A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Wide Dispersal and Possible Multiple Origins of Low-Copy-Number Plasmids in Rickettsia Species Associated with Blood-Feeding Arthropods

Plasmids are mobile genetic elements of bacteria that can impart important adaptive traits, such as increased virulence or antibiotic resistance. We report the existence of plasmids in Rickettsia (Rickettsiales; Rickettsiaceae) species, including Rickettsia akari, ""Candidatus Rickettsia amblyommii,"" R. bellii, R. rhipicephali, and REIS, the rickettsial endosymbiont of Ixodes scapularis. All of the rickettsiae were isolated from humans or North and South American ticks. R. parkeri isolates from both continents did not possess plasmids. We have now demonstrated plasmids in nearly all Rickettsia species that we have surveyed from three continents, which represent three of the four major proposed phylogenetic groups associated with blood-feeding arthropods. Gel-based evidence consistent with the existence of multiple plasmids in some species was confirmed by cloning plasmids with very different sequences from each of two ""Ca. Rickettsia amblyommii"" isolates. Phylogenetic analysis of rickettsial ParA plasmid partitioning proteins indicated multiple parA gene origins and plasmid incompatibility groups, consistent with possible multiple plasmid origins. Phylogenetic analysis of potentially host-adaptive rickettsial small heat shock proteins showed that hsp2 genes were plasmid specific and that hsp1 genes, found only on plasmids of ""Ca. Rickettsia amblyommii,"" R. felis, R. monacensis, and R. peacockii, were probably acquired independently of the hsp2 genes. Plasmid copy numbers in seven Rickettsia species ranged from 2.4 to 9.2 per chromosomal equivalent, as determined by real-time quantitative PCR. Plasmids may be of significance in rickettsial evolution and epidemiology by conferring genetic plasticity and host-adaptive traits via horizontal gene transfer that counteracts the reductive genome evolution typical of obligate intracellular bacteria.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Family size, economics and child gender preference: A case study in the Nyeri district of Kenya

Kenyan women have more children, especially in rural areas, than in most developing nations. This is widely believed to be an impediment to Kenya’s economic development. Thus, factors influencing family size in the Kenyan context are important for its future. A brief review of economic theories of fertility leads to the conclusion that both economics and social/cultural factors must be considered simultaneously when examining factors that determine the number of children in a family. The need to do this is borne out in Kenya’s situation by utilising responses from a random sample of rural households in the Nyeri district of Kenya. Economic and social/cultural factors intertwine to influence family sizes in this district. After providing a summary of the main statistical results from the survey, we use multiple regression analysis to explore the influences of a woman’s age, level of education, whether she has outside employment, whether the family keeps livestock, whether she expresses a preference for more boys than girls, whether the family uses only family labour (including child labour) and the size of the farm, which is used as a proxy for family income. It was found that preference for male children has an important positive influence on family size in this district. Women were found to have greater preference for male children than their male counterparts possibly because of their fear of being disinherited if they do not produce an heir for their husbands. Preference for sons was also found in allocation of human capital resources at the household level in that the female respondents were found to have lower levels of education than their male counterparts. Various long-term policies are outlined that may help to reduce the number of offspring of women in Kenya.

Crocodile farms and management of saltwater crocodiles in Northern Territory: Results of a survey of NT crocodile farmers plus analysis of secondary information

After outlining some relevant background information about the NT crocodile farming industry and explaining the purpose of our survey of NT crocodile farmers conducted in the first half of 2005, this paper reports the results of the survey. The information received from the survey is supplemented by secondary data and by information from secondary sources. This report covers the location of respondents; the size of crocodile farms; farmers’ stated knowledge of and attitudes towards the NT Crocodile Management Plan; the involvement of farms in the harvesting of crocodile eggs and the costs involved; views of crocodile farmers about whether the NT Crocodile Management Plan encourages landholders to conserve crocodiles and their perceptions of the benefits to landholders; predicted production trends and trends in the number of farms operating in NT; economic characteristics of crocodile farms producing in NT including the economic advantages and disadvantages of crocodile farming in NT. Concluding comments provide, amongst other things, an overview of the structure of the crocodile farming industry in the NT gleaned from a consideration of data available from the NT Government’s Department of Business, Industry and Resource Development.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.

The mu-way intersection problem for m-cycle systems

An m-cycle system of order upsilon is a partition of the edge-set of a complete graph of order upsilon into m-cycles. The mu -way intersection problem for m-cycle systems involves taking mu systems, based on the same vertex set, and determining the possible number of cycles which can be common to all mu systems. General results for arbitrary m are obtained, and detailed intersection values for (mu, m) = (3, 4), (4, 5),(4, 6), (4, 7), (8, 8), (8, 9). (For the case (mu, m)= (2, m), see Billington (J. Combin. Des. 1 (1993) 435); for the case (Cc,m)=(3,3), see Milici and Quattrochi (Ars Combin. A 24 (1987) 175. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Differential inclusions and robust control theory

Uncontrolled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax, where A is a non-empty compact set of matrices, and controlled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax + Bu are considered. Higher-order systems 0 is an element of Px - Du, where and are sets of differential polynomials, are also studied. It is shown that, under natural conditions commonly occurring in robust control theory, with some mild additional restrictions, asymptotic stability of differential inclusions is guaranteed. The main results are variants of small-gain theorems and the principal technique used is the Krasnosel'skii-Pokrovskii principle of absence of bounded solutions.

Should optional properties be used in conceptual modelling? A theory and three empirical tests

An important feature of some conceptual modelling grammars is the features they provide to allow database designers to show real-world things may or may not possess a particular attribute or relationship. In the entity-relationship model, for example, the fact that a thing may not possess an attribute can be represented by using a special symbol to indicate that the attribute is optional. Similarly, the fact that a thing may or may not be involved in a relationship can be represented by showing the minimum cardinality of the relationship as zero. Whether these practices should be followed, however, is a contentious issue. An alternative approach is to eliminate optional attributes and relationships from conceptual schema diagrams by using subtypes that have only mandatory attributes and relationships. In this paper, we first present a theory that led us to predict that optional attributes and relationships should be used in conceptual schema diagrams only when users of the diagrams require a surface-level understanding of the domain being represented by the diagrams. When users require a deep-level understanding, however, optional attributes and relationships should not be used because they undermine users' abilities to grasp important domain semantics. We describe three experiments which we then undertook to test our predictions. The results of the experiments support our predictions.