Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale - Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to - 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Validation of a FFQ for estimating whole-grain cereal food intake

Estimation of whole-grain (WG) food intake in epidemiological and nutritional studies is normally based on general diet FFQ, which are not designed to specifically capture WG intake. To estimate WG cereal intake, we developed a forty-three-item FFQ focused on cereal product intake over the past month. We validated this questionnaire against a 3-d-weighed food record (3DWFR) in thirty-one subjects living in the French-speaking part of Switzerland (nineteen female and twelve male). Subjects completed the FFQ on day 1 (FFQ1), the 3DWFR between days 2 and 13 and the FFQ again on day 14 (FFQ2). The subjects provided a fasting blood sample within 1 week of FFQ2. Total cereal intake, total WG intake, intake of individual cereals, intake of different groups of cereal products and alkylresorcinol (AR) intake were calculated from both FFQ and the 3DWFR. Plasma AR, possible biomarkers for WG wheat and rye intake were also analysed. The total WG intake for the 3DWFR, FFQ1, FFQ2 was 26 (sd 22), 28 (sd 25) and 21 (sd 16) g/d, respectively. Mean plasma AR concentration was 55.8 (sd 26.8) nmol/l. FFQ1, FFQ2 and plasma AR were correlated with the 3DWFR (r 0.72, 0.81 and 0.57, respectively). Adjustment for age, sex, BMI and total energy intake did not affect the results. This FFQ appears to give a rapid and adequate estimate of WG cereal intake in free-living subjects.

Detection of pressed hazelnut oil in virgin olive oil by analysis of polar components: improvement and validation of the method

An improved method for the detection of pressed hazelnut oil in admixtures with virgin olive oil by analysis of polar components is described. The method. which is based on the SPE-based isolation of the polar fraction followed by RP-HPLC analysis with UV detection. is able to detect virgin olive oil adulterated with pressed hazelnut oil at levels as low as 5% with accuracy (90.0 +/- 4.2% recovery of internal standard), good reproducibility (4.7% RSD) and linearity (R-2: 0.9982 over the 5-40% adulteration range). An international ring-test of the developed method highlighted its capability as 80% of the samples were, on average, correctly identified despite the fact that no training samples were provided to the participating laboratories. However, the large variability in marker components among the pressed hazelnut oils examined prevents the use of the method for quantification of the level of adulteration. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling and validation of Lactobacillus plantarum fermentations in cereal-based media with different sugar concentrations and buffering capacities

An unstructured mathematical model is proposed to describe the fermentation kinetics of growth, lactic acid production, pH and sugar consumption by Lactobacillus plantarum as a function of the buffering capacity and initial glucose concentration of the culture media. Initially the experimental data of L plantarum fermentations in synthetic media with different buffering capacity and glucose were fitted to a set of primary models. Later the parameters obtained from these models were used to establish mathematical relationships with the independent variables tested. The models were validated with 6 fermentations of L. plantarum in different cereal-based media. In most cases the proposed models adequately describe the biochemical changes taking place during fermentation and are a promising approach for the formulation of cereal-based probiotic foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the social communication questionnaire in a population cohort of children with autism spectrum disorders

Objective: To examine the properties of the Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ) in a population cohort of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) and in the general population, Method: SCQ data were collected from three samples: the Special Needs and Autism Project (SNAP) cohort of 9- to 10-year-old children with special educational needs with and without ASD and two similar but separate age groups of children from the general population (n = 411 and n = 247). Diagnostic assessments were completed on a stratified subsample (n = 255) of the special educational needs group. A sample-weighting procedure enabled us to estimate characteristics of the SCQ in the total ASD population. Diagnostic status of cases in the general population samples were extracted from child health records. Results: The SCQ showed strong discrimination between ASD and non-ASD cases (sensitivity 0.88, specificity 0.72) and between autism and nonautism cases (sensitivity 0.90, specificity 0.86). Findings were not affected by child IQ or parental education. In the general population samples between 4% and 5% of children scored above the ASD cutoff including 1.5% who scored above the autism cutoff. Although many of these high-scoring children had an ASD diagnosis, almost all (similar to 90%) of them had a diagnosed neurodevelopmental disorder. Conclusions: This study confirms the utility of the SCQ as a,first-level screen for ASD in at-risk samples of school-age children.

