Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

The "Shackleton Site" (IODP Site U1385) on the Iberian Margin

Nick Shackleton’s research on piston cores from the Iberian margin highlighted the importance of this region for providing high-fidelity records of millennial-scale climate variability, and for correlating climate events from the marine environment to polar ice cores and European terrestrial sequences. During the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 339, we sought to extend the Iberian margin sediment record by drilling with the D/V JOIDES Resolution. Five holes were cored at Site U1385 using the advanced piston corer (APC) system to a maximum depth of ∼ 155.9 m below sea floor (m b.s.f.). Immediately after the expedition, cores from all holes were analyzed by core scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) at 1 cm spatial resolution. Ca/Ti data were used to accurately correlate from hole-to-hole and construct a composite spliced section, containing no gaps or disturbed intervals to 166.5 m composite depth (mcd). A low-resolution (20 cm sample spacing) oxygen isotope record confirms that Site U1385 contains a continuous record of hemipelagic sedimentation from the Holocene to 1.43 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 46). The sediment profile at Site U1385 extends across the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) with sedimentation rates averaging ∼ 10 cm kyr−1. Strongprecession cycles in colour and elemental XRF signals provide a powerful tool for developing an orbitally tuned reference timescale. Site U1385 is likely to become an important type section for marine–ice–terrestrial core correlations and the study of orbital- and millennial-scale climate variability.

Quantitative estimation of bioturbation based on digital image analysis

Quantitative determination of modification of primary sediment features, by the activity of organisms (i.e., bioturbation) is essential in geosciences. Some methods proposed since the 1960s are mainly based on visual or subjective determinations. The first semiquantitative evaluations of the Bioturbation Index, Ichnofabric Index, or the amount of bioturbation were attempted, in the best cases using a series of flashcards designed in different situations. Recently, more effective methods involve the use of analytical and computational methods such as X-rays, magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography; these methods are complex and often expensive. This paper presents a compilation of different methods, using Adobe® Photoshop® software CS6, for digital estimation that are a part of the IDIAP (Ichnological Digital Analysis Images Package), which is an inexpensive alternative to recently proposed methods, easy to use, and especially recommended for core samples. The different methods — “Similar Pixel Selection Method (SPSM)”, “Magic Wand Method (MWM)” and the “Color Range Selection Method (CRSM)” — entail advantages and disadvantages depending on the sediment (e.g., composition, color, texture, porosity, etc.) and ichnological features (size of traces, infilling material, burrow wall, etc.). The IDIAP provides an estimation of the amount of trace fossils produced by a particular ichnotaxon, by a whole ichnocoenosis or even for a complete ichnofabric. We recommend the application of the complete IDIAP to a given case study, followed by selection of the most appropriate method. The IDIAP was applied to core material recovered from the IODP Expedition 339, enabling us, for the first time, to arrive at a quantitative estimation of the discrete trace fossil assemblage in core samples.

Analysis of damage to buildings following the 2010–11 Eastern Australia floods

This research analyses the extent of damage to buildings in Brisbane, Ipswich and Grantham during the recent Eastern Australia flooding and explore the role planning and design/construction regulations played in these failures. It highlights weaknesses in the current systems and propose effective solutions to mitigate future damage and financial loss under current or future climates. 2010 and early 2011 saw major flooding throughout much of Eastern Australia. Queensland and Victoria were particularly hard hit, with insured losses in these states reaching $2.5 billion and many thousands of homes inundated. The Queensland cities of Brisbane and Ipswich were the worst affected; around two-thirds of all inundated property/buildings were in these two areas. Other local government areas to record high levels of inundation were Central Highlands and Rockhampton Regional Councils in Queensland, and Buloke, Campaspe, Central Gold Fields and Loddon in Victoria. Flash flooding was a problem in a number of Victorian councils, but the Lockyer Valley west of Ipswich suffered the most extensive damage with 19 lives lost and more than 100 homes completely destroyed. In all more than 28,000 properties were inundated in Queensland and around 2,500 buildings affected in Victoria. Of the residential properties affected in Brisbane, around 90% were in areas developed prior to the introduction of floodplain development controls, with many also suffering inundation during the 1974 floods. The project developed a predictive model for estimating flood loss and occupant displacement. This model can now be used for flood risk assessments or rapid assessment of impacts following a flood event.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Sustainability in post disaster road infrastructure recovery projects and asset management

Civil infrastructure and especially roads are being impacted with increasing frequency by flood, Tsunami, cyclone related natural and manmade disasters in the world. Responding to such events and in preparing for more regular and intense climate-change induced events in future, the road governing agencies are reviewing how postdisaster road infrastructure recovery projects are best planned and delivered. In particular, there is awareness that rebuilding such infrastructure require sustainable asset management strategies across economic, environmental and social dimensions. A comprehensive asset management framework for pre and post disaster situations can minimize negative impacts on our communities, economy and environment. This research paper is focused on post disaster management in road infrastructures and road infrastructure asset management strategies used by road authorities. Analyzing the implications of disruption to transport network and associated services is an important part of preparing local and regional responses to the impacts of disasters. This research paper will contribute to strategic infrastructure asset planning, management leading to safe, efficient and integrated transport system that supports sustainable economic, social and environmental outcomes. This paper also focuses on proper asset management, governance and engineering principles which should be followed and adopted in post disaster recovery projects to maximize sustainability in environmental, social and economic dimensions.

