Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.

Fail-Safe Testing of Web Applications

This dissertation introduces an approach to generate tests to test fail-safe behavior for web applications. We apply the approach to a commercial web application. We build models for both behavioral and mitigation requirements. We create mitigation tests from an existing functional black box test suite by determining failure type and points of failure in the test suite and weaving required mitigation based on weaving rules to generate a test suite that tests proper mitigation of failures. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine points of failure and type of failure that needs to be tested. Mitigation test paths are woven into the behavioral test at the point of failure based on failure specific weaving rules. A simulator was developed to evaluate choice of parameters for the genetic algorithm. We showed how to tune the fitness function and performed tuning experiments for GA to determine what values to use for exploration weight and prospecting weight. We found that higher defect densities make prospecting and mining more successful, while lower mitigation defect densities need more exploration. We compare efficiency and effectiveness of the approach. First, the GA approach is compared to random selection. The results show that the GA performance was better than random selection and that the approach was robust when the search space increased. Second, we compare the GA against four coverage criteria. The results of comparison show that test requirements generated by a genetic algorithm (GA) are more efficient than three of the four coverage criteria for large search spaces. They are equally effective. For small search spaces, the genetic algorithm is less effective than three of the four coverage criteria. The fourth coverage criteria is too weak and unable to find all defects in almost all cases. We also present a large case study of a mortgage system at one of our industrial partners and show how we formalize the approach. We evaluate the use of a GA to create test requirements. The evaluation includes choice of initial population, multiplicity of runs and a discussion of the cost of evaluating fitness. Finally, we build a selective regression testing approach based on types of changes (add, delete, or modify) that could occur in the behavioral model, the fault model, the mitigation models, the weaving rules, and the state-event matrix. We provide a systematic method by showing the formalization steps for each type of change to the various models.

Testing reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism

Based on Tversky and Kahneman’s Prospect Theory, we test the existence of reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism. To do this, we incorporate the reference-dependent model into a Multinomial Logit Model with Random Parameters -which controls for heterogeneity- and apply it to a sample of vacation choices made by Spaniards. We find that the difference between reference price and actual price is considered to make decisions, confirming that reference dependence exists; that people react more strongly to price increases than to price decreases relative to their reference price, which represents evidence in favor of the loss aversion phenomenon; and that there is diminishing sensitivity for losses only, showing convexity for these negative values.

The effect of carbon nanofillers on the performance of electromechanical polyaniline-based composite actuators

Different types of crystalline carbon nanomaterials were used to reinforce polyaniline for use in electromechanical bilayer bending actuators. The objective is to analyze how the different graphitic structures of the nanocarbons affect and improve the in situ polymerized polyaniline composites and their subsequent actuator behavior. The nanocarbons investigated were multiwalled carbon nanotubes, nitrogen-doped carbon nanotubes, helical-ribbon carbon nanofibers and graphene oxide, each one presenting different shape and structural characteristics. Films of nanocarbon-PAni composite were tested in a liquid electrolyte cell system. Experimental design was used to select the type of nanocarbon filler and composite loadings, and yielded a good balance of electromechanical properties. Raman spectroscopy suggests good interaction between PAni and the nanocarbon fillers. Electron microscopy showed that graphene oxide dispersed the best, followed by multiwall carbon nanotubes, while nitrogen-doped nanotube composites showed dispersion problems and thus poor performance. Multiwall carbon nanotube composite actuators showed the best performance based on the combination of bending angle, bending velocity and maximum working cycles, while graphene oxide attained similarly good performance due to its best dispersion. This parallel testing of a broad set of nanocarbon fillers on PAni-composite actuators is unprecedented to the best of our knowledge and shows that the type and properties of the carbon nanomaterial are critical to the performance of electromechanical devices with other conditions remaining equal.

Latent tuberculosis infection : a diagnostic challenge : Tuberculin skin testing versus interferon-γ release assays

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Farm/Household-Level Simulation: Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios. Factor Markets Working Document No. 54, June 2013

Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land.

