927 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency
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Despite the central role of quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the quantification of mRNA transcripts, most analyses of qPCR data are still delegated to the software that comes with the qPCR apparatus. This is especially true for the handling of the fluorescence baseline. This article shows that baseline estimation errors are directly reflected in the observed PCR efficiency values and are thus propagated exponentially in the estimated starting concentrations as well as 'fold-difference' results. Because of the unknown origin and kinetics of the baseline fluorescence, the fluorescence values monitored in the initial cycles of the PCR reaction cannot be used to estimate a useful baseline value. An algorithm that estimates the baseline by reconstructing the log-linear phase downward from the early plateau phase of the PCR reaction was developed and shown to lead to very reproducible PCR efficiency values. PCR efficiency values were determined per sample by fitting a regression line to a subset of data points in the log-linear phase. The variability, as well as the bias, in qPCR results was significantly reduced when the mean of these PCR efficiencies per amplicon was used in the calculation of an estimate of the starting concentration per sample.
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Syrian dry areas have been for several millennia a place of interaction between human populations and the environment. If environmental constraints and heterogeneity condition the human occupation and exploitation of resources, socio-political, economic and historical elements play a fundamental role. Since the late 1980s, Syrian dry areas are viewed as suffering a serious water crisis, due to groundwater overdraft. The Syrian administration and international development agencies believe that groundwater overexploitation is also leading to a decline of agricultural activities and to poverty increase. Action is thus required to address these problems.However, the overexploitation diagnosis needs to be reviewed. The overexploitation discourse appears in the context of Syria's opening to international organizations and to the market economy. It echoes the international discourse of "global water crisis". The diagnosis is based on national indicators recycling old Soviet data that has not been updated. In the post-Soviet era, the Syrian national water policy seems to abandon large surface water irrigation projects in favor of a strategy of water use rationalization and groundwater conservation in crisis regions, especially in the district of Salamieh.This groundwater conservation policy has a number of inconsistencies. It is justified for the administration and also probably for international donors, since it responds to an indisputable environmental emergency. However, efforts to conserve water are anecdotal or even counterproductive. The water conservation policy appears a posteriori as an extension of the national policy of food self-sufficiency. The dominant interpretation of overexploitation, and more generally of the water crisis, prevents any controversary approach of the status of resources and of the agricultural system in general and thus destroys any attempt to discuss alternatives with respect to groundwater management, allocation, and their inclusion in development programs.A revisited diagnosis of the situation needs to take into account spatial and temporal dimensions of the groundwater exploitation and to analyze the co-evolution of hydrogeological and agricultural systems. It should highlight the adjustments adopted to cope with environmental and economic variability, changes of water availability and regulatory measures enforcements. These elements play an important role for water availability and for the spatial, temporal, sectoral allocation of water resource. The groundwater exploitation in the last century has obviously had an impact on the environment, but the changes are not necessarily catastrophic.The current groundwater use in central Syria increases the uncertainty by reducing the ability of aquifers to buffer climatic changes. However, the climatic factor is not the only source of uncertainty. The high volatility of commodity prices, fuel, land and water, depending on the market but also on the will (and capacity) of the Syrian State to preserve social peace is a strong source of uncertainty. The research should consider the whole range of possibilities and propose alternatives that take into consideration the risks they imply for the water users, the political will to support or not the local access to water - thus involving a redefinition of the economic and social objectives - and finally the ability of international organizations to reconsider pre-established diagnoses.
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Bananal is an important focus of Schistosoma mansoni in the State of São Paulo. Accordingly, programmed active search for human cases, annual coproscopic surveys and treatment of infected cases were started in 1998, aiming at producing a sharp prevalence rate drop by the year 2000. S. mansoni eggs were searched for in two Kato-Katz slides per patient. Cases were followed up according to the routine of the local Family Health Program. In 1998, 130 samples out of 3,860 showed S. mansoni eggs; in 1999, 105 out of 3,550, and in 2000, 64 out of 3,528. Prevalence rates were 3.4%, 2.9%, and 1.8%, and average egg-counts 59, 64, and 79 eggs per gram of feces respectively. Prevalence rates decreased steadily after treatment, but persistently positive cases showed no significant decrease in parasite burdens. Egg count variation depended on sex and age bracket. Persistent residual cases admittedly preclude the eradication of this infection by only searching for and treating carriers. In addition, resistance to therapy and low sensitivity of fecal examinations, can not be ignored. Moderate to heavy worm burdens, frequently associated with hepatomegaly elsewhere, produced no serious cases in Bananal.
