Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Los grupos de interés y la presión medioambiental

[ES] Uno de los motivos de mayor peso que inducen a las organizaciones a la implantación de sistemas de gestión medioambiental es la presión ejercida por los grupos de interés. La investigación aporta resultados sobre cuál es la influencia de los grupos de interés sobre la gestión medioambiental. Con este fin hemos analizado 142 centros de negocio españoles, poseedores de los certificados ISO 14000 y/o EMAS, estableciendo la relación de los grupos de interés y su influencia con el modo en que se realiza en dichas organizaciones la gestión medioambiental.

Subcutaneous fat composition of youthful and mature Canadian beef: emphasis on individual conjugated linoleic acid and trans-18:1 isomers

[EN]A comprehensive evaluation of the fatty acid composition of subcutaneous adipose tissue from beef cattle produced in western Canada was undertaken to determine if the current Canadian grading system is able to distinguish classes of animals with value added potential due to their fatty acid composition. Grades included youthful Canadian Yield Grade 1 A/AA beef, under (YUTM) and over (YOTM) 30 mo of age and the four mature grades (D1, D2, D2 and D4). Subcutaneous fat between the 12th and 13th ribs over the longissimus muscle was obtained from 18_21 animals per grade. Fatty acids were analyzed using a combination of silver-ion HPLC and GC with a highly polar 100 m column. There were no differences in total trans-18:1 content amongst grades, but adipose tissue from grade D1, D2 and D4 had more 11t-18:1 than YUTM (PB0.05), whereas adipose tissue from YUTM carcasses had more 10t-18:1 than all other grades (PB0.05). Adipose tissue from YUTM carcasses also had less total CLA (PB0.05) than the D grades, mainly due to a lower level of 9c,11t-CLA, but they had slightly more 7t,9c-CLA and 10t,12c-CLA (PB0.05). Adipose tissue from YOTM and D grades contained more n-3 fatty acids relative to YUTM (0.56% vs. 0.29%; PB0.05) and lower n-6:n-3 ratios (PB0.05). Overall, older animals (YOTM and D grades) had adipose tissue compositions with higher levels of fatty acids with reported health benefits. Taken together, these higher levels may provide opportunities for value added marketing if regulatory authorities allow claims for their enrichment based on demonstrated health benefits. Higher concentrations of beneficial fatty acids, however, need to be considered within the context of the complete fatty acid profile and it would be important to demonstrate their advantages in the presence of relatively high levels of saturated fatty acids.

A imposição de limites ao exercício da liberdade individual como decorrência imediata da produção de normas de convívio

A coesão de organismos sociais humanos é mantida por meio da imposição de limites ao exercício do livre arbítrio por parte dos indivíduos e das coletividades de indivíduos que os integram e compõem. Esse objetivo é alcançado pela atuação de quatro mecanismos que se influenciam mutuamente: a ética, a moral, o direito e as convenções sociais decorrentes da assimilação de novos conhecimentos. Os limites impostos ao comportamento instituídos no âmbito desses mecanismos serão aplicados tanto ao relacionamento entre indivíduos como ao relacionamento entre comunidades e aos contatos entre estas e aqueles. Tais limites apresentarão algumas características comuns, qualquer que seja o meio onde se desenvolvam: a sensação de legitimidade com que são vistos pelos alcançados; a forma ao mesmo tempo universal e heterogênea por meio da qual se aplicam aos integrantes do meio social em que são estabelecidos; a presença de instrumentos de coerção a eles correlacionados; o caráter dinâmico que faz com que se encontrem em permanente mutação; e o fato de que constituem criações coletivas. Esses limites serão originados de procedimentos específicos para cada período, cultura ou espaço territorial em que se vejam implantados. Não serão permanentemente compatíveis com os valores do meio social no qual são instituídos, mas em todos os casos tenderão a evoluir no sentido de se ajustarem a esses valores. Desse último fenômeno resulta uma estreita vinculação entre o teor de juízos coletivos e o conteúdo dos limites estabelecidos pelo meio social para o comportamento humano, o que acarreta na errônea concepção de que sociedades distintas, por se fundarem em apreciações valorativas igualmente discrepantes, não apresentam traços em comum. Demonstrar que essa última conclusão se afasta da realidade, a partir da premissa de que em qualquer meio social se busca o estabelecimento de limites ao comportamento humano, constitui o objetivo central do presente estudo.

