The role of parametric assumptions in adaptive Bayesian estimation.

Variants of adaptive Bayesian procedures for estimating the 5% point on a psychometric function were studied by simulation. Bias and standard error were the criteria to evaluate performance. The results indicated a superiority of (a) uniform priors, (b) model likelihood functions that are odd symmetric about threshold and that have parameter values larger than their counterparts in the psychometric function, (c) stimulus placement at the prior mean, and (d) estimates defined as the posterior mean. Unbiasedness arises in only 10 trials, and 20 trials ensure constant standard errors. The standard error of the estimates equals 0.617 times the inverse of the square root of the number of trials. Other variants yielded bias and larger standard errors.

Stopping rules in Bayesian adaptive threshold estimation

Threshold estimation with sequential procedures is justifiable on the surmise that the index used in the so-called dynamic stopping rule has diagnostic value for identifying when an accurate estimate has been obtained. The performance of five types of Bayesian sequential procedure was compared here to that of an analogous fixed-length procedure. Indices for use in sequential procedures were: (1) the width of the Bayesian probability interval, (2) the posterior standard deviation, (3) the absolute change, (4) the average change, and (5) the number of sign fluctuations. A simulation study was carried out to evaluate which index renders estimates with less bias and smaller standard error at lower cost (i.e. lower average number of trials to completion), in both yes–no and two-alternative forced-choice (2AFC) tasks. We also considered the effect of the form and parameters of the psychometric function and its similarity with themodel function assumed in the procedure. Our results show that sequential procedures do not outperform fixed-length procedures in yes–no tasks. However, in 2AFC tasks, sequential procedures not based on sign fluctuations all yield minimally better estimates than fixed-length procedures, although most of the improvement occurs with short runs that render undependable estimates and the differences vanish when the procedures run for a number of trials (around 70) that ensures dependability. Thus, none of the indices considered here (some of which are widespread) has the diagnostic value that would justify its use. In addition, difficulties of implementation make sequential procedures unfit as alternatives to fixed-length procedures.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment cores EW9302-JPC1 and EW9302-JPC2

Results from two deep sea cores from northeast of Newfoundland at 1251 and 2527 m water depth, respectively, indicate that during the time period from 160,000 to 10,000 years BP, ice rafting events in the Labrador Sea were accompanied by rapid variations in deep and surface water circulation. Twelve ice-rafting events occurred, each coinciding with high concentrations of detrital carbonate and oxygen isotopic depletion of both surface and bottom waters. Eleven of these can be correlated with the North Atlantic Heinrich events H1-H11. The remaining very conspicuous ice-rafting event took place early in MIS substage 5e, at a time when the planktic faunal assemblage suggests marked warming of the sea surface. In the shallower core, benthic d13C values rise from a minimum during the deglaciation to peak substage 5e values following the last ice-rafting event, indicating that the ventilation of intermediate depths was renewed after the deglaciation was complete and continued throughout substage 5e. The benthic foraminifera suggest that this well-ventilated water mass was comparable to the modern Labrador Sea Water (LSW). The benthic faunas suggest that a relatively warm intermediate water mass entered the SE Labrador Sea during Heinrich events. Generally low benthic d13C values indicate that this water mass was poorly ventilated and rich in inorganic nutrients. Isotope data and benthic faunal distributions indicate that North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formed in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea reached the SE Labrador Sea between the Heinrich events.

Ocean acidification and its potential effects on the early life-history of non-calcifying and calcifying echinoderm (Odontaster validus, Patiriella regularis and Arachnoides placenta) larvae, 2011

