream load in the upper and lower Lee respectively, whereas approximately 60% and 20% of the in-stream phosphorus load was derived from diffuse sources in the upper and lower Lee. For metals, the most significant source was the urban runoff from North London. In reaches less affected by effluent discharges, diffuse runoff from urban and agricultural areas dominated trends. Flig-h microbiological content, observed in the River Lee particularly in urbanised reaches, was far in excess of the EC Bathing Water Directive standards. Water quality issues and degraded habitat in the lower reaches of the Lee have led to impoverished aquatic fauna but, within the mid-catchment reaches and upper agricultural tributaries, less nutrient enrichment and channel alteration has permitted more diverse aquatic fauna.

Adsorption of water vapor by bare soil in an olive grove in southern Spain

Data for water vapor adsorption and evaporation are presented for a bare soil (sandy loam, clay content 15%) in a southern Spanish olive grove. Water losses and gains were measured using eight high-precision minilysimeters, placed around an olive tree, which had been irrigated until the soil reached field capacity (similar to 0.22 m(3) m(-3)). They were subsequently left to dry for 10 days. A pair of lysimeters was situated at each of the main points of the compass (N, E, S, W), at a distance of 1 m (the inner set of lysimeters; ILS) and 2 m (the outer set of lysimeters; OLS), respectively, from the tree trunk. Distinct periods of moisture loss (evaporation) and moisture gain (vapor adsorption) could be distinguished for each day. Vapor adsorption often started just after noon and generally lasted until the (early) evening. Values of up to 0.7 mm of adsorbed water per day were measured. Adsorption was generally largest for the OLS (up to 100% more on a daily basis), and increased during the dry down. This was mainly the result of lower OLS surface soil moisture contents (period-average absolute difference similar to 0.005 m(3) m(-3)), as illustrated using various analyses employing a set of micrometeorological equations describing the exchange of water vapor between bare soil and the atmosphere. These analyses also showed that the amount of water vapor adsorbed by soils is very sensitive to changes in atmospheric forcing and surface variables. The use of empirical equations to estimate vapor adsorption is therefore not recommended.

A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

Effects of volatile fatty acid supply on their absorption and on water kinetics in the rumen of sheep sustained by intragastric infusions

Three sheep fitted with a ruminal cannula and an abomasal catheter were used to study water kinetics and absorption of VFA infused continuously into the rumen. The effects of changing VFA concentrations in the rumen by shifting VFA infusion rates were investigated in an experiment with a 3 x 3 Latin square design. On experimental days, the animals received the basal infusion rate of VFA (271 mmol/h) during the first 2 h. Each animal then received VFA at a different rate (135, 394, or 511 mmol/h) for the next 7.5 h. Using soluble markers (polyethylene glycol and Cr-EDTA), ruminal volume, liquid outflow, apparent water absorption, and VFA absorption rates were estimated. There were no significant effects of VFA infusion rate on ruminal volume and water kinetics. As the VFA infusion rate was increased, VFA concentration and osmolality in the rumen were increased and pH was decreased. There was a biphasic response of liquid outflow to changes in the total VFA concentration in the rumen, as both variables increased together up to a total VFA concentration of 80.1 mM, whereas, beyond that concentration, liquid outflow remained stable at an average rate of 407 mL/h. There were significant linear (P = 0.003) and quadratic (P = 0.001) effects of VFA infusion rate on the VFA absorption rate, confirming that VFA absorption in the rumen is mainly a concentration-dependent process. The proportion of total VFA supplied that was absorbed in the rumen was 0.845 (0.822, 0.877, and 0.910 for acetate, propionate, and butyrate, respectively). The molar proportions of acetate, propionate, and butyrate absorbed were affected by the level of VFA infusion in the rumen, indicating that this level affected to a different extent the absorption of the different acids.

Statistical design and analysis of pharmacogenetic trials

Pharmacogenetic trials investigate the effect of genotype on treatment response. When there are two or more treatment groups and two or more genetic groups, investigation of gene-treatment interactions is of key interest. However, calculation of the power to detect such interactions is complicated because this depends not only on the treatment effect size within each genetic group, but also on the number of genetic groups, the size of each genetic group, and the type of genetic effect that is both present and tested for. The scale chosen to measure the magnitude of an interaction can also be problematic, especially for the binary case. Elston et al. proposed a test for detecting the presence of gene-treatment interactions for binary responses, and gave appropriate power calculations. This paper shows how the same approach can also be used for normally distributed responses. We also propose a method for analysing and performing sample size calculations based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach. The power of the Elston et al. and GLM approaches are compared for the binary and normal case using several illustrative examples. While more sensitive to errors in model specification than the Elston et al. approach, the GLM approach is much more flexible and in many cases more powerful. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Glycogen phosphorylase inhibitors: a free energy perturbation analysis of glucopyranose spirohydantoin analogues