La familia Alberdi: ¿Puede una intervención de trabajo social individual-familiar contribuir al bienestar social de la comunidad?

Duración (en horas): De 11 a 20 horas. Destinatario: Estudiante y Docente

Report on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Event UMESE0501Sp: Multispecies Mass Stranding of Pilot Whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), Minke Whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), and Dwarf Sperm Whales (Kogia sima) in North Carolina on 15-16 January 2005

On 15-16 January 2005, three offshore species of cetaceans (33 short-finned pilot whales, Globicephala macrorhynchus, one minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata, and two dwarf sperm whales, Kogia sima) stranded alive on the beaches of North Carolina. The pilot whales stranded near Oregon Inlet, the minke whale in northern North Carolina, and the dwarf sperm whales near Cape Hatteras. Live strandings of three species in one weekend was unique in North Carolina and qualified as an Unusual Mortality Event. Gross necropsies were conducted on 16-17 January 2005 on 27 pilot whales, two dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Samples were collected for clinical pathology, parasitology, gross pathology, histopathology, microbiology and serology. There was variation in the number of animals sampled for each collection type, however, due to carcasses washing off the beach or degradation in carcass condition during the course of the response. Comprehensive histologic examination was conducted on 16 pilot whales, both dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Limited organ or only head tissue suites were obtained from nine pilot whales. Histologic examination of tissues began in February 2005 and concluded in December 2005 when final sampling was concluded. Neither the pilot whales nor dwarf sperm whales were emaciated although none had recently ingested prey in their stomachs. The minke whale was emaciated; it was likely a dependent calf that became separated from the female. Most serum biochemistry abnormalities appear to have resulted from the stranding and indicated deteriorating condition from being on land for an extended period. Three pilot whales had clinical evidence of pre-existing systemic inflammation, which was supported by histopathologic findings. Although gross and histologic lesions involving all organ systems were noted, consistent lesions were not observed across species. Verminous pterygoid sinusitis and healed fishery interactions were seen in pilot whales but neither of these changes were causes of debilitation or death. In three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale there was evidence of clinically significant disease in postcranial tissues which led to chronic debilitation. Cardiovascular disease was present in one pilot whale and one dwarf sperm whale; musculoskeletal disease and intra-abdominal granulomas were present in two pilot whales. These lesions were possible, but not definitive, causal factors in the stranding. Remaining lesions were incidental or post-stranding. The minke whale and three of five tested pilot whales had positive morbillivirus titers (≥1:8 with one at >1:256), but there was no histologic evidence of active viral infection. Parasites (nematodes, cestodes, and trematodes) were collected from 26 pilot whales and two dwarf sperm whales. Sites of collection included stomach, nasal/pterygoid, peribullar sinuses, blubber, and abdominal cavity. Parasite species, locations and loads were within normal limits for free-ranging cetaceans and were not considered causative for the stranding event. Gas emboli lesions which were considered consistent with or diagnostic of sonarassociated strandings of beaked whales or small cetaceans were not found in the whales stranded as part of UMESE0501Sp. Twenty-five heads were examined with nine specific anatomic locations of interest: extramandibular