Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: 1951-2008

The aim of this study is to determine whether Brazil's economic growth has been constrained by the balance of payments in the long run. The question underpinning the analysis can be expressed as follows: Was economic growth in the period 1951-2008 constrained by the balance of payments? To answer this question, the study employs the externally constrained growth methodology developed by Lima and Carvalho (2009), among others. The main statistical method used is vector error correction. The conclusion is that the rate of economic growth in Brazil was restricted by the external sector in the period concerned, validating the theory of balance-of-payments growth constraint with regard to the economic history of Brazil.

A taxa de câmbio do Brasil é válida no longo prazo?

The objective of this study was to test the validity of the real exchange rate in the long run. For that five tests were performed based on equation, which relates to real exchange rate, international trade, domestic income. The main difference is that the tests when we are working with quarterly data, the parameters are significantly different from zero – i.e., the variables real exchange rate, international trade, domestic income and net exports on long term relationship – and, moreover, the signs are as expected. This implies that it is possible to increase exports with currency devaluation. Thus, based on data and tests that work we conclude that the exchange rate is an important instrument of trade policy, given that devaluations are valid even in the long term.

Metas de inflação no Brasil (1999-2012): uma análise institucional

The paper shows the advantages and handicaps of implementing an inflation target (IT) regime, from post-keynesian and institutional stances. It is post-keynesian as long as it does not perceive any benefit in the mainstream split between monetary and fiscal policies. And it is institutional insofar as it shows there are several ways of implementing a policy, such that the chosen one is determined by historical factors, as illustrated by the Brazilian case. Thus, one could even support IT policies if their targets were seen just as “focusing devices” guiding economic policies, but also regarding with due attention other targets, as, in the short run, output growth and employment and, in the long run, technology and human development. Therefore, an IT is not necessary, although it can be admitted, mainly if the target is hidden from the public, in order to increase the flexibility of the central bank.

Restrição externa e taxa de câmbio no Brasil: 1980-2008

The objective of this study is to examine if economic growth in Brazil was blocking due to external constraints, that is, in consequence of its Balance of Payments. We work with the approach first proposed by Thirlwall (1979) which was later modified by Lima and Carvalho (2009). We can conclude that economic growth was restricted by the external sector, which is consistent with the economic history of Brazil, and verify that the real exchange rate, and to influence the trade balance in the course run, also excerce some influence on this account balance of payments in the long run.

Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil: an institutional analysis

The paper shows the advantages and handicaps of implementing an inflation target (IT) regime, from a Post-Keynesian and, thus, an institutional stance. It is Post-Keynesian as long as it does not perceive any benefit in the mainstream split between monetary and fiscal policies. And it is institutional insofar as it assumes that there are several ways of implementing a policy, such that the chosen one is determined by historical factors, as it is illustrated by the Brazilian case. One could even support IT policies if their targets were seen just as “focusing devices” guiding economic policy, notwithstanding other targets, as, in the short run, output growth and employment and, in the long run, technology and human development. Nevertheless, an IT is not necessary, although it can be admitted, mainly if the target is hidden from the public, in order to increase the flexibility of the Central Bank.

A crença religiosa sob a perspectiva semiótica de Peirce

Current paper presents the relationships between beliefs, specifically religious ones, and the Peirce’s theory of interpretants. It is assumed that religious belief emphasizes the emotional aspect of faithful, preventing criticism and change of habit. According to the author, the nature of cognition is contrary to the determination of this kind of belief since it is based on the method and fallibility of hypotheses. It is not enough for the method to deduce its consequences but seeks the inductive verification of their results in the long run and through the community of beings who thinks through signs. The problem of religious belief is the acceptance of a transcendent world and intuition which guides behavior. The vague idea of God is not submitted to scientific hypotheses but, engendered by religious systems, it creates signs whose emotional appeal is evident, redirecting it to its own target principles. Therefore, is repeats the success achieved in the past by dogmas, which were effective to appease the anguish of the believer and reproduce order. Knowledge should not have any boundaries because it is grounded on the method and cognition of reality.

Patch size, functional isolation, visibility and matrix permeability influences neotropical primate occurrence within highly fragmented landscapes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estudo e análise estatística no mercado de ações brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to verify and analyze the existence in Brazil of stylized facts observed in financial time series: volatility clustering, probability distributions with fat tails, the presence of long run memory in absolute return time series, absence of linear return autocorrelation, gain/loss asymmetry, aggregative gaussianity, slow absolute return autocorrelation decay, trading volume/volatility correlation and leverage effect. We analyzed intraday prices for 10 stocks traded at the BM&FBovespa, responsible for 52.1% of the Ibovespa portfolio on Sept. 01, 2009. The data analysis confirms the stylized facts, whose behavior is consistent with what is observed in international markets.

