Homicide and impunity: an ecological analysis at state level in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of fractional systems

This paper investigates the use of multidimensional scaling in the evaluation of fractional system. Several algorithms are analysed based on the time response of the closed loop system under the action of a reference step input signal. Two alternative performance indices, based on the time and frequency domains, are tested. The numerical experiments demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed visualization method.

Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime

The contribution of the evapotranspiration from a certain region to the precipitation over the same area is referred to as water recycling. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal links between the recycling mechanism and the Iberian rainfall regime. We use a 9 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of 18 years (1990-2007) to compute local and regional recycling ratios over Iberia, at the monthly scale, through both an analytical and a numerical recycling model. In contrast to coastal areas, the interior of Iberia experiences a relative maximum of precipitation in spring, suggesting a prominent role of land-atmosphere interactions on the inland precipitation regime during this period of the year. Local recycling ratios are the highest in spring and early summer, coinciding with those areas where this spring peak of rainfall represents the absolute maximum in the annual cycle. This confirms that recycling processes are crucial to explain the Iberian spring precipitation, particularly over the eastern and northeastern sectors. Average monthly recycling values range from 0.04 in December to 0.14 in June according to the numerical model and from 0.03 in December to 0.07 in May according to the analytical procedure. Our analysis shows that the highest values of recycling are limited by the coexistence of two necessary mechanisms: (1) the availability of sufficient soil moisture and (2) the occurrence of appropriate synoptic configurations favoring the development of convective regimes. The analyzed surplus of rainfall in spring has a critical impact on agriculture over large semiarid regions of the interior of Iberia.

Repeater vs. Bridge-based hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS networks: a comparative performance analysis

In the last years, several solutions have been proposed to extend PROFIBUS in order to support wired and wireless network stations in the same network. In this paper we compare two of those solutions, one in which the interconnection between wired and wireless stations is made by repeaters and another in which the interconnection is made by bridges. The comparison is both qualitative and numerical, based on simulation models of both architectures.

Numerical and experimental analyses of biocomposites reinforced with natural fibres

n the last decades the biocomposites have been widely used in the construction, automobile and aerospace industries. Not only the interface transition zone (ITZ) but also the heterogeneity of natural fibres affects the mechanical behaviour of these composites. This work focuses on the numerical and experimental analyses of a polymeric composite fabricated with epoxy resin and unidirectional sisal and banana fibres. A three-dimensional model was set to analyze the composites using the elastic properties of the individual phases. In addition, a two-dimensional model was set taking into account the effective composite properties obtained by micromechanical models. A tensile testing was performed to validate the numerical analyses and evaluating the interface condition of the constitutive phases.

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

Numerical and experimental study of tensile strength of single and double-strap repairs

Adhesive bonding as a joining or repair method has a wide application in many industries. Repairs with bonded patches are often carried out to re-establish the stiffness at critical regions or spots of corrosion and/or fatigue cracks. Single and double-strap repairs (SS and DS, respectively) are a viable option for repairing. For the SS repairs, a patch is adhesively-bonded on one of the structure faces. SS repairs are easy to execute, but the load eccentricity leads to peel peak stresses at the overlap edges. DS repairs involve the use of two patches, one on each face of the structure. These are more efficient than SS repairs, due to the doubling of the bonding area and suppression of the transverse deflection of the adherends. Shear stresses also become more uniform as a result of smaller differential straining. The experimental and Finite Element (FE) study presented here for strength prediction and design optimization of bonded repairs includes SS and DS solutions with different values of overlap length (LO). The examined values of LO include 10, 20 and 30 mm. The failure strengths of the SS and DS repairs were compared with FE results by using the Abaqus® FE software. A Cohesive Zone Model (CZM) with a triangular shape in pure tensile and shear modes, including the mixed-mode possibility for crack growth, was used to simulate fracture of the adhesive layer. A good agreement was found between the experiments and the FE simulations on the failure modes, elastic stiffness and strength of the repairs, showing the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed FE technique in predicting strength of bonded repairs. Furthermore, some optimization principles were proposed to repair structures with adhesively-bonded patches that will allow repair designers to effectively design bonded repairs.

A simple approach to numerical modelling of propane combustion in fluidized beds

A mathematical model is proposed for the evolution of temperature, chemical composition, and energy release in bubbles, clouds, and emulsion phase during combustion of gaseous premixtures of air and propane in a bubbling fluidized bed. The analysis begins as the bubbles are formed at the orifices of the distributor, until they explode inside the bed or emerge at the free surface of the bed. The model also considers the freeboard region of the fluidized bed until the propane is thoroughly burned. It is essentially built upon the quasi-global mechanism of Hautman et al. (1981) and the mass and heat transfer equations from the two-phase model of Davidson and Harrison (1963). The focus is not on a new modeling approach, but on combining the classical models of the kinetics and other diffusional aspects to obtain a better insight into the events occurring inside a fluidized bed reactor. Experimental data are obtained to validate the model by testing the combustion of commercial propane, in a laboratory-scale fluidized bed, using four sand particle sizes: 400–500, 315–400, 250–315, and 200–250 µm. The mole fractions of CO2, CO, and O2 in the flue gases and the temperature of the fluidized bed are measured and compared with the numerical results.

