Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de “big data” de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

The Limits of political compromise: debt ceilings and political competition

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political competition in an economy where political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limits on government borrowing can exacerbate political-economy distortions by rendering a political compromise unsustainable. This tends to happen when political competition is limited. Conversely, a tight limit on the public debt fosters a compromise that yields the efficient outcome when political competition is vigorous, saving the economy from immiseration. Our analysis thus suggests a legislative tradeoff between restricting political competition and constraining the ability of governments to issue debt.

Foreign support, internal political disputes and mass killings

This paper studies the incentives underlying the relations between foreign countries and rival domestic groups. It models the interaction in a infinitely-repeated game between these three players. The domestic groups bargain for a split of the domestic surplus and may engage in violent dispute for power and in unilateral mass killing processes. The foreign country may choose to support one of these groups in exchange for monetary transfers. The paper characterizes the parametric set in which strategies leading to no violent disputes nor mass killings are Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibra in the presence of foreign support, but not in its absence.

Spatial spillovers and political coordination in public health provision

We estimate the impact of the main unconditional federal grant (Fundo de Participaçãodos Municípios - FPM) to Brazilian municipalities as well as its spillover from the neighboring cities on local health outcomes. We consider data from 2002 to 2007 (Brollo et al, 2013) and explore the FPM distribution rule according to population brackets to apply a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) using cities near the thresholds. In elasticity terms, we nd a reduction on infant mortality rate (-0.18) and on morbidity rate (- 0.41), except in the largest cities of our sample. We also nd an increase on the access to the main program of visiting the vulnerable families, the Family Health Program (Programa Sa ude da Família - PSF). The e ects are stronger for the smallest cities of our sample and we nd increase: (i) On the percentage of residents enrolled in the program (0.36), (ii) On the per capita number of PSF visits (1.59), and (iii) On the per capita number of PSF visits with a doctor (1.8) and nurse (2). After we control for the FPM spillover using neighboring cities near diferent thresholds, our results show that the reduction in morbidity and mortality is largely due to the spillover e ect, but there are negative spillover on preventive actions, as PSF doctors visits and vaccination. Finally, the negative spillover e ect on health resources may be due free riding or political coordination problems, as in the case of the number of hospital beds, but also due to to competition for health professionals, as in the case of number of doctors (-0.35 and -0.87, respectively), specially general practitioners and surgeons (-1.84 and -2.45).

Twitter e ciberativismo: o movimento social da hashtag #ForaMicarla em Natal-RN

The spatial and temporal fluidity conditioned by the technologies of social interaction online have been allowing that collective actions of protest and activism arise every day in cyberspace - the cyber-activism. If before these actions were located in geographical boundaries, today's demands and mobilizations extrapolate the location, connect to the global, and at the same time, return to the regional through digital virtuality. Within this context of the relationship between digital technology and global flow of sociability, emerges in October 2010 the social movement of the hashtag "#ForaMicarla", which means the dissatisfaction of cibernauts from Natal of Twitter with the current management of the municipality of Natal-RN, Micarla de Sousa (Green Party). We can find in the center of this movement and others who appeared in the world at the same time a technological condition of Twitter, with the hashtag "#". Given this scenario, this research seeks to analyze how the relationship of the agents of movement hashtag "ForaMicarla", based on the principle that it was formed in the Twitter network and is maintained on the platform on a daily basis, it can create a new kind of political culture. Thus, this study discusses theoretically the importance of Twitter and movements that emerge on the platform and through it to understand the social and political demands of the contemporary world and this public sphere, which now seems to include cyberspace

Parâmetros de concretização judicial do direito fundamental à saúde no fornecimento de medicamentos