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Value for Money Report – The Efficiency and Effectiveness of Long-Stay Residential Care for Adults within the Mental Health Services Executive Summary and Contents PDF 164kb Chapters 1 and 2 – Introduction and Service Objectives PDF 504kb Chapter 3 plus annexes – Service Effectiveness and Efficiency PDF 3.7mb Chapter 4 – Service Resources PDF 2.4mb Chapters 5, 6 and 7 – Future Funding and Alternative Approaches, Key Performance Indicators, Conclusions and Recommendations PDF 2.4mb Appendices 1 to 6
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Report On Public Consultation: Efficiency And Effectiveness Of Disability Services In Ireland Click here to download PDF 1.67MB Other Relevant Documents: Click here to download Appendix A PDF 1.06MB Click here to download Summary of Key Proposals from The Review of Disability Policy PDF 250KB
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Summary : Division of labour is one of the most fascinating aspects of social insects. The efficient allocation of individuals to a multitude of different tasks requires a dynamic adjustment in response to the demands of a changing environment. A considerable number of theoretical models have focussed on identifying the mechanisms allowing colonies to perform efficient task allocation. The large majority of these models are built on the observation that individuals in a colony vary in their propensity (response threshold) to perform different tasks. Since individuals with a low threshold for a given task stimulus are more likely to perform that task than individuals with a high threshold, infra-colony variation in individual thresholds results in colony division of labour. These theoretical models suggest that variation in individual thresholds is affected by the within-colony genetic diversity. However, the models have not considered the genetic architecture underlying the individual response thresholds. This is important because a better understanding of division of labour requires determining how genotypic variation relates to differences in infra-colony response threshold distributions. In this thesis, we investigated the combined influence on task allocation efficiency of both, the within-colony genetic variability (stemming from variation in the number of matings by queens) and the number of genes underlying the response thresholds. We used an agent-based simulator to model a situation where workers in a colony had to perform either a regulatory task (where the amount of a given food item in the colony had to be maintained within predefined bounds) or a foraging task (where the quantity of a second type of food item collected had to be the highest possible). The performance of colonies was a function of workers being able to perform both tasks efficiently. To study the effect of within-colony genetic diversity, we compared the performance of colonies with queens mated with varying number of males. On the other hand, the influence of genetic architecture was investigated by varying the number of loci underlying the response threshold of the foraging and regulatory tasks. Artificial evolution was used to evolve the allelic values underlying the tasks thresholds. The results revealed that multiple matings always translated into higher colony performance, whatever the number of loci encoding the thresholds of the regulatory and foraging tasks. However, the beneficial effect of additional matings was particularly important when the genetic architecture of queens comprised one or few genes for the foraging task's threshold. By contrast, higher number of genes encoding the foraging task reduced colony performance with the detrimental effect being stronger when queens had mated with several males. Finally, the number of genes determining the threshold for the regulatory task only had a minor but incremental effect on colony performance. Overall, our numerical experiments indicate the importance of considering the effects of queen mating frequency, genetic architecture underlying task thresholds and the type of task performed when investigating the factors regulating the efficiency of division of labour in social insects. In this thesis we also investigate the task allocation efficiency of response threshold models and compare them with neural networks. While response threshold models are widely used amongst theoretical biologists interested in division of labour in social insects, our simulation reveals that they perform poorly compared to a neural network model. A major shortcoming of response thresholds is that they fail at one of the most crucial requirement of division of labour, the ability of individuals in a colony to efficiently switch between tasks under varying environmental conditions. Moreover, the intrinsic properties of the threshold models are that they lead to a large proportion of idle workers. Our results highlight these limitations of the response threshold models and provide an adequate substitute. Altogether, the experiments presented in this thesis provide novel contributions to the understanding of how division of labour in social insects is influenced by queen mating frequency and genetic architecture underlying worker task thresholds. Moreover, the thesis also provides a novel model of the mechanisms underlying worker task allocation that maybe more generally applicable than the widely used response threshold models. Resumé : La répartition du travail est l'un des aspects les plus fascinants des insectes vivant en