970 resultados para generic exponential family duration modeling


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Due to rapidly diminishing international supplies of fossil fuels, such as petroleum and diesel, the cost of fuel is constantly increasing, leading to higher costs of living, as a result of the significant reliance of many industries on motor vehicles. Many technologies have been developed to replace part or all of a fossil fuel with bio-fuels. One of the dual fuel technologies is fumigation of ethanol in diesel engines, which injects ethanol into the intake air stream of the engine. The advantage of this is that it avoids any costly modification of the engine high pressure diesel injection system, while reducing the volume of diesel required and potentially increasing the power output and efficiency. This paper investigates the performance of a diesel engine, converted to implement ethanol fumigation. The project will use both existing experimental data, along with generating computer modeled results using the program AVL Boost. The data from both experiments and the numerical simulation indicate desirable results for the peak pressure and the indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP). Increase in ethanol substitution resulted in elevated combustion pressure and an increase in the IMEP, while the variation of ethanol injection location resulted in negligible change. These increases in cylinder pressure led to a higher work output and total efficiency in the engine as the ethanol substitution was increased. In comparing the numerical and experimental results, the simulation showed a slight elevation, due to the inaccuracies in the heat release models. Future work is required to improve the combustion model and investigate the effect of the variation of the location of ethanol injection.

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Perflurooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) have been used for a variety of applications including fluoropolymer processing, fire-fighting foams and surface treatments since the 1950s. Both PFOS and PFOA are polyfluoroalkyl chemicals (PFCs), man-made compounds that are persistent in the environment and humans; some PFCs have shown adverse effects in laboratory animals. Here we describe the application of a simple one compartment pharmacokinetic model to estimate total intakes of PFOA and PFOS for the general population of urban areas on the east coast of Australia. Key parameters for this model include the elimination rate constants and the volume of distribution within the body. A volume of distribution was calibrated for PFOA to a value of 170ml/kgbw using data from two communities in the United States where the residents' serum concentrations could be assumed to result primarily from a known and characterized source, drinking water contaminated with PFOA by a single fluoropolymer manufacturing facility. For PFOS, a value of 230ml/kgbw was used, based on adjustment of the PFOA value. Applying measured Australian serum data to the model gave mean+/-standard deviation intake estimates of PFOA of 1.6+/-0.3ng/kgbw/day for males and females >12years of age combined based on samples collected in 2002-2003 and 1.3+/-0.2ng/kg bw/day based on samples collected in 2006-2007. Mean intakes of PFOS were 2.7+/-0.5ng/kgbw/day for males and females >12years of age combined based on samples collected in 2002-2003, and 2.4+/-0.5ng/kgbw/day for the 2006-2007 samples. ANOVA analysis was run for PFOA intake and demonstrated significant differences by age group (p=0.03), sex (p=0.001) and date of collection (p<0.001). Estimated intake rates were highest in those aged >60years, higher in males compared to females, and higher in 2002-2003 compared to 2006-2007. The same results were seen for PFOS intake with significant differences by age group (p<0.001), sex (p=0.001) and date of collection (p=0.016).

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This paper presents two novel nonlinear models of u-shaped anti-roll tanks for ships, and their linearizations. In addition, a third simplified nonlinear model is presented. The models are derived using Lagrangian mechanics. This formulation not only simplifies the modeling process, but also allows one to obtain models that satisfy energy-related physical properties. The proposed nonlinear models and their linearizations are validated using model-scale experimental data. Unlike other models in the literature, the nonlinear models in this paper are valid for large roll amplitudes. Even at moderate roll angles, the nonlinear models have three orders of magnitude lower mean square error relative to experimental data than the linear models.

