940 resultados para risk assessment


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There is no doubt that fraud in relation to land transactions is a problem that resonates amongst land academics, practitioners, and stakeholders involved in conveyancing. As each land registration and conveyancing process increasingly moves towards a fully electronic environment, we need to make sure that we understand and guard against the frauds that can occur. What this paper does is examine the types of fraud that have occurred in paper-based conveyancing systems in Australia and considers how they might be undertaken in the National Electronic Conveyancing System (NECS) that is currently under development. Whilst no system can ever be infallible, it is suggested that by correctly imposing the responsibility for identity verification on the appropriate individual, the conveyancing system adopted can achieve the optimum level of fairness in terms of allocation of responsibility and loss. As we sit on the cusp of a new era of electronic conveyancing, the framework suggested here provides a model for minimising the risks of forged mortgages and appropriately allocating the loss. Importantly it also recognises that the electronic environment will see new opportunities for those with criminal intent to undermine the integrity of land transactions. An appreciation of this now, can see the appropriate measures put in place to minimise the risk.

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The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

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The World Health Organization recommends that the majority of water monitoring laboratories in the world should test for E. coli daily since thermotolerant coliforms and E. coli are key indicators for risk assessment of recreational waters. Recently, we developed a new SNP method for typing E. coli strains, by which human-specific genotypes were identified. Here, we report the presence of these previously described specific SNP profiles in environmental water, sourced from the Coomera River, located on South East Queensland, Australia, over a period of two years. This study tested for the presence of human-specific E. coli to ascertain whether hydrologic and anthropogenic activity plays a key role in the pollution of the investigated watershed or whether the pollution is from other sources. We found six human-specific SNP profiles and one animal-specific SNP profile consistently across sampling sites and times. We have demonstrated that our SNP genotyping method is able to rapidly identify and characterise human- and animal-specific E. coli isolates in water sources.

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This paper discusses human factors issues of low cost railway level crossings in Australia. Several issues are discussed in this paper including safety at passive level railway crossings, human factors considerations associated with unavailability of a warning device, and a conceptual model for how safety could be compromised at railway level crossings following prolonged or frequent unavailability. The research plans to quantify safety risk to motorists at level crossings using a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) method, supported by data collected using an advanced driving simulator. This method aims to identify human error within tasks and task units identified as part of the task analysis process. It is anticipated that by modelling driver behaviour the current study will be able to quantify meaningful task variability including temporal parameters, between participants and within participants. The process of complex tasks such as driving through a level crossing is fundamentally context-bound. Therefore this study also aims to quantify those performance-shaping factors that contribute to vehicle train collisions by highlighting changes in the task units and driver physiology. Finally we will also consider a number of variables germane to ensuring external validity of our results. Without this inclusion, such an analysis could seriously underestimate the probabilistic risk assessment.

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Book summary: In a constantly evolving context of performance management, accountability and risk assessment, police organisations and frontline police officers are required to pay careful attention to what has come to be known as ‘at risk people’, ‘vulnerable populations’ or ‘vulnerable people’. Vulnerable people have become a key focus of policy. Concurrently, there have been stronger demands on police, and a steep increase in police powers in relation to their interaction with vulnerable people. The premise of this protectionist and interventionist agenda is threefold: to protect the rights of vulnerable individuals proactively cater for their vulnerability within the justice system; and to secure police operations and protocols within strict guidelines. This collection unpacks ‘vulnerable people policing’ in theory and practice and guides the reader through the policing process as it is experienced by police officers, victims, offenders, witnesses and justice stakeholders. Each chapter features a single step of the policing process: from police recruit education through to custody, and the final transfer of vulnerable people to courts and sentencing. This edited collection provides analytical, theoretical and empirical insights on vulnerable people policing, and reflects on critical issues in a domain that is increasingly subject to speedy conversion from policy to practice, and heightened media and political scrutiny. It breaks down policing practices, operations and procedures that have vulnerable populations as a focus, bringing together original and innovative academic research and literature, practitioner experience and discussion of policy implications (from local and international perspectives). The particular nature of this collection highlights the multi-disciplinary nature of police work, sheds light on how specific, mandatory policies guide police officers steps in their interaction with vulnerable populations, and discusses the practicalities of police decision making at key points in this process.