Ocean acidification, as a result of increased atmospheric CO2, has the potential to adversely affect the larval stages of many marine organisms and hence have profound effects on marine ecosystems. This is the first study of its kind to investigate the effects of ocean acidification on the early life-history stages of three echinoderms species, two asteroids and one irregular echinoid. Potential latitudinal variations on the effects of ocean acidification were also investigated by selecting a polar species (Odontaster validus), a temperate species (Patiriella regularis), and a tropical species (Arachnoides placenta). The effects of reduced seawater pH levels on the fertilization of gametes, larval survival and morphometrics on the aforementioned species were evaluated under experimental conditions. The pH levels considered for this research include ambient seawater (pH 8.1 or pH 8.2), levels predicted for 2100 (pH 7.7 and pH 7.6) and the extreme pH of 7.0, adjusted by bubbling CO2 gas into filtered seawater. Fertilization for Odontaster validus and Patiriella regularis for the predicted scenarios for 2100 was robust, whereas fertilization was significantly reduced in Arachnoides placenta. Larval survival was robust for the three species at pH 7.8, but numbers declined when pH dropped below 7.6. Normal A. placenta larvae developed in pH 7.8, whereas smaller larvae were observed for O. validus and P. regularis under the same pH treatment. Seawater pH levels below 7.6 resulted in smaller and underdeveloped larvae for all three species. The greatest effects were expected for the Antarctic asteroid O. validus but overall the tropical sand dollar A. placenta was the most affected by the reduction in seawater pH. The effects of ocean acidification on the asteroids O. validus and P. regulars, and the sand dollar A. placenta are species-specific. Several parameters, such as taxonomic differences, physiology, genetic makeup and the population's evolutionary history may have contributed to this variability. This study highlights the vulnerability of the early developmental stages and the complexity of ocean acidification. However, future research is needed to understand the effects at individual, community and ecosystem levels.

Effects of hypercapnia on aspects of feeding, nutrition, and growth in the edible sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus held in culture

Land-based aquaculture facilities experience occasional hypercapnic conditions due to the accumulation of the metabolic waste product carbon dioxide. Pre-gonadal Lytechinus variegatus (horizontal diameter=20 mm) were exposed to control (608 µatm pCO2, pH 8.1) or hypercapnic conditions (1738 µatm pCO2, pH 7.7) in synthetic seawater for 14 weeks. Sea urchins exposed to hypercapnic conditions exhibited significantly slower growth (reduced dry matter production), primarily due to reduced test production. Higher fecal production rates and lower ash absorption efficiency (%) in individuals exposed to hypercapnic conditions suggest the ability to process or retain dietary carbonates may have been affected. Significant increases in neutral lipid storage in the gut and increased soluble protein storage in the gonads of individuals exposed to hypercapnic conditions suggest alterations in nutrient metabolism and storage. Furthermore, organic production and energy allocation increased in the lantern of those individuals exposed to hypercapnic conditions. These results suggest chronic exposure to hypercapnic conditions alters nutrient allocation to organ systems and functions, leading to changes in somatic and reproductive production.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, and Lithophyllum sp. and Feldmannia spp. coverage and dry weight during experiments, 2009

Climate-driven change represents the cumulative effect of global through local-scale conditions, and understanding their manifestation at local scales can empower local management. Change in the dominance of habitats is often the product of local nutrient pollution that occurs at relatively local scales (i.e. catchment scale), a critical scale of management at which global impacts will manifest. We tested whether forecasted global-scale change [elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and subsequent ocean acidification] and local stressors (elevated nutrients) can combine to accelerate the expansion of filamentous turfs at the expense of calcifying algae (kelp understorey). Our results not only support this model of future change, but also highlight the synergistic effects of future CO2 and nutrient concentrations on the abundance of turfs. These results suggest that global and local stressors need to be assessed in meaningful combinations so that the anticipated effects of climate change do not create the false impression that, however complex, climate change will produce smaller effects than reality. These findings empower local managers because they show that policies of reducing local stressors (e.g. nutrient pollution) can reduce the effects of global stressors not under their governance (e.g. ocean acidification). The connection between research and government policy provides an example whereby knowledge (and decision making) across local through global scales provides solutions to some of the most vexing challenges for attaining social goals of sustainability, biological conservation and economic development.

