Indian Ocean-monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts

Monsoon droughts over the Indian subcontinent emanate from failures in the seasonal (June-September) monsoon rains. While prolonged dry-spells ("monsoon-breaks'') pervade on sub-seasonal/intra-seasonal time-scales, the underlying causes for these long-lasting anomalies remain elusive. Based on analyses of a suite of observed data sets, we report an ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling on intra-seasonal time-scales, in the tropical Indian Ocean, which is pivotal in forcing extended monsoon-breaks and causing droughts over the subcontinent. This coupling involves a feedback between the monsoonal flow and thermocline depth in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO), in which an anomaly of the summer monsoon circulation induces downwelling and maintains a higher-than-normal heat-content. The near-equatorial anomalies induce strong and sustained suppression of monsoon rainfall over the subcontinent. It is concluded that the intra-seasonal evolution of the ocean-monsoon coupled system is a vital key to unlocking the dynamics of monsoon droughts.

Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region

During the second half of the twentieth century the Indian Ocean exhibited a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures (SST). It has been argued - largely on the basis of experiments with atmospheric GCMs - that this rapid warming was an important cause of remote changes in climate, in particular an increasing trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and decreases in African rainfall. Here however we present evidence that the Indian Ocean warming was associated with local increases in sea level pressure (SLP). These increases are inconsistent with results from experiments in which an atmospheric GCM is forced by historical SST, which show robust decreases in SLP. The clear discrepancy between the observed and simulated trends in SLP suggests that the response of some atmospheric GCMs to the Indian Ocean warming may not provide a reliable guide to the behaviour of the real world.

Flow structure and variability in the subtropical Indian Ocean: Instability of the South Indian Ocean Countercurrent

The origin of the eddy variability around the 25°S band in the Indian Ocean is investigated. We have found that the surface circulation east of Madagascar shows an anticyclonic subgyre bounded to the south by eastward flow from southwest Madagascar, and to the north by the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC) between 15° and 20°S. The shallow, eastward flowing South Indian Ocean Countercurrent (SICC) extends above the deep reaching, westward flowing SEC to 95°E around the latitude of the high variability band. Applying a two-layer model reveals that regions of large vertical shear along the SICC-SEC system are baroclinically unstable. Estimates of the frequencies (3.5–6 times/year) and wavelengths (290–470 km) of the unstable modes are close to observations of the mesoscale variability derived from altimetry data. It is likely then that Rossby wave variability locally generated in the subtropical South Indian Ocean by baroclinic instability is the origin of the eddy variability around 25°S as seen, for example, in satellite altimetry.

A link between low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability around Madagascar and the large-scale Indian Ocean variability

A connection is shown to exist between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993–2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar exhibit a significant interannual oscillation. This is related to the arrival of large-scale anomalies that propagate westward along 10°–15°S in response to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Positive (negative) SSH anomalies associated to a positive (negative) IOD phase induce a shift in the intensity and position of the tropical and subtropical gyres. A weakening (strengthening) results in the intensity of the South Equatorial Current and its branches along east Madagascar. In addition, the flow through the narrows of the Mozambique Channel around 17°S increases (decreases) during periods of a stronger and northward (southward) extension of the subtropical (tropical) gyre. Interaction between the currents in the narrows and southward propagating eddies from the northern Channel leads to interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy of the central Channel in phase with the one in the SSH-field.

Simulation of milk production by dairy cows fed sugarcane top-based diets with locally available supplements under Indian conditions

A model of sugarcane digestion was applied to indicate the suitability of various locally available supplements for enhancing milk production of Indian crossbred dairy cattle. Milk production was calculated according to simulated energy, lipogenic, glucogenic and aminogenic substrate availability. The model identified the most limiting substrate for milk production from different sugarcane-based diets. For sugarcane tops/urea fed alone, milk production was most limited by amino acid followed by long chain fatty acid availability. Among the protein-rich oil cake supplements at 100, 200 and 300 g supplement/kg total DM, cottonseed oil cake proved superior with a milk yield of 5.5, 7.3 and 8.3 kg/day, respectively. This was followed by mustard oil cake with 5.1, 6.5 and 7.6 kg/day, respectively. In the case of a protein-rich supplement (fish meal), milk yield was limited to 6.6 kg/day due to a shortage of long chain fatty acids. However, at 300 g of supplementation, energy became limiting, with a milk yield of 6.7 kg/day. Supplementation with rice bran and rice polishings at 100, 200 and 300 g restricted milk yield to 4.3, 4.9 and 5.5 and 4.5, 5.3 and 6.1 kg/day, respectively, and amino acids became the factor limiting milk production. The diet comprising basal sugarcane tops supplemented by leguminous fodder, dry fodder (e.g. rice or wheat straw) and concentrates at levels of 100, 200 and 300 g supplements/kg total diet DM proved to be the most balanced with a milk yield of 5.1, 6.7 and 9.0 kg/day, respectively.

