Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Palaeoecology of the Mount Etna bat fauna, coastal Eastern Queensland

Global warming is already threatening many animal and plant communities worldwide, however, the effect of climate change on bat populations is poorly known. Understanding the factors influencing the survival of bats is crucial to their conservation, and this cannot be achieved solely by modern ecological studies. Palaeoecological investigations provide a perspective over a much longer temporal scale, allowing the understanding of the dynamic patterns that shaped the distribution of modern taxa. In this study twelve microchiropteran fossil assemblages from Mount Etna, central-eastern Queensland, ranging in age from more than 500,000 years to the present day, were investigated. The aim was to assess the responses of insectivorous bats to Quaternary environmental changes, including climatic fluctuations and recent anthropogenic impacts. In particular, this investigation focussed on the effects of increasing late Pleistocene aridity, the subsequent retraction of rainforest habitat, and the impact of cave mining following European settlement at Mount Etna. A thorough examination of the dental morphology of all available extant Australian bat taxa was conducted in order to identify the fossil taxa prior to their analysis in term of species richness and composition. This detailed odontological work provided new diagnostic dental characters for eighteen species and one genus. It also provided additional useful dental characters for three species and seven genera. This odontological analysis allowed the identification of fifteen fossil bat taxa from the Mount Etna deposits, all being representatives of extant bats, and included ten taxa identified to the species level (i.e., Macroderma gigas, Hipposideros semoni, Rhinolophus megaphyllus, Miniopterus schreibersii, Miniopterus australis, Scoteanax rueppellii, Chalinolobus gouldii, Chalinolobus dwyeri, Chalinolobus nigrogriseus and Vespadelus troughtoni) and five taxa identified to the generic level (i.e., Mormopterus, Taphozous, Nyctophilus, Scotorepens and Vespadelus). Palaeoecological analysis of the fossil taxa revealed that, unlike the non-volant mammal taxa, bats have remained essentially stable in terms of species diversity and community membership between the mid-Pleistocene rainforest habitat and the mesic habitat that occurs today in the region. The single major exception is Hipposideros semoni, which went locally extinct at Mount Etna. Additionally, while intensive mining operations resulted in the abandonment of at least one cave that served as a maternity roost in the recent past, the diversity of the Mount Etna bat fauna has not declined since European colonisation. The overall resilience through time of the bat species discussed herein is perhaps due to their unique ecological, behavioural, and physiological characteristics as well as their ability to fly, which have allowed them to successfully adapt to their changing environment. This study highlights the importance of palaeoecological analyses as a tool to gain an understanding of how bats have responded to environmental change in the past and provides valuable information for the conservation of threatened modern species, such as H. semoni.

