河流成因储层沉积微相与剩余油分布及形成机理研究

Based on the study of fluvial sandstone reservoir in upper of Guantao group in Gudao and Gudong oilfields, this paper first introduces A.D.Miall's(1996a) architectural-element analysis method that was summarized from ground outcrop scale into the reservoir formation research of the study area, more subtly divides sedimentary microfacies and establishes sedimentary model of research area.on this base, this paper summarizes the laws of residual oil distribution of fluvial formation and the control effect of sedimentary microfacies to residual oil distribution, and reveals residual oil formation mechanism. These results have been applied to residual oil production, and the economic effect is good. This paper will be useful for residual oil research and production and enhancement of oil recovery in similar reservoir. The major conclusions of this paper are as follows. 1. Using the architectural-element analysis method to the core data, a interfacial division scheme of the first to the dixth scale is established for the studied fluvial formation. 2.Seven architectural-elements are divided in upper of Guantao group of study area. The sandstone group 5～1+2 of Neogene upper Gutao group belongs to high sinuous fine grain meandering river, and the sandstone group 6 is sandy braided river. 3. Inter layer, the residual oil saturation of "non-main layer" is higher than "main layer", but the residual recoverable reserve of former is larger. Therefore, "main layer" is the main body of residual oil distribution. The upper and middle part of inner layer has lower permeability and strong seeping resistance. Addition to gravity effect in process of driving, its driving efficiency is low; residual oil saturation is high. Because of controlling of inside non-permeable interlayer or sedimentary construction, the residual oil saturation of non-driving or lower driving efficiency position also is high. On plane, the position of high residual oil saturation mostly is at element LV, CS, CH (FF), FF etc, Which has lower porosity and permeability, as well as lens sand-body and sand-body edge that is not controlled by well-net, non-perfect area of injection and production, lower press difference resort area of inter-well diffiuent-line and shelter from fault, local high position of small structure. 4.Microscopic residual oil mainly includes the non-moved oil in the structure of fine pore network, oil in fine pore and path, oil segment in pore and path vertical to flow direction, oil spot or oil film in big pore, residual oil in non-connective pore. 5.The most essential and internal controlling factor of fluvial formation residual oil distribution is sedimentary microfacies. Status of injection and production is the exterior controlling factor of residual oil distribution. 6. The controlling effect of formation sedimentary microfacies to residual oil distribution indicates inter-layer vertical sedimentary facies change in scale of injection and production layer-series, planar sedimentary face change and inner-layer vertical sedimentary rhythm and interbed in single layer to residual oil distribution. 7. It is difficult to clear up the inter-layer difference in scale of injection and production layer-series. The using status of minor layer is not good and its residual oil saturation is high relatively. It is obvious that inter-layer vertical sedimentary facies changes control inter-layer residual oil distribution at the same or similar conditions of injection and production. For fluvial formation, this vertical sedimentary facies change mainly is positive gyration. Namely, from down to top, channel sediment (element CHL, LA) changes into over-bank sediment (element LV, CR, CS). 8. In water-injection developing process of transverse connecting fluvial sandstone oil formation, injection water always comes into channel nearby, and breaks through along channel and orientation of high pressure gradient, does not expand into side of channel until pressure gradient of channel orientation changes into low. It brings about that water-driving status of over-bank sedimentary element formation (LV, CR, CS) is not good, residual oil saturation is high. In non-connective abandoned channel element (CH) formation with channel, because this reverse is difficult to control by injection and production well-series, its using status is not good, even terribly not good, residual oil is enrichment. 9. The rhythm and sedimentary structure, sedimentary facies change in single sand body brings about vertical changes of formation character, growth character of inner layer interbed. These are important factor of controlling and affecting vertical water spread volume and inner layer residual oil forming and distribution in single sand body. Positive rhythm, is the principal part of fluvial sandstone inner layer sedimentary rhythm. Namely, from down to upside, rock grain granularity changes from coarse to fine, seeping ability changes from strong to feebleness. It brings about that water-driving status of inner layer upside is not good, residual oil saturation is high. Inner layer interbed has different degree affecting and controlling effect to seeping of oil and water. Its affecting degree lies on interbed thickness, extending scale, position, and jeted segment of production or injection well. The effect of interbed at upside of oil formation to oil and water seeping is less; the effect of interbed at middle of oil formation to oil and water seeping is more. 10. Indoor experiment and research indicate that wettability, permeability step, vertical permeability, position of Kmax and ratio of oil viscousity and water viscousity all have great effect on the water-driving recovery ratio. 11. Microscopic residual oil distribution is affected and controlled by formation pore network structure, pressure field distribution, and oil characteristic. 12.The residual oil forming mechanism: the over-bank sedimentary element and upper part of a positive rhythm sandstone have fine pore and throat network, permeability is low, displacement pressure of pore and throat is high. The water-driving power usually falls short of displacement pressure that brings about injection water does not spread into these pore and throat network, thereby immovable oil area, namely residual oil, is formed. At underside of channel sedimentary element and positive rhythm sandstone, porosity and permeability is relatively high, connecting degree of pore and throat is high, displacement pressure of pore and throat is low. Thereby injection water is easy to enter into pore and throat, driving oil in them. Because the pore space is irregular, the surface of pore wall is coarse and non-flat. That the oil locate on concave hole of pore wall and the dead angle of pore, and the oil attaches on surface of pore wall by surface tension, are difficult to be peeled off, becoming water-driving residual oil (remaining oil). On the other hand, Because flowing section lessens, flowing resistance increase, action of capillary fore, or seeping speed decreases at process of transfer at pass narrow throat path in the course carried by driving water. The "oil drop", "oil bead", or "oil segment" peeled off by driving water is difficult to carry and to drive out by water at less pressure difference. Thereby they are enclosed in pore to form discontinuous residual oil. 13.This results described above have been applied in nine develop blocks of Gudao and Gudong oilfield. Its applying effect is marked through local injection production adjustment, deploying replacement well, repair hole, replacement envelop, block off water and profile control etc. Relative method and technology can be applied to other oil production area of Shengli oilfield, and obtain better economic and societal effect.

