Построение Логико-Вероятностных Моделей Временных Рядов с Использованием Цепей Маркова

The method of logic and probabilistic models constructing for multivariate heterogeneous time series is offered. There are some important properties of these models, e.g. universality. In this paper also discussed the logic and probabilistic models distinctive features in comparison with hidden Markov processes. The early proposed time series forecasting algorithm is tested on applied task.

Methods of Regularities Searching Based on Optimal Partitioning

The purpose of discussed optimal valid partitioning (OVP) methods is uncovering of ordinal or continuous explanatory variables effect on outcome variables of different types. The OVP approach is based on searching partitions of explanatory variables space that in the best way separate observations with different levels of outcomes. Partitions of single variables ranges or two-dimensional admissible areas for pairs of variables are searched inside corresponding families. Statistical validity associated with revealed regularities is estimated with the help of permutation test repeating search of optimal partition for each permuted dataset. Method for output regularities selection is discussed that is based on validity evaluating with the help of two types of permutation tests.

Teaching University-Level Mathematics Using Mathematica

This paper considers the use of the computer algebra system Mathematica for teaching university-level mathematics subjects. Outlined are basic Mathematica concepts, connected with different mathematics areas: algebra, linear algebra, geometry, calculus and analysis, complex functions, numerical analysis and scientific computing, probability and statistics. The course “Information technologies in mathematics”, which involves the use of Mathematica, is also presented - discussed are the syllabus, aims, approaches and outcomes.

Some Contributions to the Class of Two-Sex Branching Processes Depending on the Number of Couples in the Population

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80

Environmentally conscious consumption patterns in Hungarian households

This article provides a comprehensive review of the literature on the theoretical aspects of sustainable consumption. The conditions for consumers’ social responsibility and the formation of environmentally conscious behavior patterns will also be discussed, along with possible methods for motivating behavioral changes. The authors have completed a primary research study with the purpose of surveying environmentally conscious consumption patterns in Hungary. They also examined how the provision of appropriate information and the raising of awareness might encourage sustainable consumption. According to their findings, the respondents’ knowledge on environmentally conscious behavior was rather limited, and reinforcement was needed in identifying appropriate activity alternatives. This paper provides a summary of the qualitative research phase which employed in-depth interviews, logging and focus groups. The consecutive application of these methods enabled the authors to keep track of the process and the consequences of raising awareness.

Coherent rho meson electroproduction off deuteron

QCD predicts Color Transparency (CT), which refers to nuclear medium becoming transparent to a small color neutral object produced in high momentum transfer reactions, due to reduced strong interaction. Despite several studies at BNL, SLAC, FNAL, DESY and Jefferson Lab, a definitive signal for CT still remains elusive. In this dissertation, we present the results of a new study at Jefferson Lab motivated by theoretical calculations that suggest fully exclusive measurement of coherent rho meson electroproduction off the deuteron is a favorable channel for studying CT. Vector meson production has a large cross section at high energies, and the deuteron is the best understood and simplest nuclear system. Exclusivity allows the production and propagation to be controlled separately by controlling Q 2, lf (formation length), lc (coherence length) and t. This control is important as the rapid expansion of small objects increases their interaction probability and masks CT. The CT signal is investigated in a ratio of cross sections at high t (where re-scattering is significant) to low t (where single nucleon reactions dominate). The results are presented over a Q2 range of 1 to 3 GeV2 based on the data taken with beam energy of 6 GeV.

Ageism in the workplace: Examining the influence of age conceptualization on the advancement opportunities of older workers