fat, intramandibular fat, auditory meatus, peribullar acoustic fat, peribullar soft tissue, peribullar sinus, pterygoid sinus, melon, and brain. The common finding in all examined heads was verminous pterygoid sinusitis. Intramandibular adipose tissue reddening, typically adjacent to the vascular plexus, was observed in some individuals and could represent localized hemorrhage resulting from vascular rete rupture, hypostatic congestion, or erythrocyte rupture during the freeze/thaw cycle. One cetacean had peracute to acute subdural hemorrhage that likely occurred from thrashing on the beach post-stranding, although its occurrence prior to stranding cannot be excluded. Information provided to NMFS by the U.S. Navy indicated routine tactical mid-frequency sonar operations from individual surface vessels over relatively short durations and small spatial scales within the area and time period investigated. No marine mammals were detected by marine mammal observers on operational vessels; standard operating procedure for surface naval vessels operating mid-frequency sonar is the use of trained visual lookouts using high-powered binoculars. Sound propagation modeling using information provided to NMFS indicated that acoustic conditions in the vicinity likely depended heavily on position of the receivers (e.g., range, bearing, depth) relative to that of the sources. Absent explicit information on the location of animals meant that it was not possible to estimate received acoustic exposures from active sonar transmissions. Nonetheless, the event was associated in time and space with naval activity using mid-frequency active sonar. It also had a number of features in common (e.g., the “atypical” distribution of strandings involving multiple offshore species, all stranding alive, and without evidence of common infectious or other disease process) with other sonar-related cetacean mass stranding events. Given that this event was the only stranding of offshore species to occur within a 2-3 day period in the region on record (i.e., a very rare event), and given the occurrence of the event simultaneously in time and space with a naval exercise using active sonar, the association between the naval sonar activity and the location and timing of the event could be a causal rather than a coincidental relationship. However, evidence supporting a definitive association is lacking, and, in particular, there are differences in operational/environmental characteristics between this event and previous events where sonar has apparently played a role in marine mammal strandings. This does not preclude behavorial avoidance of noise exposure. No harmful algal blooms were present along the Atlantic coast south of the Chesapeake Bay during the months prior to the event. Environmental conditions, including strong winds, changes in upwelling- to downwelling-favorable conditions, and gently sloping bathymetry, were consistent with conditions which have been correlated with other mass strandings. In summary, we did not find commonality in gross and histologic lesions that would indicate a single cause for this stranding event. Three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale had debilitating conditions identified that could have contributed to stranding, one pilot whale had a debilitating condition (subdural hemorrhage) that could have been present prior to or resulting from stranding. While the pilot and dwarf sperm whale strandings may have had a common cause, the minke whale stranding was probably just coincidental. On the basis of examination of physical evidence in the affected whales, however, we cannot definitively conclude that there was or was not a causal link between anthropogenic sonar activity or environmental conditions (or a combination of these factors) and the strandings. Overall, the cause of UMESE0501Sp in North Carolina is not and likely will not be definitively known. (PDF contains 240 pages)

