How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

Tree and Brush Control For County Road Right-of-Way, Ocotober 2002

This manual summarizes the roadside tree and brush control methods used by all of Iowa's 99 counties. It is based on interviews conducted in Spring 2002 with county engineers, roadside managers and others. The target audience of this manual is the novice county engineer or roadside manager. Iowa law is nearly silent on roadside tree and brush control, so individual counties have been left to decide on the level of control they want to achieve and maintain. Different solutions have been developed but the goal of every county remains the same: to provide safe roads for the traveling public. Counties in eastern and southern Iowa appear to face the greatest brush control challenge. Most control efforts can be divided into two categories: mechanical and chemical. Mechanical control includes cutting tools and supporting equipment. A chain saw is the most widely used cutting tool. Tractor mounted boom mowers and brush cutters are used to prune miles of brush but have significant safety and aesthetic limitations and boom mowers are easily broken by inexperienced operators. The advent of tree shears and hydraulic thumbs offer unprecedented versatility. Bulldozers are often considered a method of last resort since they reduce large areas to bare ground. Any chipper that violently grabs brush should not be used. Chemical control is the application of herbicide to different parts of a plant: foliar spray is applied to leaves; basal bark spray is applied to the tree trunk; a cut stump treatment is applied to the cambium ring of a cut surface. There is reluctance by many to apply herbicide into the air due to drift concerns. One-third of Iowa counties do not use foliar spray. By contrast, several accepted control methods are directed toward the ground. Freshly cut stumps should be treated to prevent resprouting. Basal bark spray is highly effective in sensitive areas such as near houses. Interest in chemical control is slowly increasing as herbicides and application methods are refined. Fall burning, a third, distinctly separate technique is underused as a brush control method and can be effective if timed correctly. In all, control methods tend to reflect agricultural patterns in a county. The use of chain saws and foliar sprays tends to increase in counties where row crops predominate, and boom mowing tends to increase in counties where grassland predominates. For counties with light to moderate roadside brush, rotational maintenance is the key to effective control. The most comprehensive approach to control is to implement an integrated roadside vegetation management (IRVM) program. An IRVM program is usually directed by a Roadside Manager whose duties may be shared with another position. Funding for control programs comes from the Rural Services Basic portion of a county's budget. The average annual county brush control budget is about $76,000. That figure is thought not to include shared expenses such as fuel and buildings. Start up costs for an IRVM program are less if an existing control program is converted. In addition, IRVM budgets from three different northeastern Iowa counties are offered for comparison in this manual. The manual also includes a chapter on temporary traffic control in rural work zones, a summary of the Iowa Code as it relates to brush control, and rules on avoiding seasonal disturbance of the endangered Indiana bat. Appendices summarize survey and forest cover data, an equipment inventory, sample forms for record keeping, a sample brush control policy, a few legal opinions, a literature search, and a glossary.

Plumage ornaments, bacterial colonisation and signalling in european starling, "Sturnus vulgaris"

