Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes

Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the variety and uncertainty of climate models and underlying emission scenarios but also due to the different approaches applied to study its effects. We first describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multi-faceted approaches that are presently available for elucidating the effects of climate change in lakes, including space-for-time substitution, time series, experiments, palaeoecology and modelling. Reviewing combined results from studies based on the various approaches, we describe the likely effects of climate changes on biological communities, trophic dynamics and the ecological state of lakes. We further discuss potential mitigation and adaptation measures to counteract the effects of climate change on lakes and, finally, we highlight some of the future challenges that we face to improve our capacity for successful prediction.

A Gradient based algorithm for blind inversion of Wiener System using multi-variate score functions

A Wiener system is a linear time-invariant filter, followed by an invertible nonlinear distortion. Assuming that the input signal is an independent and identically distributed (iid) sequence, we propose an algorithm for estimating the input signal only by observing the output of the Wiener system. The algorithm is based on minimizing the mutual information of the output samples, by means of a steepest descent gradient approach.

Accuracy and Precision of Head Motion Information in Multi-Channel Free Induction Decay Navigators for Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Free induction decay (FID) navigators were found to qualitatively detect rigid-body head movements, yet it is unknown to what extent they can provide quantitative motion estimates. Here, we acquired FID navigators at different sampling rates and simultaneously measured head movements using a highly accurate optical motion tracking system. This strategy allowed us to estimate the accuracy and precision of FID navigators for quantification of rigid-body head movements. Five subjects were scanned with a 32-channel head coil array on a clinical 3T MR scanner during several resting and guided head movement periods. For each subject we trained a linear regression model based on FID navigator and optical motion tracking signals. FID-based motion model accuracy and precision was evaluated using cross-validation. FID-based prediction of rigid-body head motion was found to be with a mean translational and rotational error of 0.14±0.21 mm and 0.08±0.13(°) , respectively. Robust model training with sub-millimeter and sub-degree accuracy could be achieved using 100 data points with motion magnitudes of ±2 mm and ±1(°) for translation and rotation. The obtained linear models appeared to be subject-specific as inter-subject application of a "universal" FID-based motion model resulted in poor prediction accuracy. The results show that substantial rigid-body motion information is encoded in FID navigator signal time courses. Although, the applied method currently requires the simultaneous acquisition of FID signals and optical tracking data, the findings suggest that multi-channel FID navigators have a potential to complement existing tracking technologies for accurate rigid-body motion detection and correction in MRI.

Studying the non-thermal lobes of IRAS 16547-4247 through a multi-wavelength approach

In recent years, massive protostars have turned out to be a possible population of high-energy emitters. Among the best candidates is IRAS 16547-4247, a protostar that presents a powerful outflow with clear signatures of interaction with its environment. This source has been revealed to be a potential high-energy source because it displays non-thermal radio emission of synchrotron origin, which is evidence of relativistic particles. To improve our understanding of IRAS 16547-4247 as a high-energy source, we analyzed XMM-Newton archival data and found that IRAS 16547-4247 is a hard X-ray source. We discuss these results in the context of a refined one-zone model and previous radio observations. From our study we find that it may be difficult to explain the X-ray emission as non-thermal radiation coming from the interaction region, but it might be produced by thermal Bremsstrahlung (plus photo-electric absorption) by a fast shock at the jet end. In the high-energy range, the source might be detectable by the present generation of Cherenkov telescopes, and may eventually be detected by Fermi in the GeV range.

