Myocardial infarct size and mortality depend on the time of day-a large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Different studies have shown circadian variation of ischemic burden among patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI), but with controversial results. The aim of this study was to analyze circadian variation of myocardial infarction size and in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter registry. METHODS: This retrospective, registry-based study was based on data from AMIS Plus, a large multicenter Swiss registry of patients who suffered myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2013. Peak creatine kinase (CK) was used as a proxy measure for myocardial infarction size. Associations between peak CK, in-hospital mortality, and the time of day at symptom onset were modelled using polynomial-harmonic regression methods. RESULTS: 6,223 STEMI patients were admitted to 82 acute-care hospitals in Switzerland and treated with primary angioplasty within six hours of symptom onset. Only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with peak CK (p = 0.0001). The maximum average peak CK value (2,315 U/L) was for patients with symptom onset at 23:00, whereas the minimum average (2,017 U/L) was for onset at 11:00. The amplitude of variation was 298 U/L. In addition, no correlation was observed between ischemic time and circadian peak CK variation. Of the 6,223 patients, 223 (3.58%) died during index hospitalization. Remarkably, only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The risk of death from STEMI was highest for patients with symptom onset at 00:00 and lowest for those with onset at 12:00. DISCUSSION: As a part of this first large study of STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty in Swiss hospitals, investigations confirmed a circadian pattern to both peak CK and in-hospital mortality which were independent of total ischemic time. Accordingly, this study proposes that symptom onset time be incorporated as a prognosis factor in patients with myocardial infarction.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade > or =III vs <III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p<0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (> or =4 mm vs <4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p<0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (> or =60 vs <60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (> or =5 years vs <5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Noise and aggregation of information in large markets

We study a novel class of noisy rational expectations equilibria in markets with largenumber of agents. We show that, as long as noise increases with the number of agents inthe economy, the limiting competitive equilibrium is well-defined and leads to non-trivialinformation acquisition, perfect information aggregation, and partially revealing prices,even if per capita noise tends to zero. We find that in such equilibrium risk sharing and price revelation play dierent roles than in the standard limiting economy in which per capita noise is not negligible. We apply our model to study information sales by a monopolist, information acquisition in multi-asset markets, and derivatives trading. Thelimiting equilibria are shown to be perfectly competitive, even when a strategic solutionconcept is used.

An European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase I study of lapatinib and docetaxel as neoadjuvant treatment for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) positive locally-advanced/inflammatory or large operable breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lapatinib is an effective anti-HER2 therapy in advanced breast cancer and docetaxel is one of the most active agents in breast cancer. Combining these agents in pre-treated patients with metastatic disease had previously proved challenging, so the primary objective of this study aimed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in treatment-naive patients, by identifying acute dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) during cycle 1 in the first part of a phases 1-2 neoadjuvant European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with large operable or locally-advanced HER2 positive breast cancer were treated with continuous lapatinib, and docetaxel every 21days for 4 cycles. Dose levels (DLs) were: 1000/75, 1250/75, 1000/85, 1250/85, 1000/100 and 1250/100 (mg/day)/(mg/m(2)). RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were included. Two DLTs occurred at dose level 5 (1000/100); one grade 4 neutropenia ⩾7days and one febrile neutropenia. A further 3 patients were therefore treated at the same dose with prophylactic granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), and 3 patients at dose level 6. No further DLTs were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our recommended dose for phase II is lapatinib 1000mg/day and docetaxel 100mg/m(2) with G-CSF in HER2 positive non-metastatic breast cancer. The dose of lapatinib should have been 1250mg/day but we were mindful of the high rate of treatment discontinuation in GeparQuinto with lapatinib 1250mg/day combined with docetaxel. No grade 3-4 diarrhoea was observed. Pharmacodynamics analysis suggests that concomitant medications altering P-glycoprotein activity (in addition to lapatinib) can modify toxicity, including non-haematological toxicities. This needs verification in larger trials, where it may contribute to understanding the sources of variability in clinical toxicity and treatment discontinuation.