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Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

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In response to developments in international trade and an increased focus on international transfer-pricing issues, Canada’s minister of finance announced in the 1997 budget that the Department of Finance would undertake a review of the transfer-pricing provisions in the Income Tax Act. On September 11, 1997, the Department of Finance released draft transfer-pricing legislation and Revenue Canada released revised draft Information Circular 87-2R. The legislation was subsequently amended and included in Bill C-28, which received first reading on December 10, 1997. The new rules are intended to update Canada’s international transfer-pricing practices. In particular, they attempt to harmonize the standards in the Income Tax Act with the arm’s-length principle established in the OECD’s transfer pricing guidelines. The new rules also set out contemporaneous documentation requirements in respect of cross-border related-party transactions, facilitate administration of the law by Revenue Canada, and provide for a penalty where transfer prices do not comply with the arm’s-length principle. The Australian tax authorities have similarly reviewed and updated their transfer-pricing practices. Since 1992, the Australian commissioner of taxation has issued three rulings and seven draft rulings directly relating to international transfer pricing. These rulings outline the selection and application of transfer pricing methodologies, documentation requirements, and penalties for non-compliance. The Australian Taxation Office supports the use of advance pricing agreements (APAs) and has expanded its audit strategy by conducting transfer-pricing risk assessment reviews. This article presents a detailed review of Australia’s transfer-pricing policy and practices, which address essentially the same concerns as those at which the new Canadian rules are directed. This review provides a framework for comparison of the approaches adopted in the two jurisdictions. The author concludes that although these approaches differ in some respects, ultimately they produce a similar result. Both regimes set a clear standard to be met by multinational enterprises in establishing transfer prices. Both provide for audits and penalties in the event of noncompliance. And both offer the alternative of an APA as a means of avoiding transfer-pricing disputes with Australian and Canadian tax authorities.

