Methodologies for Collision Risk Computation = Metodologías para Cálculo de Riesgo de Colisión

Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.

Caracterización estructural de los rellenos situados en el trasdós de bóvedas de edificios históricos

El papel esencial de los rellenos en el comportamiento y la estabilidad de las construcciones de fábrica ha sido sorprendentemente ignorado en la bibliografía técnica, contribuyendo este trabajo a cubrir esta laguna del conocimiento. Se presenta en primer lugar la configuración morfológica de los rellenos del trasdós de bóvedas en la Península Ibérica en tres periodos histórico-técnicos: la construcción romana, la románica y la gótica. La clasificación se ha realizado en base a inspecciones visuales de diferentes edificios. En sendos anexos se presentan análisis comparados de la base de datos que se ha reunido y las fichas de las construcciones consideradas. En segundo lugar se ha caracterizado el papel estructural de los rellenos, identificándose las características intrínsecas que se estiman más significativas de dichos rellenos en relación tanto con su propia configuración como con su función estructural. Muy en particular se proponen unas leyes de empujes coherentes con la naturaleza y con las condiciones de contorno de los rellenos y las bóvedas. En esta tesis se ha desarrollado una sencilla, potente y suficiente herramienta de análisis que considera las principales variables que intervienen en el comportamiento de una estructura de fábrica, incluyendo muy particularmente los rellenos. Para ello se ha planteado una herramienta basada en el análisis límite que incluye la comprobación tensional de los diferentes esfuerzos, normales o tangenciales, así como la interfaz entre bóvedas y rellenos, dotándose a los técnicos de una herramienta que permite entender estas estructuras, de complejo funcionamiento. La herramienta propuesta incluye consideraciones energéticas para encontrar la solución más cercana al funcionamiento real. La herramienta se ha calibrado con ejemplos analizados por otros autores con diferentes procedimientos, poniéndose de manifiesto su suficiente precisión y eficacia, especialmente si se tiene en cuenta que requiere sólo de unos datos mínimos. La calibración se ha extendido al ensayo en modelo reducido de este tipo de estructuras en el Laboratorio de Estructuras de la Escuela de Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos de Madrid. Fruto de esa calibración, se ha realizado un amplio estudio paramétrico que permite cuantificar la influencia que tienen en el comportamiento estructural variables como el apuntamiento de las bóvedas (relación luz/flecha), su esbeltez (relación luz/canto en clave), la altura de los rellenos rígidos, la altura de los rellenos granulares, etc. Ese estudio ha permitido identificar los puntos críticos, las ratios características que condicionan el comportamiento y, en fin, los aspectos clave del análisis estructural de estas construcciones desde el punto de vista de la interrelación, hasta ahora desconocida, de estructura y relleno, que también es estructura. Ello permitirá orientar de mejor manera las inspecciones de estas estructuras y sus análisis estructurales. Finalmente, la tesis concluye con el desarrollo de tres ejemplos, correspondientes cada uno de ellos a los periodos históricos referidos, en los que se pone de manifiesto el papel crucial de los rellenos en la estabilidad no sólo de las bóvedas sino del resto de elementos estructurales que componen un edificio (pilares, muros, botareles, etc.). Al final se presentan las conclusiones del trabajo y se enumeran las muchas líneas de trabajo que quedan abiertas tras esta tesis. It is surprising that the essential role of the backfill at the extrados of masonry vaults and domes has been ignored or misunderstood in the technical literature. The main purpose of this work is to contribute to overcome such a lacuna. Firstly, the morphological configuration of backfill that can be found in the Iberian Peninsula in Roman, Romanesque and Gothic buildings is also presented. Two annexes are devoted to show the collected database and the result of its analysis. Then, the structural role of backfill is characterised, as well as the intrinsic and most significant properties related both to its configuration and structural function. Thus, specific thrust values are proposed to analyse such structures, taking into account the nature and boundary conditions of walls and vaults. The simple, powerful and sufficient tool of analysis that has been developed is also presented, including the main variables involved, especially the backfill. The limit analysis method, followed by a stress verification, including the extrados of vaults and backfill interface, and an enhanced algorithm based on energetic considerations, are used to provide technicians a tool to understand this type of structures efficiently, in a balanced situation between the rather scarce amount of information and sufficient accuracy and liability. The tool was calibrated by comparing the experimental and theoretical results provided by different authors regarding several examples, as well as our own experimental campaign carried out at the Civil Engineering School of Madrid. A parametric study is also developed, providing original information about the structural importance of several parameters, as the span-to-depth or span-to-rise ratios, relative height of backfill, etc. As a result of this analysis, critical points and tendencies of structural behaviour were detected, helping technicians to inspect and analyse these constructions, also revealing some particularities related to their construction. Furthermore, a set of three examples corresponding to the three structural typologies analysed (Roman, Romanesque and Gothic) is studied. The crucial importance of backfill is then highlighted, not only for the stability of vaults or domes, but also for the equilibrium of walls, pillars and buttresses. Finally, the conclusions of the study and the future research fields are also presented.