Abstract Animal behaviours or structures are used by senders as signals to try to increase their fitness by altering the behaviour of receivers. A large fraction of studies on sexual selection have focussed on male ornaments and have demonstrated that these ornaments signal the quality of their owner and are used by female for mate choice. Although females can also exhibit conspicuous traits, studies on female ornaments are markedly lacking. In chapter 1, we show that female starlings are showier on chest whiteness than males and that females' whiteness may potentially indicate female condition at the start of breeding and provide fitness advantages to breeding birds. Furthermore we point out that feather density and abrasion are important factors shaping the expression of chest whiteness. This suggests that further understanding of the evolution of chest whiteness in Starlings requires to examine the environmental and physiological factors that shape feather condition. Plumage may suffer from damage through abrasion and bacterial activity. In chapter 2, we focus on factors that influence feather-degrading bacterial communities. Within the hypothesis that parental care can be trade-off against the demands of self-maintenance, we show that a brood size manipulation modifies the structure of feather-degrading bacterial communities and the density of free- living bacteria. Thus we have pointed out a potentially poorly known cost of reproduction. In the same context of a trade-off between reproductive activities and individual self-maintenance, chapter 3 shows that at a proximate level in females but not in males, the individual variation in time and/or energy allocated in reproductive activities is associated with prolactin hormone levels. Our study provides evidence for the existence of a sex related difference in the relationship between brood size and prolactin levels. Birds have evolved sanitation behaviours and preen gland secretions to preserve the condition of their plumage. In chapter 4, we describe a method that allows to measure preen gland in situ. Then we use this method to characterize a number of phenotypic and ecological factors that explain variation in preen gland size in free-living individuals. In parent-offspring interactions, parents use offspring signals to provision their brood. In chapter 5, we demonstrate that nestling flanges and body skin reflect in the ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths ant that parents use this UV reflectance in food allocation decisions. Résumé Certains comportements et structures chez les animaux agissent, pour ceux qui les émettent, comme des signaux permettant d'augmenter leur fitness en altérant les comportements de ceux qui les perçoivent. Une grande partie des études sur la sélection sexuelle s'est focalisée sur les ornements mâles. Ces études ont démontré que ces ornements pouvaient signaler la qualité de celui qui les porte et influencer le choix des femelles. Bien que les femelles puissent aussi présenter des traits voyants, les études sur leurs ornements font défaut. Dans le chapitre 1 de ce travail, nous montrons que les étourneaux femelles sont plus voyantes que les mâles sur la base de la blancheur de la poitrine. De plus la blancheur des femelles peut signaler leur condition au début de la saison de reproduction et ainsi être corrélée avec leur fitness. Nous mettons aussi en évidence que la densité et l'abrasion des plumes sont des facteurs importants, contrôlant l'expression de la blancheur de la poitrine. Ceci suggère que des études futures pourraient examiner le rôle des facteurs environnementaux et physiologiques qui influencent la condition des plumes pour mieux comprendre l'évolution de la blancheur chez les étourneaux. Le plumage subit des dommages à travers l'abrasion et probablement aussi par l'activité de dégradation de bactéries. Dans le chapitre 2 de ce travail, nous nous intéressons aux facteurs qui influencent les communautés de bactéries dégradant les plumes. Nous basant sur l'hypothèse selon laquelle il existe un compromis entre les soins parentaux et la maintenance corporelle, nous montrons qu'une manipulation de la taille de nichée modifie la structure des communautés de bactéries dégradant les plumes ainsi que les densités de bactéries libres présentes sur le plumage. Ainsi nous mettons en évidence un coût encore peu connu des activités de reproduction. Dans le même contexte, nous montrons, dans le chapitre 3, que des variations individuelles dans l'énergie et/ou le temps alloué dans les activités de reproduction sont associés, chez les femelles, à un niveau proximal à l'hormone prolactine. Cette relation n'est pas présente chez les mâles. Cette étude montre que la relation entre la taille de nichée et les niveaux de prolactine diffère avec le sexe des individus. Les oiseaux utilisent des comportements de nettoyage associés aux sécrétions de la glande uropygiale afin de préserver la condition de leurs plumes. Dans le chapitre 4 de ce travail, nous décrivons une méthode qui permet de mesurer la taille de la glande in situ. Puis nous caractérisons certains facteurs écologiques et physiologiques qui expliquent les variations de la taille de la glande chez des individus capturés dans leur environnement. Les parents nourrissent leur progéniture en réponse à des signaux émis par ceux-ci. Dans le chapitre 5 de ce travail, nous démontrons que les commissures et la peau sur le corps des oisillons reflètent la lumière dans l'ultraviolet. Nous montrons que les parents utilisent cette réflexion dans l'ultraviolet lors de l'allocation de nourriture pour leurs jeunes.

Computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals; effects on professional practice and health care outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice does not always reflect best practice and evidence, partly because of unconscious acts of omission, information overload, or inaccessible information. Reminders may help clinicians overcome these problems by prompting the doctor to recall information that they already know or would be expected to know and by providing information or guidance in a more accessible and relevant format, at a particularly appropriate time. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of reminders automatically generated through a computerized system and delivered on paper to healthcare professionals on processes of care (related to healthcare professionals' practice) and outcomes of care (related to patients' health condition). SEARCH METHODS: For this update the EPOC Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the following databases between June 11-19, 2012: The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Cochrane Library (Economics, Methods, and Health Technology Assessment sections), Issue 6, 2012; MEDLINE, OVID (1946- ), Daily Update, and In-process; EMBASE, Ovid (1947- ); CINAHL, EbscoHost (1980- ); EPOC Specialised Register, Reference Manager, and INSPEC, Engineering Village. The authors reviewed reference lists of related reviews and studies.  SELECTION CRITERIA: We included individual or cluster-randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomized controlled trials (NRCTs) that evaluated the impact of computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals on processes and/or outcomes of care. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Review authors working in pairs independently screened studies for eligibility and abstracted data. We contacted authors to obtain important missing information for studies that were published within the last 10 years. For each study, we extracted the primary outcome when it was defined or calculated the median effect size across all reported outcomes. We then calculated the median absolute improvement and interquartile range (IQR) in process adherence across included studies using the primary outcome or median outcome as representative outcome. MAIN RESULTS: In the 32 included studies, computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals achieved moderate improvement in professional practices, with a median improvement of processes of care of 7.0% (IQR: 3.9% to 16.4%). Implementing reminders alone improved care by 11.2% (IQR 6.5% to 19.6%) compared with usual care, while implementing reminders in addition to another intervention improved care by 4.0% only (IQR 3.0% to 6.0%) compared with the other intervention. The quality of evidence for these comparisons was rated as moderate according to the GRADE approach. Two reminder features were associated with larger effect sizes: providing space on the reminder for provider to enter a response (median 13.7% versus 4.3% for no response, P value = 0.01) and providing an explanation of the content or advice on the reminder (median 12.0% versus 4.2% for no explanation, P value = 0.02). Median improvement in processes of care also differed according to the behaviour the reminder targeted: for instance, reminders to vaccinate improved processes of care by 13.1% (IQR 12.2% to 20.7%) compared with other targeted behaviours. In the only study that had sufficient power to detect a clinically significant effect on outcomes of care, reminders were not associated with significant improvements. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is moderate quality evidence that computer-generated reminders delivered on paper to healthcare professionals achieve moderate improvement in process of care. Two characteristics emerged as significant predictors of improvement: providing space on the reminder for a response from the clinician and providing an explanation of the reminder's content or advice. The heterogeneity of the reminder interventions included in this review also suggests that reminders can improve care in various settings under various conditions.

