More than just Good Luck. How to Explain the Success of Monte Carlo Simulations

Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful method in many natural and social sciences. But what sort of method is it? And where does its power come from? Are Monte Carlo simulations experiments, theories or something else? The aim of this talk is to answer these questions and to explain the power of Monte Carlo simulations. I provide a classification of Monte Carlo techniques and defend the claim that Monte Carlo simulation is a sort of inference.

Does the educational success of children growing up in stepfamilies differ from children growing up in single parent households?

Within the framework of research into educational inequality, this paper focuses on the educational success of children who experience parental separation prior to the transition from primary into secondary education. Related to this, the first education passage following primary school is observed. The question arises as to whether children growing up in single parent households after parental separation and whether children in this category who in addition experienced the formation of a stepfamily differ from one another and from children growing up in “nuclear families” in regard to their scholastic performance and transition success. For that reason, not only scholastic performance (grades) but also the type of school attended following primary school are of particular interest. Furthermore, differences regarding parental educational decision-making are examined (vgl. Stocké 2007). The analyses are based on data from the longitudinal study "BIKS 8-14" (educational processes, competence development and selection decisions in preschool- and school age) that has been undertaken at the Otto Friedrich University in Bamberg.

Hybridization increases invasive knotweed success

Hybridization is one of the fundamental mechanisms by which rapid evolution can occur in exotic species. If hybrids show increased vigour, this could significantly contribute to invasion success. Here, we compared the success of the two invasive knotweeds, Fallopia japonica and F.sachalinensis, and their hybrid, F.x bohemica, in competing against experimental communities of native plants. Using plant material from multiple clones of each taxon collected across a latitudinal gradient in Central Europe, we found that knotweed hybrids performed significantly better in competition with a native community and that they more strongly reduced the growth of the native plants. One of the parental species, F.sachalinensis, regenerated significantly less well from rhizomes, and this difference disappeared if activated carbon was added to the substrate, which suggests allelopathic inhibition of F.sachalinensis regeneration by native plants. We found substantial within-taxon variation in competitive success in all knotweed taxa, but variation was generally greatest in the hybrid. Interestingly, there was also significant variation within the genetically uniform F.japonica, possibly reflecting epigenetic differences. Our study shows that invasive knotweed hybrids are indeed more competitive than their parents and that hybridization increased the invasiveness of the exotic knotweed complex.

Motivational patterns as an instrument for predicting success in promising young football players

Psychological characteristics are crucial to identifying talents, which is why these are being incorporated in today’s multidimensional talent models. In addition to multidimensionality, talent studies are increasingly drawing on holistic theories of development, leading to the use of person-oriented approaches. The present study adopts such an approach by looking at the influence that motivational characteristics have on the development of performance, in a person-oriented way. For this purpose, it looks at how the constructs achievement motive, achievement goal orientation and self-determination interact with one another, what patterns they form and how these patterns are linked to subsequent sports success. 97 top young football players were questioned twice. Another year later, it was enquired which of these players had been selected for the U15 national team. At both measuring points, four patterns were identified, which displayed a high degree of structural and individual stability. As expected, the highly intrinsically achievement-oriented players were significantly more likely to move up into the U15 national team. The results point to the importance of favourable patterns of motivational variables in the form of specific types, for medium-term performance development among promising football talents, and thus provide valuable clues for the selection and promotion of those.

Gender in Theology and Religion: a Success Story?! Report from a Conference

In January 2011 some fifty scholars from different parts of Europe met in Groningen, the Netherlands for an expert meeting entitled Gender in theology and religion: a success story?! to analyze the factors that contribute to the successful mainstreaming of gender in a theological discipline and to reflect on the future of gender studies in theology and religious studies. Different speakers highlighted the many successes of gender studies in theology and religious studies: its power to 'trouble' the disciplines and their heuristic categories; its contribution to the development of other disciplines such as queer studies and postcolonial studies; the many PhD studies produced; the number of significant publications that had appeared over the last years. All indicate that gender studies in theology and religious studies have matured. But the participants also pointed towards the ambiguity of the success of gender studies in the academy: the indeterminacy of the institutional position and positions of gender studies in the theological disciplines in seminaries, departments faculties and universities; the lack of male scholars’ engagement in gender studies, which is expressed by their absence in these studies and/or the low reception of gender studies publications in their disciplines. Both ambiguities represent a danger for the future of gender studies, according to the participants in the meeting. In order to further the success of gender in theology and religion they formulated the following recommendations: to analyze the position of these studies in their institutions from the perspective of the implied audience (church, academy, ordinary theologians); engage men in gender studies; embrace the cultural turn in religious studies; develop interdisciplinary cooperations with gender studies in the humanities; engage creatively with the changing role of religion in contemporary society; analyze whose perspective one follows and authorizes in the perception of theology, religious studies and gender studies themselves; record the history of women’s and gender studies in theology and religion, and honor and celebrate the successes.