Characterization of the benthos, marine debris and bottom fish at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Executive Summary: Baseline characterization of resources is an essential part of marine protected area (MPA) management and is critical to inform adaptive management. Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) currently lacks adequate characterization of several key resources as identified in the 2006 Final Management Plan. The objectives of this characterization were to fulfill this need by characterizing the bottom fish, benthic features, marine debris, and the relationships among them for the different bottom types within the sanctuary: ledges, sparse live bottom, rippled sand, and flat sand. Particular attention was given to characterizing the different ledge types, their fish communities, and the marine debris associated with them given the importance of this bottom type to the sanctuary. The characterization has been divided into four sections. Section 1 provides a brief overview of the project, its relevance to sanctuary needs, methods of site selection, and general field procedures. Section 2 provides the survey methods, results, discussion, and recommendations for monitoring specific to the benthic characterization. Section 3 describes the characterization of marine debris. Section 4 is specific to the characterization of bottom fish. Field surveys were conducted during August 2004, May 2005, and August 2005. A total of 179 surveys were completed over ledge bottom (n=92), sparse live bottom (n=51), flat sand (n=20), and rippled sand (n=16). There were three components to each field survey: fish counting, benthic assessment, and quantification of marine debris. All components occurred within a 25 x 4 m belt transect. Two divers performed the transect at each survey site. One diver was responsible for identification of fish species, size, and abundance using a visual survey. The second diver was responsible for characterization of benthic features using five randomly placed 1 m2 quadrats, measuring ledge height and other benthic structures, and quantifying marine debris within the entire transect. GRNMS is composed of four main bottom types: flat sand, rippled sand, sparsely colonized live bottom, and densely colonized live bottom (ledges). Independent evaluation of the thematic accuracy of the GRNMS benthic map produced by Kendall et al. (2005) revealed high overall accuracy (93%). Most discrepancies between map and diver classification occurred during August 2004 and likely can be attributed to several factors, including actual map or diver errors, and changes in the bottom type due to physical forces. The four bottom types have distinct physical and biological characteristics. Flat and rippled sand bottom types were composed primarily of sand substrate and secondarily shell rubble. Flat sand and rippled sand bottom types were characterized by low percent cover (0-2%) of benthic organisms at all sites. Although the sand bottom types were largely devoid of epifauna, numerous burrows indicate the presence of infaunal organisms. Sparse live bottom and ledges were colonized by macroalgae and numerous invertebrates, including coral, gorgonians, sponges, and “other” benthic species (such as tunicates, anemones, and bryozoans). Ledges and sparse live bottom were similar in terms of diversity (H’) given the level of classification used here. However, percent cover of benthic species, with the exception of gorgonians, was significantly greater on ledge than on sparse live bottom. Percent biotic cover at sparse live bottom ranged from 0.7-26.3%, but was greater than 10% at only 7 out of 51 sites. Colonization on sparse live bottom is likely inhibited by shifting sands, as most sites were covered in a layer of sediment up to several centimeters thick. On ledge bottom type, percent cover ranged from 0.42-100%, with the highest percent cover at ledges in the central and south-central region of GRNMS. Biotic cover on ledges is influenced by local ledge characteristics. Cluster analysis of ledge dimensions (total height, undercut height, undercut width) resulted in three main categories of ledges, which were classified as short, medium, and tall. Median total percent cover was 97.6%, 75.1%, and 17.7% on tall, medium, and short ledges, respectively. Total percent cover and cover of macroalgae, sponges, and other organisms was significantly lower on short ledges compared to medium and tall ledges, but did not vary significantly between medium and tall ledges. Like sparse live bottom, short ledges may be susceptible to burial by sand, however the results indicate that ledge height may only be important to a certain threshold. There are likely other factors not considered here that also influence spatial distribution and community structure (e.g., small scale complexity, ocean currents, differential settlement patterns, and biological interactions). GRNMS is a popular site for recreational fishing and boating, and there has been increased concern about the accumulation of debris in the sanctuary and potential effects on sanctuary resources. Understanding the types, abundance, and distribution of debris is essential to improving debris removal and education efforts. Approximately two-thirds of all observed debris items found during the field surveys were fishing gear, and about half of the fishing related debris was monofilament fishing line. Other fishing related debris included leaders and spear gun parts, and