The extended Betz–Lanchester limit

A proposal for an extended formulation of the power coefficient of a wind turbine is presented. This new formulation is a generalization of the Betz–Lanchester expression for the power coefficient as function of the axial deceleration of the wind speed provoked by the wind turbine in operation. The extended power coefficient takes into account the benefits of the power produced and the cost associated to the production of this energy. By the simple model proposed is evidenced that the purely energetic optimum operation condition giving rise to the Betz–Lanchester limit (maximum energy produced) does not coincide with the global optimum operational condition (maximum benefit generated) if cost of energy and degradation of the wind turbine during operation is considered. The new extended power coefficient is a general parameter useful to define global optimum operation conditions for wind turbines, considering not only the energy production but also the maintenance cost and the economic cost associated to the life reduction of the machine.

Development of a sensorimotor algorithm able to deal with unforeseen pushes and its implementation based on VHDL

Development of a Sensorimotor Algorithm Able to Deal with Unforeseen Pushes and Its Implementation Based on VHDL is the title of my thesis which concludes my Bachelor Degree in the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería y Sistemas de Telecomunicación of the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. It encloses the overall work I did in the Neurorobotics Research Laboratory from the Beuth Hochschule für Technik Berlin during my ERASMUS year in 2015. This thesis is focused on the field of robotics, specifically an electronic circuit called Cognitive Sensorimotor Loop (CSL) and its control algorithm based on VHDL hardware description language. The reason that makes the CSL special resides in its ability to operate a motor both as a sensor and an actuator. This way, it is possible to achieve a balanced position in any of the robot joints (e.g. the robot manages to stand) without needing any conventional sensor. In other words, the back electromotive force (EMF) induced by the motor coils is measured and the control algorithm responds depending on its magnitude. The CSL circuit contains mainly an analog-to-digital converter (ADC) and a driver. The ADC consists on a delta-sigma modulation which generates a series of bits with a certain percentage of 1's and 0's, proportional to the back EMF. The control algorithm, running in a FPGA, processes the bit frame and outputs a signal for the driver. This driver, which has an H bridge topology, gives the motor the ability to rotate in both directions while it's supplied with the power needed. The objective of this thesis is to document the experiments and overall work done on push ignoring contractive sensorimotor algorithms, meaning sensorimotor algorithms that ignore large magnitude forces (compared to gravity) applied in a short time interval on a pendulum system. This main objective is divided in two sub-objectives: (1) developing a system based on parameterized thresholds and (2) developing a system based on a push bypassing filter. System (1) contains a module that outputs a signal which blocks the main Sensorimotor algorithm when a push is detected. This module has several different parameters as inputs e.g. the back EMF increment to consider a force as a push or the time interval between samples. System (2) consists on a low-pass Infinite Impulse Response digital filter. It cuts any frequency considered faster than a certain push oscillation. This filter required an intensive study on how to implement some functions and data types (fixed or floating point data) not supported by standard VHDL packages. Once this was achieved, the next challenge was to simplify the solution as much as possible, without using non-official user made packages. Both systems behaved with a series of interesting advantages and disadvantages for the elaboration of the document. Stability, reaction time, simplicity or computational load are one of the many factors to be studied in the designed systems. RESUMEN. Development of a Sensorimotor Algorithm Able to Deal with Unforeseen Pushes and Its Implementation Based on VHDL es un Proyecto de Fin de Grado (PFG) que concluye mis estudios en la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería y Sistemas de Telecomunicación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. En él se documenta el trabajo de investigación que realicé en el Neurorobotics Research Laboratory de la Beuth Hochschule für Technik Berlin durante el año 2015 mediante el programa de intercambio ERASMUS. Este PFG se centra en el campo de la robótica y en concreto en un circuito electrónico llamado Cognitive Sensorimotor Loop (CSL) y su algoritmo de control basado en lenguaje de modelado hardware VHDL. La particularidad del CSL reside en que se consigue que un motor haga las veces tanto de sensor como de actuador. De esta manera es posible que las articulaciones de un robot alcancen una posición de equilibrio (p.ej. el robot se coloca erguido) sin la necesidad de sensores en el sentido estricto de la palabra. Es decir, se mide la propia fuerza electromotriz (FEM) inducida sobre el motor y el algoritmo responde de acuerdo a su magnitud. El circuito CSL se compone de un convertidor analógico-digital (ADC) y un driver. El ADC consiste en un modulador sigma-delta, que genera una serie de bits con un porcentaje de 1's y 0's determinado, en proporción a la magnitud de la FEM inducida. El algoritmo de control, que se ejecuta en una FPGA, procesa esta cadena de bits y genera una señal para el driver. El driver, que posee una topología en puente H, provee al motor de la potencia necesaria y le otorga la capacidad de rotar en cualquiera de las dos direcciones. El objetivo de este PFG es documentar los experimentos y en general el trabajo realizado en algoritmos Sensorimotor que puedan ignorar fuerzas de gran magnitud (en comparación con la gravedad) y aplicadas en una corta ventana de tiempo. En otras palabras, ignorar empujones conservando el comportamiento original frente a la gravedad. Para ello se han desarrollado dos sistemas: uno basado en umbrales parametrizados (1) y otro basado en un filtro de corte ajustable (2). El sistema (1) contiene un módulo que, en el caso de detectar un empujón, genera una señal que bloquea el algoritmo Sensorimotor. Este módulo recibe diferentes parámetros como el incremento necesario de la FEM para que se considere un empujón o la ventana de tiempo para que se considere la existencia de un empujón. El sistema (2) consiste en un filtro digital paso-bajo de respuesta infinita que corta cualquier variación que considere un empujón. Para crear este filtro se requirió un estudio sobre como implementar ciertas funciones y tipos de datos (coma fija o flotante) no soportados por las librerías básicas de VHDL. Tras esto, el objetivo fue simplificar al máximo la solución del problema, sin utilizar paquetes de librerías añadidos. En ambos sistemas aparecen una serie de ventajas e inconvenientes de interés para el documento. La estabilidad, el tiempo de reacción, la simplicidad o la carga computacional son algunas de las muchos factores a estudiar en los sistemas diseñados. Para concluir, también han sido documentadas algunas incorporaciones a los sistemas: una interfaz visual en VGA, un módulo que compensa el offset del ADC o la implementación de una batería de faders MIDI entre otras.

