Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Foreign direct investment determinants revisited in the context of global value chains

In this paper, we aim at contributing to the new field of research that intends to bring up-to-date the tools and statistics currently used to look to the current reality given by Global Value Chains (GVC) in international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Namely, we make use of the most recent data published by the World Input-Output Database to suggest indicators to measure the participation and net gains of countries by being a part of GVC; and use those indicators in a pooled-regression model to estimate determinants of FDI stocks in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-member countries. We conclude that one of the measures proposed proves to be statistically significant in explaining the bilateral stock of FDI in OECD countries, meaning that the higher the transnational income generated between two given countries by GVC, taken as a proxy to the participation of those countries in GVC, the higher one could expect the FDI entering those countries to be. The regression also shows the negative impact of the global financial crisis that started in 2009 in the world’s bilateral FDI stocks and, additionally, the particular and significant role played by the People’s Republic of China in determining these stocks.

Sexual dysfunction in breast cancer survivors: cross-cultural adaptation of the Sexual Activity Questionnaire for use in Portugal

"Introduction: The increasing survivor population of breast cancer has shifted research and practice interests into the impacts of the disease and treatment in quality of life aspects. The lack of tools available in Portuguese to objectively evaluate sexual function led to the development of this study, which aimed to cross-culturally adapt and validate the Sexual Activity Questionnaire for use in Portugal. Material and Methods: The questionnaire was translated and back-translated, refined following face-to-face interviews with seven breast cancer survivors, and then self-administered by a larger sample at baseline and a fortnight later to test validity and reliability. Results: Following cognitive debriefing (n = 7), minor changes were made and the Sexual Activity Questionnaire was then tested with 134 breast cancer survivors. A 3-factor structure explained 75.5% of the variance, comprising the Pleasure, Habit and Discomfort scales, all yielding good internal consistency (Cronbach’s α > 0.70). Concurrent validity with the FACt-An and the BCPT checklist was good (Spearman’s r > 0.65; p-value < 0.001) and reliability acceptable (Cohen’s k > 0.444). The Sexual Activity Questionnaire allowed the identification of 23.9% of sexually inactive women, for whom the main reasons were lack of interest or motivation and not having a partner. Discussion: Patient-reported outcomes led to a more comprehensive and improved approach to cancer, tackling areas previously abandoned. Future research should focus on the validation of this scale in samples with different characteristics and even in the overall population to enable generalizability of the findings. Conclusion: The adapted Sexual Activity Questionnaire is a valid tool for assessing sexual function in breast cancer survivors in Portugal."

Evaluation of the Evidential Value of the Elemental Composition of Glass, Ink and Paper by Laser-Based Micro-Spectrochemical Methods

Elemental analysis can become an important piece of evidence to assist the solution of a case. The work presented in this dissertation aims to evaluate the evidential value of the elemental composition of three particular matrices: ink, paper and glass. In the first part of this study, the analytical performance of LIBS and LA-ICP-MS methods was evaluated for paper, writing inks and printing inks. A total of 350 ink specimens were examined including black and blue gel inks, ballpoint inks, inkjets and toners originating from several manufacturing sources and/or batches. The paper collection set consisted of over 200 paper specimens originating from 20 different paper sources produced by 10 different plants. Micro-homogeneity studies show smaller variation of elemental compositions within a single source (i.e., sheet, pen or cartridge) than the observed variation between different sources (i.e., brands, types, batches). Significant and detectable differences in the elemental profile of the inks and paper were observed between samples originating from different sources (discrimination of 87 – 100% of samples, depending on the sample set under investigation and the method applied). These results support the use of elemental analysis, using LA-ICP-MS and LIBS, for the examination of documents and provide additional discrimination to the currently used techniques in document examination. In the second part of this study, a direct comparison between four analytical methods (µ-XRF, solution-ICP-MS, LA-ICP-MS and LIBS) was conducted for glass analyses using interlaboratory studies. The data provided by 21 participants were used to assess the performance of the analytical methods in associating glass samples from the same source and differentiating different sources, as well as the use of different match criteria (confidence interval (±6s, ±5s, ±4s, ±3s, ±2s), modified confidence interval, t-test (sequential univariate, p=0.05 and p=0.01), t-test with Bonferroni correction (for multivariate comparisons), range overlap, and Hotelling’s T2 tests. Error rates (Type 1 and Type 2) are reported for the use of each of these match criteria and depend on the heterogeneity of the glass sources, the repeatability between analytical measurements, and the number of elements that were measured. The study provided recommendations for analytical performance-based parameters for µ-XRF and LA-ICP-MS as well as the best performing match criteria for both analytical techniques, which can be applied now by forensic glass examiners.