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We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

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Process models are usually depicted as directed graphs, with nodes representing activities and directed edges control flow. While structured processes with pre-defined control flow have been studied in detail, flexible processes including ad-hoc activities need further investigation. This paper presents flexible process graph, a novel approach to model processes in the context of dynamic environment and adaptive process participants’ behavior. The approach allows defining execution constraints, which are more restrictive than traditional ad-hoc processes and less restrictive than traditional control flow, thereby balancing structured control flow with unstructured ad-hoc activities. Flexible process graph focuses on what can be done to perform a process. Process participants’ routing decisions are based on the current process state. As a formal grounding, the approach uses hypergraphs, where each edge can associate any number of nodes. Hypergraphs are used to define execution semantics of processes formally. We provide a process scenario to motivate and illustrate the approach.

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It is now possible to combine the use of preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) and tissue matching to select an IVF embryo that will, after birth, be a compatible tissue donor for an existing individual. This article analyses the ethical issues and the regulatory frameworks that intersect around the creation of tissue compatible children.

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Lean construction and building information modeling (BIM) are quite different initiatives, but both are having profound impacts on the construction industry. A rigorous analysis of the myriad specific interactions between them indicates that a synergy exists which, if properly understood in theoretical terms, can be exploited to improve construction processes beyond the degree to which it might be improved by application of either of these paradigms independently. Using a matrix that juxtaposes BIM functionalities with prescriptive lean construction principles, 56 interactions have been identified, all but four of which represent constructive interaction. Although evidence for the majority of these has been found, the matrix is not considered complete but rather a framework for research to explore the degree of validity of the interactions. Construction executives, managers, designers, and developers of information technology systems for construction can also benefit from the framework as an aid to recognizing the potential synergies when planning their lean and BIM adoption strategies.

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Unstable density-driven flow can lead to enhanced solute transport in groundwater. Only recently has the complex fingering pattern associated with free convection been documented in field settings. Electrical resistivity (ER) tomography has been used to capture a snapshot of convective instabilities at a single point in time, but a thorough transient analysis is still lacking in the literature. We present the results of a 2 year experimental study at a shallow aquifer in the United Arab Emirates that was designed to specifically explore the transient nature of free convection. ER tomography data documented the presence of convective fingers following a significant rainfall event. We demonstrate that the complex fingering pattern had completely disappeared a year after the rainfall event. The observation is supported by an analysis of the aquifer halite budget and hydrodynamic modeling of the transient character of the fingering instabilities. Modeling results show that the transient dynamics of the gravitational instabilities (their initial development, infiltration into the underlying lower-density groundwater, and subsequent decay) are in agreement with the timing observed in the time-lapse ER measurements. All experimental observations and modeling results are consistent with the hypothesis that a dense brine that infiltrated into the aquifer from a surficial source was the cause of free convection at this site, and that the finite nature of the dense brine source and dispersive mixing led to the decay of instabilities with time. This study highlights the importance of the transience of free convection phenomena and suggests that these processes are more rapid than was previously understood.

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The issue of how individual patients and their doctors should act in relation to the knowledge that the patient has a genetic condition— specifically, whether the patient and/or the doctor should or must inform relevant members of the patient’s family—is a looming area of medicolegal controversy. Over the last fifteen years or so, the issue of confidentiality versus disclosure has been particularly controversial in relation to HIV/AIDS patients.1 It has been argued that medical information about genetic disease gives rise to special problems vis-à-vis blood relatives. Because genetic disease is transmitted only by way of procreation, information about genetic disease is unique in that there is a propensity (which is highly variable and depends upon a variety of factors) for the condition to be shared by members of a family who are biologically related. Thus, genetic information about an individual may reveal information about relatives of that individual which is ‘specific (that the person has or will develop a genetic disease); or predictive (that the person has an unspecified risk of developing the disease)’

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Designing systems for multiple stakeholders requires frequent collaboration with multiple stakeholders from the start. In many cases at least some stakeholders lack a professional habit of formal modeling. We report observations from two case studies of stakeholder-involvement in early design where non-formal techniques supported strong collaboration resulting in deep understanding of requirements and of the feasibility of solutions.