Blood corticosterone levels and intersexual selection games: best-of-bad-job strategies of male common lizards

Glucocorticoids affect physiology and behaviour, reproduction and potentially sexual selection as well. Shortterm and moderate glucocorticoid elevations are suggested to be adaptive, and prolonged and high elevations may be extremely harmful. This suggests that optimal reproductive strategies, and thus sexual selection, may be dose dependent. Here, we investigate effects of moderate and high elevations of blood corticosterone levels on intra- and intersexual behaviour and mating success of male common lizards Lacerta vivipara. Females showed less interest and more aggressive behaviour towards high corticosterone males and blood corticosterone levels affected male reproductive strategy. Males of moderate and high corticosterone elevations, compared with Control males, showed increased interest (i.e., higher number of chases, tongue extrusions, and approaches) towards females and high corticosterone males initiated more copulation attempts. However, neither increased male interest nor increased copulation attempts resulted in more copulations. This provides evidence for a best-of-a-bad-job strategy, where males with higher corticosterone levels compensated for reduced female interest and increased aggressive female behaviour directed towards them, by showing higher interest and by conducting more copulation attempts. Blood corticosterone levels affected intrasexual selection as well since moderate corticosterone levels positively affected male dominance, but dominance did not affect mating success. These findings underline the importance of female mate choice and are in line with adaptive compensatory behaviours of males. They further show that glucocorticoid effects on behaviour are dose dependent and that they have important implications for sexual selection and social interactions, and might potentially affect Darwinian fitness.

Interpretation: Printed Document Examination and Evidence

The literature dealing with the interpretation of results of examinations performed on "printed" documents is very limited. The absence of published literature reflects the absence of formal guidelines to help scientists assess the relationship between a questioned document and a particular printing technology. Generally, every printout, independent of the printing technology, may bear traces induced by characteristics of manufacture and/or acquired features of the printing device. A logical approach to help the scientist in the formal interpretation of such findings involves the consideration of a likelihood ratio. Three examples aim to show the application of this approach.

Enhanced recovery after surgery: are we ready, and can we afford not to implement these pathways for patients undergoing radical cystectomy?

Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) for radical cystectomy seems logical, but our study has shown a paucity in the level of clinical evidence. As part of the ERAS Society, we welcome global collaboration to collect evidence that will improve patient outcomes.

Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: a logical approach fro interpreting the evidence

Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

Artificial-Intelligence-Based Optimization of the Management of Snow Removal Assets and Resources Final Report, October 2002

Geographic information systems (GIS) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques were used to develop an intelligent snow removal asset management system (SRAMS). The system has been evaluated through a case study examining snow removal from the roads in Black Hawk County, Iowa, for which the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) is responsible. The SRAMS is comprised of an expert system that contains the logical rules and expertise of the Iowa DOT’s snow removal experts in Black Hawk County, and a geographic information system to access and manage road data. The system is implemented on a mid-range PC by integrating MapObjects 2.1 (a GIS package), Visual Rule Studio 2.2 (an AI shell), and Visual Basic 6.0 (a programming tool). The system could efficiently be used to generate prioritized snowplowing routes in visual format, to optimize the allocation of assets for plowing, and to track materials (e.g., salt and sand). A test of the system reveals an improvement in snowplowing time by 1.9 percent for moderate snowfall and 9.7 percent for snowstorm conditions over the current manual system.