The use of computer technology to compare and analyze community college dissertations

A purpose of this research study was to demonstrate the practical linguistic study and evaluation of dissertations by using two examples of the latest technology, the microcomputer and optical scanner. That involved developing efficient methods for data entry plus creating computer algorithms appropriate for personal, linguistic studies. The goal was to develop a prototype investigation which demonstrated practical solutions for maximizing the linguistic potential of the dissertation data base. The mode of text entry was from a Dest PC Scan 1000 Optical Scanner. The function of the optical scanner was to copy the complete stack of educational dissertations from the Florida Atlantic University Library into an I.B.M. XT microcomputer. The optical scanner demonstrated its practical value by copying 15,900 pages of dissertation text directly into the microcomputer. A total of 199 dissertations or 72% of the entire stack of education dissertations (277) were successfully copied into the microcomputer's word processor where each dissertation was analyzed for a variety of syntax frequencies. The results of the study demonstrated the practical use of the optical scanner for data entry, the microcomputer for data and statistical analysis, and the availability of the college library as a natural setting for text studies. A supplemental benefit was the establishment of a computerized dissertation corpus which could be used for future research and study. The final step was to build a linguistic model of the differences in dissertation writing styles by creating 7 factors from 55 dependent variables through principal components factor analysis. The 7 factors (textual components) were then named and described on a hypothetical construct defined as a continuum from a conversational, interactional style to a formal, academic writing style. The 7 factors were then grouped through discriminant analysis to create discriminant functions for each of the 7 independent variables. The results indicated that a conversational, interactional writing style was associated with more recent dissertations (1972-1987), an increase in author's age, females, and the department of Curriculum and Instruction. A formal, academic writing style was associated with older dissertations (1972-1987), younger authors, males, and the department of Administration and Supervision. It was concluded that there were no significant differences in writing style due to subject matter (community college studies) compared to other subject matter. It was also concluded that there were no significant differences in writing style due to the location of dissertation origin (Florida Atlantic University, University of Central Florida, Florida International University).

Child-centred design supported by comprehensive child application use analysis

Since children already use and explore applications on smartphones, we use this as the starting point for design. Our monitoring and analysis framework, BaranC, enables us to discover and analyse which applications children uses and precisely how they interact with them. The monitoring happens unobtrusively in the background so children interact normally in their own natural environment without artificial constraints. Thus, we can discover to what extent a child of a particular age engages with, and how they physically interact with, existing applications. This information in turn provides the basis for design of new child-centred applications which can then be subject to the same comprehensive child use analysis using our framework. The work focuses on the first aspect, namely, the monitoring and analysis of current child use of smartphones. Experiments show the value of this approach and interesting results have been obtained from this precise monitoring of child smartphone usage.

Increasing the value of household appliances by adding a heat pump system

Historically, domestic tasks such as preparing food and washing and drying clothes and dishes were done by hand. In a modern home many of these chores are taken care of by machines such as washing machines, dishwashers and tumble dryers. When the first such machines came on the market customers were happy that they worked at all! Today, the costs of electricity and customers’ environmental awareness are high, so features such as low electricity, water and detergent use strongly influence which household machine the customer will buy. One way to achieve lower electricity usage for the tumble dryer and the dishwasher is to add a heat pump system. The function of a heat pump system is to extract heat from a lower temperature source (heat source) and reject it to a higher temperature sink (heat sink) at a higher temperature level. Heat pump systems have been used for a long time in refrigerators and freezers, and that industry has driven the development of small, high quality, low price heat pump components. The low price of good quality heat pump components, along with an increased willingness to pay extra for lower electricity usage and environmental impact, make it possible to introduce heat pump systems in other household products. However, there is a high risk of failure with new features. A number of household manufacturers no longer exist because they introduced poorly implemented new features, which resulted in low quality and product performance. A manufacturer must predict whether the future value of a feature is high enough for the customer chain to pay for it. The challenge for the manufacturer is to develop and produce a high-performance heat pump feature in a household product with high quality, predict future willingness to pay for it, and launch it at the right moment in order to succeed. Tumble dryers with heat pump systems have been on the market since 2000. Paper I reports on the development of a transient simulation model of a commercial heat pump tumble dryer. The measured and simulated results were compared with good similarity. The influence of the size of the compressor and the condenser was investigated using the validated simulation model. The results from the simulation model show that increasing the cylinder volume of the compressor by 50% decreases the drying time by 14% without using more electricity.  Paper II is a concept study of adding a heat pump system to a dishwasher in order to decrease the total electricity usage. The dishwasher, dishware and water are heated by the condenser, and the evaporator absorbs the heat from a water tank. The majority of the heat transfer to the evaporator occurs when ice is generated in the water tank. An experimental setup and a transient simulation model of a heat pump dishwasher were developed. The simulation results show a 24% reduction in electricity use compared to a conventional dishwasher heated with an electric element. The simulation model was based on an experimental setup that was not optimised. During the study it became apparent that it is possible to decrease electricity usage even more with the next experimental setup.