Deep GMRT radio observations and a multi-wavelength study of the region around HESS J1858+020

Context. There are a number of very high energy sources in the Galaxy that remain unidentified. Multi-wavelength and variability studies, and catalogue searches, are powerful tools to identify the physical counterpart, given the uncertainty in the source location and extension. Aims. This work carries out a thorough multi-wavelength study of the unidentified, very high energy source HESS J1858+020 and its environs. Methods. We have performed Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope observations at 610 MHz and 1.4 GHz to obtain a deep, low-frequency radio image of the region surrounding HESS J1858+020. We analysed archival radio, infrared, and X-ray data as well. This observational information, combined with molecular data, catalogue sources, and a nearby Fermi gamma-ray detection of unidentified origin, are combined to explore possible counterparts to the very high energy source. Results. We provide with a deep radio image of a supernova remnant that might be related to the GeV and TeV emission in the region. We confirm the presence of an H ii region next to the supernova remnant and coincident with molecular emission. A potential region of star formation is also identified. We identify several radio and X-ray sources in the surroundings. Some of these sources are known planetary nebulae, whereas others may be non-thermal extended emitters and embedded young stellar objects. Three old, background Galactic pulsars also neighbour HESS J1858+020 along the line of sight. Conclusions. The region surrounding HESS J1858+020 is rich in molecular structures and non-thermal objects that may potentially be linked to this unidentified very high energy source. In particular, a supernova remnant interacting with nearby molecular clouds may be a good candidate, but a star forming region, or a non-thermal radio source of yet unclear nature, may also be behind the gamma-ray source. The neighbouring pulsars, despite being old and distant, cannot be discarded as candidates. Further observational studies are needed, however, to narrow the search for a counterpart to the HESS source.

Railway Wagon Market Analysis and New Multi-Purpose Wagon Solution for Freight Transports - Finnish Manufacturing Perspective

Rautateillä käytettävät tavaravaunut ovat vanhenemassa hyvin nopeasti; tämä koskee niin Venäjää, Suomea, Ruotsia kuin laajemminkin Eurooppaa. Venäjällä ja Euroopassa on käytössä runsaasti vaunuja, jotka ovat jo ylittäneet niille suositeltavan käyttöiän. Silti niitä käytetään kuljetuksissa, kun näitä korvaavia uusia vaunuja ei ole tarpeeksi saatavilla. Uusimmat vaunut ovat yleensä vaunuja vuokraavien yritysten tai uusien rautatieoperaattorien hankkimia - tämä koskee erityisesti Venäjää, jossa vaunuvuokraus on noussut erittäin suosituksi vaihtoehdoksi. Ennusteissa kerrotaan vaunupulan kasvavan ainakin vuoteen 2010 saakka. Jos rautateiden suosio rahtikuljetusmuotona kasvaa, niin voimistuva vaunukysyntä jatkuu huomattavan paljon pidemmän aikaa. Euroopan ja Venäjän vaunukannan tilanne näkyy myös sitä palvelevan konepajateollisuuden ongelmina - yleisesti ottaen alan eurooppalaiset yritykset ovat heikosti kannattavia ja niiden liikevaihto ei juuri kasva, venäläiset ja ukrainalaiset yritykset ovat olleet samassa tilanteessa, joskin aivan viime vuosina tilanne on osassa kääntynyt paremmaksi. Kun näiden maanosien yritysten liikevaihtoa, voittoa ja omistaja-arvoa verrataan yhdysvaltalaisiin kilpailijoihin, huomataan että jälkimmäisten suoriutuminen on huomattavan paljon parempaa, ja näillä yrityksillä on myös kyky maksaa osinkoja omistajilleen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kehittää uuden tyyppinen kuljetusvaunu Suomen, Venäjän sekä mahdollisesti myös Kiinan väliseen liikenteeseen. Vaunutyypin tarkoituksena olisi kyetä toimimaan monikäyttöisenä, niin raaka-aineiden kuin konttienkin kuljetuksessa, tasapainottaen kuljetusmuotojen aiheuttamaa kuljetuspaino-ongelmaa. Kehitystyön pohjana käytimme yli 1000 venäläisen vaunutyypin tietokantaa, josta valitsimme Data Envelopment Analysis -menetelmällä soveliaimmat vaunut kontinkuljetukseen (lähemmin tarkastelimme n. 40 vaunutyyppiä), jättäen mahdollisimman vähän tyhjää tilaa junaan, mutta silti kyeten kantamaan valitun konttilastin. Kun kantokykyongelmia venäläisissä vaunuissa ei useinkaan ole, on vertailu tehtävissä tavarajunan pituuden ja kokonaispainon perusteella. Simuloituamme yhdistettyihin kuljetuksiin soveliasta vaunutyyppiä käytännössä löytyvässä kuljetusverkostossa (esim. raakapuuta Suomeen tai Kiinaan ja kontteja takaisin Venäjän suuntaan), huomasimme lyhemmän vaunupituuden sisältävän kustannusetua, erityisesti raakaainekuljetuksissa, mutta myös rajanylityspaikkojen mahdollisesti vähentyessä. Lyhempi vaunutyyppi on myös joustavampi erilaisten konttipituuksien suhteen (40 jalan kontin käyttö on yleistynyt viime vuosina). Työn lopuksi ehdotamme uuden vaunutyypin tuotantotavaksi verkostomaista lähestymistapaa, jossa osa vaunusta tehtäisiin Suomessa ja osa Venäjällä ja/tai Ukrainassa. Vaunutyypin tulisi olla rekisteröity Venäjälle, sillä silloin sitä voi käyttää Suomen ja Venäjän, kuten myös soveltuvin osin Venäjän ja Kiinan välisessä liikenteessä.