Coral energy reserves and calcification in a high-CO2 world at two temperatures

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA) and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate) together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm), and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0°C) within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53%) in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

Direct linkage between dimethyl sulfide production and microzooplankton grazing, resulting from prey composition change under high partial pressure of carbon dioxide conditions

Oceanic dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the enzymatic cleavage product of the algal metabolite dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and is the most abundant form of sulfur released into the atmosphere. To investigate the effects of two emerging environmental threats (ocean acidification and warming) on marine DMS production, we performed a large-scale perturbation experiment in a coastal environment. At both ambient temperature and 2 °C warmer, an increase in partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in seawater (160-830 ppmv pCO2) favored the growth of large diatoms, which outcompeted other phytoplankton species in a natural phytoplankton assemblage and reduced the growth rate of smaller, DMSP-rich phototrophic dinoflagellates. This decreased the grazing rate of heterotrophic dinoflagellates (ubiquitous micrograzers), resulting in reduced DMS production via grazing activity. Both the magnitude and sign of the effect of pCO2 on possible future oceanic DMS production were strongly linked to pCO2-induced alterations to the phytoplankton community and the cellular DMSP content of the dominant species and its association with micrograzers.

Short-term metabolic and growth responses of the cold-water coral lophelia pertusa to ocean acidification

Cold-water corals are amongst the most three-dimensionally complex deep-sea habitats known and are associated with high local biodiversity. Despite their importance as ecosystem engineers, little is known about how these organisms will respond to projected ocean acidification. Since preindustrial times, average ocean pH has already decreased from 8.2 to ~ 8.1. Predicted CO2 emissions will decrease this by up to another 0.3 pH units by the end of the century. This decrease in pH may have a wide range of impacts upon marine life, and in particular upon calcifiers such as cold-water corals. Lophelia pertusa is the most widespread cold-water coral (CWC) species, frequently found in the North Atlantic. Data here relate to a short term data set (21 days) on metabolism and net calcification rates of freshly collected L. pertusa from Mingulay Reef Complex, Scotland. These data from freshly collected L. pertusa from the Mingulay Reef Complex will help define the impact of ocean acidification upon the growth, physiology and structural integrity of this key reef framework forming species.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and morphometric coordinates and morphology of the control 8-arm pluteus of brittlestar Ophiothrix fragilis, 2008

The world's oceans are slowly becoming more acidic. In the last 150 yr, the pH of the oceans has dropped by ~0.1 units, which is equivalent to a 25% increase in acidity. Modelling predicts the pH of the oceans to fall by 0.2 to 0.4 units by the year 2100. These changes will have significant effects on marine organisms, especially those with calcareous skeletons such as echinoderms. Little is known about the possible long-term impact of predicted pH changes on marine invertebrate larval development. Here we predict the consequences of increased CO2 (corresponding to pH drops of 0.2 and 0.4 units) on the larval development of the brittlestar Ophiothrix fragilis, which is a keystone species occurring in high densities and stable populations throughout the shelf seas of northwestern Europe (eastern Atlantic). Acidification by 0.2 units induced 100% larval mortality within 8 d while control larvae showed 70% survival over the same period. Exposure to low pH also resulted in a temporal decrease in larval size as well as abnormal development and skeletogenesis (abnormalities, asymmetry, altered skeletal proportions). If oceans continue to acidify as expected, ecosystems of the Atlantic dominated by this keystone species will be seriously threatened with major changes in many key benthic and pelagic ecosystems. Thus, it may be useful to monitor O. fragilis populations and initiate conservation if needed.

(Table 1) N-isotope record of planktonc foraminifera of sediment core MD02-2550C2

Constraining variations in marine N2-fixation over glacial-interglacial timescales is crucial for determining the role of the marine nitrogen cycle in modifying ocean productivity and climate, yet paleo-records from N2-fixation regions are sparse. Here we present new nitrogen isotope (d15N) records of bulk sediment and foraminifera test-bound (FB) nitrogen extending back to the last ice age from the oligotrophic Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Previous studies indicate a substantial terrestrial input during the last ice age and early deglacial, for which we attempt to correct the bulk sediment d15N using its observed relationship with the C/N ratio. Both corrected bulk and FB-d15N reveal a substantial glacial-to-Holocene decrease of d15N toward Holocene values of around 2.5 per mil, similar to observations from the Caribbean. This d15N change is most likely due to a glacial-to-Holocene increase in regional N2-fixation. A deglacial peak in the FB-d15N of thermocline dwelling foraminifera Orbulina universa probably reflects a whole ocean increase in the d15N of nitrate during deglaciation. The d15N of the surface dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the corrected bulk d15N show little sign of this deglacial peak, both decreasing from last glacial values much earlier than does the d15N of O. universa; this may indicate that G. ruber and bulk N reflect the euphotic zone signal of an early local increase in N2-fixation. Our results add to the evidence that, during the last ice age, the larger iron input from dust did not lead to enhanced N2-fixation in this region. Rather, the glacial-to-Holocene decrease in d15N is best explained by a response of N2-fixation within the Atlantic to the deglacial increase in global ocean denitrification.