Probing the role of packing specificity in protein design

By using a protein-design algorithm that quantitatively considers side-chain packing, the effect of specific steric constraints on protein design was assessed in the core of the streptococcal protein G β1 domain. The strength of packing constraints used in the design was varied, resulting in core sequences that reflected differing amounts of packing specificity. The structural flexibility and stability of several of the designed proteins were experimentally determined and showed a trend from well-ordered to highly mobile structures as the degree of packing specificity in the design decreased. This trend both demonstrates that the inclusion of specific packing interactions is necessary for the design of native-like proteins and defines a useful range of packing specificity for the design algorithm. In addition, an analysis of the modeled protein structures suggested that penalizing for exposed hydrophobic surface area can improve design performance.

Interaction of the E1A Oncoprotein with Yak1p, a Novel Regulator of Yeast Pseudohyphal Differentiation, and Related Mammalian Kinases

The C-terminal portion of adenovirus E1A suppresses ras-induced metastasis and tumorigenicity in mammalian cells; however, little is known about the mechanisms by which this occurs. In the simple eukaryote Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Ras2p, the homolog of mammalian h-ras, regulates mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase A (cAMP/PKA) signaling pathways to control differentiation from the yeast form to the pseudohyphal form. When expressed in yeast, the C-terminal region of E1A induced pseudohyphal differentiation, and this was independent of both the MAPK and cAMP/PKA signaling pathways. Using the yeast two-hybrid system, we identified an interaction between the C-terminal region of E1A and Yak1p, a yeast dual-specificity serine/threonine protein kinase that functions as a negative regulator of growth. E1A also physically interacts with Dyrk1A and Dyrk1B, two mammalian homologs of Yak1p, and stimulates their kinase activity in vitro. We further demonstrate that Yak1p is required in yeast to mediate pseudohyphal differentiation induced by Ras2p-regulated signaling pathways. However, pseudohyphal differentiation induced by the C-terminal region of E1A is largely independent of Yak1p. These data suggest that mammalian Yak1p-related kinases may be targeted by the E1A oncogene to modulate cell growth.

ParAlign: a parallel sequence alignment algorithm for rapid and sensitive database searches

There is a need for faster and more sensitive algorithms for sequence similarity searching in view of the rapidly increasing amounts of genomic sequence data available. Parallel processing capabilities in the form of the single instruction, multiple data (SIMD) technology are now available in common microprocessors and enable a single microprocessor to perform many operations in parallel. The ParAlign algorithm has been specifically designed to take advantage of this technology. The new algorithm initially exploits parallelism to perform a very rapid computation of the exact optimal ungapped alignment score for all diagonals in the alignment matrix. Then, a novel heuristic is employed to compute an approximate score of a gapped alignment by combining the scores of several diagonals. This approximate score is used to select the most interesting database sequences for a subsequent Smith–Waterman alignment, which is also parallelised. The resulting method represents a substantial improvement compared to existing heuristics. The sensitivity and specificity of ParAlign was found to be as good as Smith–Waterman implementations when the same method for computing the statistical significance of the matches was used. In terms of speed, only the significantly less sensitive NCBI BLAST 2 program was found to outperform the new approach. Online searches are available at http://dna.uio.no/search/

The tight linkage between DNA replication and double-strand break repair in bacteriophage T4

Double-strand break (DSB) repair and DNA replication are tightly linked in the life cycle of bacteriophage T4. Indeed, the major mode of phage DNA replication depends on recombination proteins and can be stimulated by DSBs. DSB-stimulated DNA replication is dramatically demonstrated when T4 infects cells carrying two plasmids that share homology. A DSB on one plasmid triggered extensive replication of the second plasmid, providing a useful model for T4 recombination-dependent replication (RDR). This system also provides a view of DSB repair in T4-infected cells and revealed that the DSB repair products had been replicated in their entirety by the T4 replication machinery. We analyzed the detailed structure of these products, which do not fit the simple predictions of any of three models for DSB repair. We also present evidence that the T4 RDR system functions to restart stalled or inactivated replication forks. First, we review experiments involving antitumor drug-stabilized topoisomerase cleavage complexes. The results suggest that forks blocked at cleavage complexes are resolved by recombinational repair, likely involving RDR. Second, we show here that the presence of a T4 replication origin on one plasmid substantially stimulated recombination events between it and a homologous second plasmid that did not contain a T4 origin. Furthermore, replication of the second plasmid was increased when the first plasmid contained the T4 origin. Our interpretation is that origin-initiated forks become inactivated at some frequency during replication of the first plasmid and are then restarted via RDR on the second plasmid.