用宽频带远震体波波形研究中国及邻近地区地壳构造及地质意义初探

The theory and approach of the broadband teleseismic body waveform inversion are expatiated in this paper, and the defining the crust structure's methods are developed. Based on the teleseismic P-wave data, the theoretic image of the P-wave radical component is calculated via the convolution of the teleseismic P-wave vertical component and the transform function, and thereby a P-wavefrom inversion method is built. The applied results show the approach effective, stable and its resolution high. The exact and reliable teleseismic P waveforms recorded by CDSN and IRIS and its geodynamics are utilized to obtain China and its vicinage lithospheric transfer functions, this region ithospheric structure is inverted through the inversion of reliable transfer functions, the new knowledge about the deep structure of China and its vicinage is obtained, and the reliable seismological evidence is provided to reveal the geodynamic evolution processes and set up the continental collisional theory. The major studies are as follows: Two important methods to study crustal and upper mantle structure -- body wave travel-time inversion and waveform modeling are reviewed systematically. Based on ray theory, travel-time inversion is characterized by simplicity, crustal and upper mantle velocity model can be obtained by using 1-D travel-time inversion preliminary, which introduces the reference model for studying focal location, focal mechanism, and fine structure of crustal and upper mantle. The large-scale lateral inhomogeneity of crustal and upper mantle can be obtained by three-dimensional t ravel-time seismic tomography. Based on elastic dynamics, through the fitting between theoretical seismogram and observed seismogram, waveform modeling can interpret the detail waveform and further uncover one-dimensional fine structure and lateral variation of crustal and upper mantle, especially the media characteristics of singular zones of ray. Whatever travel-time inversion and waveform modeling is supposed under certain approximate conditions, with respective advantages and disadvantages, and provide convincing structure information for elucidating physical and chemical features and geodynamic processes of crustal and upper mantle. Because the direct wave, surface wave, and refraction wave have lower resolution in investigating seismic velocity transitional zone, which is inadequate to study seismic discontinuities. On the contrary, both the converse and reflected wave, which sample the discontinuities directly, must be carefully picked up from seismogram to constrain the velocity transitional zones. Not only can the converse wave and reflected wave study the crustal structure, but also investigate the upper mantle discontinuities. There are a number of global and regional seismic discontinuities in the crustal and upper mantle, which plays a significant role in understanding physical and chemical properties and geodynamic processes of crustal and upper mantle. The broadband teleseismic P waveform inversion is studied particularly. The teleseismic P waveforms contain a lot of information related to source time function, near-source structure, propagation effect through the mantle, receiver structure, and instrument response, receiver function is isolated form teleseismic P waveform through the vector rotation of horizontal components into ray direction and the deconvolution of vertical component from the radial and tangential components of ground motion, the resulting time series is dominated by local receiver structure effect, and is hardly irrelevant to source and deep mantle effects. Receiver function is horizontal response, which eliminate multiple P wave reflection and retain direct wave and P-S converted waves, and is sensitive to the vertical variation of S wave velocity. Velocity structure beneath a seismic station has different response to radial and vertical component of an accident teleseismic P wave. To avoid the limits caused by a