Combined approach for the management of large vestibular schwannomas: Planned subtotal resection followed by gamma knife surgery in a series of 20 consecutive cases.

INTRODUCTION: The management of large lesions of the skull base, such as vestibular schwannomas (VS) is challenging. Microsurgery remains the main treatment option. Combined approaches (planned subtotal resection followed by gamma knife surgery (GKS) for residual tumor long-term control) are being increasingly considered to reduce the risk of neurological deficits following complete resection. The current study aims to prospectively evaluate the safety-efficacy of combined approach in patients with large VS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We present our experience with planned subtotal resection followed by gamma knife surgery (GKS) in a consecutive a series of 20 patients with large vestibular schwannomas, treated between 2009 and 2014 in Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Clinical and radiological data and audiograms were prospectively collected for all patients, before and after surgery, before and after GKS, at regular intervals, in dedicated case-report forms. Additionally, for GKS, dose-planning parameters were registered. RESULTS: Twenty patients (6 males and 14 females) with large VS had been treated by this approach. The mean age at the time of surgery was 51.6years (range 34.4-73.4). The mean presurgical diameter was 36.7 (range 26.1-45). The mean presurgical tumor volume was 15.9cm(3) (range 534.9). Three patients (15%) needed a second surgical intervention because of high volume of the tumor remnant considered too large for a safe GKS. The mean follow-up after surgery was 27.2months (range 6-61.3). The timing of GKS was decided on the basis of the residual tumor shape and size following surgery. The mean duration between surgery and GKS was 7.6months (range 413.9, median 6months). The mean tumor volume at the time of GKS was 4.1cm(3) (range 0.5-12.8). The mean prescription isodose volume was 6.3cm(3) (range 0.8-15.5). The mean number of isocenters was 20.4 (range 11-31) and the mean marginal prescription dose was 11.7Gy (range 11-12). We did not have any major complications in our series. Postoperative status showed normal facial nerve function (House-Brackmann grade I) in all patients. Six patients with useful pre-operative hearing (GR class 1) underwent surgery with the aim to preserve cochlear nerve function; of these patients, 5 (83.3%) of them remained in GR class 1 and one (16.7%) lost hearing (GR class 5). Two patients having GR class 3 at baseline remained in the same GR class, but the tonal audiometry improved in one of them during follow-up. Eleven patients (57.8%) were in GR class 5 preoperatively; one patient improved hearing after surgery, passing to GR class 3 postoperatively. Following GKS, there were no new neurological deficits, with facial and hearing function remaining identical to that after surgery. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that planned subtotal resection followed by GKS has an excellent clinical outcome with respect to retaining facial and cochlear nerve function. This represents a paradigm shift of the treatment goals from a complete tumor excision perspective to that of a surgery designed to preserve neural functions. As long-term results emerge, this approach of a combined treatment (microsurgery and GKS) will most probably become the standard of care in the management of large vestibular schwanomma.

HACEK infective endocarditis: characteristics and outcomes from a large, multi-national cohort.

The HACEK organisms (Haemophilus species, Aggregatibacter species, Cardiobacterium hominis, Eikenella corrodens, and Kingella species) are rare causes of infective endocarditis (IE). The objective of this study is to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with HACEK endocarditis (HE) in a large multi-national cohort. Patients hospitalized with definite or possible infective endocarditis by the International Collaboration on Endocarditis Prospective Cohort Study in 64 hospitals from 28 countries were included and characteristics of HE patients compared with IE due to other pathogens. Of 5591 patients enrolled, 77 (1.4%) had HE. HE was associated with a younger age (47 vs. 61 years; p<0.001), a higher prevalence of immunologic/vascular manifestations (32% vs. 20%; p<0.008) and stroke (25% vs. 17% p = 0.05) but a lower prevalence of congestive heart failure (15% vs. 30%; p = 0.004), death in-hospital (4% vs. 18%; p = 0.001) or after 1 year follow-up (6% vs. 20%; p = 0.01) than IE due to other pathogens (n = 5514). On multivariable analysis, stroke was associated with mitral valve vegetations (OR 3.60; CI 1.34-9.65; p<0.01) and younger age (OR 0.62; CI 0.49-0.90; p<0.01). The overall outcome of HE was excellent with the in-hospital mortality (4%) significantly better than for non-HE (18%; p<0.001). Prosthetic valve endocarditis was more common in HE (35%) than non-HE (24%). The outcome of prosthetic valve and native valve HE was excellent whether treated medically or with surgery. Current treatment is very successful for the management of both native valve prosthetic valve HE but further studies are needed to determine why HE has a predilection for younger people and to cause stroke. The small number of patients and observational design limit inferences on treatment strategies. Self selection of study sites limits epidemiological inferences.