A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California.

Predictions of earthquakes that are based on observations of precursory seismicity cannot depend on the average properties of the seismicity, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. Instead it must depend on the fluctuations in seismicity. We summarize the observational data of the fluctuations of seismicity in space, in time, and in a coupled space-time regime over the past 60 yr in Southern California, to provide a basis for determining whether these fluctuations are correlated with the times and locations of future strong earthquakes in an appropriate time- and space-scale. The simple extrapolation of the G-R distribution must lead to an overestimate of the risk due to large earthquakes. There may be two classes of earthquakes: the small earthquakes that satisfy the G-R law and the larger and large ones. Most observations of fluctuations of seismicity are of the rate of occurrence of smaller earthquakes. Large earthquakes are observed to be preceded by significant quiescence on the faults on which they occur and by an intensification of activity at distance. It is likely that the fluctuations are due to the nature of fractures on individual faults of the network of faults. There are significant inhomogeneities on these faults, which we assume will have an important influence on the nature of self-organization of seismicity. The principal source of the inhomogeneity on the large scale is the influence of geometry--i.e., of the nonplanarity of faults and the system of faults.

Transcription termination at intrinsic terminators: the role of the RNA hairpin.

Intrinsic termination of transcription in Escherichia coli involves the formation of an RNA hairpin in the nascent RNA. This hairpin plays a central role in the release of the transcript and polymerase at intrinsic termination sites on the DNA template. We have created variants of the lambda tR2 terminator hairpin and examined the relationship between the structure and stability of this hairpin and the template positions and efficiencies of termination. The results were used to test the simple nucleic acid destabilization model of Yager and von Hippel and showed that this model must be modified to provide a distinct role for the rU-rich sequence in the nascent RNA, since a perfect palindromic sequence that is sufficiently long to form an RNA hairpin that could destabilize the entire putative 12-bp RNA-DNA hybrid does not trigger termination at the expected positions. Rather, our results show that both a stable terminator hairpin and the run of 6-8 rU residues that immediately follows are required for effective intrinsic termination and that termination occurs at specific and invariant template positions relative to these two components. Possible structural or kinetic modifications of the simple model are proposed in the light of these findings and of recent results implicating "inchworming" and possible conformational heterogeneity of transcription complexes in intrinsic termination. Thus, these findings argue that the structure and dimensions of the hairpin are important determinants of the termination-elongation decision and suggest that a complete mechanism is likely to involve specific interactions of the polymerase, the RNA terminator hairpin, and, perhaps, the dT-rich template sequence that codes for the run of rU residues at the 3' end of the nascent transcript.

The ethylene hormone response in Arabidopsis: a eukaryotic two-component signaling system.

The simple gas ethylene affects numerous physiological processes in the growth and development of higher plants. With the use of molecular genetic approaches, we are beginning to learn how plants perceive ethylene and how this signal is transduced. Components of ethylene signal transduction are defined by ethylene response mutants in Arabidopsis thaliana. The genes corresponding to two of these mutants, etr1 and etr1, have been cloned. The ETR1 gene encodes a homolog of two-component regulators that are known almost exclusively in prokaryotes. The two-component regulators in prokaryotes are involved in the perception and transduction of a wide range of environmental signals leading to adaptive responses. The CTR1 gene encodes a homolog of the Raf family of serine/threonine protein kinases. Raf is part of a mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade known to regulate cell growth and development in mammals, worms, and flies. The ethylene response pathway may, therefore, exemplify a conserved protein kinase cascade regulated by a two-component system. The dominance of all known mutant alleles of ETR1 may be due to either constitutive activation of the ETR1 protein or dominant interference of wild-type activity. The discovery of Arabidopsis genes encoding proteins related to ETR1 suggests that the failure to recover recessive etr1 mutant alleles may be due to the presence of redundant genes.

Study of the role of retinoblastoma protein in terminal differentiation of murine erythroleukemia cells.

Hexamethylenebisacetamide-induced terminal differentiation of Friend virus-transformed murine erythroleukemia (MEL) cells can be inhibited by okadaic acid, an inhibitor of type 1 and type 2A protein phosphatases. The inhibition is shown to be correlated with prevention of dephosphorylation of retinoblastoma protein (pRB) in cells and bypass of G1 prolongation in the cell cycle. These results suggest that pRB-mediated G1 prolongation is necessary for MEL cells to commit to terminal differentiation. However, further experiments demonstrate that the simple cell cycle exit is not sufficient for commitment to terminal differentiation. Induction of dephosphorylation of pRB and subsequent G1 prolongation by forskolin does not lead MEL cells to differentiate. Additional pRB has been expressed in MEL cells by transfection with a neo-resistant plasmid containing RB cDNA under the control of a cytomegalovirus promoter. Exogenously expressed pRB is hyperphosphorylated in logarithmically growing MEL cells without any noticeable change in growth rate between the transfected cell line and the parental cell line. This result suggests that pRB in MEL cells is regulated by protein kinases and protein phosphatases and not by transcription.

Simple tandem DNA repeats and human genetic disease.