One-seller assignment markets with multi-unit demands

We consider one-seller assignment markets with multi-unit demands and prove that the associated game is buyers-submodular. Therefore the core is non-empty and it has a lattice structure which contains the allocation where every buyer receives his marginal contribution. We prove that in this kind of market, every pairwise-stable outcome is associated to a competitive equilibrium and viceversa. We study conditions under which the buyers-optimal and the seller-optimal core allocations are competitive equilibrium payoff vectors. Moreover, we characterize the markets for which the core coincidences with the set of competitive equilibria payoff vectors. When agents behave strategically, we introduce a procedure that implements the buyers-optimal core allocation as the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium outcome.

Statistical mechanics of multi-edge networks

Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There are, however, subtle yet important considerations to be made regarding the nature of the weights used in this generalization. Weights can be either continuous or discrete magnitudes, and in the latter case, they can additionally have undistinguishable or distinguishable nature. This fact has not been addressed in the literature insofar and has deep implications on the network statistics. In this work we face this problem introducing multiedge networks as graphs where multiple (distinguishable) connections between nodes are considered. We develop a statistical mechanics framework where it is possible to get information about the most relevant observables given a large spectrum of linear and nonlinear constraints including those depending both on the number of multiedges per link and their binary projection. The latter case is particularly interesting as we show that binary projections can be understood from multiedge processes. The implications of these results are important as many real-agent-based problems mapped onto graphs require this treatment for a proper characterization of their collective behavior.

Multi-institutional validation of the prognostic value of Ki-67 labeling index in patients treated with radical prostatectomy.

OBJECTIVE: Several smaller single-center studies have reported a prognostic role for Ki-67 labeling index in prostate cancer. Our aim was to test whether Ki-67 is an independent prognostic marker of biochemical recurrence (BCR) in a large international cohort of patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS: Ki-67 immunohistochemical staining on prostatectomy specimens from 3,123 patients who underwent RP for prostate cancer was retrospectively performed. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the association of Ki-67 status with BCR. RESULTS: Ki-67 positive status was observed in 762 (24.4 %) patients and was associated with lymph node involvement (LNI) (p = 0.039). Six hundred and twenty-one (19.9 %) patients experienced BCR. The estimated 3-year biochemical-free survivals were 85 % for patients with negative Ki-67 status and 82.1 % for patients with positive Ki-67 status (log-rank test, p = 0.014). In multivariable analysis that adjusted for the effects of age, preoperative PSA, RP Gleason sum, seminal vesicle invasion, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, lymphovascular invasion, and LNI, Ki-67 was significantly associated with BCR (HR = 1.19; p = 0.019). Subgroup analysis revealed that Ki-67 is associated with BCR in patients without LNI (p = 0.004), those with RP Gleason sum 7 (p = 0.015), and those with negative surgical margins (p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: We confirmed Ki-67 as an independent predictor of BCR after RP. Ki-67 could be particularly informative in patients with favorable pathologic characteristics to help in the clinical decision-making regarding adjuvant therapy and optimized follow-up scheduling.

