Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.

The visual cortex in Alzheimer disease:laminar distribution of the pathological changes in visual areas V1 and V2

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an important neurodegenerative disorder causing visual problems in the elderly population. The pathology of AD includes the deposition in the brain of abnormal aggregates of ?-amyloid (A?) in the form of senile plaques (SP) and abnormally phosphorylated tau in the form of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). A variety of visual problems have been reported in patients with AD including loss of visual acuity (VA), colour vision and visual fields; changes in pupillary responses to mydriatics, defects in fixation and in smooth and saccadic eye movements; changes in contrast sensitivity and in visual evoked potentials (VEP); and disturbances in complex visual tasks such as reading, visuospatial function, and in the naming and identification of objects. In addition, pathological changes have been observed to affect the eye, visual pathway, and visual cortex in AD. To better understand degeneration of the visual cortex in AD, the laminar distribution of the SP and NFT was studied in visual areas V1 and V2 in 18 cases of AD which varied in disease onset and duration. In area V1, the mean density of SP and NFT reached a maximum in lamina III and in laminae II and III respectively. In V2, mean SP density was maximal in laminae III and IV and NFT density in laminae II and III. The densities of SP in laminae I of V1 and NFT in lamina IV of V2 were negatively correlated with patient age. No significant correlations were observed in any cortical lamina between the density of NFT and disease onset or duration. However, in area V2, the densities of SP in lamina II and lamina V were negatively correlated with disease duration and disease onset respectively. In addition, there were several positive correlations between the densities of SP and NFT in V1 with those in area V2. The data suggest: (1) NFT pathology is greater in area V2 than V1, (2) laminae II/III of V1 and V2 are most affected by the pathology, (3) the formation of SP and NFT in V1 and V2 are interconnected, and (4) the pathology may spread between visual areas via the feed-forward short cortico-cortical connections.

Statnote 36: Do the data fit the Poisson distribution

In previous Statnotes, many of the statistical tests described rely on the assumption that the data are a random sample from a normal or Gaussian distribution. These include most of the tests in common usage such as the ‘t’ test ), the various types of analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (‘r’) . In microbiology research, however, not all variables can be assumed to follow a normal distribution. Yeast populations, for example, are a notable feature of freshwater habitats, representatives of over 100 genera having been recorded . Most common are the ‘red yeasts’ such as Rhodotorula, Rhodosporidium, and Sporobolomyces and ‘black yeasts’ such as Aurobasidium pelculans, together with species of Candida. Despite the abundance of genera and species, the overall density of an individual species in freshwater is likely to be low and hence, samples taken from such a population will contain very low numbers of cells. A rare organism living in an aquatic environment may be distributed more or less at random in a volume of water and therefore, samples taken from such an environment may result in counts which are more likely to be distributed according to the Poisson than the normal distribution. The Poisson distribution was named after the French mathematician Siméon Poisson (1781-1840) and has many applications in biology, especially in describing rare or randomly distributed events, e.g., the number of mutations in a given sequence of DNA after exposure to a fixed amount of radiation or the number of cells infected by a virus given a fixed level of exposure. This Statnote describes how to fit the Poisson distribution to counts of yeast cells in samples taken from a freshwater lake.

Prophylactic ranitidine treatment in critically ill children - a population pharmacokinetic study

Aims - To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Methods - Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Results - A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (−12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h−1 for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h−1 and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Conclusions - Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary.

Population pharmacokinetic model of canrenone after intravenous administration of potassium canrenoate to paediatric patients

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT • Little is known about the pharmacokinetics of potassium canrenoate/canrenone in paediatric patients WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS • A population pharmacokinetic model has been developed to evaluate the pharmacokinetics of canrenone in paediatric patients who received potassium canrenoate as part of their therapy in the intensive care unit. AIMS To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of canrenone following administration of potassium canrenoate to paediatric patients. METHODS Data were collected prospectively from 23 paediatric patients (2 days to 10 years of age; median weight 4 kg, range 2.16–28.0 kg) who received intravenous potassium canrenoate (K-canrenoate) as part of their intensive care therapy for removal of retained fluids, e.g. in pulmonary oedema due to chronic lung disease and for the management of congestive heart failure. Plasma samples were analyzed by HPLC for determination of canrenone (the major metabolite and pharmacologically active moiety) and the data subjected to pharmacokinetic analysis using NONMEM. RESULTS A one compartment model best described the data. The only significant covariate was weight (WT). The final population models for canrenone clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) were CL/F (l h−1) = 11.4 × (WT/70.0)0.75 and V/F (l) = 374.2 × (WT/70) where WT is in kg. The values of CL/F and V/F in a 4 kg child would be 1.33 l h−1 and 21.4 l, respectively, resulting in an elimination half-life of 11.2 h. CONCLUSIONS The range of estimated CL/F in the study population was 0.67–7.38 l h−1. The data suggest that adjustment of K-canrenoate dosage according to body weight is appropriate in paediatric patients.