Some hypothesis tests for the covariance matrix when the dimension is large compared to the sample size

This paper analyzes whether standard covariance matrix tests work whendimensionality is large, and in particular larger than sample size. Inthe latter case, the singularity of the sample covariance matrix makeslikelihood ratio tests degenerate, but other tests based on quadraticforms of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues remain well-defined. Westudy the consistency property and limiting distribution of these testsas dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, with theirratio converging to a finite non-zero limit. We find that the existingtest for sphericity is robust against high dimensionality, but not thetest for equality of the covariance matrix to a given matrix. For thelatter test, we develop a new correction to the existing test statisticthat makes it robust against high dimensionality.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

Salvage regimens with autologous transplantation for relapsed large B-cell lymphoma in the rituximab era.

PURPOSE: Salvage chemotherapy followed by high-dose therapy and autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) is the standard treatment for relapsed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Salvage regimens have never been compared; their efficacy in the rituximab era is unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with CD20(+) DLBCL in first relapse or who were refractory after first-line therapy were randomly assigned to either rituximab, ifosfamide, etoposide, and carboplatin (R-ICE) or rituximab, dexamethasone, high-dose cytarabine, and cisplatin (R-DHAP). Responding patients received high-dose chemotherapy and ASCT. RESULTS: The median age of the 396 patients enrolled (R-ICE, n = 202; R-DHAP, n = 194) was 55 years. Similar response rates were observed after three cycles of R-ICE (63.5%; 95% CI, 56% to 70%) and R-DHAP (62.8%; 95 CI, 55% to 69%). Factors affecting response rates (P &lt; .001) were refractory disease/relapse less than versus more than 12 months after diagnosis (46% v 88%, respectively), International Prognostic Index (IPI) of more than 1 versus 0 to 1 (52% v 71%, respectively), and prior rituximab treatment versus no prior rituximab (51% v 83%, respectively). There was no significant difference between R-ICE and R-DHAP for 3-year event-free survival (EFS) or overall survival. Three-year EFS was affected by prior rituximab treatment versus no rituximab (21% v 47%, respectively), relapse less than versus more than 12 months after diagnosis (20% v 45%, respectively), and IPI of 2 to 3 versus 0 to 1 (18% v 40%, respectively). In the Cox model, these parameters were significant (P &lt; .001). CONCLUSION: In patients who experience relapse more than 12 months after diagnosis, prior rituximab treatment does not affect EFS. Patients with early relapses after rituximab-containing first-line therapy have a poor prognosis, with no difference between the effects of R-ICE and R-DHAP.

Microfabrics in carbonate mylonites along a large-scale shear zone (Helvetic Alps)