Estimation of water use and crop coefficients for an intensive olive orchard using sap flow measurements and modeled data

Olive tree sap flow measurements were collected in an intensive orchard near Évora, Portugal, during the irrigation seasons of 2013 and 2014, to calculate daily tree transpiration rates (T_SF). Meteorological variables were also collected to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Both data were used to assess values of basal crop coefficient (Kcb) for the period of the sap flow observations. The soil water balance model SIMDualKc was calibrated with soil, biophysical ground data and sap flow measurements collected in 2013. Validated in 2014 with collected sap flow observations, the model was used to provide estimates of dual e single crop coefficients for 2014 crop growing season. Good agreement between model simulated daily transpiration rates and those obtained with sapflow measurements was observed for 2014 (R2=0.76, RMSE=0.20 mm d-1), the year of validation, with an estimation average absolute error (AAE) of 0.20 mm d-1. Olive modeled daily actual evapotranspiration resulted in atual ETc values of 0.87, 2.05 and 0.77 mm d-1 for 2014 initial, mid- and end-season, respectively. Actual crop coefficient (Kc act) values of 0.51, 0.43 and 0.67 were also obtained for the same periods, respectively. Higher Kc values during spring (initial stage) and autumn (end-stage) were published in FAO56, varying between 0.65 for Kc ini and 0.70 for Kc end. The lower Kc mid value of 0.43 obtained for the summer (mid-season) is also inconsistent with the FAO56 expected Kc mid value of 0.70 for the period. The modeled Kc results are more consistent with the ones published by Allen & Pereira [1] for olive orchards with effective ground cover of 0.25 to 0.5, which vary between 0.40 and 0.80 for Kc ini, 0.40–0.60 for Kc mid with no active ground cover, and 0.35–0.75 for Kc end, depending on ground cover. The SIMDualKc simulation model proved to be appropriate for obtaining evapotranspiration and crop coefficient values for our intensive olive orchard in southern Portugal.

Evaluation of water use, yield and water productivity of a high-density orchard (cv. Cobrançosa) subjected to different irrigation regimes – An account of four years

The impact of different irrigation scheduling regimes on the water use, yield and water productivity from a high-density olive grove cv. Cobrançosa in southern Portugal was assessed during the irrigation seasons of 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The experiments were conducted in a commercial olive orchard at the Herdade Álamo de Cima, near Évora (38o 29' 49.44'' N, 7o 45' 8.83'' W; alt. 75 m) in southern Alentejo, Portugal. The orchard was established with 10-year old Cobrançosa trees in grids of 8.0 x 4.2 m (300 trees ha-1) in the E-W direction, and experiments conducted on a shallow sandy loam Regosoil Haplic soil. From mid-May to the end of September the orchard was irrigated and three plots were subjected to one of two irrigation treatments: a control treatment A, irrigated to replace 100% ETc, a moderate deficit irrigation treatment B irrigated to 70% of ETc, and a more severe deficit irrigation treatment C that provided for approximately 50% of ETc. Daily tree transpiration rates were obtained by continuously monitoring of sap flow in representative trees per treatment. Among the irrigated treatments, water use efficiency (WUE, ratio of water used to irrigation- water applied) of treatment C was the highest, with a value of 0.89, being treatment B slightly lower, with a WUE of 0.76. Olive harvest for 2012 was an exceptional “on year”. Bearing yields showed contrasting differences within years where an “on year” was followed by an “off year”. In 2011 and 2012 treatment B yields were 41 and 50% higher than treatment C, respectively. In 2013 treatment B yield was 45% higher than yield of the fully irrigated treatment A, and treatment C showed practically the same yield than treatment A. In the “on year” of 2014 treatment B averaged 48% higher yield than treatment C. Treatment B farm irrigation water productivity (WPI-Farm, ratio of yield to water applied) was the highest among all treatments. Treatment A showed the lowest conversion efficiency of all treatments, indicating treatment B as the adequate deficit irrigation treatment for our Cobrançosa orchard

