Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Open research data policies, what makes the difference?

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Recommendations for Preservation Data Policies

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Digital Preservation Tools, Practices, and Policies in Islandora

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

The European Union and Assembling Biofuel Development – topological investigations concerning the associations between law, policy and space

Biofuels for transport are a renewable source of energy that were once heralded as a solution to multiple problems associated with poor urban air quality, the overproduction of agricultural commodities, the energy security of the European Union (EU) and climate change. It was only after the Union had implemented an incentivizing framework of legal and political instruments for the production, trade and consumption of biofuels that the problems of weakening food security, environmental degradation and increasing greenhouse gases through land-use changes began to unfold. In other words, the difference between political aims for why biofuels are promoted and their consequences has grown – which is also recognized by the EU policy-makers. Therefore, the global networks of producing, trading and consuming biofuels may face a complete restructure if the European Commission accomplishes its pursuit to sideline crop-based biofuels after 2020. My aim with this dissertation is not only to trace the manifold evolutions of the instruments used by the Union to govern biofuels but also to reveal how this evolution has influenced the dynamics of biofuel development. Therefore, I study the ways the EU’s legal and political instruments of steering biofuels are coconstitutive with the globalized spaces of biofuel development. My analytical strategy can be outlined through three concepts. I use the term ‘assemblage’ to approach the operations of the loose entity of actors and non-human elements that are the constituents of multi-scalar and -sectorial biofuel development. ‘Topology’ refers to the spatiality of this European biofuel assemblage and its parts whose evolving relations are treated as the active constituents of space, instead of simply being located in space. I apply the concept of ‘nomosphere’ to characterize the framework of policies, laws and other instruments that the EU applies and construes while attempting to govern biofuels. Even though both the materials and methods vary in the independent articles, these three concepts characterize my analytical strategy that allows me to study law, policy and space associated with each other. The results of my examinations underscore the importance of the instruments of governance of the EU constituting and stabilizing the spaces of producing and, on the other hand, how topological ruptures in biofuel development have enforced the need to reform policies. This analysis maps the vast scope of actors that are influenced by the mechanism of EU biofuel governance and, what is more, shows how they are actively engaging in the Union’s institutional policy formulation. By examining the consequences of fast biofuel development that are spatially dislocated from the established spaces of producing, trading and consuming biofuels such as indirect land use changes, I unfold the processes not tackled by the instruments of the EU. Indeed, it is these spatially dislocated processes that have pushed the Commission construing a new type of governing biofuels: transferring the instruments of climate change mitigation to land-use policies. Although efficient in mitigating these dislocated consequences, these instruments have also created peculiar ontological scaffolding for governing biofuels. According to this mode of governance, the spatiality of biofuel development appears to be already determined and the agency that could dampen the negative consequences originating from land-use practices is treated as irrelevant.

The multicultural moment : the history of the idea and politics of multiculturalism in Sweden in comparative, transnational and biographical context, 1964–1975