Coreferentiality: A New Method for the Hypothesis-Based Analysis of Phenotypes Characterized by Multivariate Data

Many multifactorial biologic effects, particularly in the context of complex human diseases, are still poorly understood. At the same time, the systematic acquisition of multivariate data has become increasingly easy. The use of such data to analyze and model complex phenotypes, however, remains a challenge. Here, a new analytic approach is described, termed coreferentiality, together with an appropriate statistical test. Coreferentiality is the indirect relation of two variables of functional interest in respect to whether they parallel each other in their respective relatedness to multivariate reference data, which can be informative for a complex effect or phenotype. It is shown that the power of coreferentiality testing is comparable to multiple regression analysis, sufficient even when reference data are informative only to a relatively small extent of 2.5%, and clearly exceeding the power of simple bivariate correlation testing. Thus, coreferentiality testing uses the increased power of multivariate analysis, however, in order to address a more straightforward interpretable bivariate relatedness. Systematic application of this approach could substantially improve the analysis and modeling of complex phenotypes, particularly in the context of human study where addressing functional hypotheses by direct experimentation is often difficult.

Integrated architecture for vision-based indoor localization and mapping of a quadrotor micro-air vehicle

Atualmente os sistemas de pilotagem autónoma de quadricópteros estão a ser desenvolvidos de forma a efetuarem navegação em espaços exteriores, onde o sinal de GPS pode ser utilizado para definir waypoints de navegação, modos de position e altitude hold, returning home, entre outros. Contudo, o problema de navegação autónoma em espaços fechados sem que se utilize um sistema de posicionamento global dentro de uma sala, subsiste como um problema desafiante e sem solução fechada. Grande parte das soluções são baseadas em sensores dispendiosos, como o LIDAR ou como sistemas de posicionamento externos (p.ex. Vicon, Optitrack). Algumas destas soluções reservam a capacidade de processamento de dados dos sensores e dos algoritmos mais exigentes para sistemas de computação exteriores ao veículo, o que também retira a componente de autonomia total que se pretende num veículo com estas características. O objetivo desta tese pretende, assim, a preparação de um sistema aéreo não-tripulado de pequeno porte, nomeadamente um quadricóptero, que integre diferentes módulos que lhe permitam simultânea localização e mapeamento em espaços interiores onde o sinal GPS ´e negado, utilizando, para tal, uma câmara RGB-D, em conjunto com outros sensores internos e externos do quadricóptero, integrados num sistema que processa o posicionamento baseado em visão e com o qual se pretende que efectue, num futuro próximo, planeamento de movimento para navegação. O resultado deste trabalho foi uma arquitetura integrada para análise de módulos de localização, mapeamento e navegação, baseada em hardware aberto e barato e frameworks state-of-the-art disponíveis em código aberto. Foi também possível testar parcialmente alguns módulos de localização, sob certas condições de ensaio e certos parâmetros dos algoritmos. A capacidade de mapeamento da framework também foi testada e aprovada. A framework obtida encontra-se pronta para navegação, necessitando apenas de alguns ajustes e testes.

Recommendations for Genetic Testing to Reduce the Incidence of Anthracycline-induced Cardiotoxicity

AIM Anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity (ACT) occurs in 57% of treated patients and remains an important limitation of anthracycline-based chemotherapy. In various genetic association studies, potential genetic risk markers for ACT have been identified. Therefore, we developed evidence-based clinical practice recommendations for pharmacogenomic testing to further individualize therapy based on ACT risk. METHODS We followed a standard guideline development process; including a systematic literature search, evidence synthesis and critical appraisal, and the development of clinical practice recommendations with an international expert group. RESULTS RARG rs2229774, SLC28A3 rs7853758 and UGT1A6 rs17863783 variants currently have the strongest and the most consistent evidence for association with ACT. Genetic variants in ABCC1, ABCC2, ABCC5, ABCB1, ABCB4, CBR3, RAC2, NCF4, CYBA, GSTP1, CAT, SULT2B1, POR, HAS3, SLC22A7, SCL22A17, HFE and NOS3 have also been associated with ACT, but require additional validation. We recommend pharmacogenomic testing for the RARG rs2229774 (S427L), SLC28A3 rs7853758 (L461L) and UGT1A6*4 rs17863783 (V209V) variants in childhood cancer patients with an indication for doxorubicin or daunorubicin therapy (Level B - moderate). Based on an overall risk stratification, taking into account genetic and clinical risk factors, we recommend a number of management options including increased frequency of echocardiogram monitoring, follow-up, as well as therapeutic options within the current standard of clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS Existing evidence demonstrates that genetic factors have the potential to improve the discrimination between individuals at higher and lower risk of ACT. Genetic testing may therefore support both patient care decisions and evidence development for an improved prevention of ACT.

