Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

Evaluation of the Newly-developed, Least-cost Experimental Diet for Bluegill at Commercial Densities in Ponds

A substantial need exists to reduce costs and develop more nutritionally adequate diets for established as well as emerging aquaculture species in the North Central Region (NCR). The study evaluated a diet for juvenile northern bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) that is significantly less costly than currently available diets for sunfish, while yielding a growth rate that is at least equal to an industry standard sunfish diet. Such a diet formulation is now available to the NCR as the result of a recently funded North Central Regional Aquaculture Center (NCRAC) project.

Geochemical and physical sediment properties of sediment cores from the Portuguese shelf

Marine sediments from the Portuguese shelf are influenced by environmental changes in the surrounding continental and marine environment. These are largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, but additional impacts may arise from episodic tsunamis. In order to investigate these influences, a high resolution multi-proxy study has been carried out on a 5.4 m long gravity core and five box cores from the Tagus prodelta on the western Portuguese margin, incorporating geochemical (Corg/Ntotal ratios, d13Corg, d15N, d18O, Corg and CaCO3 content) and physical sediment properties (magnetic susceptibility, grain-size). Subsurface data of the five box cores indicate no major effect of early postdepositional alteration. Surface data show a higher fraction of terrigenous organic material close to the river mouth and in the southern prodelta. Gravity core GeoB 8903 covers the last 3.2 kyrs with a temporal resolution of at least 0.1 cm/yr. Very high sedimentation rates between 69 and 140 cm core depth indicate a possible disturbance of the record by the AD1755 tsunami, although no evidence for a disturbance is observed in the data. Sea surface temperature and salinity on the prodelta, the local budget of marine NO3- as well as the provenance of organic matter remained virtually constant during the past 3.2 kyrs. A positive correlation between magnetic susceptibility (MS) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is evident for the past 250 years, coinciding with a negative correlation between mean grain-size and NAO. This is assigned to a constant riverine supply of fine material with high MS, which is diluted by the riverine input of a coarser, low-MS component during NAO negative, high-precipitation phases. End-member modelling of the lithic grain-size spectrum supports this, revealing a third, coarse lithic component. The high abundance of this coarse end-member prior to 2 kyr BP is interpreted as the result of stronger bottom currents, concentrating the coarse sediment fraction by winnowing. As continental climate was more arid prior to 2 kyr BP (Subboreal), the coarse end-member may also consist of dust from local sources. A decrease in grain-size and CaCO3 content after 2 kyr BP is interpreted as a result of decreasing wind strength. The onset of a fining trend and a further decrease in CaCO3 around AD900 occurs simultaneous to climatic variations, reconstructed from eastern North Atlantic records. A strong increase in MS between AD1400 and AD1500 indicates higher lithic terrigenous input, caused by deforestation in the hinterland.

(Table 1) Iceberg characteristics and start and end date and location of iceberg buoys in the Weddell Sea

The drift of 52 icebergs tagged with GPS buoys in the Weddell Sea since 1999 has been investigated with respect to prevalent drift tracks, sea ice/iceberg interaction, and freshwater fluxes. Buoys were deployed on small- to medium-sized icebergs (edge lengths ? 5 km) in the southwestern and eastern Weddell Sea. The basin-scale iceberg drift of this size class was established. In the western Weddell Sea, icebergs followed a northward course with little deviation and mean daily drift rates up to 9.5 ± 7.3 km/d. To the west of 40°W the drift of iceberg and sea ice was coherent. In the highly consolidated perennial sea ice cover of 95% the sea ice exerted a steering influence on the icebergs and was thus responsible for the coherence of the drift tracks. The northward drift of buoys to the east of 40°W was interrupted by large deviations due to the passage of low-pressure systems. Mean daily drift rates in this area were 11.5 ± 7.2 km/d. A lower threshold of 86% sea ice concentration for coherent sea ice/iceberg movement was determined by examining the sea ice concentration derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) satellite data. The length scale of coherent movement was estimated to be at least 200 km, about half the value found for the Arctic Ocean but twice as large as previously suggested. The freshwater fluxes estimated from three iceberg export scenarios deduced from the iceberg drift pattern were highly variable. Assuming a transit time in the Weddell Sea of 1 year, the iceberg meltwater input of 31 Gt which is about a third of the basal meltwater input from the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf but spreads across the entire Weddell Sea. Iceberg meltwater export of 14.2 × 103 m3 s?1, if all icebergs are exported, is in the lower range of freshwater export by sea ice.