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Conceptual modeling is an important tool for understanding and revealing weaknesses of business processes. Yet, the current practice in reengineering projects often considers simply the as-is process model as a brain-storming tool. This approach heavily relies on the intuition of the participants and misses a clear description of the quality requirements. Against this background, we identify four generic quality categories of business process quality, and populate them with quality requirements from related research. We refer to the resulting framework as the Quality of Business Process (QoBP) framework. Furthermore, we present the findings from applying the QoBP framework in a case study with a major Australian bank, showing that it helps to systematically fill the white space between as-is and to-be process modeling.

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Process choreographies describe interactions between different business partners and the dependencies between these interactions. While different proposals were made for capturing choreographies at an implementation level, it remains unclear how choreographies should be described on a conceptual level.While the Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN) is already in use for describing choreographies in terms of interconnected interface behavior models, this paper will introduce interaction modeling using BPMN. Such interaction models do not suffer from incompatibility issues and are better suited for human modelers. BPMN extensions are proposed and a mapping from interaction models to interface behavior models is presented.

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This paper presents a novel framework to further advance the recent trend of using query decomposition and high-order term relationships in query language modeling, which takes into account terms implicitly associated with different subsets of query terms. Existing approaches, most remarkably the language model based on the Information Flow method are however unable to capture multiple levels of associations and also suffer from a high computational overhead. In this paper, we propose to compute association rules from pseudo feedback documents that are segmented into variable length chunks via multiple sliding windows of different sizes. Extensive experiments have been conducted on various TREC collections and our approach significantly outperforms a baseline Query Likelihood language model, the Relevance Model and the Information Flow model.

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Background Interventions to promote physical activity (PA) in children attending family child care homes (FCCHs) require valid, yet practical, measurement tools. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of two proxy report instruments designed to measure PA in children attending FCCHs. Methods A sample of 37 FCCH providers completed the Burdette parent proxy report, modified for the family child care setting for 107 children 3.4±1.2 years of age. A second sample of 42 FCCH providers completed the Harro parent and teacher proxy report, modified for the family child care setting, for 131 children 3.8±1.3 years of age. Both proxy reports were assessed for validity using accelerometry as a criterion measure. Results Significant positive correlations were observed between provider-reported PA scores from the modified Burdette proxy report and objectively measured total PA (r=0.30; p<0.01) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA; r=0.34; p<0.01). Across levels of provider-reported PA, both total PA and MVPA increased significantly in a linear dose-response fashion. The modified Harro proxy report was not associated with objectively measured PA. Conclusion Proxy PA reports completed by family child care providers may be a valid assessment option in studies where more burdensome objective measures are not feasible.

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Background Family child care homes (FCCHs) are the second-largest provider of nonrelative care in the U.S. However, despite providing care for nearly 1.9 million children aged <5 years, little is known about the nutrition and physical activity practices of FCCHs. Purpose To address this gap, this study aims to describe policies and practices related to nutrition and physical activity in a representative sample of FCCHs. Methods A stratified random sample of registered FCCHs operating in Kansas (N=297) completed the Nutrition and Physical Activity Self Assessment for Child Care (NAPSACC) instrument. Prevalence estimates and 95% CIs for meeting or exceeding accepted child care standards were calculated using SAS PROC SURVEYFREQ. Results Most providers either met or exceeded child care standards related to serving fruit and vegetables and provision of daily physical activity. Very few providers reported serving fried meats or vegetables or unhealthy snack foods on a regular basis. Areas of concern included infrequent servings of low-fat milk, frequent use of unhealthy foods for celebrations, widespread use of TV and video games throughout the day, restricting physical activity for children who misbehave, and lack of appropriate indoor spaces for physical activity. Only a small percentage of providers reported receiving regular training in nutrition or physical activity. Relatively few providers had written guidelines on nutrition or physical activity. Conclusions Some strengths were exhibited by FCCHs, but substantial weaknesses were shown with respect to meeting established child care standards for nutrition and physical activity. Interventions to promote healthy eating and regular physical activity in FCCHs are thus warranted.