The human genome contains many repeated DNA sequences that vary in complexity of repeating unit from a single nucleotide to a whole gene. The repeat sequences can be widely dispersed or in simple tandem arrays. Arrays of up to 5 or 6 nt are known as simple tandem repeats, and these are widely dispersed and highly polymorphic. Members of one group of the simple tandem repeats, the trinucleotide repeats, can undergo an increase in copy number by a process of dynamic mutation. Dynamic mutations of the CCG trinucleotide give rise to one group of fragile sites on human chromosomes, the rare folate-sensitive group. One member of this group, the fragile X (FRAXA) is responsible for the most common familial form of mental retardation. Another member of the group FRAXE is responsible for a rarer mild form of mental retardation. Similar mutations of AGC repeats give rise to a number of neurological disorders. The expanded repeats are unstable between generations and somatically. The intergenerational instability gives rise to unusual patterns of inheritance--particularly anticipation, the increasing severity and/or earlier age of onset of the disorder in successive generations. Dynamic mutations have been found only in the human species, and possible reasons for this are considered. The mechanism of dynamic mutation is discussed, and a number of observations of simple tandem repeat mutation that could assist in understanding this phenomenon are commented on.

Applicazione della spettrometria di massa MALDI-TOF in microbiologia clinica

Riassunto La spettrometria di massa (MS) nata negli anni ’70 trova oggi, grazie alla tecnologia Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization-Time of Flight (MALDI-TOF), importanti applicazioni in diversi settori: biotecnologico (per la caratterizzazione ed il controllo di qualità di proteine ricombinanti ed altre macromolecole), medico–clinico (per la diagnosi di laboratorio di malattie e per lo sviluppo di nuovi trattamenti terapeutici mirati), alimentare ed ambientale. Negli ultimi anni, questa tecnologia è diventata un potente strumento anche per la diagnosi di laboratorio in microbiologia clinica, rivoluzionando il flusso di lavoro per una rapida identificazione di batteri e funghi, sostituendo l’identificazione fenotipica convenzionale basata su saggi biochimici. Attualmente mediante MALDI-TOF MS sono possibili due diversi approcci per la caratterizzazione dei microrganismi: (1) confronto degli spettri (“mass spectra”) con banche dati contenenti profili di riferimento (“database fingerprints”) e (2) “matching” di bio-marcatori con banche dati proteomiche (“proteome database”). Recentemente, la tecnologia MALDI-TOF, oltre alla sua applicazione classica nell’identificazione di microrganismi, è stata utilizzata per individuare, indirettamente, meccanismi di resistenza agli antibiotici. Primo scopo di questo studio è stato verificare e dimostrare l’efficacia identificativa della metodica MALDI-TOF MS mediante approccio di comparazione degli spettri di differenti microrganismi di interesse medico per i quali l’identificazione risultava impossibile a causa della completa assenza o presenza limitata, di spettri di riferimento all’interno della banca dati commerciale associata allo strumento. In particolare, tale scopo è stato raggiunto per i batteri appartenenti a spirochete del genere Borrelia e Leptospira, a miceti filamentosi (dermatofiti) e protozoi (Trichomonas vaginalis). Secondo scopo di questo studio è stato valutare il secondo approccio identificativo basato sulla ricerca di specifici marcatori per differenziare parassiti intestinali di interesse medico per i quali non è disponibile una banca dati commerciale di riferimento e la sua creazione risulterebbe particolarmente difficile e complessa, a causa della complessità del materiale biologico di partenza analizzato e del terreno di coltura nei quali questi protozoi sono isolati. Terzo ed ultimo scopo di questo studio è stata la valutazione dell’applicabilità della spettrometria di massa con tecnologia MALDI-TOF per lo studio delle resistenze batteriche ai carbapenemi. In particolare, è stato messo a punto un saggio di idrolisi dei carbapenemi rilevata mediante MALDI-TOF MS in grado di determinare indirettamente la produzione di carbapenemasi in Enterobacteriaceae. L’efficacia identificativa della metodica MALDI-TOF mediante l’approccio di comparazione degli spettri è stata dimostrata in primo luogo per batteri appartenenti al genere Borrelia. La banca dati commerciale dello strumento MALDI-TOF MS in uso presso il nostro laboratorio includeva solo 3 spettri di riferimento appartenenti alle specie B. burgdorferi ss, B. spielmani e B. garinii. L’implementazione del “database” con specie diverse da quelle già presenti ha permesso di colmare le lacune identificative dovute alla mancanza di spettri di riferimento di alcune tra le specie di Borrelia più diffuse in Europa (B. afzelii) e nel mondo (come ad esempio B. hermsii, e B. japonica). Inoltre l’implementazione con spettri derivanti da ceppi di riferimento di specie già presenti nel “database” ha ulteriormente migliorato l’efficacia identificativa del sistema. Come atteso, il ceppo di isolamento clinico di B. lusitaniae (specie non presente nel “database”) è stato identificato solo a livello di genere corroborando, grazie all’assenza di mis-identificazione, la robustezza della “nuova” banca dati. I risultati ottenuti analizzando i profili proteici di ceppi di Borrelia spp. di isolamento clinico, dopo integrazione del “database” commerciale, indicano che la tecnologia MALDI-TOF potrebbe essere utilizzata come rapida, economica ed affidabile alternativa ai metodi attualmente utilizzati per identificare ceppi appartenenti a questo genere. Analogamente, per il genere Leptospira dopo la creazione ex-novo della banca dati “home-made”, costruita con i 20 spettri derivati dai 20 ceppi di riferimento utilizzati, è stata ottenuta una corretta identificazione a livello di specie degli stessi ceppi ri-analizzati in un esperimento indipendente condotto in doppio cieco. Il dendrogramma costruito con i 20 MSP-Spectra implementati nella banca dati è formato da due rami principali: il primo formato dalla specie non patogena L. biflexa e dalla specie a patogenicità intermedia L. fainei ed il secondo che raggruppa insieme le specie patogene L. interrogans, L. kirschneri, L. noguchii e L. borgpetersenii. Il secondo gruppo è ulteriormente suddiviso in due rami, contenenti rispettivamente