Extreme prematurity and intra uterine growth restriction effects in brain network topology at school age

Higher risk for long-term behavioral and emotional sequelae, with attentional problems (with or without hyperactivity) is now becoming one of the hallmarks of extreme premature (EP) birth and birth after pregancy conditions leading to poor intra uterine growth restriction (IUGR) [1,2]. However, little is know so far about the neurostructural basis of these complexe brain functional abnormalities that seem to have their origins in early critical periods of brain development. The development of cortical axonal pathways happens in a series of sequential events. The preterm phase (24-36 post conecptional weeks PCW) is known for being crucial for growth of the thalamocortical fiber bundles as well as for the development of long projectional, commisural and projectional fibers [3]. Is it logical to expect, thus, that being exposed to altered intrauterine environment (altered nutrition) or to extrauterine environment earlier that expected, lead to alterations in the structural organization and, consequently, alter the underlying white matter (WM) structure. Understanding rate and variability of normal brain development, and detect differences from typical development may offer insight into the neurodevelopmental anomalies that can be imaged at later stages. Due to its unique ability to non-invasively visualize and quantify in vivo white matter tracts in the brain, in this study we used diffusion MRI (dMRI) tractography to derive brain graphs [4,5,6]. This relatively simple way of modeling the brain enable us to use graph theory to study topological properties of brain graphs in order to study the effects of EP and IUGR on childrens brain connectivity at age 6 years old.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Sequential therapist interventions and the therapeutic alliance: a pilot study

(from the journal abstract) Scientific interest for the concept of alliance has been maintained and stimulated by repeated findings that a strong alliance is associated with facilitative treatment process and favourable treatment outcome. However, because the alliance is not in itself a therapeutic technique, these findings were unsuccessful in bringing about significant improvements in clinical practice. An essential issue in modern psychotherapeutic research concerns the relation between common factors which are known to explain great variance in empirical results and the specific therapeutic techniques which are the primary basis of clinical training and practice. This pilot study explored sequences in therapist interventions over four sessions of brief psychodynamic investigation. It aims at determining if patterns of interventions can be found during brief psychodynamic investigation and if these patterns can be associated with differences in the therapeutic alliance. Therapist interventions where coded using the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scale (PIRS) which enables the classification of each therapist utterance into one of 9 categories of interpretive interventions (defence interpretation, transference interpretation), supportive interventions (question, clarification, association, reflection, supportive strategy) or interventions about the therapeutic frame (work-enhancing statement, contractual arrangement). Data analysis was done using lag sequential analysis, a statistical procedure which identifies contingent relationships in time among a large number of behaviours. The sample includes N = 20 therapist-patient dyads assigned to three groups with: (1) a high and stable alliance profile, (2) a low and stable alliance profile and (3) an improving alliance profile. Results suggest that therapists most often have one single intention when interacting with patients. Large sequences of questions, associations and clarifications were found, which indicate that if a therapist asks a question, clarifies or associates, there is a significant probability that he will continue doing so. A single theme sequence involving frame interventions was also observed. These sequences were found in all three alliance groups. One exception was found for mixed sequences of interpretations and supportive interventions. The simultaneous use of these two interventions was associated with a high or an improving alliance over the course of treatment, but not with a low and stable alliance where only single theme sequences of interpretations were found. In other words, in this last group, therapists were either supportive or interpretative, whereas with high or improving alliance, interpretations were always given along with supportive interventions. This finding provides evidence that examining therapist interpretation individually can only yield incomplete findings. How interpretations were given is important for alliance building. It also suggests that therapists should carefully dose their interpretations and be supportive when necessary in order to build a strong therapeutic alliance. And from a research point of view, to study technical interventions, we must look into dynamic variables such as dosage, the supportive quality of an intervention, and timing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved)

Neutral and selection-driven decay of sexual traits in asexual stick insects.

Environmental shifts and lifestyle changes may result in formerly adaptive traits becoming non-functional or maladaptive. The subsequent decay of such traits highlights the importance of natural selection for adaptations, yet its causes have rarely been investigated. To study the fate of formerly adaptive traits after lifestyle changes, we evaluated sexual traits in five independently derived asexual lineages, including traits that are specific to males and therefore not exposed to selection. At least four of the asexual lineages retained the capacity to produce males that display normal courtship behaviours and are able to fertilize eggs of females from related sexual species. The maintenance of male traits may stem from pleiotropy, or from these traits only regressing via drift, which may require millions of years to generate phenotypic effects. By contrast, we found parallel decay of sexual traits in females. Asexual females produced altered airborne and contact signals, had modified sperm storage organs, and lost the ability to fertilize their eggs, impeding reversals to sexual reproduction. Female sexual traits were decayed even in recently derived asexuals, suggesting that trait changes following the evolution of asexuality, when they occur, proceed rapidly and are driven by selective processes rather than drift.