Thrombus imaging in acute stroke: correlation of thrombus length on susceptibility-weighted imaging with endovascular reperfusion success

OBJECTIVES Susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) enables visualization of thrombotic material in acute ischemic stroke. We aimed to validate the accuracy of thrombus depiction on SWI compared to time-of-flight MRA (TOF-MRA), first-pass gadolinium-enhanced MRA (GE-MRA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Furthermore, we analysed the impact of thrombus length on reperfusion success with endovascular therapy. METHODS Consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke due to middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusions undergoing endovascular recanalization were screened. Only patients with a pretreatment SWI were included. Thrombus visibility and location on SWI were compared to those on TOF-MRA, GE-MRA and DSA. The association between thrombus length on SWI and reperfusion success was studied. RESULTS Eighty-four of the 88 patients included (95.5 %) showed an MCA thrombus on SWI. Strong correlations between thrombus location on SWI and that on TOF-MRA (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.918, P < 0.001), GE-MRA (0.887, P < 0.001) and DSA (0.841, P < 0.001) were observed. Successful reperfusion was not significantly related to thrombus length on SWI (P = 0.153; binary logistic regression). CONCLUSIONS In MCA occlusion thrombus location as seen on SWI correlates well with angiographic findings. In contrast to intravenous thrombolysis, thrombus length appears to have no impact on reperfusion success of endovascular therapy. KEY POINTS • SWI helps in assessing location and length of thrombi in the MCA • SWI, MRA and DSA are equivalent in detecting the MCA occlusion site • SWI is superior in identifying the distal end of the thrombus • Stent retrievers should be deployed over the distal thrombus end • Thrombus length did not affect success of endovascular reperfusion guided by SWI.

Success in Offshoring of Application Development – Does Culture Matter?

Recently, offshoring of information systems (IS) services to external vendors has seen considerable growth. Outsourcing to vendors in foreign countries brings about unique challenges which need to be understood and managed effectively. This paper explores cultural differences in IS offshoring arrangements involving German client organizations that outsource application development activities to Indian vendors. For this purpose, a research framework is developed based on both theoretical considerations and specific empirical observations from multiple case studies. The goal is to (1) explore the nature of cultural differences in offshoring arrangements in depth and to (2) analyze the relationship between those cultural differences and offshoring success. Based on the case findings, implications and practices for the management of offshore development projects are outlined.

Positive effect of the yellow morph on female reproductive success in the flower colour polymorphic Iris lutescens (Iridaceae), a deceptive species

The deceptive Iris lutescens (Iridaceae) shows a heritable and striking flower colour polymorphism, with both yellow- and purple-flowered individuals growing sympatrically. Deceptive species with flower colour polymorphism are mainly described in the family Orchidaceae and rarely found in other families. To explain the maintenance of flower colour polymorphism in I.lutescens, we investigated female reproductive success in natural populations of southern France, at both population and local scales (within populations). Female reproductive success was positively correlated with yellow morph frequency, at both the population scale and the local scale. Therefore, we failed to observe negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS), a mechanism commonly invoked to explain flower colour polymorphism in deceptive plant species. Flower size and local flower density could also affect female reproductive success in natural populations. Pollinator behaviour could explain the positive effect of the yellow morph, and our results suggest that flower colour polymorphism might not persist in I.lutescens, but alternative explanations not linked to pollinator behaviour are discussed. In particular, NFDS, although an appealingly simple explanation previously demonstrated in orchids, may not always contribute to maintaining flower colour polymorphism, even in deceptive species.

Success rate of paramedian palatal implants in adolescent and adult orthodontic patients: a retrospective cohort study.

The purpose of this study was to examine the success rate of paramedian palatal Orthosystem first- and second-generation implants used for anchorage in orthodontic treatment in patients treated by one experienced orthodontist. The records of 143 patients (90 female, 53 male, median age: 15.7 years, range: 10.2-50.9) receiving 145 palatal implants of the first or second generation (Orthosystem, Straumann AG, Basel, Switzerland) were examined. All the palatal implants were placed in a paramedian palatal location by three experienced surgeons. Stable implants were orthodontically loaded after a healing period of 3 months. Out of the 145 inserted paramedian palatal implants only seven implants (4.8%) were not considered stable after insertion. All the successfully osseointegrated implants remained stable during orthodontic treatment. Paramedian palatal implants are highly reliable and effective devices to obtain skeletal anchorage for orthodontic treatment. This study has shown that the paramedian location is a good alternative to the median location.