Cartels: the Probability of Getting Caught in the European Union. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 12/March 2008

In 1991, Bryant and Eckard estimated the annual probability that a cartel would be detected by the US Federal authorities, conditional on being detected, to be at most between 13 % and 17 %. 15 years later, we estimated the same probability over a European sample and we found an annual probability that falls between 12.9 % and 13.3 %. We also develop a detection model to clarify this probability. Our estimate is based on detection durations, calculated from data reported for all the cartels convicted by the European Commission from 1969 to the present date, and a statistical birth and death process model describing the onset and detection of cartels.

Considering DPRK [North Korea] Regime Collapse: Its Probability and Possible Geopolitical and Security Consequences. Security Policy Brief No. 66, August 2015

Both the EU and its member states are in a period of rethinking security strategy to adapt to contemporary challenges both in the European region and beyond, including Northeast Asia. In this Security Policy Brief, Mason Richey discusses what difficulties and risks a North Korean regime collapse would pose, the likelihood that it will occur sooner rather than later, and how Europe will be affected by such a scenario.

Integration of robotic inverse kinematic routines in an algorithmic 3D modeling software

An industrial manipulator equipped with an automatic clay extruder is used to realize a machine that can manufacture additively clay objects. The desired geometries are designed by means of a 3D modeling software and then sliced in a sequence of layers with the same thickness of the extruded clay section. The profiles of each layer are transformed in trajectories for the extruder and therefore for the end-effector of the manipulator. The goal of this thesis is to improve the algorithm for the inverse kinematic resolution and the integration of the routine within the development software that controls the machine (Rhino/Grasshopper). The kinematic model is described by homogeneous transformations, adopting the Denavit-Hartenberg standard convention. The function is implemented in C# and it has been preliminarily tested in Matlab. The outcome of this work is a substantial reduction of the computation time relative to the execution of the algorithm, which is halved.

RRREG: Stata module to estimate linear probability model for randomized response data

rrreg fits a linear probability model for randomized response data

WGTTEST: Stata module to test the impact of sampling weights in regression analysis

wgttest performs a test proposed by DuMouchel and Duncan (1983) to evaluate whether the weighted and unweighted estimates of a regression model are significantly different.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Optimum Design of Electromagnets for Magnetic Levitation of Transport Systems based on the Inverse Problem Solutions

Article is devoted to design of optimum electromagnets for magnetic levitation of transport systems. The method of electromagnets design based on the inverse problem solution of electrical equipment is offered. The method differs from known by introducing a stage of minimization the target functions providing the stated levitation force and magnetic induction in a gap, and also the mass of an electromagnet. Initial values of parameters are received, using approximate formulas of the theory of electric devices and electrical equipment. The example of realization of a method is given. The received results show its high efficiency at design. It is practical to use the offered method and the computer program realizing it as a part of system of the automated design of electric equipment for transport with a magnetic levitation.

Organic d13C values, kerogen atomic C/N ratios and relative weights of some kerogen pyrolysis products of ODP Hole 112-682A (Table 1)

Carbon isotopic composition of predominantly marine kerogen in latest Oligocene mudstones of the Peru Margin ODP 682A Hole shows an about 3.5? increase with decreasing age. Py-GC and elemental (C=N ratio) analysis of the kerogen plus sulphur isotopic study together with earlier knowledge on geological setting and organic geochemistry results in a better understanding of depositionary environment and allows to separation of the influence of concentration of water dissolved carbon dioxide (ce) on kerogen delta13C from that of other factors (bacterial degradation, sea surface temperature, DIC delta13C, productivity, and admixture of land plant OM). Based on this analysis, the major part of the kerogen shift is considered as a result of the latest Oligocene decrease of marine photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation in the Peru Margin photic zone, which in turn possibly reflects a simultaneous drop in atmospheric CO2 level. Uncertainties in the evaluation of the factors affecting the marine photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation and the extent of ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium do not permit calculation of the decrease of the atmospheric CO2.

Inverse and symmetrical voice: On languages with two transitive constructions

In voice and alignment typology, a categorical distinction is generally made between inverse systems on the one hand and symmetrical voice systems on the other. A major reason for distinguishing between these two types is the assumption that inverse systems are governed by a hierarchy involving grammatical, semantic, and ontological criteria, while symmetrical voice systems are based on discourse-pragmatic factors. However, the two types also have several important properties in common, in particular the fact that they have more than one nonderived transitive construction. Based on data from three native languages of South America, we show that the line between the two types is not always easy to draw, and that features of the inverse type can coexist with those of the symmetrical-voice type in the same language.

Testing the validity of the lognormal probability model : computer analysis of carbon monoxide data from U.S. cities /

Mode of access: Internet.

Probability sampling to measure pollution from rural land runoff /

Mode of access: Internet.

Social decision-making for high consequence, low probability occurences /

Oct. 1978.