Potassium canrenoate treatment in paediatric patients:a population pharmacokinetic study using novel dried blood spot sampling

Objective: To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of canrenone following administration of potassium canrenoate (K-canrenoate) in paediatric patients. Methods: Data were collected prospectively from 37 paediatric patients (median weight 2.9 kg, age range 2 days–0.85 years) who received intravenous K-canrenoate for management of retained fluids, for example in heart failure and chronic lung disease. Dried blood spot (DBS) samples (n = 213) from these were analysed for canrenone content and the data subjected to pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Another group of patients (n = 16) who had 71 matching plasma and DBS samples was analysed separately to compare canrenone pharmacokinetic parameters obtained using the two different matrices. Results: A one-compartment model best described the DBS data. Significant covariates were weight, postmenstrual age (PMA) and gestational age. The final population models for canrenone clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) in DBS were CL/F (l/h) = 12.86 ×  (WT/70.0)0.75 × e [0.066 ×  (PMA - 40]) and V/F (l) = 603.30 ×  (WT/70) × (GA/40)1.89 where weight is in kilograms. The corresponding values of CL/F and V/F in a patient with a median weight of 2.9 kg are 1.11 l/h and 20.48 l, respectively. Estimated half-life of canrenone based on DBS concentrations was similar to that based on matched plasma concentrations (19.99 and 19.37 h, respectively, in 70 kg patient). Conclusion: The range of estimated CL/F in DBS for the study population was 0.12–9.62 l/h; hence, bodyweight-based dosage adjustment of K-canrenoate appears necessary. However, a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and age (PMA/gestational age) of paediatric patients seems more appropriate.

Population pharmacokinetics of single-dose intravenous paracetamol in children

Background To determine the pharmacokinetics (PK) of a new i.v. formulation of paracetamol (Perfalgan) in children ≤15 yr of age. Methods After obtaining written informed consent, children under 16 yr of age were recruited to this study. Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15, 30 min, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 h after administration of a weight-dependent dose of i.v. paracetamol. Paracetamol concentration was measured using a validated high-performance liquid chromatographic assay with ultraviolet detection method, with a lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) of 900 pg on column and an intra-day coefficient of variation of 14.3% at the LLOQ. Population PK analysis was performed by non-linear mixed-effect modelling using NONMEM. Results One hundred and fifty-nine blood samples from 33 children aged 1.8–15 yr, weight 13.7–56 kg, were analysed. Data were best described by a two-compartment model. Only body weight as a covariate significantly improved the goodness of fit of the model. The final population models for paracetamol clearance (CL), V1 (central volume of distribution), Q (inter-compartmental clearance), and V2 (peripheral volume of distribution) were: 16.51×(WT/70)0.75, 28.4×(WT/70), 11.32×(WT/70)0.75, and 13.26×(WT/70), respectively (CL, Q in litres per hour, WT in kilograms, and V1 and V2 in litres). Conclusions In children aged 1.8–15 yr, the PK parameters for i.v. paracetamol were not influenced directly by age but were by total body weight and, using allometric size scaling, significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

Statnote 39: The binomial distribution: comparing two proportions

Many populations consist of two classes only, e.g., alive or dead, present or absent, clean or dirty, infected or non-infected, and it is the proportion or percentage of observations that fall into one of these classes that is of interest to an investigator. An observation that falls into one of the two classes is considered a ‘success’ (S), and ‘p’ is defined as the proportion of observations falling into that class. If a random sample of size ‘n’ is obtained from a population, the probability of obtaining 0, 1, 2, 3, etc., successes is then given by the binomial distribution. The binomial distribution can be used as the basis of a number of statistical tests but is most useful when comparing two proportions. This statnote describes two such scenarios in which the binomial distribution is used to compare: (1) two proportions when the samples are independent and (2) two proportions when the samples are paired.

Accuracy and optimal sampling in Monte Carlo solution of population balance equations

Implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation for the solution of population balance equations (PBEs) requires choice of initial sample number (N0), number of replicates (M), and number of bins for probability distribution reconstruction (n). It is found that Squared Hellinger Distance, H2, is a useful measurement of the accuracy of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, and can be related directly to N0, M, and n. Asymptotic approximations of H2 are deduced and tested for both one-dimensional (1-D) and 2-D PBEs with coalescence. The central processing unit (CPU) cost, C, is found in a power-law relationship, C= aMNb0, with the CPU cost index, b, indicating the weighting of N0 in the total CPU cost. n must be chosen to balance accuracy and resolution. For fixed n, M × N0 determines the accuracy of MC prediction; if b > 1, then the optimal solution strategy uses multiple replications and small sample size. Conversely, if 0 < b < 1, one replicate and a large initial sample size is preferred. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 2394–2402, 2015

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

The enantioselective population pharmacokinetics of intravenous ketorolac in children using a stereoselective assay suitable for microanalysis