In Brazil, social rights have always been considered secondary legal categories, whose implementation could wait for the pending of political decisions. At the end of the Second World War, International Law emphasizes the protection of human beings, raising his dignity as a legal pillar of the legal orders and one of the main foundations of Constitutions. At the post-positivism Constitutionalism, the realization of social rights receives special attention with the assumption of supremacy and normativity of the Constitutions, while the judiciary participates in the realization of democracy, not only as applicator of laws, but also as the guardian of constitutionality of the acts and administrative omissions, creatively contributing to the constitutional achievement, filling gaps and normative state omissions. In this aspect, the supply of medicines, whose costs can not be supported by the individual, keep a close connection with the right to life, health and dignity of the human being, as the subject of numerous lawsuits directed against the Public Administration. Such phenomenon has caused intense debate regarding judicial activism and legitimacy of these decisions, particularly on the need to define what are the limits and possibilities considering the principle of separation of powers and the principle of reserve of the possible; bieng this the problematic developed in this research. Thus, this research aims to verify the legitimacy of judicial decisions that determines to the Public Administration the compulsory providing of medicine to those who can not afford the cost of their treatment, as well as, contribute to the dogmatic constructions of parameters to be observed by judicial interference. Regarding the methodology, this research has an investigative and descriptive caracter and an theoretical approach based on bibliographical data collection (judicial and doutrine decisions) that received qualitative treatment and dialectical approach. As a result, it is known that the judicial decision that determines the supply of medicines to those individuals who can not afford them with their own resources is legitimate and complies with the democratic principle, not violating the principle of separation of powers and the reserve of the possible, since the judicial decison is not stripped with an uniform and reasonable criteria, failing to contain high burden of subjectivism and witch signifies a possible exacerbation of functions by the judiciary, suffering, in this case, of requirement of legal certainty. It is concluded that the Court decision that determines the government the providing of medicine to those who can not afford the cost of treatment should be based on parameters such as: the protection of human dignity and the minimum existencial principle, the inafastable jurisdiction principle; compliance critique of the possible reserve principle; subsidiarity of judicial intervention; proportionality (quantitative and qualitative) in the content of the decision; the questioning about the reasons for non-delivery of the drug through administrative via; and, finally, the attention not to turn the judiciary into a mere production factor of the pharmaceutical industry, contributing to the cartelization of the right to health

Terceiro setor em HIV/AIDS: mapeando o ativismo social na contemporaneidade

The struggle against AIDS is a kind of action in favor of life and the organized Brazilian civil society incorporated it in a meaningful dimension. This struggle matured the creation of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and advanced with the discoveries about the disease. Since the very early 90 s, the consolidation of the partnership involving the movement anti-aids with State came up with a dilemma for the entities of civil society: are they just executors of governmental policies or do they take up the role of effective demands concerning public policies? Since then, activism against aids started to stand for execution of projects and one considers that the institutional way of anti-aids work has problems because it constructs a basic strategy to take off the political aspect of the third sector. The NGOs/aids consolidate the reconfiguration of capital and get far from street activities. This is important to be studied because the relationship between society and aids, contemporarily, can prevent them from accomplishing their agenda referring to political mobilization and collective resistance. This research started to be carried after some visits, previously arranged, to an institutional life support group called Grupo de Apoio à Vida-GAV, in Campina Grande. A semi-structured interview was applied to 31 users and to 6 technicians of the entity mentioned. One aimed at investigating the activist anti-aids practice, identifying the conceptions of activism and knowing how social actors assess those practices. Preliminary results indicate that one of the conceptions on activism among the interviewees refers to the execution of projects through partnership of NGOs and supporting institutions, governmental or non-governmental. Although this new conception on activism consolidates a non-political aspect, there are other ways of executing projects and participating actively, according to some users, such as: meetings, lectures and other sorts of events promoted by the group, which are also legitimate actions representing anti-aids activism at the present context

Sociedade civil, entre o político-estatal e o universo gerencial

Cet article est fondé sur le concept de société civile développé par le marxiste Antonio Gramsci et propose un dialogue critique avec les autres idées de la société civile qui, de nos jours, cherchent à s'affirmer dans le panorama politique et culturel. Nous nous fondons sur le fait d'être passé, au cours des dernières décennies, d'une idée de société civile prioritairement politique-publique, scène de luttes démocratiques et de nouvelles hégémonies, vers une image qui transforme la société civile soit en ressource de gestion ­ un arrangement de la société destiné à rendre possible différents genres spécifiques de politiques publiques ­ soit en un facteur de reconstruction étique et dialogique de la vie sociale. L'incorporation de l'idée de participation au langage de planification a déplacé la société civile de son champs principal (celui de l'organisation de nouvelles hégémonies) vers un espace de coopération et de gestion de la crise. Par ailleurs, l'expansion de l'activisme social, dans un cadre de crise politique de l'État et de la démocratie représentative a poussé vers la recherche d'une autre «place» à partir de laquelle il serait possible d'établir et de répandre de nouvelles postulations éthiques et de nouvelles procédures collectives. D'une phase où le marxisme était prépondérant et laissait sa marque, nous sommes entrés dans une phase dans laquelle la perspective libérale, affirmée de façon orthodoxe ou nuancée, prévaut et opère comme principale référence.

e-Government architectures, technical and political situation in Latin America

Includes bibliography

The political economy of HIV

Includes bibliography

The political economy of natural gas in Trinidad and Tobago

Includes bibliography

The political economy of Mexico's dollarization debate

Includes bibliography

Development cycles, political regimes and international migration: Argentina in the 20th century

Includes bibliography