simplified assumption on the vertical response, the receiver function method is mended. In the frequency domain, the transfer function is showed by the ratio of radical response and vertical response of the media to P wave. In the time domain, the radial synthetic waveform can be obtained by the convolution of the transfer function with the vertical wave. In order to overcome the numerical instability, generalized reflection and transmission coefficient matrix method is applied to calculate the synthetic waveform so that all multi-reflection and phase conversion response can be included. A new inversion method, VFSA-LM method, is used in this study, which successfully combines very fast simulated annealing method (VFSA) with damped least square inversion method (LM). Synthetic waveform inversion test confirms its effectiveness and efficiency. Broadband teleseismic P waveform inversion is applied in lithospheric velocity study of China and its vicinage. According to the data of high quality CDSN and IRIS, we obtained an outline map showing the distribution of Asian continental crustal thickness. Based on these results gained, the features of distribution of the crustal thickness and outline of crustal structure under the Asian continent have been analyzed and studied. Finally, this paper advances the principal characteristics of the Asian continental crust. There exist four vast areas of relatively minor variations in the crustal thickness, namely, northern, eastern southern and central areas of Asian crust. As a byproduct, the earthquake location is discussed, Which is a basic issue in seismology. Because of the strong trade-off between the assumed initial time and focal depth and the nonlinear of the inversion problems, this issue is not settled at all. Aimed at the problem, a new earthquake location method named SAMS method is presented, In which, the objective function is the absolute value of the remnants of travel times together with the arrival times and use the Fast Simulated Annealing method is used to inverse. Applied in the Chi-Chi event relocation of Taiwan occurred on Sep 21, 2000, the results show that the SAMS method not only can reduce the effects of the trade-off between the initial time and focal depth, but can get better stability and resolving power. At the end of the paper, the inverse Q filtering method for compensating attenuation and frequency dispersion used in the seismic section of depth domain is discussed. According to the forward and inverse results of synthesized seismic records, our Q filtrating operator of the depth domain is consistent with the seismic laws in the absorbing media, which not only considers the effect of the media absorbing of the waves, but also fits the deformation laws, namely the frequency dispersion of the body wave. Two post stacked profiles about 60KM, a neritic area of China processed, the result shows that after the forward Q filtering of the depth domain, the wide of the wavelet of the middle and deep layers is compressed, the resolution and signal noise ratio are enhanced, and the primary sharp and energy distribution of the profile are retained.

正常成人脑波超慢涨落图随龄变化特点的研究

A study on teh encephalofluctuographic changes with age is accomplished in 120 normal adults of 20 to 9 years old by using the cross-sectional method. The results show: 1) Power peak values of S-spectra moved toward low-frequency with age from 20 to 59 years old, and then shifted backward to some extent after 60 years old; 2)There are obvious age-related changes in some spectral series; 3)The coherence between or among different brain areas and the continuous frequencies in teh brain areas enhanced, and the power distribution is disordered gradually with age; 4)Age-related changes were displayed chiefly in dominant brain area (left-anterior brain) and dominant brain axis (left-anterior / right posterior brain), in which there is the distinctest degeneration in the left-anterior brain closely related to higher brain function.