Evolutionary biology of Gondwanan non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The potential restriction to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation can apply to multiple levels of evolutionary scale; from the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents driving diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses, to the isolation of proximate populations as a result of their inability to cross intervening unsuitable habitat. Investigating the role of habitat fragmentation in driving diversity within and among taxa can thus include inferences of phylogenetic relationships among taxa, assessments of intraspecific phylogeographic structure and analyses of gene flow among neighbouring populations. The proposed Gondwanan clade within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae) represents a model system for investigating the role that population fragmentation and isolation has played at different evolutionary scales. A pilot study by Krosch et al (2009) indentified several highly divergent lineages restricted to ancient rainforest refugia and limited gene flow among proximate sites within a refuge for one member of this clade, Echinocladius martini Cranston. This study provided a framework for investigating the evolutionary history of this taxon and its relatives more thoroughly. Populations of E. martini were sampled in the Paluma bioregion of northeast Queensland to investigate patterns of fine-scale within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a refuge more rigorously. Data was incorporated from Krosch et al (2009) and additional sites were sampled up- and downstream of the original sites. Analyses of genetic structure revealed strong natal site fidelity and high genetic structure among geographically proximate streams. Little evidence was found for regular headwater exchange among upstream sites, but there was distinct evidence for rare adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, the distribution of shared haplotypes implied that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to the natal stream channel. Patterns of regional phylogeographic structure were examined in two related austral orthoclad taxa – Naonella forsythi Boothroyd from New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Sæther and Andersen from southern South America – to provide a comparison with patterns revealed in their close relative E. martini. Both taxa inhabit tectonically active areas of the southern hemisphere that have also experienced several glaciation events throughout the Plio-Pleistocene that are thought to have affected population structure dramatically in many taxa. Four highly divergent lineages estimated to have diverged since the late Miocene were revealed in each taxon, mirroring patterns in E. martini; however, there was no evidence for local geographical endemism, implying substantial range expansion post-diversification. The differences in pattern evident among the three related taxa were suggested to have been influenced by variation in the responses of closed forest habitat to climatic fluctuations during interglacial periods across the three landmasses. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved at a continental scale by expanding upon the sampling design of Krosch et al (2009) to encompass populations in southeast Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure were consistent with expectations and several previously unrecognised lineages were revealed from central- and southern Australia that were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with the timing of Plio-Pleistocene rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow of E. martini among isolated refugia was highly restricted and that this taxon was susceptible to the impacts of habitat change. Broader phylogenetic relationships among taxa considered to be members of this Gondwanan orthoclad group were resolved in order to test expected patterns of evolutionary affinities across the austral continents. The inferred phylogeny and estimated divergence times did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent and implied instead several transoceanic dispersal events post-vicariance. Difficulties in appropriate taxonomic sampling and accurate calibration of molecular phylogenies notwithstanding, the sampling regime implemented in the current study has been the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly has revealed both novel taxa and phylogenetic relationships within and among described genera. Several novel associations between life stages are made here for both described and previously unknown taxa. Investigating evolutionary relationships within and among members of this clade of proposed Gondwanan orthoclad taxa has demonstrated that a complex interaction between historical population fragmentation and dispersal at several levels of evolutionary scale has been important in driving diversification in this group. While interruptions to migration, colonisation and gene flow driven by population fragmentation have clearly contributed to the development and maintenance of much of the diversity present in this group, long-distance dispersal has also played a role in influencing diversification of continental biotas and facilitating gene flow among disjunct populations.

Keeping House : a novel and novel companion

The creative work of this study is a novel-length work of literary fiction called Keeping House (published as Grace's Table, by University of Queensland Press, April 2014). Grace has not had twelve people at her table for a long time. Hers isn't the kind of family who share regular Sunday meals. As Grace prepares the feast, she reflects on her life, her marriage and her friendships. When the three generations of her family come together, simmering tensions from the past threaten to boil over. The one thing that no one can talk about is the one thing that no one can forget. Grace's Table is a moving and often funny novel using food as a language to explore the power of memory and the family rituals that define us. The exegetical component of this study does not adhere to traditional research pedagogies. Instead, it follows the model of what the literature describes as fictocriticism. It is the intention that the exegesis be read as a hybrid genre; one that combines creative practice and theory and blurs the boundaries between philosophy and fiction. In offering itself as an alternative to the exegetical canon it provides a model for the multiplicity of knowledge production suited to the discipline of practice-led research. The exegesis mirrors structural elements of the creative work by inviting twelve guests into the domestic space of the novel to share a meal. The guests, chosen for their diverse thinking, enable examination of the various agents of power involved in the delivery of food. Their ideas cross genders, ages and time periods; their motivations and opinions often collide. Some are more concerned with the spatial politics of where food is consumed, others with its actual preparation and consumption. Each, however, provides a series of creative reflective conversations throughout the meal which help to answer the research question: How can disempowered women take authority within their domestic space? Michel de Certeau must defend his "operational tactics" or "art of the weak" 1 as a means by which women can subvert the colonisation of their domestic space against Michel Foucault's ideas about the functions of a "disciplinary apparatus". 2 Erving Goffman argues that the success of de Certeau's "tactics" depends upon his theories of "performance" and "masquerade" 3; a claim de Certeau refutes. Doreen Massey and the author combine forces in arguing for space, time and politics to be seen as interconnected, non-static and often contested. The author calls for identity, or sense of self, to be considered a further dimension which impacts on the function of spatial models. Yu-Fi Tuan speaks of the intimacy of kitchens; Gaston Bachelard the power of daydreams; and Jean Anthelme Brillat-Savarin gives the reader a taste of the nourishing arts. Roland Barthes forces the author to reconsider her function as a writer and her understanding of the reader's relationship with a text. Fictional characters from two texts have a place at the table – Marian from The Edible Woman by Margaret Atwood 4 and Lilian from Lilian's Story by Kate Grenville. 5 Each explores how they successfully subverted expectations of their gender. The author interprets and applies elements of the conversations to support Grace's tactics in the novel as well as those related to her own creative research practice. Grace serves her guests, reflecting on what is said and how it relates to her story. Over coffee, the two come together to examine what each has learned.