The emergence of the idea of multiculturalism in Swedish public discourse and social science in the latter half of the 1960s and introduction of official multiculturalism in 1975 constituted a major intellectual and political shift in the post-war history of Sweden. The ambition of the 1975 immigrant and minority policy to enable the preservation of ethno-cultural minorities and to create a positive attitude towards the new multicultural society among the majority population was also incorporated into Swedish cultural, educational and media policies. The rejection of assimilationism and the new commitment to ethno-cultural diversity, the multicultural moment, has earned Sweden a place on the list of the early adopters of official multiculturalism, together with Canada and Australia. This compilation thesis examines the origins and early post-war history of the idea of multiculturalism as well as the interplay between idea and politics in the shift from a public ideal of homogeneity to an ideal of multiculturalism in Sweden. It does so from a range of conceptual, comparative, transnational, and biographical perspectives. The thesis consists of an introduction (Part I) and four previously published studies (Part II). The primary research result of the thesis concerns the agency involved in the break-through and formal establishment of the idea of multiculturalism in Sweden. Actors such as ethnic activists, experts and officials were instrumental in the introduction and establishment of multiculturalism in Sweden, as they also had been in Canada and in Australia. These actors have, however, not previously been recognized and analysed as significant idea-makers and political agents in the case of Sweden. The intertwined connections between activists, social scientists, linguists, and officials facilitated the transfer of the idea of multiculturalism from a publically contested idea to public policy via the way of The Swedish Trade Union Confederation, academia and the Royal Commission of Immigration. The thesis furthermore shows that the political success of the idea of multiculturalism, such as it was within the limits of the universalist social democratic welfare state, was dependent on whom the claims-makers were, the status and positions they held, and the way the idea of multiculturalism was conceptualised and used. It was also dependent on the migratory context of labour immigration in the 1960s and 1970s and on whose behalf the advocates of multiculturalism made their claims. The majority of the labour immigrants were Finnish citizens from the former eastern half of the kingdom of Sweden who were net contributors to the Swedish welfare state. This facilitated the recognition of their ethno-cultural difference, and, following the logic of universalism, the ethno-cultural difference of other minority groups in Sweden. The historical significance of the multicultural moment is still evident in the contemporary immigration and integration policies of Sweden. The affirmation of diversity continues to set Sweden apart from the rest of Europe, now more so than in the 1970s, even though the migratory context has changed radically in the last 40 years.

Map of the north coast of Russia indicating the proposed trade route of the Obi-railway

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Cultural adaptation and validation of the "Kidney Disease and Quality of Life - Short Form (KDQOL-SF™ 1.3)" in Brazil

The objective of the present study was to translate the Kidney Disease Quality of Life - Short Form (KDQOL-SF&trade;1.3) questionnaire into Portuguese to adapt it culturally and validate it for the Brazilian population. The KDQOL-SF was translated into Portuguese and back-translated twice into English. Patient difficulties in understanding the questionnaire were evaluated by a panel of experts and solved. Measurement properties such as reliability and validity were determined by applying the questionnaire to 94 end-stage renal disease patients on chronic dialysis. The Nottingham Health Profile Questionnaire, the Karnofsky Performance Scale and the Kidney Disease Questionnaire were administered to test validity. Some activities included in the original instrument were considered to be incompatible with the activities usually performed by the Brazilian population and were replaced. The mean scores for the 19 components of the KDQOL-SF questionnaire in Portuguese ranged from 22 to 91. The components "Social support" and "Dialysis staff encouragement" had the highest scores (86.7 and 90.8, respectively). The test-retest reliability and the inter-observer reliability of the instrument were evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient. The coefficients for both reliability tests were statistically significant for all scales of the KDQOL-SF (P < 0.001), ranging from 0.492 to 0.936 for test-retest reliability and from 0.337 to 0.994 for inter-observer reliability. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient was higher than 0.80 for most of components. The Portuguese version of the KDQOL-SF questionnaire proved to be valid and reliable for the evaluation of quality of life of Brazilian patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic dialysis.

Emerging market patterns in recycled paper trade

The international recovered paper trade serves two important functions: increasing raw material availability in the paper and board industry and providing economic incentives to recycle. The purpose of this paper is to shed further light on emerging patterns in this trade by empirically analysing the changes in the bilateral trade flows of recycled paper between 1992 and 2008. According to our estimations, two important changes have taken place in the 1990s and 2000s. First, the growing importance of developing economies in global recycled paper trade plays a significant role in import demand as a determinant of trade flows. Second, the changes in global trade patterns necessitate investigating the transportation cost measures used in applied research.