L. borgpetersenii in uno e L. interrogans, L. kirschneri e L. noguchii nell’altro. Quest’ultimo, a sua volta, è suddiviso in due rami ulteriori: il primo comprendente la sola specie L. noguchii, il secondo le specie L. interrogans e L. kirshneri non separabili tra loro. Inoltre, il dendrogramma costruito con gli MSP-Spectra dei ceppi appartenenti ai generi Borrelia e Leptospira acquisiti in questo studio, e appartenenti al genere Brachyspira (implementati in un lavoro precedentemente condotto) mostra tre gruppi principali separati tra loro, uno per ogni genere, escludendo possibili mis-identificazioni tra i 3 differenti generi di spirochete. Un’analisi più approfondita dei profili proteici ottenuti dall’analisi ha mostrato piccole differenze per ceppi della stessa specie probabilmente dovute ai diversi pattern proteici dei distinti sierotipi, come confermato dalla successiva analisi statistica, che ha evidenziato picchi sierotipo-specifici. È stato, infatti, possibile mediante la creazione di un modello statistico dedicato ottenere un “pattern” di picchi discriminanti in grado di differenziare a livello di sierotipo sia i ceppi di L. interrogans sia i ceppi di L. borgpetersenii saggiati, rispettivamente. Tuttavia, non possiamo concludere che i picchi discriminanti da noi riportati siano universalmente in grado di identificare il sierotipo dei ceppi di L. interrogans ed L. borgpetersenii; i picchi trovati, infatti, sono il risultato di un’analisi condotta su uno specifico pannello di sierotipi. È stato quindi dimostrato che attuando piccoli cambiamenti nei parametri standardizzati come l’utilizzo di un modello statistico e di un programma dedicato applicato nella routine diagnostica è possibile utilizzare la spettrometria di massa MALDI-TOF per una rapida ed economica identificazione anche a livello di sierotipo. Questo può significativamente migliorare gli approcci correntemente utilizzati per monitorare l’insorgenza di focolai epidemici e per la sorveglianza degli agenti patogeni. Analogamente a quanto dimostrato per Borrelia e Leptospira, l’implementazione della banca dati dello spettrometro di massa con spettri di riferimento di miceti filamentosi (dermatofiti) si è rilevata di particolare importanza non solo per l’identificazione di tutte le specie circolanti nella nostra area ma anche per l’identificazione di specie la cui frequenza nel nostro Paese è in aumento a causa dei flussi migratori dalla zone endemiche (M. audouinii, T. violaceum e T. sudanense). Inoltre, l’aggiornamento del “database” ha consentito di superare la mis-identificazione dei ceppi appartenenti al complesso T. mentagrophytes (T. interdigitale e T. mentagrophytes) con T. tonsurans, riscontrata prima dell’implementazione della banca dati commerciale. Il dendrogramma ottenuto dai 24 spettri implementati appartenenti a 13 specie di dermatofiti ha rivelato raggruppamenti che riflettono quelli costruiti su base filogenetica. Sulla base dei risultati ottenuti mediante sequenziamento della porzione della regione ITS del genoma fungino non è stato possibile distinguere T. interdigitale e T. mentagrophytes, conseguentemente anche gli spettri di queste due specie presentavano picchi dello stesso peso molecoalre. Da sottolineare che il dendrogramma costruito con i 12 profili proteici già inclusi nel database commerciale e con i 24 inseriti nel nuovo database non riproduce l’albero filogenetico per alcune specie del genere Tricophyton: gli spettri MSP già presenti nel database e quelli aggiunti delle specie T. interdigitale e T. mentagrophytes raggruppano separatamente. Questo potrebbe spiegare le mis-identificazioni di T. interdigitale e T. mentagrophytes con T. tonsurans ottenute prima dell’implementazione del database. L’efficacia del sistema identificativo MALDI-TOF è stata anche dimostrata per microrganismi diversi da batteri e funghi per i quali la metodica originale è stata sviluppata. Sebbene tale sistema identificativo sia stato applicato con successo a Trichomonas vaginalis è stato necessario apportare modifiche nei parametri standard previsti per l’identificazione di batteri e funghi. Le interferenze riscontrate tra i profili proteici ottenuti per i due terreni utilizzati per la coltura di questo protozoo e per i ceppi di T. vaginalis hanno, infatti, reso necessario l’utilizzo di nuovi parametri per la creazione degli spettri di riferimento (MSP-Spectra). L’importanza dello sviluppo del nuovo metodo risiede nel fatto che è possibile identificare sulla base del profilo proteico (e non sulla base di singoli marcatori) microorganismi cresciuti su terreni complessi che potrebbero presentare picchi nell'intervallo di peso molecolare utilizzato a scopo identificativo: metaboliti, pigmenti e nutrienti presenti nel terreno possono interferire con il processo di cristallizzazione e portare ad un basso punteggio identificativo. Per T. vaginalis, in particolare, la “sottrazione” di picchi dovuti a molecole riconducibili al terreno di crescita utilizzato, è stata ottenuta escludendo dall'identificazione l'intervallo di peso molecolare compreso tra 3-6 kDa, permettendo la corretta identificazione di ceppi di isolamento clinico sulla base del profilo proteico. Tuttavia, l’elevata concentrazione di parassita richiesta (105 trofozoiti/ml) per una corretta identificazione, difficilmente ottenibile in vivo, ha impedito l’identificazione di ceppi di T. vaginalis direttamente in campioni clinici. L’approccio identificativo mediante individuazione di specifici marcatori proteici (secondo approccio identificativo) è stato provato ed adottato in questo studio per l’identificazione e la differenziazione di ceppi di Entamoeba histolytica (ameba patogena) ed Entamoeba dispar (ameba non patogena), specie morfologiacamente identiche e distinguibili solo mediante saggi molecolari (PCR) aventi come bersaglio il DNA-18S, che codifica per l’RNA della subunità ribosomiale minore. Lo sviluppo di tale applicazione ha consentito di superare l’impossibilità della creazione di una banca dati dedicata, a causa della complessità del materiale fecale di partenza e del terreno di coltura impiagato per l’isolamento, e di identificare 5 picchi proteici in grado di differenziare E. histolytica da E. dispar. In particolare, l’analisi statistica ha mostrato 2 picchi specifici per E. histolytica e 3 picchi specifici per E. dispar. L’assenza dei 5 picchi discriminanti trovati per E. histolytica e E. dispar nei profili dei 3 differenti terreni di coltura utilizzati in questo