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Outdoor workers are exposed to high levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and may thus be at greater risk to experience UVR-related health effects such as skin cancer, sun burn, and cataracts. A number of intervention trials (n=14) have aimed to improve outdoor workers’ work-related sun protection cognitions and behaviours. Only one study however has reported the use of UV-photography as part of a multi-component intervention. This study was performed in the USA and showed long-term (12 months) improvements in work-related sun protection behaviours. Intervention effects of the other studies have varied greatly, depending on the population studied, intervention applied, and measurement of effect. Previous studies have not assessed whether: - Interventions are similarly effective for workers in stringent and less stringent policy organisations; - Policy effect is translated into workers’ leisure time protection; - Implemented interventions are effective in the long-term; - The facial UV-photograph technique is effective in Australian male outdoor workers without a large additional intervention package, and; - Such interventions will also affect workers’ leisure time sun-related cognitions and behaviours. Therefore, the present Protection of Outdoor Workers from Environmental Radiation [POWER]-study aimed to fill these gaps and had the objectives of: a) assessing outdoor workers’ sun-related cognitions and behaviours at work and during leisure time in stringent and less stringent sun protection policy environments; b) assessing the effect of an appearance-based intervention on workers’ risk perceptions, intentions and behaviours over time; c) assessing whether the intervention was equally effective within the two policy settings; and d) assessing the immediate post-intervention effect. Effectiveness was described in terms of changes in sun-related risk perceptions and intentions (as these factors were shown to be main precursors of behaviour change in many health promotion theories) and behaviour. The study purposefully selected and recruited two organisations with a large outdoor worker contingent in Queensland, Australia within a 40 kilometre radius of Brisbane. The two organisations differed in the stringency of implementation and reinforcement of their organisational sun protection policy. Data were collected from 154 male predominantly Australian born outdoor workers with an average age of 37 years and predominantly medium to fair skin (83%). Sun-related cognitions and behaviours of workers were assessed using self-report questionnaires at baseline and six to twelve months later. Variation in follow-up time was due to a time difference in the recruitment of the two organisations. Participants within each organisation were assigned to an intervention or control group. The intervention group participants received a one-off personalised Skin Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [SCRAT]-letter and a facial UV-photograph with detailed verbal information. This was followed by an immediate post-intervention questionnaire within three months of the start of the study. The control group only received the baseline and follow-up questionnaire. Data were analysed using a variety of techniques including: descriptive analyses, parametric and non-parametric tests, and generalised estimating equations. A 15% proportional difference observed was deemed of clinical significance, with the addition of reported statistical significance (p<0.05) where applicable. Objective 1: Assess and compare the current sun-related risk perceptions, intentions, behaviours, and policy awareness of outdoor workers in stringent and less stringent sun protection policy settings. Workers within the two organisations (stringent n=89 and less stringent n=65) were similar in their knowledge about skin cancer, self efficacy, attitudes, and social norms regarding sun protection at work and during leisure time. Participants were predominantly in favour of sun protection. Results highlighted that compared to workers in a less stringent policy organisation working for an organisation with stringent sun protection policies and practices resulted in more desirable sun protection intentions (less willing to tan p=0.03) ; actual behaviours at work (sufficient use of upper and lower body protection, headgear, and sunglasses (p<0.001 for all comparisons), and greater policy awareness (awareness of repercussions if Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) was not used, p<0.001)). However the effect of the work-related sun protection policy was found not to extend to leisure time sun protection. Objective 2: Compare changes in sun-related risk perceptions, intentions, and behaviours between the intervention and control group. The effect of the intervention was minimal and mainly resulted in a clinically significant reduction in work-related self-perceived risk of developing skin cancer in the intervention compared to the control group (16% and 32% for intervention and control group, respectively estimated their risk higher compared to other outdoor workers: , p=0.11). No other clinical significant effects were observed at 12 months follow-up. Objective 3: Assess whether the intervention was equally effective in the stringent sun protection policy organisation and the less stringent sun protection policy organisation. The appearance-based intervention resulted in a clinically significant improvement in the stringent policy intervention group participants’ intention to protect from the sun at work (workplace*time interaction, p=0.01). In addition to a reduction in their willingness to tan both at work (will tan at baseline: 17% and 61%, p=0.06, at follow-up: 54% and 33%, p=0.07, stringent and less stringent policy intervention group respectively. The workplace*time interaction was significant p<0.001) and during leisure time (will tan at baseline: 42% and 78%, p=0.01, at follow-up: 50% and 63%, p=0.43, stringent and less stringent policy intervention group respectively. The workplace*time interaction was significant p=0.01) over the course of the study compared to the less stringent policy intervention group. However, no changes in actual sun protection behaviours were found. Objective 4: Examine the effect of the intervention on level of alarm and concern regarding the health of the skin as well as sun protection behaviours in both organisations. The immediate post-intervention results showed that the stringent policy organisation participants indicated to be less alarmed (p=0.04) and concerned (p<0.01) about the health of their skin and less likely to show the facial UV-photograph to others (family p=0.03) compared to the less stringent policy participants. A clinically significantly larger proportion of participants from the stringent policy organisation reported they worried more about skin cancer (65%) and skin freckling (43%) compared to those in the less stringent policy organisation (46%,and 23% respectively , after seeing the UV-photograph). In summary the results of this study suggest that the having a stringent work-related sun protection policy was significantly related to for work-time sun protection practices, but did not extend to leisure time sun protection. This could reflect the insufficient level of sun protection found in the general Australian population during leisure time. Alternatively, reactance caused by being restricted in personal decisions through work-time policy could have contributed to lower leisure time sun protection. Finally, other factors could have also contributed to the less than optimal leisure time sun protection behaviours reported, such as unmeasured personal or cultural barriers. All these factors combined may have lead to reduced willingness to take proper preventive action during leisure time exposure. The intervention did not result in any measurable difference between the intervention and control groups in sun protection behaviours in this population, potentially due to the long lag time between the implementation of the intervention and assessment at 12-months follow-up. In addition, high levels of sun protection behaviours were found at baseline (ceiling effect) which left little room for improvement. Further, this study did not assess sunscreen use, which was the predominant behaviour assessed in previous effective appearance-based interventions trials. Additionally, previous trials were mainly conducted in female populations, whilst the POWER-study’s population was all male. The observed immediate post-intervention result could be due to more emphasis being placed on sun protection and risks related to sun exposure in the stringent policy organisation. Therefore participants from the stringent policy organisation could have been more aware of harmful effects of UVR and hence, by knowing that they usually protect adequately, not be as alarmed or concerned as the participants from the less stringent policy organisation. In conclusion, a facial UV-photograph and SCRAT-letter information alone may not achieve large changes in sun-related cognitions and behaviour, especially of assessed 6-12 months after the intervention was implemented and in workers who are already quite well protected. Differences found between workers in the present study appear to be more attributable to organisational policy. However, against a background of organisational policy, this intervention may be a useful addition to sun-related workplace health and safety programs. The study findings have been interpreted while respecting a number of limitations. These have included non-random allocation of participants due to pre-organised allocation of participants to study group in one organisation and difficulty in separating participants from either study group. Due to the transient nature of the outdoor worker population, only 105 of 154 workers available at baseline could be reached for follow-up. (attrition rate=32%). In addition the discrepancy in the time to follow-up assessment between the two organisations was a limitation of the current study. Given the caveats of this research, the following recommendations were made for future research: - Consensus should be reached to define "outdoor worker" in terms of time spent outside at work as well as in the way sun protection behaviours are measured and reported. - Future studies should implement and assess the value of the facial UV-photographs in a wide range of outdoor worker organisations and countries. - More timely and frequent follow-up assessments should be implemented in intervention studies to determine the intervention effect and to identify the best timing of booster sessions to optimise results. - Future research should continue to aim to target outdoor workers’ leisure time cognitions and behaviours and improve these if possible. Overall, policy appears to be an important factor in workers’ compliance with work-time use of sun protection. Given the evidence generated by this research, organisations employing outdoor workers should consider stringent implementation and reinforcement of a sun protection policy. Finally, more research is needed to improve ways to generate desirable behaviour in this population during leisure time.