Foraminifera Mg/Ca, test weight and XDX for sediment core WIND28K

A record of deep-sea calcite saturation (D[CO3**-2]), derived from X-ray computed tomography-based foraminifer dissolution index, XDX, was constructed for the past 150 ka for a core from the deep (4157 m) tropical western Indian Ocean. G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei recorded a similar dissolution history, consistent with the process of calcite compensation. Peaks in calcite saturation (~15 µmol/kg higher than the present-day value) occurred during deglaciations and early in MIS 3. Dissolution maxima coincided with transitions to colder stages. The mass record of G. sacculifer better indicated preservation than did that of N. dutertrei or G. ruber. Dissolution-corrected Mg/Ca-derived SST records, like other SST records from marginal Indian Ocean sites, showed coolest temperatures of the last 150 ka in early MIS 3, when mixed layer temperatures were ~4°C lower than present SST. Temperatures recorded by N. dutertrei showed the thermocline to be ~4°C colder in MIS 3 compared to the Holocene (8 ka B.P.).

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Amphisorus hemprichii, Amphisorus kudakajimensis and Calcarina gaudichaudii during experiments, 2011

Ocean acidification, which like global warming is an outcome of anthropogenic CO2emissions, severely impacts marine calcifying organisms, especially those living in coral reef ecosystems. However, knowledge about the responses of reef calcifiers to ocean acidification is quite limited, although coral responses are known to be generally negative. In a culture experiment with two algal symbiont-bearing, reef-dwelling foraminifers, Amphisorus kudakajimensis and Calcarina gaudichaudii, in seawater under five different pCO2 conditions, 245, 375, 588, 763 and 907 µatm, maintained with a precise pCO2-controlling technique, net calcification of A. kudakajimensis was reduced under higher pCO2, whereas calcification of C. gaudichaudii generally increased with increased pCO2. In another culture experiment conducted in seawater in which bicarbonate ion concentrations were varied under a constant carbonate ion concentration, calcification was not significantly different between treatments in Amphisorus hemprichii, a species closely related to A. kudakajimensis, or in C. gaudichaudii. From these results, we concluded that carbonate ion and CO2 were the carbonate species that most affected growth ofAmphisorus and Calcarina, respectively. The opposite responses of these two foraminifer genera probably reflect different sensitivities to these carbonate species, which may be due to their different symbiotic algae.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and protein sports of barnicle Balanus amphitrite during experiments, 2011

The majority of benthic marine invertebrates have a complex life cycle, during which the pelagic larvae select a suitable substrate, attach to it, and then metamorphose into benthic adults. Anthropogenic ocean acidification (OA) is postulated to affect larval metamorphic success through an altered protein expression pattern (proteome structure) and post-translational modifications. To test this hypothesis, larvae of an economically and ecologically important barnacle species Balanus amphitrite, were cultured from nauplius to the cyprid stage in the present (control) and in the projected elevated concentrations of CO2 for the year 2100 (the OA treatment). Cyprid response to OA was analyzed at the total proteome level as well as two protein post-translational modification (phosphorylation and glycosylation) levels using a 2-DE based proteomic approach. The cyprid proteome showed OA-driven changes. Proteins that were differentially up or down regulated by OA come from three major groups, namely those related to energy-metabolism, respiration, and molecular chaperones, illustrating a potential strategy that the barnacle larvae may employ to tolerate OA stress. The differentially expressed proteins were tentatively identified as OA-responsive, effectively creating unique protein expression signatures for OA scenario of 2100. This study showed the promise of using a sentinel and non-model species to examine the impact of OA at the proteome level.