Objective: To describe the effect of age and body size on enantiomer selective pharmacokinetic (PK) of intravenous ketorolac in children using a microanalytical assay. Methods: Blood samples were obtained at 0, 15 and 30 min and at 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 and 12 h after a weight-dependent dose of ketorolac. Enantiomer concentration was measured using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method. Non-linear mixed-effect modelling was used to assess PK parameters. Key findings: Data from 11 children (1.7–15.6 years, weight 10.7–67.4 kg) were best described by a two-compartment model for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Only weight (WT) significantly improved the goodness of fit. The final population models were CL = 1.5 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 8.2 × (WT/46), Q = 3.4 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 7.9 × (WT/46), CL = 2.98 × (WT/46), V1 = 13.2 × (WT/46), Q = 2.8 × (WT/46)0.75, V2 = 51.5 × (WT/46), and CL = 1.1 × (WT/46)0.75, V1 = 4.9 × (WT/46), Q = 1.7 × (WT/46)0.75 and V2 = 6.3 × (WT/46)for R(+), S(−) and racemic ketorolac. Conclusions: Only body weight influenced the PK parameters for R(+) and S(−) ketorolac. Using allometric size scaling significantly affected the clearances (CL, Q) and volumes of distribution (V1, V2).

The visual cortex in alzheimer's disease:laminar distribution of the pathological changes in visual areas V1 and V2

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is an important neurodegenerative disorder causing visual problems in the elderly population. The pathology of AD includes the deposition in the brain of abnormal aggregates of β-amyloid (Aβ) in the form of senile plaques (SP) and abnormally phosphorylated tau in the form of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). A variety of visual problems have been reported in patients with AD including loss of visual acuity (VA), colour vision and visual fields; changes in pupillary responses to mydriatics, defects in fixation and in smooth and saccadic eye movements; changes in contrast sensitivity and in visual evoked potentials (VEP); and disturbances in complex visual tasks such as reading, visuospatial function, and in the naming and identification of objects. In addition, pathological changes have been observed to affect the eye, visual pathway, and visual cortex in AD. To better understand degeneration of the visual cortex in AD, the laminar distribution of the SP and NFT was studied in visual areas V1 and V2 in 18 cases of AD which varied in disease onset and duration. In area V1, the mean density of SP and NFT reached a maximum in lamina III and in laminae II and III respectively. In V2, mean SP density was maximal in laminae III and IV and NFT density in laminae II and III. The densities of SP in laminae I of V1 and NFT in lamina IV of V2 were negatively correlated with patient age. No significant correlations were observed in any cortical lamina between the density of NFT and disease onset or duration. However, in area V2, the densities of SP in lamina II and lamina V were negatively correlated with disease duration and disease onset respectively. In addition, there were several positive correlations between the densities of SP and NFT in V1 with those in area V2. The data suggest: (1) NFT pathology is greater in area V2 than V1, (2) laminae II/III of V1 and V2 are most affected by the pathology, (3) the formation of SP and NFT in V1 and V2 are interconnected, and (4) the pathology may spread between visual areas via the feed-forward short cortico-cortical connections. © 2012 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of yoked prisms on body posture and egocentric perception in a normal population

The principal theme of this thesis is the effect of yoked prisms on body posture and egocentric perception. Yoked prisms have been clinically used in the management of a variety of visual and neuro-motor dysfunctions. Most studies have been conducted in pathological populations by studying the effects of prismatic adaptation, without distinguishing short and long term effects. In this study, postural and perceptual prismatic effects have been studied by preventing prism adaptation. A healthy population was selected in order to investigate the immediate prismatic effects, when there is no obvious benefit from their use for the individual. Posturography was used to assess changes in weight distribution and shifts in centre of pressure (barycentre). In addition, photographic analyses were used to assess effects on posture on the x and z axis. Experiments with space board and visual midline shift were used for the evaluation of spatial perception and egocentric localisation. One pair of 8 Δ yoked prisms base left (BL) and one pair of 8 Δ yoked prisms base up (BU) were applied randomly and compared to a pair of plano lenses. Results suggest that immediate prismatic effects take place on a perceptual level and are reflected on an altered body posture respectively without significant changes in weight distribution. Yoked prisms BL showed a rightward rotational effect on spatial perception by expanding space on the z axis when viewing through the base of the prism and constricting space through the apex of the prism. Body posture responded respectively to what was visually perceived by altering posture. A rightward shift and tilt of the head was recorded along with the hips shift and shoulders tilt in the dame direction. Additionally, right shoulder shifted backwards and an angular midline shift to the right was recorded. The egocentric localisation was affected by shifting the midline perception to the left. Yoked prisms BU resulted on a head shift forward and a reduction of the head-neck angle by bringing the chin closer to the chest. The egocentric localisation was altered on the vertical axis providing subjects the perception that their eye level was higher during the experiment. In conclusion, yoked prisms seemed to induce changes in body posture, mainly in the upper body and head, without any significant changes in weight distribution. These changes are partially reflected in spatial perception tests and egocentric localisation before any prismatic adaptation takes place.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the ‘reaction–diffusion’ mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction–diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first—the ‘refuge mechanism’—hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the ‘dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism’ is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.