non-gear debris included cans, bottles, and rope. The spatial distribution of debris was concentrated in the center of the sanctuary and was most frequently associated with ledges rather than at other bottom types. Several factors may contribute to this observation. Ledges are often targeted by fishermen due to the association of recreationally important fish species with this bottom type. In addition, ledges are structurally complex and are often densely colonized by biota, providing numerous places for debris to become stuck or entangled. Analysis of observed boat locations indicated that higher boat activity, which is an indication of fishing, occurs in the center of the sanctuary. On ledges, the presence and abundance of debris was significantly related to observed boat density and physiographic features including ledge height, ledge area, and percent cover. While it is likely that most fishing related debris originates from boats inside the sanctuary, preliminary investigation of ocean current data indicate that currents may influence the distribution and local retention of more mobile items. Fish communities at GRNMS are closely linked to benthic habitats. A list of species encountered, probability of occurrence, abundance, and biomass by habitat is provided. Species richness, diversity, composition, abundance, and biomass of fish all showed striking differences depending on bottom type with ledges showing the highest values of nearly all metrics. Species membership was distinctly separated by bottom type as well, although very short, sparsely colonized ledges often had a similar community composition to that of sparse live bottom. Analysis of fish communities at ledges alone indicated that species richness and total abundance of fish were positively related to total percent cover of sessile invertebrates and ledge height. Either ledge attribute was sufficient to result in high abundance or species richness of fish. Fish diversity (H`) was negatively correlated with undercut height due to schools of fish species that utilize ledge undercuts such as Pareques species. Concurrent analysis of ledge types and fish communities indicated that there are five distinct combinations of ledge type and species assemblage. These include, 1) short ledges with little or no undercut that lacked many of the undercut associated species except Urophycis earlii ; 2) tall, heavily colonized, deeply undercut ledges typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Mycteroperca sp., and Pareques sp.; 3) tall, heavily colonized but less undercut with high occurrence of Lagodon rhomboides and Balistes capriscus; 4) short, heavily colonized ledges typically with Centropristis ocyurus, Halichoeres caudalis, and Stenotomus sp.; and 5) tall, heavily colonized, less undercut typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Caranx crysos and Seriola sp.. Higher levels of boating activity and presumably fishing pressure did not appear to influence species composition or abundance at the community level although individual species appeared affected. These results indicate that merely knowing the basic characteristics of a ledge such as total height, undercut width, and percent cover of sessile invertebrates would allow good prediction of not only species richness and abundance of fish but also which particular fish species assemblages are likely to occur there. Comparisons with prior studies indicate some major changes in the fish community at GRNMS over the last two decades although the causes of the changes are unknown. Species of interest to recreational fishermen including Centropristis striata, Mycteroperca microlepis, and Mycteroperca phenax were examined in relation to bottom features, areas of assumed high versus low fishing pressure, and spatial dispersion. Both Mycteroperca species were found more frequently when undercut height of ledges was taller. They often were found together in small mixed species groups at ledges in the north central and southwest central regions of the sanctuary. Both had lower mode size and proportion of fish above the fishery size limit in heavily fished areas of the sanctuary (i.e. high boat density) despite the presence of better habitat in that region. Black sea bass, C. striata, occurred at 98% of the ledges surveyed and appeared to be evenly distributed throughout the sanctuary. Abundance was best explained by a positive relationship with percent cover of sessile biota but was also negatively related to presence of either Mycteroperca species. This may be due to predation by the Mycteroperca species or avoidance of sites where they are present by C. striata. Suggestions for monitoring bottom features, marine debris, and bottom fish at GRNMS are provided at the end of each chapter. The present assessment has established quantitative baseline characteristics of many of the key resources and use issues at GRNMS. The methods can be used as a model for future assessments to track the trajectory of GRNMS resources. Belt transects are ideally suited to providing efficient and quantitative assessment of bottom features, debris, and fish at GRNMS. The limited visibility, sensitivity of sessile biota, and linear nature of ledge habitats greatly diminish the utility of other sampling techniques. Ledges should receive the bulk of future characterization effort due to their importance to the sanctuary and high variability in physical structure, benthic composition, and fish assemblages. (PDF contains 107 pages.)