Essays on Industrial Organization and Environmental Economics

This dissertation studies environmental regulation issues in the hog production industry as well as forces behind the reorganization of the industry during the past two decades. Federal and State-level environmental regulations imposed on U.S. hog production during the year 2003 are examined in Chapter 1. Based on the number of regulations passed by the Federal government and states, the 2003 regulatory index is constructed. The regulatory stringency index suggests that state-level regulations vary across states and have increased over the years. In addition, state-level regulations are more stringent than federal regulations. Chapter 2 develops an empirically implementable theoretical model which allows us to investigate the long-run effects of environmental regulations on the U.S. hog industry. Hog feeding operations (HFOs) are divided into large feeding operations (LHFOs) and small feeding operations (SHFOs). The impact of the presence of a large number of LHFOs on the entry and exit of CHFOs is also examined. Results of this study suggest that: Increased state-level regulation stringency significantly lowers the output of SHFOs; increased state-level regulation stringency significantly lowers the output of LHFOs; increased state-level regulation stringency significantly lowers the number of SHFOs; SHFO output rises significantly in states that have a greater number of LHFOs; LHFO output rises significantly in states that have a greater number of LHFOs; the number of SHFOs significantly increases in states that have a greater numbers of LHFOs; regulation increases the average SHFO size; and regulation decreases the average LHFO size. Chapter 3 examines the importance of input availability, market attractiveness, agglomeration economies and environmental regulations on the reorganization of U.S. hog production for a panel of 22 U.S. hog producing states which include, Northern states, Southern states and Midwest states for the period 1994-2006. Results from this study suggest that: Hog production in a state is positively affected by hog production in a nearby state, confirming the presence of agglomeration economies; Environmental regulations and high corn price have negative effects on state-level U.S. hog production; High hog prices, and favorable labor cost, and land values attract hog production; and transportation cost has no effect on hog production. Advisors: Azzeddine Azzam and Karina Schoengold

CC96-396 Productcion Flexibility Contracts: Provisions, Implications and the Participation Decision

The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-127) was signed into law by President Clinton on April 4, 1996. Most provisions of the new law, including the commodity provisions, will be effective for seven years, 1996-2002. Unlike previous farm bills, provisions relating to commodity supports are grouped together under what is known as the Agricultural Market Transition Act (AMTA) program. Producers of seven commodities: corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice and cotton must sign Productive Flexibility Contracts (PFCs) to participate in the AMTA. These seven commodities are referred to as "contract commodities." This publication focuses on the PFCs, beginning with an overview of contract provisions. Potential short- and long-run implications of PFCs are then discussed.

Health and Growth: Causality through Education

Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments and growth. We address potential endogeneity by using various strategies, such as controlling for country specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings--We show theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically we show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value--The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments, that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting on increases in life expectancy, through its complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth..

An ecological economic interpretation of the Jevons effect

This article develops an ecological economic interpretation of the Jevons effect. Moreover, it is argued that under the neoclassical paradigm there are no elements with which to foresee the long-term existence of this phenomenon. The objective of these arguments is to demonstrate that the Jevons effect can be used to compare the ability of neoclassical and ecological economics describing the social appropriation of nature. This is elaborated in two steps. First, we show the importance of the thesis that the economy cannot be cut off from the biophysical materiality of what is produced to give consistency to the so-called Khazzoom-Brookes postulate. It is made clear that this supposition is exogenous to the neoclassical paradigm. Second, the supposition of the biophysical materiality of what is produced is utilized to make an ecological economic interpretation of the Jevons effect. Afterwards, a comparison is made between the neoclassical and the ecological economic perspectives. This comparison leads to the following conclusions: (i) the persistent presence of the Jevons effect in the long run is an anomaly in the neoclassical paradigm; (ii) the observation of the non-existence of the Jevons effect is a refutation of the supposition that economic growth and biophysical materiality are not separable, a central thesis defended by ecological economists. This situation makes possible to use the Jevons effect as a 'laboratory test' to compare the ability of neoclassical and ecological economic paradigms to describe the social appropriation of nature. (C) 20111 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transiting exoplanets from the CoRoT space mission XXIII. CoRoT-21b: a doomed large Jupiter around a faint subgiant star

CoRoT-21, a F8IV star of magnitude V = 16 mag, was observed by the space telescope CoRoT during the Long Run 01 ( LRa01) in the first winter field (constellation Monoceros) from October 2007 to March 2008. Transits were discovered during the light curve processing. Radial velocity follow-up observations, however, were performed mainly by the 10-m Keck telescope in January 2010. The companion CoRoT-21b is a Jupiter-like planet of 2.26 +/- 0.33 Jupiter masses and 1.30 +/- 0.14 Jupiter radii in an circular orbit of semi-major axis 0.0417 +/- 0.0011 AU and an orbital period of 2.72474 +/- 0.00014 days. The planetary bulk density is ( 1.36 +/- 0.48) x 10(3) kg m(-3), very similar to the bulk density of Jupiter, and follows an M-1/3 - R relation like Jupiter. The F8IV star is a sub-giant star of 1.29 +/- 0.09 solar masses and 1.95 +/- 0.2 solar radii. The star and the planet exchange extreme tidal forces that will lead to orbital decay and extreme spin-up of the stellar rotation within 800 Myr if the stellar dissipation is Q(*)/k2(*) <= 107.

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Overlapping of ESP/EAP and content courses revisited

[ES] This paper deals with some key issues in a controversial topic, that of the existing overlapping between ESP/EAP courses and simultaneously-run content courses. Some examples are provided and analyzed to be aware of the need of ESP/EAP practitioners to have a fairly deep knowledge of those technical matters they have to deal with in order to be as genuinely communicative as possible. Later on, a list of principles for designing successful ESP/EAP courses is presented and justified. After putting into practice a communicative approach founded on those principles for a period of five years, the opinion of those students who have taken two ESP/EAP courses was gathered –an ad hoc questionnaire was developed for the purpose–. data are analyzed to hypothesize the long-run correlation between applying the above mentioned principles and the positive opinion of students on their teachers when those principles are applied at university level.