Relational Memory Is Evident in Eye Movement Behavior despite the Use of Subliminal Testing Methods

While it is generally agreed that perception can occur without awareness, there continues to be debate about the type of representational content that is accessible when awareness is minimized or eliminated. Most investigations that have addressed this issue evaluate access to well-learned representations. Far fewer studies have evaluated whether or not associations encountered just once prior to testing might also be accessed and influence behavior. Here, eye movements were used to examine whether or not memory for studied relationships is evident following the presentation of subliminal cues. Participants (assigned to experimental or control groups) studied scene-face pairs and test trials evaluated implicit and explicit memory for these pairs. Each test trial began with a subliminal scene cue, followed by three visible studied faces. For experimental group participants, one face was the studied associate of the scene (implicit test); for controls none were a match. Subsequently, the Display containing a match was presented to both groups, but now it was preceded by a visible scene cue (explicit test). Eye movements were recorded and recognition Memory responses were made. Participants in the experimental group looked disproportionately at matching faces on implicit test trials and participants from both groups looked disproportionately at matching faces on explicit test trials, even when that face had not been successfully identified as the associate. Critically, implicit memory-based viewing effects seemed not to depend on residual awareness of subliminal scenes cues, as subjective and objective measures indicated that scenes were successfully masked from view. The reported outcomes indicate that memory for studied relationships can be expressed in eye movement behavior without awareness.

Heterogeneity in testing practices for infections during pregnancy: national survey across Switzerland.

QUESTION Detection and treatment of infections during pregnancy are important for both maternal and child health. The objective of this study was to describe testing practices and adherence to current national guidelines in Switzerland. METHODS We invited all registered practicing obstetricians and gynaecologists in Switzerland to complete an anonymous web-based questionnaire about strategies for testing for 14 infections during pregnancy. We conducted a descriptive analysis according to demographic characteristics. RESULTS Of 1138 invited clinicians, 537 (47.2%) responded and 520 (45.6%) were eligible as they are currently caring for pregnant women. Nearly all eligible respondents tested all pregnant women for group B streptococcus (98.0%), hepatitis B virus (HBV) (96.5%) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (94.7%), in accordance with national guidelines. Although testing for toxoplasmosis is not recommended, 24.1% of respondents tested all women and 32.9% tested at the request of the patient. Hospital doctors were more likely not to test for toxoplasmosis than doctors working in private practice (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-6.13, p = 0.04). Only 80.4% of respondents tested all women for syphilis. There were regional differences in testing for some infections. The proportion of clinicians testing all women for HIV, HBV and syphilis was lower in Eastern Switzerland and the Zurich region (69.4% and 61.2%, respectively) than in other regions (range 77.1-88.1%, p <0.001). Most respondents (74.5%) said they would appreciate national guidelines about testing for infections during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS Testing practices for infections in pregnant women vary widely in Switzerland. More extensive national guidelines could improve consistency of testing practices.

TDP : a two-dimensional perturbation calculation code based on TDC, for IBM-7090, Deck B 516 /

Work performed at CANEL.

Investigations in Soviet hypervelocity testing technique; comprehensive report

"Based on Soviet-satellite open sources published 1924-1965."

A. S. T. M. viscosity index tables, based on and amplified from A. S. T. M. tentative method for calculating viscosity index (D 567-40 T)

"Acknowledgment is hereby given to E.W. Dean and G. H. B. Davis for the development of the viscosity index scale (Journal of Industrial and engineering chemistry, vol. 32, p. 102 (1940)) and to the Standard oil development co., for the compilation of these tables."

... DNA testing accountability report /

"... in accordance with Public Act 093-0785."