Experimental and numerical evaluation of composite repairs on wood beams damaged by cross-graining

An experimental and Finite Element study was performed on the bending behaviour of wood beams of the Pinus Pinaster species repaired with adhesively-bonded carbon–epoxy patches, after sustaining damage by cross-grain failure. This damage is characterized by crack growth at a small angle to the beams longitudinal axis, due to misalignment between the wood fibres and the beam axis. Cross-grain failure can occur in large-scale in a wood member when trees that have grown spirally or with a pronounced taper are cut for lumber. Three patch lengths were tested. The simulations include the possibility of cohesive fracture of the adhesive layer, failure within the wood beam in two propagation planes and patch interlaminar failure, by the use of cohesive zone modelling. The respective cohesive properties were estimated either by an inverse method or from the literature. The comparison with the tests allowed the validation of the proposed methodology, opening a good perspective for the reduction of costs in the design stages of these repairs due to extensive experimentation.

Numerical evaluation of three-dimensional scarf repairs in carbon-epoxy structures

The widespread employment of carbon-epoxy laminates in high responsibility and severely loaded applications introduces an issue regarding their handling after damage. Repair of these structures should be evaluated, instead of their disposal, for cost saving and ecological purposes. Under this perspective, the availability of efficient repair methods is essential to restore the strength of the structure. The development and validation of accurate predictive tools for the repairs behaviour are also extremely important, allowing the reduction of costs and time associated to extensive test programmes. Comparing with strap repairs, scarf repairs have the advantages of a higher efficiency and the absence of aerodynamic disturbance. This work reports on a numerical study of the tensile behaviour of three-dimensional scarf repairs in carbon-epoxy structures, using a ductile adhesive (Araldite® 2015). The finite elements analysis was performed in ABAQUS® and Cohesive Zone Modelling was used for the simulation of damage onset and growth in the adhesive layer. Trapezoidal cohesive laws in each pure mode were used to account for the ductility of the specific adhesive mentioned. A parametric study was performed on the repair width and scarf angle. The use of over-laminating plies covering the repaired region at the outer or both repair surfaces was also tested as an attempt to increase the repairs efficiency. The obtained results allowed the proposal of design principles for repairing composite structures.

Analysis of the Van der Pol oscillator containing derivatives of fractional order

In this paper a modified version of the classical Van der Pol oscillator is proposed, introducing fractional-order time derivatives into the state-space model. The resulting fractional-order Van der Pol oscillator is analyzed in the time and frequency domains, using phase portraits, spectral analysis and bifurcation diagrams. The fractional-order dynamics is illustrated through numerical simulations of the proposed schemes using approximations to fractional-order operators. Finally, the analysis is extended to the forced Van der Pol oscillator.

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) applied to heat transfer optimization process of pultrusion die systems

The aim of this study is to optimize the heat flow through the pultrusion die assembly system on the manufacturing process of a specific glass-fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) pultrusion profile. The control of heat flow and its distribution through whole die assembly system is of vital importance in optimizing the actual GFRP pultrusion process. Through mathematical modeling of heating-die process, by means of Finite Element Analysis (FEA) program, an optimum heater selection, die position and temperature control was achieved. The thermal environment within the die was critically modeled relative not only to the applied heat sources, but also to the conductive and convective losses, as well as the thermal contribution arising from the exothermic reaction of resin matrix as it cures or polymerizes from the liquid to solid condition. Numerical simulation was validated with basis on thermographic measurements carried out on key points along the die during pultrusion process.

Numerical Method to Predict Void Formation during The Liquid Composite Molding Process

Void formation during the injection phase of the liquid composite molding process can be explained as a consequence of the non-uniformity of the flow front progression. This is due to the dual porosity within the fiber perform (spacing between the fiber tows is much larger than between the fibers within in a tow) and therefore the best explanation can be provided by a mesolevel analysis, where the characteristic dimension is given by the fiber tow diameter of the order of millimeters. In mesolevel analysis, liquid impregnation along two different scales; inside fiber tows and within the open spaces between the fiber tows must be considered and the coupling between the flow regimes must be addressed. In such cases, it is extremely important to account correctly for the surface tension effects, which can be modeled as capillary pressure applied at the flow front. Numerical implementation of such boundary conditions leads to illposing of the problem, in terms of the weak classical as well as stabilized formulation. As a consequence, there is an error in mass conservation accumulated especially along the free flow front. A numerical procedure was formulated and is implemented in an existing Free Boundary Program to reduce this error significantly.