Explaining the Shifts of International Trade in Pulp and Paper Industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. In this paper, we describe the recent trends in the pulp and recovered paper (RP) production, and estimate augmented gravity models of bilateral trade for chemical pulp and RP exports with panel data. According to our results, there is some variation in the effects of the traditional gravity-model variables between pulp grades and RP. The results imply also that, in comparison to export supply, import demand plays a larger role in determining the volume of exports. Finally, it is evident that Asia, particularly China, is the most important driver of chemical pulp and RP trade: China is hungry for fiber, and must import to satisfy its growing needs. Moreover, the speed of China’s growth in chemical pulp and RP imports has been driving the increased significance of planted forests in the exports of hardwood pulp (BHKP) as well.

Comparative quantification of umbilical cord blood CD34+ and CD34+ bright cells using the ProCount&trade;-BD and ISHAGE protocols

The total number of CD34+ cells is the most relevant clinical parameter when selecting human umbilical cord blood (HUCB) for transplantation. The objective of the present study was to compare the two most commonly used CD34+ cell quantification methods (ISHAGE protocol and ProCount&trade; - BD) and analyze the CD34+ bright cells whose 7-amino actinomycin D (7AAD) analysis suggests are apoptotic or dead cells. Twenty-six HUCB samples obtained at the Placental Blood Program of New York Blood Center were evaluated. The absolute numbers of CD34+ cells evaluated by the ISHAGE (with exclusion of 7AAD+ cells) and ProCount&trade; (with exclusion of CD34+ bright cells) were determined. Using the ISHAGE protocol we found 35.6 ± 19.4 CD34+ cells/µL and with the ProCount&trade; method we found 36.6 ± 23.2 CD34+ cells/µL. With the ProCount&trade; method, CD34+ bright cell counts were 9.3 ± 8.2 cells/µL. CD34+ bright and regular cells were individually analyzed by the ISHAGE protocol. Only about 1.8% of the bright CD34+ cells are alive, whereas a small part (19.0%) is undergoing apoptosis and most of them (79.2%) are dead cells. Our study showed that the two methods produced similar results and that 7AAD is important to exclude CD34 bright cells. These results will be of value to assist in the correct counting of CD34+ cells and to choose the best HUCB unit for transplantation, i.e., the unit with the greatest number of potentially viable stem cells for the reconstitution of bone marrow. This increases the likelihood of success of the transplant and, therefore, the survival of the patient.

Scientist-friendly policies for non-native English-speaking authors: timely and welcome

That English is the lingua franca of today's science is an indisputable fact. Publication in English in international journals is a pre-requisite for a research paper to gain visibility in academia. However, English proficiency appears to be taken for granted in the scientific community, though this language can be a hurdle for a number of authors, particularly from non-native English-speaking countries. The influence of English proficiency on the publication output of Brazilian authors has never been assessed. We report our preliminary data on the relationship between the English proficiency of 51,223 researchers registered in the CNPq database and their publication output in international journals. We have found that publication rates are higher for those authors with good command of English, particularly written English. Although our research is still underway and our results are preliminary, they suggest that the correlation between written English proficiency and research productivity should not be underestimated. We also present the comments of some Brazilian scientists with high publication records on the relevance of communication skills to the scientific enterprise.

Impacts of capacity remunerative mechanisms on cross-border trade

The European ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable generation pose a challenge to the generation adequacy. Many European member states are concerned that energy-only markets alone might not be able to deliver sufficient capacity required to meet the future electricity demand and back up shortfalls of energy from renewable energy sources (RES) during periods of low wind and sun. Many EU members consider to re-design their energy-only markets and establish different forms of capacity remunerative mechanisms (CRMs) to maintain the security of supply. There is a certain concern that market design changes at the level of EU member countries might conflict with the European goal of a single market. As soon as many European markets are highly interconnected, uncoordinated CRMs might create negative crossborder effects and hinder the achievement of the Internal Electricity Market in Europe. The pros and cons of capacity markets are well examined at the national level. However, the cross-border effects of capacity markets within the European market aiming at higher integration have received less attention. This doctoral dissertation examines the cross-border effects of unilateral implementation of CRMs applying both theoretical and case study analyses. The results show that capacity remunerative mechanisms (CRMs) may cause negative cross-border effects, especially if they are implemented unilaterally.