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Over the course of your nursing professional education, you will study the developmental tasks and the principles of health promotion across the life span. You will learn to conduct numerous assessments, such as a complete health history, a psycho-social history, a mental health assessment, a nutritional assessment, a pain assessment, a suicide risk assessment and a physical examination of a patient. However, depending on your reactions to the person there may be wide variations in the information you gather in these assessments and in the findings of the physical examination. In the 1980s there was a change in western nurse education that recognised the interaction between culture and health and since then many nursing degrees include cultural considerations in their Bachelor Programs. It is now imperative that you, as a health care provider, come to understand how culture influences health care.

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A pilot study was conducted to compare four types of dressings used to treat skin tears in nursing home residents. Wounds treated with a non-occlusive dressing healed more quickly than those dressed with occlusive dressings. The results suggest that ease of use and product wastage are important considerations when treating skin tears. The pilot study also highlights the need for further research into skin tear management and the need for ongoing education for nurses regarding skin integrity risk assessment and product information.

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On average, 560 fatal run-off-road crashes occur annually in Australia and 135 in New Zealand. In addition, there are more than 14,000 run-off-road crashes causing injuries each year across both countries. In rural areas, run-off-road casualty crashes constitute 50-60% of all casualty crashes. Their severity is particularly high with more than half of those involved sustaining fatal or serious injuries. This paper reviews the existing approach to roadside hazard risk assessment, selection of clear zones and hazard treatments. It proposes a modified approach to roadside safety evaluation and management. It is a methodology based on statistical modelling of run-off-road casualty crashes, and application of locally developed crash modification factors and severity indices. Clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside design/treatment options are evaluated with a view to minimise fatal and serious injuries – the key Safe System objective. The paper concludes with a practical demonstration of the proposed approach. The paper is based on findings from a four-year Austroads research project into improving roadside safety in the Safe System context.

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Characterization of the combustion products released during the burning of commonly used engineering metallic materials may aid in material selection and risk assessment for the design of oxygen systems. The characterization of combustion products in regards to size distribution and morphology gives useful information for systems addressing fire detection. Aluminum rods (3.2-mm diameter cylinders) were vertically mounted inside a combustion chamber and ignited in pressurized oxygen by resistively heating an aluminum/palladium igniter wire attached to the bottom of the test sample. This paper describes the experimental work conducted to establish the particle size distribution and morphology of the resultant combustion products collected after the burning was completed and subsequently analyzed. In general, the combustion products consisted of a re-solidified oxidized slag and many small hollow spheres of size ranging from about 500 nm to 1000 µm in diameter, surfaced with quenched dendritic and grain-like structures. The combustion products were characterized using optical and scanning electron microscopy.

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Cooperative Systems provide, through the multiplication of information sources over the road, a lot of potential to improve the safety of road users, especially drivers. However, developing cooperative ITS applications requires additional resources compared to non-cooperative applications which are both time consuming and expensive. In this paper, we present a simulation architecture aimed at prototyping cooperative ITS applications in an accurate and detailed, close-to-reality environment; the architecture is designed to be modular and generalist. It can be used to simulate any type of CS applications as well as augmented perception. Then, we discuss the results of two applications deployed with our architecture, using a common freeway emergency braking scenario. The first application is Emergency Electronic Brake Light (EEBL); we discuss improvements in safety in terms of the number of crashes and the severity of crashes. The second application compares the performance of a cooperative risk assessment using an augmented map against a non-cooperative approach based on local-perception only. Our results show a systematic improvement of forward warning time for most vehicles in the string when using the augmented-map-based risk assessment.