studio (terreno axenico LYI-S-2 e terreno di Robinson con e senza E. coli) permettono di considerare questi picchi buoni marcatori in grado di differenziare le due specie. La corrispondenza dei picchi con il PM di due specifiche proteine di E. histolytica depositate in letteratura (Amoebapore A e un “unknown putative protein” di E. histolytica ceppo di riferimento HM-1:IMSS-A) conferma la specificità dei picchi di E. histolytica identificati mediante analisi MALDI-TOF MS. Lo stesso riscontro non è stato possibile per i picchi di E. dispar in quanto nessuna proteina del PM di interesse è presente in GenBank. Tuttavia, va ricordato che non tutte le proteine E. dispar sono state ad oggi caratterizzate e depositate in letteratura. I 5 marcatori hanno permesso di differenziare 12 dei 13 ceppi isolati da campioni di feci e cresciuti in terreno di Robinson confermando i risultati ottenuti mediante saggio di Real-Time PCR. Per un solo ceppo di isolamento clinico di E. histolytica l’identificazione, confermata mediante sequenziamento della porzione 18S-rDNA, non è stata ottenuta mediante sistema MALDI-TOF MS in quanto non sono stati trovati né i picchi corrispondenti a E. histolytica né i picchi corrispondenti a E. dispar. Per questo ceppo è possibile ipotizzare la presenza di mutazioni geno/fenotipiche a livello delle proteine individuate come marcatori specifici per E. histolytica. Per confermare questa ipotesi sarebbe necessario analizzare un numero maggiore di ceppi di isolamento clinico con analogo profilo proteico. L’analisi condotta a diversi tempi di incubazione del campione di feci positivo per E. histolytica ed E. dipar ha mostrato il ritrovamento dei 5 picchi discriminanti solo dopo 12 ore dall’inoculo del campione nel terreno iniziale di Robinson. Questo risultato suggerisce la possibile applicazione del sistema MALDI-TOF MS per identificare ceppi di isolamento clinico di E. histolytica ed E. dipar nonostante la presenza di materiale fecale che materialmente può disturbare e rendere difficile l’interpretazione dello spettro ottenuto mediante analisi MALDI-TOF MS. Infine in questo studio è stata valutata l’applicabilità della tecnologia MALDI-TOF MS come saggio fenotipico rapido per la determinazione di ceppi produttori di carbapenemasi, verificando l'avvenuta idrolisi del meropenem (carbapeneme di riferimento utilizzato in questo studio) a contatto con i ceppi di riferimento e ceppi di isolamento clinico potenzialmente produttori di carbapenemasi dopo la messa a punto di un protocollo analitico dedicato. Il saggio di idrolisi del meropenem mediante MALDI-TOF MS ha dimostrato la presenza o l’assenza indiretta di carbapenemasi nei 3 ceppi di riferimento e nei 1219 (1185 Enterobacteriaceae e 34 non-Enterobacteriaceae) ceppi di isolamento clinico inclusi nello studio. Nessuna interferenza è stata riscontrata per i ceppi di Enterobacteriaceae variamente resistenti ai tre carbapenemi ma risultati non produttori di carbapenemasi mediante i saggi fenotipici comunemente impiegati nella diagnostica routinaria di laboratorio: nessuna idrolisi del farmaco è stata infatti osservata al saggio di idrolisi mediante MALDI-TOF MS. In un solo caso (ceppo di K. pneumoniae N°1135) è stato ottenuto un profilo anomalo in quanto presenti sia i picchi del farmaco intatto che quelli del farmaco idrolizzato. Per questo ceppo resistente ai tre carbapenemi saggiati, negativo ai saggi fenotipici per la presenza di carbapenemasi, è stata dimostrata la presenza del gene blaKPC mediante Real-Time PCR. Per questo ceppo si può ipotizzare la presenza di mutazioni a carico del gene blaKPC che sebbene non interferiscano con il suo rilevamento mediante PCR (Real-Time PCR positiva), potrebbero condizionare l’attività della proteina prodotta (Saggio di Hodge modificato e Test di Sinergia negativi) riducendone la funzionalità come dimostrato, mediante analisi MALDI-TOF MS, dalla presenza dei picchi relativi sia all’idrolisi del farmaco sia dei picchi relativi al farmaco intatto. Questa ipotesi dovrebbe essere confermata mediante sequenziamento del gene blaKPC e successiva analisi strutturale della sequenza amminoacidica deducibile. L’utilizzo della tecnologia MALDI-TOF MS per la verifica dell’avvenuta idrolisi del maropenem è risultato un saggio fenotipico indiretto in grado di distinguere, al pari del test di Hodge modificato impiegato comunemente nella routine diagnostica in microbiologia, un ceppo produttore di carbapenemasi da un ceppo non produttore sia per scopi diagnostici che per la sorveglianza epidemiologica. L’impiego del MALDI-TOF MS ha mostrato, infatti, diversi vantaggi rispetto ai metodi convenzionali (Saggio di Hodge modificato e Test di Sinergia) impiegati nella routine diagnostica di laboratorio i quali richiedono personale esperto per l’interpretazione del risultato e lunghi tempi di esecuzione e di conseguenza di refertazione. La semplicità e la facilità richieste per la preparazione dei campioni e l’immediata acquisizione dei dati rendono questa tecnica un metodo accurato e rapido. Inoltre, il metodo risulta conveniente dal punto di vista economico, con un costo totale stimato di 1,00 euro per ceppo analizzato. Tutte queste considerazioni pongono questa metodologia in posizione centrale in ambito microbiologico anche nel caso del rilevamento di ceppi produttori di carbapenemasi. Indipendentemente dall’approccio identificativo utilizzato, comparato con i metodi convenzionali il MALDI-TOF MS conferisce in molti casi un guadagno in termini di tempo di lavoro tecnico (procedura pre-analititca per la preparazione dei campioni) e di tempo di ottenimento dei risultati (procedura analitica automatizzata). Questo risparmio di tempo si accentua quando sono analizzati in contemporanea un maggior numero di isolati. Inoltre, la semplicità e la facilità richieste per la preparazione dei campioni e l’immediata acquisizione dei dati rendono questo un metodo di identificazione accurato e rapido risultando più conveniente anche dal punto di vista economico, con un costo totale di 0,50 euro (materiale consumabile) per ceppo analizzato. I risultati ottenuti dimostrano che la spettrometria di massa MALDI-TOF sta diventando uno strumento importante in microbiologia clinica e sperimentale, data l’elevata efficacia identificativa, grazie alla disponibilità sia di nuove banche dati commerciali sia di aggiornamenti delle stesse da parte di diversi utenti, e la possibilità di rilevare con successo anche se in modo indiretto le antibiotico-resistenze.