Potassium and argon concentrations and age determination of ODP Site 125-782 and 125-786

K-Ar whole-rock ages have been obtained for 30 samples from Sites 782 and 786, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 125 in the Izu-Bonin (Ogasawara) forearc region. They form a trimodal spread of ages between 9 Ma and 44 Ma and are, with a few exceptions, consistent with the inferred lithostratigraphy. The ages have been interpreted in terms of at least two distinct episodes of magmatic and/or hydrothermal activity. A group of ten samples, including the lava flows, gave an isochron age of 41.3 ± 0.5 Ma (middle-late Eocene). This is thought to represent the age of the principal magmatic development of the volcanic forearc basement, and is comparable to published ages on equivalent rocks from other parts of the forearc basement high (e.g., the Ogasawara Islands). It may be significant that this age is slightly younger than the timing of major plate reorganization in the Western Pacific at about 43 Ma. This was followed by a minor episode of intrusive magmatism at 34.6 ± 0.7 Ma (early Oligocene) which appears to have reset the ages of some of the earlier units. This event probably corresponds to the initiation of rifting of the "proto-arc" to form the Parece Vela Basin. Boninitic samples were erupted during both episodes of magmatism, the earlier being of low-Ca boninite type and the later being of medium- and high-Ca types. It is also possible that a third episode of intrusive magmatism affected the Izu-Bonin forearc region at both Sites 782 and 786 at about 17 Ma. This would be consistent with magmatic activity elsewhere in the region during the Miocene, associated with the end of active spreading in the Parece Vela Basin and the start of arc activity in the West Mariana Ridge.

Mineralogical and geochemical data from five lake sediment cores of Lake Donggi Cona

Sediments of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19 kyr. The lake today fills a 30 X 8 km big and 95 m deep tectonic basin, associated with the Kunlun Fault. The study was conducted on a sediment-core transect through the lake basin, in order to gain a complete picture of spatiotemporal environmental change. The recovered sediments are partly finely laminated and are composed of calcareous muds with variable amounts of carbonate micrite, organic matter, detrital silt and clay. On the basis of sedimentological, geochemical, and mineralogical data up to five lithological units (LU) can be distinguished that document distinct stages in the development of the lake system. The onset of the lowermost LU with lacustrine muds above basal sands indicates that lake level was at least 39 m below the present level and started to rise after 19 ka, possibly in response to regional deglaciation. At this time, the lacustrine environment was characterized by detrital sediment influx and the deposition of siliciclastic sediment. In two sediment cores, upward grain-size coarsening documents a lake-level fall after 13 cal ka BP, possibly associated with the late-glacial Younger Dryas stadial. From 11.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP, grainsize fining in sediment cores from the profundal coring sites and the onset of lacustrine deposition at a litoral core site (2m water depth) in a recent marginal bay of Donggi Cona document lake-level rise during the early tomid-Holocene to at least modern level. In addition, high biological productivity and pronounced precipitation of carbonate micrites are consistent with warm and moist climate conditions related to an enhanced influence of summer monsoon. At 4.3 cal ka BP the lake system shifted from an aragonite- to a calcite-dominated system, indicating a change towards a fully open hydrological lake system. The younger clay-rich sediments are moreover non-laminated and lack any diagenetic sulphides, pointing to fully ventilated conditions, and the prevailing absence of lake stratification. This turning point in lake history could imply either a threshold response to insolation-forced climate cooling or a response to a non-climatic trigger, such as an erosional event or a tectonic pulse that induced a strong earthquake, which is difficult to decide from our data base.

Th-U ages of a stalagmite from the Kleegruben Cave (Table 1)

A mass-spectrometric uranium-series dated stalagmite from the Central Alps of Austria provides unprecedented new insights into high-altitude climate change during the peak of isotope stage 3. The stalagmite formed continuously between 57 and 46 kyr before present. A series of 'Hendy tests' demonstrates that the outer parts of the sample show a progressive increase of both stable C and O isotope values. No such covariant increase was detected within the axial zone. This in conjunction with other observations suggests that the continuous stable oxygen isotope profile obtained from the axial zone of the stalagmite largely reflects the unaltered isotopic composition of the cave drip water. The delta18O record shows events of high delta18O values that correlate remarkably with Interstadials 15 (a and b), 14 and 12 identified in the Greenland ice cores. Interstadial 15b started rapidly at 55.6 kyr and lasted ~300 yr only, Interstadial 15a peaked 54.9 kyr ago and was even of shorter duration (~100 yr), and Interstadial 14 commenced 54.2 kyr ago and lasted ~3000 yr. This stalagmite thus represents one of the first terrestrial archives outside the high latitudes which record precisely dated Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) events during isotope stage 3. Provided that rapid D/O warmings occurred synchronously in Greenland and the European Alps, the new data provide an independent tool to improve the GRIP and GISP2 chronologies.