Cross validation and segment support for stereo belief propagation

Typically, algorithms for generating stereo disparity maps have been developed to minimise the energy equation of a single image. This paper proposes a method for implementing cross validation in a belief propagation optimisation. When tested using the Middlebury online stereo evaluation, the cross validation improves upon the results of standard belief propagation. Furthermore, it has been shown that regions of homogeneous colour within the images can be used for enforcing the so-called "Segment Constraint". Developing from this, Segment Support is introduced to boost belief between pixels of the same image region and improve propagation into textureless regions.

Validation of short tandem repeat analysis for the investigation of cases of disputed paternity

This study details validation of two separate multiplex STR systems for use in paternity investigations. These are the Second Generation Multiplex (SGM) developed by the UK Forensic Science Service and the PowerPlex 1 multiplex commercially available from Promega Inc. (Madison, WI, USA). These multiplexes contain 12 different STR systems (two are duplicated in the two systems). Population databases from Caucasian, Asian and Afro-Caribbean populations have been compiled for all loci. In all but two of the 36 STR/ethnic group combinations, no evidence was obtained to indicate inconsistency with Hardy-Weinberg (HW) proportions. Empirical and theoretical approaches have been taken to validate these systems for paternity testing. Samples from 121 cases of disputed paternity were analysed using established Single Locus Probe (SLP) tests currently in use, and also using the two multiplex STR systems. Results of all three test systems were compared and no non-conformities in the conclusions were observed, although four examples of apparent germ line mutations in the STR systems were identified. The data was analysed to give information on expected paternity indices and exclusion rates for these STR systems. The 12 systems combined comprise a highly discriminating test suitable for paternity testing. 99.96% of non-fathers are excluded from paternity on two or more STR systems. Where no exclusion is found, Paternity Index (PI) values of > 10,000 are expected in > 96% of cases.

Análise de dados coletados por respondent-driven sampling(RDS): um estudo da prevalência de HIV e fatores associados entre mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo em 10 cidades brasileiras

O grupo das mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo (MTS) é reconhecido como uma populaçãode maior risco à infecção pelo HIV, tanto pela prevalência elevada, como por suavulnerabilidade social como pelos fatores relacionados à própria atividade profissional. Porém, arealização de estudos nos subgrupos de maior risco ao HIV mediante estratégias convencionaisde amostragem é, em geral, problemática por essas populações possuírem pequena magnitudeem termos populacionais e por estarem vinculados a comportamentos estigmatizados ouatividades ilegais. Em 1997, foi proposto um método de amostragem probabilística parapopulações de difícil acesso denominado Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS). O método éconsiderado como uma variante da amostragem em cadeia e possibilita a estimação estatísticados parâmetros de interesse. Na literatura internacional, para análise de dados coletados porRDS, muitos autores têm utilizado técnicas estatísticas multivariadas tradicionais, sem levar emconta a estrutura de dependência das observações, presente nos dados coletados por RDS.A presente tese tem por objetivo contribuir para suprir informações sobre as práticas derisco relacionadas ao HIV entre as mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo (MTS) com odesenvolvimento de método estatístico para análise de dados coletados com o método deamostragem RDS. Com tal finalidade, foram utilizadas as informações coletadas na PesquisaCorrente da Saúde realizada em dez cidades brasileiras, com 2.523 MTS recrutadas por RDS,entre os anos de 2008 e 2009. O questionário foi autopreenchido e incluiu módulos sobrecaracterísticas da atividade profissional, práticas sexuais, uso de drogas, testes periódicos deHIV, e acesso aos serviços de saúde.Primeiramente, foram descritos alguns pressupostos do RDS e todas as etapas deimplantação da pesquisa. Em seguida, foram propostos métodos de análise multivariada, considerando o RDS como um desenho complexo de amostragem.