2015 Update on Acute Adverse Reactions to Gadolinium based Contrast Agents in Cardiovascular MR. Large Multi-National and Multi-Ethnical Population Experience With 37788 Patients From the EuroCMR Registry.

OBJECTIVES: Specifically we aim to demonstrate that the results of our earlier safety data hold true in this much larger multi-national and multi-ethnical population. BACKGROUND: We sought to re-evaluate the frequency, manifestations, and severity of acute adverse reactions associated with administration of several gadolinium- based contrast agents during routine CMR on a European level. METHODS: Multi-centre, multi-national, and multi-ethnical registry with consecutive enrolment of patients in 57 European centres. RESULTS: During the current observation 37,788 doses of Gadolinium based contrast agent were administered to 37,788 patients. The mean dose was 24.7 ml (range 5-80 ml), which is equivalent to 0.123 mmol/kg (range 0.01 - 0.3 mmol/kg). Forty-five acute adverse reactions due to contrast administration occurred (0.12%). Most reactions were classified as mild (43 of 45) according to the American College of Radiology definition. The most frequent complaints following contrast administration were rashes and hives (15 of 45), followed by nausea (10 of 45) and flushes (10 of 45). The event rate ranged from 0.05% (linear non-ionic agent gadodiamide) to 0.42% (linear ionic agent gadobenate dimeglumine). Interestingly, we also found different event rates between the three main indications for CMR ranging from 0.05% (risk stratification in suspected CAD) to 0.22% (viability in known CAD). CONCLUSIONS: The current data indicate that the results of the earlier safety data hold true in this much larger multi-national and multi-ethnical population. Thus, the "off-label" use of Gadolinium based contrast in cardiovascular MR should be regarded as safe concerning the frequency, manifestation and severity of acute events.

CT attenuation values of blood and myocardium: rationale for accurate coronary artery calcifications detection with multi-detector CT.

OBJECTIVES: To determine inter-session and intra/inter-individual variations of the attenuations of aortic blood/myocardium with MDCT in the context of calcium scoring. To evaluate whether these variations are dependent on patients' characteristics. METHODS: Fifty-four volunteers were evaluated with calcium scoring non-enhanced CT. We measured attenuations (inter-individual variation) and standard deviations (SD, intra-individual variation) of the blood in the ascending aorta and of the myocardium of left ventricle. Every volunteer was examined twice to study the inter-session variation. The fat pad thickness at the sternum and noise (SD of air) were measured too. These values were correlated with the measured aortic/ventricular attenuations and their SDs (Pearson). Historically fixed thresholds (90 and 130 HU) were tested against different models based on attenuations of blood/ventricle. RESULTS: The mean attenuation was 46 HU (range, 17-84 HU) with mean SD 23 HU for the blood, and 39 HU (10-82 HU) with mean SD 18 HU for the myocardium. The attenuation/SD of the blood were significantly higher than those of the myocardium (p < 0.01). The inter-session variation was not significant. There was a poor correlation between SD of aortic blood/ventricle with fat thickness/noise. Based on existing models, 90 HU threshold offers a confidence interval of approximately 95% and 130 HU more than 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Historical thresholds offer high confidence intervals for exclusion of aortic blood/myocardium and by the way for detecting calcifications. Nevertheless, considering the large variations of blood/myocardium CT values and the influence of patient's characteristics, a better approach might be an adaptive threshold.