Series Elastic Actuators

This thesis presents the design, construction, control and evaluation of a novel force controlled actuator. Traditional force controlled actuators are designed from the premise that "Stiffer is better''. This approach gives a high bandwidth system, prone to problems of contact instability, noise, and low power density. The actuator presented in this thesis is designed from the premise that "Stiffness isn't everything". The actuator, which incorporates a series elastic element, trades off achievable bandwidth for gains in stable, low noise force control, and protection against shock loads. This thesis reviews related work in robot force control, presents theoretical descriptions of the control and expected performance from a series elastic actuator, and describes the design of a test actuator constructed to gather performance data. Finally the performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the performance data to theoretical predictions.

Representations and evolutionary operators for the scheduling of pump operations in water distribution networks.

Reducing the energy consumption of water distribution networks has never had more significance. The greatest energy savings can be obtained by carefully scheduling the operations of pumps. Schedules can be defined either implicitly, in terms of other elements of the network such as tank levels, or explicitly by specifying the time during which each pump is on/off. The traditional representation of explicit schedules is a string of binary values with each bit representing pump on/off status during a particular time interval. In this paper, we formally define and analyze two new explicit representations based on time-controlled triggers, where the maximum number of pump switches is established beforehand and the schedule may contain less switches than the maximum. In these representations, a pump schedule is divided into a series of integers with each integer representing the number of hours for which a pump is active/inactive. This reduces the number of potential schedules compared to the binary representation, and allows the algorithm to operate on the feasible region of the search space. We propose evolutionary operators for these two new representations. The new representations and their corresponding operations are compared with the two most-used representations in pump scheduling, namely, binary representation and level-controlled triggers. A detailed statistical analysis of the results indicates which parameters have the greatest effect on the performance of evolutionary algorithms. The empirical results show that an evolutionary algorithm using the proposed representations improves over the results obtained by a recent state-of-the-art Hybrid Genetic Algorithm for pump scheduling using level-controlled triggers.

On the Size Distribution of Autonomous Systems

This paper explores reasons for the high degree of variability in the sizes of ASes that have recently been observed, and the processes by which this variable distribution develops. AS size distribution is important for a number of reasons. First, when modeling network topologies, an AS size distribution assists in labeling routers with an associated AS. Second, AS size has been found to be positively correlated with the degree of the AS (number of peering links), so understanding the distribution of AS sizes has implications for AS connectivity properties. Our model accounts for AS births, growth, and mergers. We analyze two models: one incorporates only the growth of hosts and ASes, and a second extends that model to include mergers of ASes. We show analytically that, given reasonable assumptions about the nature of mergers, the resulting size distribution exhibits a power law tail with the exponent independent of the details of the merging process. We estimate parameters of the models from measurements obtained from Internet registries and from BGP tables. We then compare the models solutions to empirical AS size distribution taken from Mercator and Skitter datasets, and find that the simple growth-based model yields general agreement with empirical data. Our analysis of the model in which mergers occur in a manner independent of the size of the merging ASes suggests that more detailed analysis of merger processes is needed.

Geometric Generalizations of the Power of Two Choices

A well-known paradigm for load balancing in distributed systems is the``power of two choices,''whereby an item is stored at the less loaded of two (or more) random alternative servers. We investigate the power of two choices in natural settings for distributed computing where items and servers reside in a geometric space and each item is associated with the server that is its nearest neighbor. This is in fact the backdrop for distributed hash tables such as Chord, where the geometric space is determined by clockwise distance on a one-dimensional ring. Theoretically, we consider the following load balancing problem. Suppose that servers are initially hashed uniformly at random to points in the space. Sequentially, each item then considers d candidate insertion points also chosen uniformly at random from the space,and selects the insertion point whose associated server has the least load. For the one-dimensional ring, and for Euclidean distance on the two-dimensional torus, we demonstrate that when n data items are hashed to n servers,the maximum load at any server is log log n / log d + O(1) with high probability. While our results match the well-known bounds in the standard setting in which each server is selected equiprobably, our applications do not have this feature, since the sizes of the nearest-neighbor regions around servers are non-uniform. Therefore, the novelty in our methods lies in developing appropriate tail bounds on the distribution of nearest-neighbor region sizes and in adapting previous arguments to this more general setting. In addition, we provide simulation results demonstrating the load balance that results as the system size scales into the millions.