Space : Irrealis objects and their role in a new political economy

In this paper, I show how new spaces are being prefigured for colonisation in the language of contemporary technology policy. Drawing on a corpus of 1.3 million words collected from technology policy centres throughout the world, I show the role of policy language in creating the foundations of an emergent form of political economy. The analysis is informed by principles from critical discourse analysis (CDA) and classical political economy. It foregrounds a functional aspect of language called process metaphor to show how aspects of human activity are prefigured for mass commodification by the manipulation of irrealis spaces. I also show how the fundamental element of any new political economy, the property element, is being largely ignored. The potential creation of a global space as concrete as landed property – electromagnetic spectrum – has significant ramifications for the future of social relations in any global “knowledge economy”.

Offending Youth : Crime, Sex and Justice

Rates of female delinquency, especially for violent crimes, are increasing in most common law countries. At the same time the growth in cyber-bullying, especially among girls, appears to be a related global phenomenon. While the gender gap in delinquency is narrowing in Australia, United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, boys continue to dominate the youth who commit crime and have a virtual monopoly over sexually violent crimes. Indigenous youth continue to be vastly over-represented in the juvenile justice system in every Australian jurisdiction. The Indigenisation of delinquency is a persistent problem in other countries such as Canada and New Zealand. Young people who gather in public places are susceptible to being perceived as somehow threatening or riotous, attracting more than their share of public order policing. Professional football has been marred by repeated scandals involving sexual assault, violence and drunkenness. Given the cultural significance of footballers as role models to thousands, if not millions, of young men around the world, it is vitally important to address this problem. Offending Youth explores these key contemporary patterns of delinquency, the response to these by the juvenile justice agencies and moreover what can be done to address these problems. The book also analyses the major policy and legislative changes from the nineteenth to twenty first centuries, chiefly the shift the penal welfarism to diversion and restorative justice. Using original cases studied by Carrington twenty years ago, Offending Youth illustrates how penal welfarism criminalised young people from socially marginal backgrounds, especially Aboriginal children, children from single parent families, family-less children, state wards and young people living in poverty or in housing commission estates. A number of inquiries in Australia and the United Kingdom have since established that children committed to these institutions, supposedly for their own good, experienced systemic physical, sexual and psychological abuse during their institutionalisation. The book is dedicated to the survivors of these institutions who only now are receiving official recognition of the injustices they suffered. The underlying philosophy of juvenile justice has fundamentally shifted away from penal welfarism to embrace positive policy responses to juvenile crime, such as youth conferencing, cautions, warnings, restorative justice, circle sentencing and diversion examined in the concluding chapter. Offending Youth is aimed at a broad readership including policy makers, juvenile justice professionals, youth workers, families, teachers, politicians as well as students and academics in criminology, policing, gender studies, masculinity studies, Indigenous studies, justice studies, youth studies and the sociology of youth and deviance more generally.-- [from publisher website]