Farming systems methodology for efficient resource management at the farm level: a review from an Indian perspective

Farming systems research is a multi-disciplinary holistic approach to solve the problems of small farms. Small and marginal farmers are the core of the Indian rural economy Constituting 0.80 of the total farming community but possessing only 0.36 of the total operational land. The declining trend of per capita land availability poses a serious challenge to the sustainability and profitability of farming. Under such conditions, it is appropriate to integrate land-based enterprises such as dairy, fishery, poultry, duckery, apiary, field and horticultural cropping within the farm, with the objective of generating adequate income and employment for these small and marginal farmers Under a set of farm constraints and varying levels of resource availability and Opportunity. The integration of different farm enterprises can be achieved with the help of a linear programming model. For the current review, integrated farming systems models were developed, by Way Of illustration, for the marginal, small, medium and large farms of eastern India using linear programming. Risk analyses were carried out for different levels of income and enterprise combinations. The fishery enterprise was shown to be less risk-prone whereas the crop enterprise involved greater risk. In general, the degree of risk increased with the increasing level of income. With increase in farm income and risk level, the resource use efficiency increased. Medium and large farms proved to be more profitable than small and marginal farms with higher level of resource use efficiency and return per Indian rupee (Rs) invested. Among the different enterprises of integrated farming systems, a chain of interaction and resource flow was observed. In order to make fanning profitable and improve resource use efficiency at the farm level, the synergy among interacting components of farming systems should be exploited. In the process of technology generation, transfer and other developmental efforts at the farm level (contrary to the discipline and commodity-based approaches which have a tendency to be piecemeal and in isolation), it is desirable to place a whole-farm scenario before the farmers to enhance their farm income, thereby motivating them towards more efficient and sustainable fanning.

Bias from farmer self-selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.

Urban mammals: what does the future hold? An analysis of the factors affecting patterns of use of residential gardens in Great Britain

1Urban areas are predicted to grow significantly in the foreseeable future because of increasing human population growth. Predicting the impact of urban development and expansion on mammal populations is of considerable interest due to possible effects on biodiversity and human-wildlife conflict. 2The British government has recently announced a substantial housing programme to meet the demands of its growing population and changing socio-economic profile. This is likely to result in the construction of high-density, low-cost housing with small residential gardens. To assess the potential effects of this programme, we analysed the factors affecting the current pattern of use of residential gardens by a range of mammal species using a questionnaire distributed in wildlife and gardening magazines and via The Mammal Society. 3Twenty-two species/species groups were recorded. However, the pattern of garden use by individual species was limited, with only six species/species groups (bats, red fox Vulpes vulpes, grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis, hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus, mice, voles) recorded as frequent visitors to > 20% of gardens in the survey. 4There was a high degree of association between the variables recorded in the study, such that it was difficult to quantify the effects of individual variables. However, all species/species groups appeared to be negatively affected by the increased fragmentation and reduced proximity of natural and semi-natural habitats, decreasing garden size and garden structure, but to differing degrees. Patterns of garden use were most clearly affected by house location (city, town, village, rural), with garden use declining with increasing urbanization for the majority of species/species groups, except red foxes and grey squirrels. Increasing urbanization is likely to be related to a wide range of interrelated factors, any or all of which may affect a range of mammal species. 5Overall, the probable effects of the planned housing development programme in Britain are not likely to be beneficial to mammal populations, although the pattern of use examined in this study may represent patterns of habitat selection by species rather than differences in distribution or abundance. Consequently, additional data are required on the factors affecting the density of species within urban environments.

Immigration, species radiation and extinction in a highly diverse songbird lineage: white-eyes on Indian Ocean islands

Molecular phylogenetic hypotheses of species-rich lineages in regions where geological history can be reliably inferred may provide insights into the scale of processes driving diversification. Here we sample all extant or recently extinct white-eye (Zosterops) taxa of the southwest Indian Ocean, combined with samples from all principal continental lineages. Results support a high dispersal capability, with at least two independent continental sources for white-eyes of the region. An early (within 1.8 million years ago) expansion into the Indian Ocean may have originated either from Asia or Africa; the three resulting lineages show a disparate distribution consistent with considerable extinction following their arrival. Africa is supported as the origin of a later expansion into the region (within 1.2 million years ago). On two islands, a pair of Zosterops species derived from independent immigrations into the Indian Ocean co-occur or may have formerly co-occurred, providing strong support for their origin by double-island colonization rather than within-island (sympatric or microallopatric) speciation. On Mauritius and La Reunion, phylogenetic placement of sympatric white-eyes allow us to rule out a scenario in which independent within-island speciation occurred on both islands; one of the species pairs must have arisen by double colonization, while the other pair is likely to have arisen by the same mechanism. Long-distance immigration therefore appears to be responsible for much of the region's white-eye diversity. Independent immigrations into the region have resulted in lineages with mutually exclusive distributions and it seems likely that competition with congeneric species, rather than arrival frequency, may limit present-day diversity.

Ventilation rates in schools and pupil’s performance using computerized assessment tests

Research shows that poor indoor air quality (IAQ) in school buildings can cause a reduction in the students’ performance assessed by short-term computer-based tests; whereas good air quality in classrooms can enhance children's concentration and also teachers’ productivity. Investigation of air quality in classrooms helps us to characterise pollutant levels and implement corrective measures. Outdoor pollution, ventilation equipment, furnishings, and human activities affect IAQ. In school classrooms, the occupancy density is high (1.8–2.4 m2/person) compared to offices (10 m2/person). Ventilation systems expend energy and there is a trend to save energy by reducing ventilation rates. We need to establish the minimum acceptable level of fresh air required for the health of the occupants. This paper describes a project, which will aim to investigate the effect of IAQ and ventilation rates on pupils’ performance and health using psychological tests. The aim is to recommend suitable ventilation rates for classrooms and examine the suitability of the air quality guidelines for classrooms. The air quality, ventilation rates and pupils’ performance in classrooms will be evaluated in parallel measurements. In addition, Visual Analogue Scales will be used to assess subjective perception of the classroom environment and SBS symptoms. Pupil performance will be measured with Computerised Assessment Tests (CAT), and Pen and Paper Performance Tasks while physical parameters of the classroom environment will be recorded using an advanced data logging system. A total number of 20 primary schools in the Reading area are expected to participate in the present investigation, and the pupils participating in this study will be within the age group of 9–11 years. On completion of the project, based on the overall data recommendations for suitable ventilation rates for schools will be formulated.