On the Origin of Power Laws in Internet Topologies

Recent empirical studies have shown that Internet topologies exhibit power laws of the form for the following relationships: (P1) outdegree of node (domain or router) versus rank; (P2) number of nodes versus outdegree; (P3) number of node pairs y = x^α within a neighborhood versus neighborhood size (in hops); and (P4) eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix versus rank. However, causes for the appearance of such power laws have not been convincingly given. In this paper, we examine four factors in the formation of Internet topologies. These factors are (F1) preferential connectivity of a new node to existing nodes; (F2) incremental growth of the network; (F3) distribution of nodes in space; and (F4) locality of edge connections. In synthetically generated network topologies, we study the relevance of each factor in causing the aforementioned power laws as well as other properties, namely diameter, average path length and clustering coefficient. Different kinds of network topologies are generated: (T1) topologies generated using our parametrized generator, we call BRITE; (T2) random topologies generated using the well-known Waxman model; (T3) Transit-Stub topologies generated using GT-ITM tool; and (T4) regular grid topologies. We observe that some generated topologies may not obey power laws P1 and P2. Thus, the existence of these power laws can be used to validate the accuracy of a given tool in generating representative Internet topologies. Power laws P3 and P4 were observed in nearly all considered topologies, but different topologies showed different values of the power exponent α. Thus, while the presence of power laws P3 and P4 do not give strong evidence for the representativeness of a generated topology, the value of α in P3 and P4 can be used as a litmus test for the representativeness of a generated topology. We also find that factors F1 and F2 are the key contributors in our study which provide the resemblance of our generated topologies to that of the Internet.

Resonant power conversion topologies for inductive charging of electrical vehicle batteries

This thesis is concerned with inductive charging of electric vehicle batteries. Rectified power form the 50/60 Hz utility feeds a dc-ac converter which delivers high-frequency ac power to the electric vehicle inductive coupling inlet. The inlet configuration has been defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers in Recommended Practice J-1773. This thesis studies converter topologies related to the series resonant converter. When coupled to the vehicle inlet, the frequency-controlled series-resonant converter results in a capacitively-filtered series-parallel LCLC (SP-LCLC) resonant converter topology with zero voltage switching and many other desirable features. A novel time-domain transformation analysis, termed Modal Analysis, is developed, using a state variable transformation, to analyze and characterize this multi-resonant fourth-orderconverter. Next, Fundamental Mode Approximation (FMA) Analysis, based on a voltage-source model of the load, and its novel extension, Rectifier-Compensated FMA (RCFMA) Analysis, are developed and applied to the SP-LCLC converter. The RCFMA Analysis is a simpler and more intuitive analysis than the Modal Analysis, and provides a relatively accurate closed-form solution for the converter behavior. Phase control of the SP-LCLC converter is investigated as a control option. FMA and RCFMA Analyses are used for detailed characterization. The analyses identify areas of operation, which are also validated experimentally, where it is advantageous to phase control the converter. A novel hybrid control scheme is proposed which integrates frequency and phase control and achieves reduced operating frequency range and improved partial-load efficiency. The phase-controlled SP-LCLC converter can also be configured with a parallel load and is an excellent option for the application. The resulting topology implements soft-switching over the entire load range and has high full-load and partial-load efficiencies. RCFMA Analysis is used to analyze and characterize the new converter topology, and good correlation is shown with experimental results. Finally, a novel single-stage power-factor-corrected ac-dc converter is introduced, which uses the current-source characteristic of the SP-LCLC topology to provide power factor correction over a wide output power range from zero to full load. This converter exhibits all the advantageous characteristics of its dc-dc counterpart, with a reduced parts count and cost. Simulation and experimental results verify the operation of the new converter.