Predicting wave glider speed from environmental measurements

In the ocean science community, researchers have begun employing novel sensor platforms as integral pieces in oceanographic data collection, which have significantly advanced the study and prediction of complex and dynamic ocean phenomena. These innovative tools are able to provide scientists with data at unprecedented spatiotemporal resolutions. This paper focuses on the newly developed Wave Glider platform from Liquid Robotics. This vehicle produces forward motion by harvesting abundant natural energy from ocean waves, and provides a persistent ocean presence for detailed ocean observation. This study is targeted at determining a kinematic model for offline planning that provides an accurate estimation of the vehicle speed for a desired heading and set of environmental parameters. Given the significant wave height, ocean surface and subsurface currents, wind speed and direction, we present the formulation of a system identification to provide the vehicle’s speed over a range of possible directions.

Frequent activating FGFR2 mutations in endometrial carcinomas parallel germline mutations associated with craniosynostosis and skeletal dysplasia syndromes

Endometrial carcinoma is the most common gynecological malignancy in the United States. Although most women present with early disease confined to the uterus, the majority of persistent or recurrent tumors are refractory to current chemotherapies. We have identified a total of 11 different FGFR2 mutations in 3/10 (30%) of endometrial cell lines and 19/187 (10%) of primary uterine tumors. Mutations were seen primarily in tumors of the endometrioid histologic subtype (18/115 cases investigated, 16%). The majority of the somatic mutations identified were identical to germline activating mutations in FGFR2 and FGFR3 that cause Apert Syndrome, Beare-Stevenson Syndrome, hypochondroplasia, achondroplasia and SADDAN syndrome. The two most common somatic mutations identified were S252W (in eight tumors) and N550K (in five samples). Four novel mutations were identified, three of which are also likely to result in receptor gain-of-function. Extensive functional analyses have already been performed on many of these mutations, demonstrating they result in receptor activation through a variety of mechanisms. The discovery of activating FGFR2 mutations in endometrial carcinoma raises the possibility of employing anti-FGFR molecularly targeted therapies in patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial carcinoma.

Parental responsibility and Australian legislative attempts to curb truancy

Statistical and anecdotal evidence suggests that truancy is a significant problem for Australian schools. This paper considers the efficacy of legislative attempts to curb truancy, focussing in particular on the Queensland experience. Both Queensland legislation and the Commonwealth Improving School Enrolment and Attendance Through Welfare reform Measure (SEAM) pilot program are explained and evaluated. The paper considers in particular the utility of parental responsibility strategies as a response to truancy - under the Education (General Provisions) Act 12006 (Queensland) parents of persistent truants may be prosecuted and fined; under the SEAM initiative parents may have their social security payments suspended. Despite the availability of these seemingly draconian penalties, there is a reluctance, in practice, to hold parents accountable. The paper attempts to explain this reluctance and asks whether parental responsibility legislation can deliver a solution to truancy.

Velocity-jump models with crowding effects

Velocity jump processes are discrete random walk models that have many applications including the study of biological and ecological collective motion. In particular, velocity jump models are often used to represent a type of persistent motion, known as a “run and tumble”, which is exhibited by some isolated bacteria cells. All previous velocity jump processes are non-interacting, which means that crowding effects and agent-to-agent interactions are neglected. By neglecting these agent-to-agent interactions, traditional velocity jump models are only applicable to very dilute systems. Our work is motivated by the fact that many applications in cell biology, such as wound healing, cancer invasion and development, often involve tissues that are densely packed with cells where cell-to-cell contact and crowding effects can be important. To describe these kinds of high cell density problems using a velocity jump process we introduce three different classes of crowding interactions into a one-dimensional model. Simulation data and averaging arguments lead to a suite of continuum descriptions of the interacting velocity jump processes. We show that the resulting systems of hyperbolic partial differential equations predict the mean behavior of the stochastic simulations very well.