GP catalyzes the phosphorylation of glycogen to Glc-1-P. Because of its fundamental role in the metabolism of glycogen, GP has been the target for a systematic structure-assisted design of inhibitory compounds, which could be of value in the therapeutic treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The most potent catalytic-site inhibitor of GP identified to date is spirohydantoin of glucopyranose (hydan). In this work, we employ MD free energy simulations to calculate the relative binding affinities for GP of hydan and two spirohydantoin analogues, methyl-hydan and n-hydan, in which a hydrogen atom is replaced by a methyl- or amino group, respectively. The results are compared with the experimental relative affinities of these ligands, estimated by kinetic measurements of the ligand inhibition constants. The calculated binding affinity for methyl-hydan (relative to hydan) is 3.75 +/- 1.4 kcal/mol, in excellent agreement with the experimental value (3.6 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol). For n-hydan, the calculated value is 1.0 +/- 1.1 kcal/mol, somewhat smaller than the experimental result (2.3 +/- 0.1 kcal/mol). A free energy decomposition analysis shows that hydan makes optimum interactions with protein residues and specific water molecules in the catalytic site. In the other two ligands, structural perturbations of the active site by the additional methyl- or amino group reduce the corresponding binding affinities. The computed binding free energies are sensitive to the preference of a specific water molecule for two well-defined positions in the catalytic site. The behavior of this water is analyzed in detail, and the free energy profile for the translocation of the water between the two positions is evaluated. The results provide insights into the role of water molecules in modulating ligand binding affinities. A comparison of the interactions between a set of ligands and their surrounding groups in X-ray structures is often used in the interpretation of binding free energy differences and in guiding the design of new ligands. For the systems in this work, such an approach fails to estimate the order of relative binding strengths, in contrast to the rigorous free energy treatment.

Solid phase microextraction of volatile oxidation compounds in oil-in-water emulsions

Headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) has been used to isolate the headspace volatiles formed during oxidation of oil-in-water emulsions. Qualitative and quantitative analyses with an internal standard were performed by GC-FID. Four sample temperatures for adsorption (30, 40, 50 and 60 C) and adsorption times in the range 10-25 min were tested to determine the conditions for the volatile concentration to reach equilibrium. The optimum conditions were at 50 C for 20 min. The method was applied to monitor changes in volatile composition during oxidation of an o/w emulsion. SPME was a simple, reproducible and sensitive method for the analysis of volatile oxidation products in oil-in-water emulsions. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving quality of mother-infant relationship and infant attachment in socioeconomically deprived community in South Africa: randomised controlled trial

Objective To assess the efficacy of an intervention designed to improve the mother-infant relationship and security of infant attachment in a South African peri-urban settlement with marked adverse socioeconomic circumstances. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting Khayelitsha, a peri-urban settlement in South Africa. Participants 449 pregnant women. Interventions The intervention was delivered from late pregnancy and for six months postpartum. Women were visited in their homes by previously untrained lay community workers who provided support and guidance in parenting. The purpose of the intervention was to promote sensitive and responsive parenting and secure infant attachment to the mother. Women in the control group received no therapeutic input from the research team. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes: quality of mother-infant interactions at six and 12 months postpartum; infant attachment security at 18 months. Secondary outcome: maternal depression at six and 12 months. Results The intervention was associated with significant benefit to the mother-infant relationship. At both six and 12 months, compared with control mothers, mothers in the intervention group were significantly more sensitive (6 months: mean difference=0.77 (SD 0.37), t=2.10, P<0.05, d=0.24; 12 months: mean difference=0.42 (0.18), t=-2.04, P<0.05, d=0.26) and less intrusive (6 months: mean difference=0.68 (0.36), t=2.28, P<0.05, d=0.26; 12 months: mean difference=-1.76 (0.86), t=2.28, P<0.05, d=0.24) in their interactions with their infants. The intervention was also associated with a higher rate of secure infant attachments at 18 months (116/156 (74%) v 102/162 (63%); Wald=4.74, odds ratio=1.70, P<0.05). Although the prevalence of maternal depressive disorder was not significantly reduced, the intervention had a benefit in terms of maternal depressed mood at six months (z=2.05, P=0.04) on the Edinburgh postnatal depression scale). Conclusions The intervention, delivered by local lay women, had a significant positive impact on the quality of the mother-infant relationship and on security of infant attachment, factors known to predict favourable child development. If these effects persist, and if they are replicated, this intervention holds considerable promise for use in the developing world. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25664149.