société. Une allocation efficace de la multitude de différentes tâches entre individus demande un ajustement dynamique afin de répondre aux exigences d'un environnement en constant changement. Un nombre considérable de modèles théoriques se sont attachés à identifier les mécanismes permettant aux colonies d'effectuer une allocation efficace des tâches. La grande majorité des ces modèles sont basés sur le constat que les individus d'une même colonie diffèrent dans leur propension (inclination à répondre) à effectuer différentes tâches. Etant donné que les individus possédant un faible seuil de réponse à un stimulus associé à une tâche donnée sont plus disposés à effectuer cette dernière que les individus possédant un seuil élevé, les différences de seuils parmi les individus vivant au sein d'une même colonie mènent à une certaine répartition du travail. Ces modèles théoriques suggèrent que la variation des seuils des individus est affectée par la diversité génétique propre à la colonie. Cependant, ces modèles ne considèrent pas la structure génétique qui est à la base des seuils de réponse individuels. Ceci est très important car une meilleure compréhension de la répartition du travail requière de déterminer de quelle manière les variations génotypiques sont associées aux différentes distributions de seuils de réponse à l'intérieur d'une même colonie. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous étudions l'influence combinée de la variabilité génétique d'une colonie (qui prend son origine dans la variation du nombre d'accouplements des reines) avec le nombre de gènes supportant les seuils de réponse, vis-à-vis de la performance de l'allocation des tâches. Nous avons utilisé un simulateur basé sur des agents pour modéliser une situation où les travailleurs d'une colonie devaient accomplir une tâche de régulation (1a quantité d'une nourriture donnée doit être maintenue à l'intérieur d'un certain intervalle) ou une tâche de recherche de nourriture (la quantité d'une certaine nourriture doit être accumulée autant que possible). Dans ce contexte, 'efficacité des colonies tient en partie des travailleurs qui sont capable d'effectuer les deux tâches de manière efficace. Pour étudier l'effet de la diversité génétique d'une colonie, nous comparons l'efficacité des colonies possédant des reines qui s'accouplent avec un nombre variant de mâles. D'autre part, l'influence de la structure génétique a été étudiée en variant le nombre de loci à la base du seuil de réponse des deux tâches de régulation et de recherche de nourriture. Une évolution artificielle a été réalisée pour évoluer les valeurs alléliques qui sont à l'origine de ces seuils de réponse. Les résultats ont révélé que de nombreux accouplements se traduisaient toujours en une plus grande performance de la colonie, quelque soit le nombre de loci encodant les seuils des tâches de régulation et de recherche de nourriture. Cependant, les effets bénéfiques d'accouplements additionnels ont été particulièrement important lorsque la structure génétique des reines comprenait un ou quelques gènes pour le seuil de réponse pour la tâche de recherche de nourriture. D'autre part, un nombre plus élevé de gènes encodant la tâche de recherche de nourriture a diminué la performance de la colonie avec un effet nuisible d'autant plus fort lorsque les reines s'accouplent avec plusieurs mâles. Finalement, le nombre de gènes déterminant le seuil pour la tâche de régulation eu seulement un effet mineur mais incrémental sur la performance de la colonie. Pour conclure, nos expériences numériques révèlent l'importance de considérer les effets associés à la fréquence d'accouplement des reines, à la structure génétique qui est à l'origine des seuils de réponse pour les tâches ainsi qu'au type de tâche effectué au moment d'étudier les facteurs qui régulent l'efficacité de la répartition du travail chez les insectes vivant en communauté. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'efficacité de l'allocation des tâches des modèles prenant en compte des seuils de réponses, et les comparons à des réseaux de neurones. Alors que les modèles basés sur des seuils de réponse sont couramment utilisés parmi les biologistes intéressés par la répartition des tâches chez les insectes vivant en société, notre simulation montre qu'ils se révèlent peu efficace comparé à un modèle faisant usage de réseaux de neurones. Un point faible majeur des seuils de réponse est qu'ils échouent sur un point crucial nécessaire à la répartition des tâches, la capacité des individus d'une colonie à commuter efficacement entre des tâches soumises à des conditions environnementales changeantes. De plus, les propriétés intrinsèques des modèles basés sur l'utilisation de seuils conduisent à de larges populations de travailleurs inactifs. Nos résultats mettent en évidence les limites de ces modèles basés sur l'utilisation de seuils et fournissent un substitut adéquat. Ensemble, les expériences présentées dans cette thèse fournissent de nouvelles contributions pour comprendre comment la répartition du travail chez les insectes vivant en société est influencée par la fréquence d'accouplements des reines ainsi que par la structure génétique qui est à l'origine, pour un travailleur, du seuil de réponse pour une tâche. De plus, cette thèse fournit également un nouveau modèle décrivant les mécanismes qui sont à l'origine de l'allocation des tâches entre travailleurs, mécanismes qui peuvent être appliqué de manière plus générale que ceux couramment utilisés et basés sur des seuils de réponse.