Power system parameters forecasting using Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

Analysis of soil carbon transit times and age distributions using network theories

The long-term soil carbon dynamics may be approximated by networks of linear compartments, permitting theoretical analysis of transit time (i.e., the total time spent by a molecule in the system) and age (the time elapsed since the molecule entered the system) distributions. We compute and compare these distributions for different network. configurations, ranging from the simple individual compartment, to series and parallel linear compartments, feedback systems, and models assuming a continuous distribution of decay constants. We also derive the transit time and age distributions of some complex, widely used soil carbon models (the compartmental models CENTURY and Rothamsted, and the continuous-quality Q-Model), and discuss them in the context of long-term carbon sequestration in soils. We show how complex models including feedback loops and slow compartments have distributions with heavier tails than simpler models. Power law tails emerge when using continuous-quality models, indicating long retention times for an important fraction of soil carbon. The responsiveness of the soil system to changes in decay constants due to altered climatic conditions or plant species composition is found to be stronger when all compartments respond equally to the environmental change, and when the slower compartments are more sensitive than the faster ones or lose more carbon through microbial respiration. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Distribution of important and word-cued autobiographical memories in 20-, 35-, and 70-year-old adults.

For word-cued autobiographical memories, older adults had an increase, or bump, from the ages 10 to 30. All age groups had fewer memories from childhood than from other years and a power-function retention for memories from the most recent 10 years. There were no consistent differences in reaction times and rating scale responses across decades. Concrete words cued older memories, but no property of the cues predicted which memories would come from the bump. The 5 most important memories given by 20- and 35-year-old participants were distributed similarly to their word-cued memories, but those given by 70-year-old participants came mostly from the single 20-to-30 decade. No theory fully accounts for the bump.

The distribution of autobiographical memories across the lifespan.

Words were used to cue autobiographical memories from 20- and 70-year-old subjects. Both groups showed a decrease in memories from the childhood years and a power-function retention function for their most recent 10 years. Older subjects also had an increase in the number of memories from the ages 10 to 30. These results held for individual subjects as well as grouped data and held when either 124 or 921 memories were cued. Reaction times to produce memories were constant across decades except for childhood where they were longer.

Global value Chains, rising power firms and economic and social upgrading

© Emerald Group Publishing Limited.Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the global value chain (GVC) approach to understand the relationship between multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the changing patterns of global trade, investment and production, and its impact on economic and social upgrading. It aims to illuminate how GVCs can advance our understanding about MNEs and rising power (RP) firms and their impact on economic and social upgrading in fragmented and dispersed global production systems. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews theGVCliterature focusing on two conceptual elements of the GVC approach, governance and upgrading, and highlights three key recent developments in GVCs: concentration, regionalization and synergistic governance. Findings – The paper underscores the complicated role of GVCs in shaping economic and social upgrading for emerging economies, RP firms and developing country firms in general. Rising geographic and organizational concentration in GVCs leads to the uneven distribution of upgrading opportunities in favor of RP firms, and yet economic upgrading may be elusive even for the most established suppliers because of power asymmetry with global buyers. Shifting end markets and the regionalization of value chains can benefit RP firms by presenting alternative markets for upgrading. Yet, without further upgrading, such benefits may be achieved at the expense of social downgrading. Finally, the ineffectiveness of private standards to achieve social upgrading has led to calls for synergistic governance through the cooperation of private, public and social actors, both global and local. Originality/value – The paper illuminates how the GVC approach and its key concepts can contribute to the critical international business and RP firms literature by examining the latest dynamics in GVCs and their impacts on economic and social development in developing countries.

Reliability analysis for power electronics modules

This paper discusses the reliability of power electronics modules. The approach taken combines numerical modeling techniques with experimentation and accelerated testing to identify failure modes and mechanisms for the power module structure and most importantly the root cause of a potential failure. The paper details results for two types of failure (i) wire bond fatigue and (ii) substrate delamination. Finite element method modeling techniques have been used to predict the stress distribution within the module structures. A response surface optimisation approach has been employed to enable the optimal design and parameter sensitivity to be determined. The response surface is used by a Monte Carlo method to determine the effects of uncertainty in the design.