Customer Loyalty toward grocery retailing service: a multidimensional approach to costumer perceived value

Structured abstract Purpose: To deepen, in grocery retail context, the roles of consumer perceived value and consumer satisfaction, as antecedents’ dimensions of customer loyalty intentions. Design/Methodology/approach: Also employing a short version (12-items) of the original 19-item PERVAL scale of Sweeney & Soutar (2001), a structural equation modeling approach was applied to investigate statistical properties of the indirect influence on loyalty of a reflective second order customer perceived value model. The performance of three alternative estimation methods was compared through bootstrapping techniques. Findings: Results provided i) support for the use of the short form of the PERVAL scale in measuring consumer perceived value; ii) the influence of the four highly correlated independent latent predictors on satisfaction was well summarized by a higher-order reflective specification of consumer perceived value; iii) emotional and functional dimensions were determinants for the relationship with the retailer; iv) parameter’s bias with the three methods of estimation was only significant for bootstrap small sample sizes. Research limitations:/implications: Future research is needed to explore the use of the short form of the PERVAL scale in more homogeneous groups of consumers. Originality/value: Firstly, to indirectly explain customer loyalty mediated by customer satisfaction it was adopted a recent short form of PERVAL scale and a second order reflective conceptualization of value. Secondly, three alternative estimation methods were used and compared through bootstrapping and simulation procedures.

ABC transporters of the A subfamily: potential prognostic markers and candidates for antibody selection from phage-display libraries for therapeutic use in Ewing sarcoma

The prognostic value of ABC transporters in Ewing sarcoma is still poorly explored and controversial. We described for the first time the impact of various ABCs on Ewing sarcoma prognosis by assessment of their gene expression in two independent cohorts of patients. Unexpected associations with favourable outcomes were observed for two ABCs of the A-subfamily, ABCA6 and ABCA7, whereas no associations with the canonical multidrug ABC transporters were identified. The ABCs of the A-subfamily are involved in cholesterol/phospholipids transportation and efflux from cells. Our clinical data support the drug-efflux independent contribution to cancer progression of the ABCAs, which has been confirmed in PDX-derived cell lines. The impact of these ABCA transporters on tumor progression seems to be mediated by lowering intracellular cholesterol, supporting the role of these proteins in lipid transport. In addition, the gene expression of ABCA6 and ABCA7 is regulated by transcription factors which control lipid metabolism: ABCA6 was induced by the binding of FoxO1/FoxO3a to its promoter and repressed by IGF1R/Akt signaling, whereas the expression of ABCA7 was regulated by p53. The data point to ABCA6 and ABCA7 as potential prognostic markers in Ewing sarcoma and suggest the IGF1/ABCA/lipid axis as an intriguing therapeutic target. Agonist monoclonal antibodies towards ABCA6/7 or inhibitors of cholesterol biosynthesis, such as statins or aminobiphoshonates, may be investigated as therapeutic options in combination with chemotherapy. Considering that no monoclonal antibodies selectively targeting extracellular domains of ABCA6/7 are available, the second part of the project has been dedicated to the generation of human antibody phage-display libraries as tools for selecting monoclonal antibodies. A novel synthetic human antibody phage-display library has been designed, cloned and characterized. The library takes advantages of the high variability of a designed naïve repertoire to be a useful tool for isolating antibodies towards all potential antigens, including the ABCAs.

System innovation and life cycle thinking in packaging value chain: the circularity of plastics.

Compared to other, plastic materials have registered a strong acceleration in production and consumption during the last years. Despite the existence of waste management systems, plastic_based materials are still a pervasive presence in the environment, with negative consequences on marine ecosystem and human health. The recycling is still challenging due to the growing complexity of product design, the so-called overpackaging, the insufficient and inadequate recycling infrastructure, the weak market of recycled plastics and the high cost of waste treatment and disposal. The Circular economy package, the European Strategy for plastics in a circular economy and the recent European Green Deal include very ambitious programmes to rethink the entire plastic value chain. As regards packaging, all plastic packaging will have to be 100% recyclable (or reusable) and 55% recycled by 2030. Regions are consequently called upon to set up a robust plan able to fit the European objectives. It takes on greater importance in Emilia Romagna where the Packaging valley is located. This thesis supports the definition of a strategy aimed to establish an after-use plastics economy in the region. The PhD work has set the basis and the instruments to establish the so-called Circularity Strategy with the aim to turn about 92.000t of plastic waste into profitable secondary resources. System innovation, life cycle thinking and participative backcasting method have allowed to deeply analyse the current system, orientate the problem and explore sustainable solutions through a broad stakeholder participation. A material flow analysis, accompanied by a barrier analysis, has supported the identification of the gaps between the present situation and the 2030 scenario. Eco-design for and from recycling (and a mass _based recycling rate (based on the effective amount of plastic wastes turned into secondary plastics), valorized by a value_based indicator, are the key-points of the action plan.