Sky high and back again : the evolution of simulation-based design from aerospace to construction

Emerging from the challenge to reduce energy consumption in buildings is a need for research and development into the more effective use of simulation as a decision-support tool. Despite significant research, persistent limitations in process and software inhibit the integration of energy simulation in early architectural design. This paper presents a green star case study to highlight the obstacles commonly encountered with current integration strategies. It then examines simulation-based design in the aerospace industry, which has overcome similar limitations. Finally, it proposes a design system based on this contrasting approach, coupling parametric modelling and energy simulation software for rapid and iterative performance assessment of early design options.

The oral health of critically ill children : an observational cohort study

Aims and objectives: This study will describe the oral health status of critically ill children over time spent in the paediatric intensive care unit, examine influences on the development of poor oral health and explore the relationship between dysfunctional oral health and healthcare-associated infections. Background: The treatment modalities used to support children experiencing critical illness and the progression of critical illness may result in dysfunction in the oral cavity. In adults, oral health has been shown to worsen during critical illness as well as influence systemic health. Design: A prospective observational cohort design was used. Method: The study was undertaken at a single tertiary-referral Paediatric Intensive Care Unit. Oral health status was measured using the Oral Assessment Scale and culturing oropharyngeal flora. Information was also collected surrounding the use of supportive therapies, clinical characteristics of the children and the occurrence of healthcare-associated infections. Results: Of the 46 participants, 63% (n = 32) had oral dysfunction and 41% (n = 19) demonstrated pathogenic oropharyngeal colonisation during their critical illness. The potential systemic pathogens isolated from the oropharynx and included Candida sp., Staphylococcus aureus, Haemophilus influenzae, Enterococcus sp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The severity of critical illness had a significant positive relationship (p < 0·05) with pathogenic and absent colonisation of the oropharynx. Sixty-three percent of healthcare-associated infections involved the preceding or simultaneous colonisation of the oropharynx by the causative pathogen. Conclusions: This study suggests paediatric oral health to be frequently dysfunctional and the oropharynx to repeatedly harbour potential systemic pathogens during childhood critical illness. Relevance to clinical practice: Given the frequency of poor oral health during childhood critical illness in this study and the subsequent potential systemic consequences, evidence based oral hygiene practices should be developed and validated to guide clinicians when nursing critically ill children.

The politicization of youth crime in Scotland and the rise of the 'Burberry Court'

In 2003, the youth justice system in Scotland entered a new phase with the introduction of a pilot youth court. The processing of persistent 16 and 17 year old (and serious 15 year olds) represented a stark deviation from a ‘child centred’ and needs-oriented state apparatus for dealing with young offenders to one based on deeds and individual responsibility. This article, based on an evaluation funded by the Scottish Executive, is the first to provide a critical appraisal of this youth justice reform. It examines the views of the judiciary and young offenders and reveals that the pilot youth court in Scotland represents a punitive excursion that poses serious concerns for due process, human rights and net widening.

Searching for salvation: An analysis of US religious searching on the World Wide Web

The goals of this research were to answer three questions. How predominant is religious searching online? How do people interact with Web search engines when searching for religious information? How effective are these interactions in locating relevant information? Specifically, referring to a US demographic, we analyzed five data sets from Web search engine, collected between 1997 and 2005, of over a million queries each in order to investigate religious searching on the Web. Results point to four key findings. First, there is no evidence of a decrease in religious Web-searching behaviors. Religious interest is a persistent topic of Web searching. Second, those seeking religious information on the Web are becoming slightly more interactive in their searching. Third, there is no evidence for a move away from mainstream religions toward non-mainstream religions since the majority of the search terms are associated with established religions. Fourth, our work does not support the hypothesis that traditional religious affiliation is associated with lower adoption of or sophistication with technology. These factors point to the Web as a potentially usefully communication medium for a variety of religious organizations. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.