Imputação de dados em experimentos multiambientais: novos algoritmos utilizando a decomposição por valores singulares

As análises biplot que utilizam os modelos de efeitos principais aditivos com inter- ação multiplicativa (AMMI) requerem matrizes de dados completas, mas, frequentemente os ensaios multiambientais apresentam dados faltantes. Nesta tese são propostas novas metodologias de imputação simples e múltipla que podem ser usadas para analisar da- dos desbalanceados em experimentos com interação genótipo por ambiente (G×E). A primeira, é uma nova extensão do método de validação cruzada por autovetor (Bro et al, 2008). A segunda, corresponde a um novo algoritmo não-paramétrico obtido por meio de modificações no método de imputação simples desenvolvido por Yan (2013). Também é incluído um estudo que considera sistemas de imputação recentemente relatados na literatura e os compara com o procedimento clássico recomendado para imputação em ensaios (G×E), ou seja, a combinação do algoritmo de Esperança-Maximização com os modelos AMMI ou EM-AMMI. Por último, são fornecidas generalizações da imputação simples descrita por Arciniegas-Alarcón et al. (2010) que mistura regressão com aproximação de posto inferior de uma matriz. Todas as metodologias têm como base a decomposição por valores singulares (DVS), portanto, são livres de pressuposições distribucionais ou estruturais. Para determinar o desempenho dos novos esquemas de imputação foram realizadas simulações baseadas em conjuntos de dados reais de diferentes espécies, com valores re- tirados aleatoriamente em diferentes porcentagens e a qualidade das imputações avaliada com distintas estatísticas. Concluiu-se que a DVS constitui uma ferramenta útil e flexível na construção de técnicas eficientes que contornem o problema de perda de informação em matrizes experimentais.