This study examined variables that may influence managers' perceptions of the need for and benefits of training and promoting older workers. Age conceptualization, worker gender, tender-mindedness, openness to values, and emotional intelligence were predicted to affect the relationship between worker age and the probability and perceived benefits of training and promoting older workers. Approximately 500 working professionals read one of four training and promotion vignettes and provided training probability ratings, training benefits ratings, promotion probability ratings, and promotion benefits ratings in order to test twenty-four hypotheses. Results provided evidence that both worker age and the way in which age was conceptualized affected the extent to which workers were recommended for training as well as the perceived benefits of training workers. It was also found that worker age and the way in which age was conceptualized affected the extent to which workers were recommended for promotions and the perceived benefits of doing so. Of the individual characteristics studied, openness to values was found to act as a moderator of the relationship between age conceptualization and the extent to which older workers were recommended for a promotion and the relationship between age conceptualization and the perceived benefits of promoting older workers. Findings from this study suggest that organizations that wish to protect older workers from discrimination should make decision-makers aware of the influence of age conceptualizations on the salience of older worker stereotypes. By being cognizant of individual raters' levels of the personality characteristics examined in this study, organizations can create decision-making teams that are not only representative in terms of demographic characteristics (i.e. race, gender, age, etc.) but also diverse in terms of personality composition. Additionally, organizations that wish to decrease discrimination against older workers should take care to create guidelines and procedures for training and promotion decisions that systematically reduce the opportunities for older worker stereotypes to influence outcomes. ^

A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

Small sample confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution

This thesis proposes some confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution. The following confidence intervals are considered: Student-t, Johnson-t, median-t, mad-t, bootstrap-t, BCA, T1 , T3 and six new confidence intervals, the median bootstrap-t, mad bootstrap-t, median T1, mad T1 , median T3 and the mad T3. A simulation study has been conducted and average widths, coefficient of variation of widths, and coverage probabilities were recorded and compared across confidence intervals. To compare confidence intervals, the width and coverage probabilities were compared so that smaller widths indicated a better confidence interval when coverage probabilities were the same. Results showed that the median T1 and median T3 outperformed other confidence intervals in terms of coverage probability and the mad bootstrap-t, mad-t, and mad T3 outperformed others in terms of width. Some real life data are considered to illustrate the findings of the thesis.

HIV/AIDS: um perfil epidemiológico do vírus e uma análise das práticas seguras, conhecimento e percepção de mulheres

In recent decades, the debate surrounding the consequences of the HIV has passed by great changes. Earlier, prevention campaigns focused risk groups then risk behaviors and ultimately vulnerability. Furthermore, over the years, the dimensions of HIV that emerged in the social environment are these: internalization, heterosexualization, impoverishment and feminization. Based on these contexts, the composition of this study comprises two papers: the former has the overall objective to analyze the epidemiology and incidence of HIV in Brazilian regions in the period from 1980 to 2012; the latter, it aims to find out whether there is the relationship among safe practices, knowledge and perception of women residents in Manaus and Boa Vista cities on the infection by HIV. In paper 1, it was used information from the Health Ministry, as a data source. Besides, it was developed an exploratory and spatial analysis of incidence rates and relative proportion of notified cases. In paper 2, was used as a source of data, the research "Evaluating the process of spatial and epidemic diffusion of HIV in the federal units of Brazil-Northern Region" in 2008. Furthermore, Statistical Techniques of Cluster Analysis, Analysis of Variance, Chi-Square and Logistic Regression were applied. In this paper, it was found that, in Brazilian Regions, the prevalence of reported cases occurred among heterosexuals in men 20-40 year age group and residing in metropolitan areas. It was observed a significant spatial correlation of the incidence rate of reported cases of HIV. It was also noted by the results that have good knowledge and awareness about HIV does not imply, essentially, in a safe sexual intercourse. These results have shown the need public policies geared to the guiding of society, based in educational strategies aiming both information about the virus and its prevention, as well as public awareness for safe sex practices or in stable or not intercourses

O jogo dos discos: o uso da experimentação como suporte para o ensino da probabilidade

In this paper we propose a class for introducing the probability teaching using the game discs which is based on the concept of geometric probability and which is supposed to determine the probability of a disc randomly thrown does not intercept the lines of a gridded surface. The problem was posed to a group of 3nd year of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - Jo~ao C^amara. Therefore, the students were supposed to build a grid board in which the success percentage of the players had been previously de ned for them. Once the grid board was built, the students should check whether that theoretically predetermined percentage corresponded to reality obtained through experimentation. The results and attitude of the students in further classes suggested greater involvement of them with discipline, making the environment conducive for learning.