Exploring Tangible Benefits of e-Learning: Does investment yield interest?

This publication summarises the outcomes of that work which was funded by the JISC Learning and Teaching Committee through its e-Learning Programme. The result is, we believe, a celebration of the diversity in the sector and shows the effectiveness of a range of approaches. Most importantly it shows that it is possible to address the thorny question of defining tangible benefits.

Habitat mapping effort at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary – Current status and future needs

With elevating interest to establish conservation efforts for groundfish stocks and continued scrutiny over the value of marine protected areas along the west coast, the importance of enhancing our knowledge of seabed characteristics through mapping activities is becoming increasingly more important, especially in a timely manner. Shortly after the inception of the Seabed Mapping Initiative instituted with the US Geological Survey (USGS), the National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) assembled a panel of habitat mapping experts. They determined that the status of existing data sets and future data acquisition needs varied widely among the individual sanctuaries and that more detailed site assessments were needed to better prioritize mapping efforts and outline an overall joint strategy. To assist with that specific effort and provide pertinent information for the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary’s (OCNMS) Management Plan Review, this report summarizes the mapping efforts that have taken place at the site to date; calculates a timeframe for completion of baseline mapping efforts when operating under current data acquisition limitations; describes an optimized survey strategy to dramatically reduce the required time to complete baseline surveying; and provides estimates for the needed vessel sea-days (DAS) to accomplish baseline survey completion within a 2, 5 and 10 year timeframe. (PDF contains 38 pages.)

Multi-species and multi-interest management: An ecosystem approach to market squid (Loligo opalescens) harvest in California

Market squid (Loligo opalescens) plays a vital role in the California ecosystem and serves as a major link in the food chain as both a predator and prey species. For over a century, market squid has also been harvested off the California coast from Monterey to San Pedro. Expanding global markets, coupled with a decline in squid product from other parts of the world, in recent years has fueled rapid expansion of the virtually unregulated California fishery. Lack of regulatory management, in combination with dramatic increases in fishing effort and landings, has raised numerous concerns from the scientific, fishing, and regulatory communities. In an effort to address these concerns, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) hosted a panel discussion at the October 1997 California Cooperative Oceanic and Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) Conference; it focused on ecosystem management implications for the burgeoning market squid fishery. Both panel and audience members addressed issues such as: the direct and indirect effects of commercial harvesting upon squid biomass; the effects of harvest and the role of squid in the broader marine community; the effects of environmental variation on squid population dynamics; the sustainability of the fishery from the point of view of both scientists and the fishers themselves; and the conservation management options for what is currently an open access and unregulated fishery. Herein are the key points of the ecosystem management panel discussion in the form of a preface, an executive summary, and transcript. (PDF contains 33 pages.)

A transferência de votos de candidatos para partidos e a barreira do “quociente eleitoral individual”

Consultoria Legislativa da Área XIX - Ciências Políticas, Sociologia Política, História, Relações Internacionais

Variation in size of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) within individual purse-seine sets

ENGLISH:Length-frequency samples of yellowfin tuna from 276 individual purse-seine sets were examined. Evidence of schooling by size is presented. Yellowfin schooled with skipjack are smaller and more homogeneous in length than are yellowfin from pure schools. Yellowfin in schools associated with porpoise appear to be more variable in size than yellowfin from other types of schools. No relationship was found between the tonnage of yellowfin in a school and the mean length of the yellowfin. Despite the tendency to school by size, the size variation within individual schools was judged to be enough to complicate greatly any program of regulation aimed at maximizing the yield-per-recruit through increasing the minimum size of yellowfin at first capture. SPANISH: Fueron examinadas las muestras frecuencia-longitud de atún aleta amarilla, de 276 lances individuales de redes de cerco. Se presenta la evidencia de agrupación por tamaños. Los atunes aleta amarilla agrupados con barrilete, son más pequeños y más homogéneos en longitud, que los atunes aleta amarilla de cardúmenes puros. El atún aleta amarilla en cardúmenes asociados con delfines parece ser más variable en tamaño, que el atún aleta amarilla proveniente de otros tipos de cardúmenes. No se encontró relac¡'ón entre el tonelaje del atún aleta amarilla en un cardumen y la longitud media de esta especie. A pesar de la tendencia a agruparse por tamaño, se juzgó, que la variación de tamaño en cardúmenes individuales, sería suficiente para complicar grandemente cualquier programa de reglamentación, dirigido a obtener el máximo del rendimiento por recluta a través del incremento del tamaño mínimo del atún aleta amarilla en la primera captura.

Valor social y ética del deporte

Ponencia invitado en el congreso internacional XII congreso AEISAD."El Factor Humano: Cuando la diferencia la marcan las personas" 25/10/2012 San Sebastián - Coeditado por: Juan Aldaz Arregui, Alberto Dorado Suárez, Pedro Jesús Jiménez Martín, Anna Vilanova Soler