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Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.
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We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]
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Introduction The flexible derotator is one of the therapeutic resources used to combat primary and secondary abnormalities in walking cerebral palsy children. It was developed to reduce abnormal femoral and tibial torsions and lessen the latter's negative functional impact. Objective To determine the effect of wearing a flexible derotator on anatomic and functional parameters in walking cerebral palsy children. Methods We performed a retrospective study of walking cerebral palsy children by gathering data on bone-related parameters (femoral and tibial torsion) and functional parameters (distance and speed gait, and the energy expenditure index (EEI)). Fifteen walking cerebral palsy children were treated with the flexible derotator for one year and 15 untreated walking cerebral palsy children were included as controls. The two groups were compared in terms of the various parameters' change over time between the initial examination (the last examination prior to the start of the study or prior to use of the flexible derotator) and the final examination (after one year of follow-up). Results Right femoral anteversion and right and left external tibial torsion improved. There was a significant increase in distance and speed gait and a decrease in the EEI in walking cerebral palsy children. Conclusion Our retrospective study revealed a significant improvement in functional parameters in children with cerebral palsy, as a result of wearing the flexible derotator for at least 6 hours a day for a year. Bone parameters only improved slightly. Use of the flexible derotator could improve these children's quality of life.
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Among the PAH class of compounds, high molecular weight PAH are now considered as relevant cancer inducers, but not all of them have the same biological activity. However, their analysis is difficult, mainly due to the presence of numerous isomers and due to their low volatility. Retention indices (Ri) for 13 dibenzopyrenes and homologues were determined by high-resolution capillary gas chromatography (GC) with four different stationary phases: a 5% phenyl-substituted methylpolysiloxane column (DB-5 ms), a 35% phenyl-substituted methylpolysiloxane column (BPX-35), a 50% phenyl-substituted methylpolysiloxane column (BPX-50), and a 35% trifluoropropylmethyl polysiloxane stationary phase (Rtx-200). Correlations for retention on each phase were investigated by using 8 independent molecular descriptors. Ri has been shown to be linearly correlated to PAH volume, polarisability alpha, Hückel-pi energy on the four examined columns. Ionisation potential Ip is a fourth variable which improves the regression model for DB-5ms, BPX-35, and BPX-50 column. Correlation coefficients ranging from r2 = 0.935 to r2 = 0.952 are then observed. Application of these indices to the identification and quantification of PAH with MW 302 in certified diesel particulate matter SRM 1650a is presented and discussed. [Authors]
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BACKGROUND: Advances in nebulizer design have produced both ultrasonic nebulizers and devices based on a vibrating mesh (vibrating mesh nebulizers), which are expected to enhance the efficiency of aerosol drug therapy. The aim of this study was to compare 4 different nebulizers, of 3 different types, in an in vitro model using albuterol delivery and physical characteristics as benchmarks. METHODS: The following nebulizers were tested: Sidestream Disposable jet nebulizer, Multisonic Infra Control ultrasonic nebulizer, and the Aerogen Pro and Aerogen Solo vibrating mesh nebulizers. Aerosol duration, temperature, and drug solution osmolality were measured during nebulization. Albuterol delivery was measured by a high-performance liquid chromatography system with fluorometric detection. The droplet size distribution was analyzed with a laser granulometer. RESULTS: The ultrasonic nebulizer was the fastest device based on the duration of nebulization; the jet nebulizer was the slowest. Solution temperature decreased during nebulization when the jet nebulizer and vibrating mesh nebulizers were used, but it increased with the ultrasonic nebulizer. Osmolality was stable during nebulization with the vibrating mesh nebulizers, but increased with the jet nebulizer and ultrasonic nebulizer, indicating solvent evaporation. Albuterol delivery was 1.6 and 2.3 times higher with the ultrasonic nebulizer and vibrating mesh nebulizers devices, respectively, than with the jet nebulizer. Particle size was significantly higher with the ultrasonic nebulizer. CONCLUSIONS: The in vitro model was effective for comparing nebulizer types, demonstrating important differences between nebulizer types. The new devices, both the ultrasonic nebulizers and vibrating mesh nebulizers, delivered more aerosolized drug than traditional jet nebulizers.