Carbonate mylonites with varying proportions of second-phase minerals were collected at positions of increasing metamorphic grade along the basal thrust of the Morcles nappe (Helvetic nappes, Switzerland). Variations of temperature, stress, and strain rate, changes in chemistry of solid and fluid phases, and differing degrees of strain localization and annealing were tracked by measuring the shapes, mean sizes, and size distributions of both matrix and second-phase grains, as well as crystal preferred orientation (CPO) of the matrix. Field structures suggest that strain rate was constant along the fault. The mean and distribution of the calcite grain sizes were affected most profoundly by temperature: Increased temperature, presumably accompanied by decreased stress, correlated with larger mean sizes and wider size distributions. At a given location, the matrix grains in mylonites with more second-phase particles are, on average, smaller, have narrower size distributions, and have more elongate shapes. For example, mylonites with 50 vol.% of second phases have matrix grain sizes half that of pure mylonites. Changes in calcite chemistry and the presence of synkinematic fluids seemed to influence microfabric only weakly. Temporal variations in conditions, such as exhumation-induced cooling, apparently provoke changes in temperature, stress, and strain rate along the nappe. These changes result in further strain localization during retrograde conditions and cause the grain size to be reduced by an additional 50%. The matrix CPO strengthens with increasing temperature or strain, but weakens and rotates with increasing second-phase content, These fabric changes suggest differing rates of grain growth, grain size reduction, and development of CPO owing to variations in the deformation conditions and, perhaps, mechanisms. To interpret natural mylonite structures or to extrapolate mechanical data to natural situations requires careful characterization of the microfabric, and, in particular, second-phase minerals. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V, All rights reserved.

Iodine-131-labeled MAb F(ab')2 fragments are more efficient and less toxic than intact anti-CEA antibodies in radioimmunotherapy of large human colon carcinoma grafted in nude mice.

During one week, beginning 18 days after transplantation, nude mice bearing human colon carcinoma ranging from 115 to 943 mm3 (mean 335 mm3) were treated by repeated intravenous injections of either iodine-131-(131I) labeled intact antibodies or 131I-labeled corresponding F(ab')2 fragments of a pool of four monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) directed against distinct epitopes of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Complete tumor remission was observed in 8 of 10 mice after therapy with F(ab')2 and 6 of the animals survived 10 mo in good health. In contrast, after treatment with intact MAbs, tumors relapsed in 7 of 8 mice after remission periods of 1 to 3.5 mo despite the fact that body weight loss and depression of peripheral white blood cells, symptoms of radiation toxicity, and the calculated radiation doses for liver, spleen, bone, and blood were increased or equal in these animals as compared to mice treated with F(ab')2.

Physical activity assessment using a pedometer and its comparison with a questionnaire in a large population survey.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the pedometer in epidemiologic research on physical activity. Within the framework of a health examination survey in 1988-1989, physical activity was assessed in a representative population sample of 493 men and women aged 25-74 years who were residents of Switzerland. They wore a pedometer for 1 week at work and during leisure time, and the results, converted into steps per day, were compared with answers to a questionnaire. The average number of steps per day decreased from 11,900 to 6,700 and from 9,300 to 7,300 for men and women, respectively, in the youngest to the oldest age groups. For men, categorized according to type of physical activity at work, there was a highly significant difference in the number of steps (p < 0.001), whereas in women the results were associated with leisure-time physical activity (p = 0.003). For both sexes, practicing sports more than once a week was associated with an important increase in steps per day. Analyzing the number of steps according to the day of the week and occupational category produced an unexpected result: Men with a physically active job engaged in more leisure-time physical activity on the weekend. The pedometer proved to be useful in assessing physical activity in a large, free-living population.

Soil and Water Conservation Strategies in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese) and Their Impacts on Livelihoods - An Overview from the Ribeira Seca Watershed

Severe land degradation has strongly affected both people’s livelihood and the environment in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese), a natural resource poor country. Despite the enormous investment in soil and water conservation measures (SWC or SLM), which are visible throughout the landscape, and the recognition of their benefits, their biophysical and socioeconomic impacts have been poorly assessed and scientifically documented. This paper contributes to filling this gap, by bringing together insights from literature and policy review, field survey and participatory assessment in the Ribeira Seca Watershed through a concerted approach devised by the DESIRE project (the “Desire approach”). Specifically, we analyze government strategies towards building resilience against the harsh conditions, analyze the state of land degradation and its drivers, survey and map the existing SWC measures, and assess their effectiveness against land degradation, on crop yield and people’s livelihood. We infer that the relative success of Cape Verde in tackling desertification and rural poverty owes to an integrated governance strategy that comprises raising awareness, institutional framework development, financial resource allocation, capacity building, and active participation of rural communities. We recommend that specific, scientific-based monitoring and assessment studies be carried out on the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of SLM and that the “Desire approach” be scaled-up to other watersheds in the country.