Minimizing the Threat of a Positive Majority Deficit in Two-tier Voting Systems with Equipopulous Units

The mean majority deficit in a two-tier voting system is a function of the partition of the population. We derive a new square-root rule: For odd-numbered population sizes and equipopulous units the mean majority deficit is maximal when the member size of the units in the partition is close to the square root of the population size. Furthermore, within the partitions into roughly equipopulous units, partitions with small even numbers of units or small even-sized units yield high mean majority deficits. We discuss the implications for the winner-takes-all system in the US Electoral College.

Moral Politics: The Religious Factor in Referenda Voting

This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1,000 respondents each conducted after every referendum on moral policies in Switzerland between 1992 and 2012. Results based on cross-classified multilevel models show that religious behaving instead of nominal religious belonging plays a crucial role in decision making on moral issues. This supports the idea that the traditional confessional cleavage is replaced by a new religious cleavage that divides the religious from the secular. This newer cleavage is characterized by party alignments that extend from electoral to direct democratic voting behavior. Overall, our study lends support to previous findings drawn from American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion.

Strategic use of serology for the diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis after intradermal skin testing

Diagnostic tests based on cell-mediated immunity are used in programmes for eradication of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis). Serological assays could be applied as ancillary methods to detect infected animals. Our objective was to evaluate two serological techniques: M. bovis Ab Test (IDEXX, USA) and Enferplex™ TB assay (Enfer, Ireland) in animals tested simultaneously with the single and comparative intradermal tests and the interferon-gamma assay. This work was performed at two stages. First, a preliminary panel of samples collected prior to intradermal tests from tuberculosis-free (n=60) and M. bovis-infected herds (n=78) was assayed, obtaining high specificity: 100% (M. bovis Ab Test) and 98.3% (Enferplex TB assay) but low sensitivity (detection of M. bovis infected animals): 23.9% (M. bovis Ab Test) and 32.6% (Enferplex TB assay). Subsequently, the use of serological techniques was further studied in two herds with M. bovis infection (n=77) using samples collected prior to, and 72 h and 15 days after PPD inoculation. The highest level of detection of infected animals for serology was achieved at 15 days post-intradermal tests taking advantage of the anamnestic effect: 70.4% and 85.2% in herd A, and 66.7% and 83.3% in herd B, using M. bovis Ab Test and Enferplex TB assay, respectively. Quantitative results (average values obtained with M. bovis Ab Test ELISA and degree of positivity obtained with Enferplex TB assay) were higher in animals showing lesions compatible with tuberculosis. No significant differences were observed in the number of confirmed infected animals detected with either serological technique.

Kidney disease in antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive adults with high CD4 counts: prevalence and predictors of kidney disease at enrolment in the INSIGHT Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial.

OBJECTIVES HIV infection has been associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Little is known about the prevalence of CKD in individuals with high CD4 cell counts prior to initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to address this knowledge gap. METHODS We describe the prevalence of CKD among 4637 ART-naïve adults (mean age 36.8 years) with CD4 cell counts > 500 cells/μL at enrolment in the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study. CKD was defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and/or dipstick urine protein ≥ 1+. Logistic regression was used to identify baseline characteristics associated with CKD. RESULTS Among 286 [6.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5%, 6.9%] participants with CKD, the majority had isolated proteinuria. A total of 268 participants had urine protein ≥ 1+, including 41 with urine protein ≥ 2+. Only 22 participants (0.5%) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , including four who also had proteinuria. Baseline characteristics independently associated with CKD included diabetes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.73; 95% CI 1.05, 2.85], hypertension (aOR 1.82; 95% CI 1.38, 2.38), and race/ethnicity (aOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.37, 0.93 for Hispanic vs. white). CONCLUSIONS We observed a low prevalence of CKD associated with traditional CKD risk factors among ART-naïve clinical trial participants with CD4 cell counts > 500 cells/μL.