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Rubidium chloride (RbCl) has been used for the study of vector biology and behavior, although the efficacy of marking, egg production, and survivorship of marked females have been poorly studied. Four concentrations of RbCl were tested, among which 0.025 M was the best for marking Aedes albopictus: more than 80% of egg batches of females fed once with blood containing RbCl were marked; Rb-marked egg batches, interspersed with non marked ones were recovered until 61 days after a blood meal containing RbCl followed by non marked meals; RbCl was essentially detected in the abdomen of marked females, whose egg production and survivorship did not differ from non marked ones, at least in the three weeks following the Rb-marked blood meal.
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In most initiatives to publish Open Educational Resources (OER), the production of OER is the activity with the highest costs. Based on literature and personal experiences a list of relevant characteristics of production processes for OER are determined. Three cases are compared with each other on these characteristics. Most influence on costs are human costs and the type of OER created.
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In this report, the efficiency of Adultrap under field conditions is compared to a CDC backpack aspirator and to MosquiTRAP. An urban dengue-endemic area of Rio de Janeiro was selected to evaluate the efficiency of mosquito traps in capturing Aedes aegypti females. Adultrap and aspirator captured similar numbers of Ae. aegypti females, with the former showing high specificity to gravid individuals (93.6%). A subsequent mark-release-recapture experiment was conducted to evaluate Adultrap and MosquiTRAP efficiency concomitantly. With a 6.34% recapture rate, MosquiTRAP captured a higher mean number of female Ae. aegypti per trap than Adultrap (Ç2 = 14.26; df = 1; p < 0,05). However, some MosquiTRAPs (28.12%) contained immature Ae. aegypti after 18 days of exposure in the field and could be pointed as an oviposition site for female mosquitoes. Both trapping methods, designed to collect gravid Ae. aegypti females, seem to be efficient, reliable and may aid routine Ae. aegypti surveillance.
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Cervical cancer results from cervical infection by human papillomaviruses (HPVs), especially HPV16. An effective vaccine against these HPVs is expected to have a dramatic impact on the incidence of this cancer and its precursor lesions. The leading candidate, a subunit prophylactic HPV virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine, can protect women from HPV infection. An alternative improved vaccine that avoids parenteral injection, that is efficient with a single dose, and that induces mucosal immunity might greatly facilitate vaccine implementation in different settings. In this study, we have constructed a new generation of recombinant Salmonella organisms that assemble HPV16 VLPs and induce high titers of neutralizing antibodies in mice after a single nasal or oral immunization with live bacteria. This was achieved through the expression of a HPV16 L1 capsid gene whose codon usage was optimized to fit with the most frequently used codons in Salmonella. Interestingly, the high immunogenicity of the new recombinant bacteria did not correlate with an increased expression of L1 VLPs but with a greater stability of the L1-expressing plasmid in vitro and in vivo in absence of antibiotic selection. Anti-HPV16 humoral and neutralizing responses were also observed with different Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strains whose attenuating deletions have already been shown to be safe after oral vaccination of humans. Thus, our findings are a promising improvement toward a vaccine strain that could be tested in human volunteers.