O jogo dos discos: o uso da experimentação como suporte para o ensino da probabilidade

In this paper we propose a class for introducing the probability teaching using the game discs which is based on the concept of geometric probability and which is supposed to determine the probability of a disc randomly thrown does not intercept the lines of a gridded surface. The problem was posed to a group of 3nd year of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - Jo~ao C^amara. Therefore, the students were supposed to build a grid board in which the success percentage of the players had been previously de ned for them. Once the grid board was built, the students should check whether that theoretically predetermined percentage corresponded to reality obtained through experimentation. The results and attitude of the students in further classes suggested greater involvement of them with discipline, making the environment conducive for learning.

Pollen from 50 lake surface samples in Brandenburg, Germany, in 2009

Past changes in plant and landscape diversity can be evaluated through pollen analysis, however, pollen based diversity indexes are potentially biased by differential pollen production and deposition. Studies examining the relationship between pollen and landscape diversity are therefore needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate how different pollen based indexes capture aspects of landscape diversity. Pollen counts were obtained from surface samples of 50 small to medium sized lakes in Brandenburg (Northeast Germany) and compiled into two sets, with one containing all pollen counts from terrestrial plants and the second restricted to wind-pollinated taxa. Both sets were adjusted for the pollen production/dispersal bias using the REVEALS model. A high resolution biotope map was used to extract the density of total biotopes and different biotopes per area as parameters describing landscape diversity. In addition tree species diversity was obtained from forest inventory data. The Shannon index and the number of taxa in a sample of 10 pollen grains are highly correlated and provide a useful measure of pollen type diversity which corresponds best to landscape diversity within one km of the lake and the proportion of non-forested area within seven km. Adjustments of the pollen production/dispersal bias only slightly improve the relationships between pollen diversity and landscape diversity for the restricted dataset as well as for the forest inventory data and corresponding pollen types. Using rarefaction analysis, we propose the following convention: pollen type diversity is represented by the number of types in a small sample (low count e.g. 10), pollen type richness is the number of types in a large sample (high count e.g. 500) and pollen sample evenness is characterized by the ratio of the two. Synthesis. Pollen type diversity is a robust index that captures vegetation structure and landscape diversity. It is ideally suited for between site comparisons as it does not require high pollen counts. In concert with pollen type richness and evenness, it helps evaluating the effect of climate change and human land use on vegetation structure on long timescales.

Duration of a flood along a plant diversity gradient in the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, June 2013)

The Jena Biodiversity Experiment is located on a Central European mesophilic floodplain on the banks of the Saale River (see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown in the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, or 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. In June 2013, a natural 200-year flood event occurred at the field site. Rainfall in May 2013 in Jena was ~150mm, constituting >25% of annual precipitation at the site that year. Overall the flood affected the entire Elbe River Basin and much of Europe and was one of the largest natural flooding events in the past two centuries. The flood lasted for a total of 24 days at the site (30 May-24 June) and led to anaerobic soil conditions. Due to small topographical differences among the plots in the experiment (<1m), there was variation in the duration of flooding and the proportion of each plot that was flooded. This variation was well-distributed across the diversity gradient. To assess the importance of flood severity, the proportion of each plot that was flooded was estimated by eye (using five classes: 0 completely dry, 0.25 up to a quarter under water, 0.5 half, 0.75 up to three quarters under water, and 1 more than three quarters under water up to completely submerged). These values, for each of the 24 days that the flood lasted, were summed up to calculate a flooding index. The resulting flooding index is given for each plot of the Main Experiment.

On The Dirichlet Distribution

The Dirichlet distribution is a multivariate generalization of the Beta distribution. It is an important multivariate continuous distribution in probability and statistics. In this report, we review the Dirichlet distribution and study its properties, including statistical and information-theoretic quantities involving this distribution. Also, relationships between the Dirichlet distribution and other distributions are discussed. There are some different ways to think about generating random variables with a Dirichlet distribution. The stick-breaking approach and the Pólya urn method are discussed. In Bayesian statistics, the Dirichlet distribution and the generalized Dirichlet distribution can both be a conjugate prior for the Multinomial distribution. The Dirichlet distribution has many applications in different fields. We focus on the unsupervised learning of a finite mixture model based on the Dirichlet distribution. The Initialization Algorithm and Dirichlet Mixture Estimation Algorithm are both reviewed for estimating the parameters of a Dirichlet mixture. Three experimental results are shown for the estimation of artificial histograms, summarization of image databases and human skin detection.