How do Firms ask for Consumers’ Data Permission? The Value of Companies Data Practices.

On May 25, 2018, the EU introduced the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) that offers EU citizens a shelter for their personal information by requesting companies to explain how people’s information is used clearly. To comply with the new law, European and non-European companies interacting with EU citizens undertook a massive data re-permission-request campaign. However, if on the one side the EU Regulator was particularly specific in defining the conditions to get customers’ data access, on the other side, it did not specify how the communication between firms and consumers should be designed. This has left firms free to develop their re-permission emails as they liked, plausibly coupling the informative nature of these privacy-related communications with other persuasive techniques to maximize data disclosure. Consequently, we took advantage of this colossal wave of simultaneous requests to provide insights into two issues. Firstly, we investigate how companies across industries and countries chose to frame their requests. Secondly, we investigate which are the factors that influenced the selection of alternative re-permission formats. In order to achieve these goals, we examine the content of a sample of 1506 re-permission emails sent by 1396 firms worldwide, and we identify the dominant “themes” characterizing these emails. We then relate these themes to both the expected benefits firms may derive from data usage and the possible risks they may experience from not being completely compliant to the spirit of the law. Our results show that: (1) most firms enriched their re-permission messages with persuasive arguments aiming at increasing consumers’ likelihood of relinquishing their data; (2) the use of persuasion is the outcome of a difficult tradeoff between costs and benefits; (3) most companies acted in their self-interest and “gamed the system”. Our results have important implications for policymakers, managers, and customers of the online sector.

Teaching psychology to student nurses: the use of ‘Talking Head’ videos

Psychology is a central part of undergraduate nursing curricula in the UK. However, student nurses report difficulties recognising the relevance and value of psychology. We sought to strengthen first-year student nurses’ application of psychology by developing a set of digital stories based around ‘Talking Head’ video clips where authentic patients relate their experiences of illness and nursing care. The aim of this article is to discuss the technological, organisational and pedagogical challenges, student and staff evaluations and our recommendations for the future of Talking Heads. First-year student nurses were shown a video clip of a patient talking about their illness experiences followed by a group learning situation linking main themes to psychology and nursing. Students and staff valued the authenticity of patient's narrative, found the video clip easy to follow, reported a raised awareness of psychological concepts and improved empathetic understanding of chronic illness. Negative evaluations were related to a sanitised, untypical representation and limited internet access. This small-scale study highlighted how patient narrative may enhance students understanding of illness experience. It chronicles the development and evaluation of a Talking Head in a specific context but which may be useful across disciplines.

Radiocarbon and stable isotopes in the shell organic matrix: a new approach for the use of mollusk shells in the study of human evolution

Mollusk shells are often found in archeological sites, given their great preservation potential and high value as a multipurpose resource. They are often the only available material to use for radiocarbon dating, due to a lack of well-preserved bones in many archeological sites, especially for the key period of the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition. However, radiocarbon dating on mollusk shells is often regarded as less reliable compared to bones, wood, or charcoals due to the various factors influencing their radiocarbon content (e.g., Isotope fractionation, marine reservoir effect etc.). For the development of more accurate chronologies using shells, it is fundamental to continue improving the precision of the techniques applied, as has been done for other materials (wood and bones). Thus, improving the chemical pretreatment on mollusk shells might allow researchers to obtain more reliable radiocarbon determinations allowing for the construction of new radiocarbon chronologies in archeological sites where so far it has not been possible. Furthermore, mollusk shells can provide information on the climatic and environmental variables present during their growth. Using shells for paleoclimatic reconstruction adds more evidence helpful for the interpretation of scenarios of human migration, adaptation, and behavior. Standard methods for both radiocarbon and stable isotope studies use the carbonate fraction of the shell. However, being biogenic structures, mollusk shells also consist of a minor organic fraction. The shell organic matrix has an important role in the formation of the calcium carbonate structure and is still not fully understood. This thesis explores the potential of using the shell organic matrix for radiocarbon dating and paleoenvironmental studies. The results of the work performed for this thesis represent a starting point for future research to build on, and further develop the approach and methodology proposed here.