Synthetic rating procedures for railway bridges

One of the most important parts of any Bridge Management System (BMS) is the condition assessment and rating of bridges. This paper, introduces a procedure for condition assessment, based on criticality and vulnerability analysis. According to this procedure, new rating equations are developed. The inventory data is used to determine the contribution of different critical factors such as environmental effects, flood, earthquake, wind, and vehicle impacts. The criticality of the components to live load and vulnerability of the components to the above critical factors are identified. Based on the criticality and the vulnerability of the components and criticality of factors, and by using the new rating equations, the condition assessment and the rating of the railway bridges and their components at the network level will be conducted. This method for the first time incorporates structural analysis, available knowledge of risk assessment in structural engineering standards, and the experience of structural engineers in a practical way to enhance the reliability of the condition assessment and rating a network of bridges.

Discerning the timing and cause of historical mortality events in modern Porites from the Great Barrier Reef

The life history strategies of massive Porites corals make them a valuable resource not only as key providers of reef structure, but also as recorders of past environmental change. Yet recent documented evidence of an unprecedented increase in the frequency of mortality in Porites warrants investigation into the history of mortality and associated drivers. To achieve this, both an accurate chronology and an understanding of the life history strategies of Porites are necessary. Sixty-two individual Uranium–Thorium (U–Th) dates from 50 dead massive Porites colonies from the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed the timing of mortality to have occurred predominantly over two main periods from 1989.2 ± 4.1 to 2001.4 ± 4.1, and from 2006.4 ± 1.8 to 2008.4 ± 2.2 A.D., with a small number of colonies dating earlier. Overall, the peak ages of mortality are significantly correlated with maximum sea-surface temperature anomalies. Despite potential sampling bias, the frequency of mortality increased dramatically post-1980. These observations are similar to the results reported for the Southern South China Sea. High resolution measurements of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca obtained from a well preserved sample that died in 1994.6 ± 2.3 revealed that the time of death occurred at the peak of sea surface temperatures (SST) during the austral summer. In contrast, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca analysis in two colonies dated to 2006.9 ± 3.0 and 2008.3 ± 2.0, suggest that both died after the austral winter. An increase in Sr/Ca ratios and the presence of low Mg-calcite cements (as determined by SEM and elemental ratio analysis) in one of the colonies was attributed to stressful conditions that may have persisted for some time prior to mortality. For both colonies, however, the timing of mortality coincides with the 4th and 6th largest flood events reported for the Burdekin River in the past 60 years, implying that factors associated with terrestrial runoff may have been responsible for mortality. Our results show that a combination of U–Th and elemental ratio geochemistry can potentially be used to precisely and accurately determine the timing and season of mortality in modern massive Porites corals. For reefs where long-term monitoring data are absent, the ability to reconstruct historical events in coral communities may prove useful to reef managers by providing some baseline knowledge on disturbance history and associated drivers.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Onset of Mediterranean outflow into the North Atlantic

Sediments cored along the southwestern Iberian margin during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339 provide constraints on Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) circulation patterns from the Pliocene epoch to the present day. After the Strait of Gibraltar opened (5.33 million years ago), a limited volume of MOW entered the Atlantic. Depositional hiatuses indicate erosion by bottom currents related to higher volumes of MOW circulating into the North Atlantic, beginning in the late Pliocene. The hiatuses coincide with regional tectonic events and changes in global thermohaline circulation (THC). This suggests that MOW influenced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), THC, and climatic shifts by contributing a component of warm, saline water to northern latitudes while in turn being influenced by plate tectonics.

Evaluations of BIM : frameworks and perspectives

This paper examines the evaluation of BIM-enabled projects. It provides a critical review of the three main areas of measurement, namely technology, organization/people and process. Using two documented case studies of BIM implementation, the paper illustrates the benefits realized by project owners and contractors, and illustrates a lack of attention relative to contextual factors affecting the adoption and deployment of BIM. The paper has three main contributions. First, it identifies and discusses the lack of and difficulty surrounding standardized assessment methods for evaluating BIM-enabled projects. Second, it proposes a conceptual model that includes contextual attributes and demonstrates how the proposed framework reaches beyond simple evaluation to encompass the documentation of BIM’s benefits, lessons learned, challenges and adopted solutions. Third, it shows how the framework can account for existing business processes, organizational process assets, and enterprise level factors. The paper aims to provide a conceptual basis for evaluation and a starting point for benchmarking.

Do airlines always suffer from crashes?

We examine the impact of aviation disasters on the stock prices of the crash airlines and their rival airlines. Results show that the crash airlines experience deeper negative abnormal returns as the degree of fatality increases. The stock prices of the rival airlines also suffer in large-scale disasters but benefit from the disasters when the fatality is minor.