Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

Parallel and nonparallel ecological, morphological and genetic divergence in lake-stream stickleback from a single catchment

Parallel phenotypic evolution in similar environments has been well studied in evolutionary biology; however, comparatively little is known about the influence of determinism and historical contingency on the nature, extent and generality of this divergence. Taking advantage of a novel system containing multiple lake-stream stickleback populations, we examined the extent of ecological, morphological and genetic divergence between three-spined stickleback present in parapatric environments. Consistent with other lake-stream studies, we found a shift towards a deeper body and shorter gill rakers in stream fish. Morphological shifts were concurrent with changes in diet, indicated by both stable isotope and stomach contents analysis. Performing a multivariate test for shared and unique components of evolutionary response to the distance gradient from the lake, we found a strong signature of parallel adaptation. Nonparallel divergence was also present, attributable mainly to differences between river locations. We additionally found evidence of genetic substructuring across five lake-stream transitions, indicating that some level of reproductive isolation occurs between populations in these habitats. Strong correlations between pairwise measures of morphological, ecological and genetic distance between lake and stream populations supports the hypothesis that divergent natural selection between habitats drives adaptive divergence and reproductive isolation. Lake-stream stickleback divergence in Lough Neagh provides evidence for the deterministic role of selection and supports the hypothesis that parallel selection in similar environments may initiate parallel speciation.

Parsing parallel evolution:Ecological divergence and differential gene expression in the adaptive radiations of thick-lipped Midas cichlid fishes from Nicaragua

The study of parallel evolution facilitates the discovery of common rules of diversification. Here, we examine the repeated evolution of thick lips in Midas cichlid fishes (the Amphilophus citrinellus species complex) - from two Great Lakes and two crater lakes in Nicaragua - to assess whether similar changes in ecology, phenotypic trophic traits and gene expression accompany parallel trait evolution. Using next-generation sequencing technology, we characterize transcriptome-wide differential gene expression in the lips of wild-caught sympatric thick- and thin-lipped cichlids from all four instances of repeated thick-lip evolution. Six genes (apolipoprotein D, myelin-associated glycoprotein precursor, four-and-a-half LIM domain protein 2, calpain-9, GTPase IMAP family member 8-like and one hypothetical protein) are significantly underexpressed in the thick-lipped morph across all four lakes. However, other aspects of lips' gene expression in sympatric morphs differ in a lake-specific pattern, including the magnitude of differentially expressed genes (97-510). Generally, fewer genes are differentially expressed among morphs in the younger crater lakes than in those from the older Great Lakes. Body shape, lower pharyngeal jaw size and shape, and stable isotopes (dC and dN) differ between all sympatric morphs, with the greatest differentiation in the Great Lake Nicaragua. Some ecological traits evolve in parallel (those related to foraging ecology; e.g. lip size, body and head shape) but others, somewhat surprisingly, do not (those related to diet and food processing; e.g. jaw size and shape, stable isotopes). Taken together, this case of parallelism among thick- and thin-lipped cichlids shows a mosaic pattern of parallel and nonparallel evolution. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Compositional Divergence and Convergence in Local Communities and Spatially Structured Landscapes

Community structure depends on both deterministic and stochastic processes. However, patterns of community dissimilarity (e.g. difference in species composition) are difficult to interpret in terms of the relative roles of these processes. Local communities can be more dissimilar (divergence) than, less dissimilar (convergence) than, or as dissimilar as a hypothetical control based on either null or neutral models. However, several mechanisms may result in the same pattern, or act concurrently to generate a pattern, and much research has recently been focusing on unravelling these mechanisms and their relative contributions. Using a simulation approach, we addressed the effect of a complex but realistic spatial structure in the distribution of the niche axis and we analysed patterns of species co-occurrence and beta diversity as measured by dissimilarity indices (e.g. Jaccard index) using either expectations under a null model or neutral dynamics (i.e., based on switching off the niche effect). The strength of niche processes, dispersal, and environmental noise strongly interacted so that niche-driven dynamics may result in local communities that either diverge or converge depending on the combination of these factors. Thus, a fundamental result is that, in real systems, interacting processes of community assembly can be disentangled only by measuring traits such as niche breadth and dispersal. The ability to detect the signal of the niche was also dependent on the spatial resolution of the sampling strategy, which must account for the multiple scale spatial patterns in the niche axis. Notably, some of the patterns we observed correspond to patterns of community dissimilarities previously observed in the field and suggest mechanistic explanations for them or the data required to solve them. Our framework offers a synthesis of the patterns of community dissimilarity produced by the interaction of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community assembly in a spatially explicit and complex context.

Relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of soil animal community: a spatially explicit analysis of oribatid mites

1. Ecologists are debating the relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community structure. Although the high diversity and strong spatial structure of soil animal assemblages could provide ecologists with an ideal ecological scenario, surprisingly little information is available on these assemblages.
2. We studied species-rich soil oribatid mite assemblages from a Mediterranean beech forest and a grassland. We applied multivariate regression approaches and analysed spatial autocorrelation at multiple spatial scales using Moran's eigenvectors. Results were used to partition community variance in terms of the amount of variation uniquely accounted for by environmental correlates (e.g. organic matter) and geographical position. Estimated neutral diversity and immigration parameters were also applied to a soil animal group for the first time to simulate patterns of community dissimilarity expected under neutrality, thereby testing neutral predictions.
3. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the correlation between community structure and key environmental parameters disappeared: about 40% of community variation consisted of spatial patterns independent of measured environmental variables such as organic matter. Environmentally independent spatial patterns encompassed the entire range of scales accounted for by the sampling design (from tens of cm to 100 m). This spatial variation could be due to either unmeasured but spatially structured variables or stochastic drift mediated by dispersal. Observed levels of community dissimilarity were significantly different from those predicted by neutral models.
4. Oribatid mite assemblages are dominated by processes involving both deterministic and stochastic components and operating at multiple scales. Spatial patterns independent of the measured environmental variables are a prominent feature of the targeted assemblages, but patterns of community dissimilarity do not match neutral predictions. This suggests that either niche-mediated competition or environmental filtering or both are contributing to the core structure of the community. This study indicates new lines of investigation for understanding the mechanisms that determine the signature of the deterministic component of animal community assembly.

Compositional divergence and convergence in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities

In spite of the controversy that they have generated, neutral models provide ecologists with powerful tools for creating dynamic predictions about beta-diversity in ecological communities. Ecologists can achieve an understanding of the assembly rules operating in nature by noting when and how these predictions are met or not met. This is particularly valuable for those groups of organisms that are challenging to study under natural conditions (e.g., bacteria and fungi). Here, we focused on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities and performed an extensive literature search that allowed us to synthesize the information in 19 data sets with the minimal requisites for creating a null hypothesis in terms of community dissimilarity expected under neutral dynamics. In order to achieve this task, we calculated the first estimates of neutral parameters for several AMF communities from different ecosystems. Communities were shown either to be consistent with neutrality or to diverge or converge with respect to the levels of compositional dissimilarity expected under neutrality. These data support the hypothesis that divergence occurs in systems where the effect of limited dispersal is overwhelmed by anthropogenic disturbance or extreme biological and environmental heterogeneity, whereas communities converge when systems have the potential for niche divergence within a relatively homogeneous set of environmental conditions. Regarding the study cases that were consistent with neutrality, the sampling designs employed may have covered relatively homogeneous environments in which the effects of dispersal limitation overwhelmed minor differences among AMF taxa that would lead to environmental filtering. Using neutral models we showed for the first time for a soil microbial group the conditions under which different assembly processes may determine different patterns of beta-diversity. Our synthesis is an important step showing how the application of general ecological theories to a model microbial taxon has the potential to shed light on the assembly and ecological dynamics of communities.

Pan-genome analysis of the emerging foodborne pathogen Cronobacter spp. suggests a species-level bidirectional divergence driven by niche adaptation

Background: Members of the genus Cronobacter are causes of rare but severe illness in neonates and preterm infants following the ingestion of contaminated infant formula. Seven species have been described and two of the species genomes were subsequently published. In this study, we performed comparative genomics on eight strains of Cronobacter, including six that we sequenced (representing six of the seven species) and two previously published, closed genomes.

Results: We identified and characterized the features associated with the core and pan genome of the genus Cronobacter in an attempt to understand the evolution of these bacteria and the genetic content of each species. We identified 84 genomic regions that are present in two or more Cronobacter genomes, along with 45 unique genomic regions. Many potentially horizontally transferred genes, such as lysogenic prophages, were also identified. Most notable among these were several type six secretion system gene clusters, transposons that carried tellurium, copper and/or silver resistance genes, and a novel integrative conjugative element.

Conclusions: Cronobacter have diverged into two clusters, one consisting of C. dublinensis and C. muytjensii (Cdub-Cmuy) and the other comprised of C. sakazakii, C. malonaticus, C. universalis, and C. turicensis, (Csak-Cmal-Cuni-Ctur) from the most recent common ancestral species. While several genetic determinants for plant-association and human virulence could be found in the core genome of Cronobacter, the four Cdub-Cmuy clade genomes contained several accessory genomic regions important for survival in a plant-associated environmental niche, while the Csak-Cmal-Cuni-Ctur clade genomes harbored numerous virulence-related genetic traits.

Afterword::Innovation, Ecological Modernisation and the ‘Post-Conflict’ Policy Agenda

Perhaps the weakest dimension of the ‘triple bottom line’ understanding of
sustainable development has been the ‘economic’ dimension. Much of the thinking
about the appropriate ‘political economy’ to underpin sustainable development has
been either utopian (as in some ‘environmental’ political views) or ‘business as usual’ approaches. Rejecting both of these utopian and realist views, it is clear from the papers presented here and the conference debates that something like ‘ecological modernisation’ is the preferred conceptualisation of ‘sustainable development’ within policy circles in Northern Ireland, the UK and other European states.

Assessing suspended sediment dynamics in relation to ecological thresholds and sampling strategies in two Irish headwater catchments

Prediction of the impact of suspended sediment on aquatic ecosystems requires adequate knowledge of sediment dynamics in surface waters. Often, studies reporting the response of aquatic biota to suspended sediment are concerned with concentrations, while catchment erosion studies often report sediment delivery as annual loads and yields, making the comparison to documented ecological impacts difficult. Similarly, the European Union Freshwater Fish Directive (FFD) (78/659/EC) stipulates a guideline value of 25mgl which should not be exceeded, with the exception of floods and droughts. In this respect, the significance of suspended sediment in two Irish rivers was assessed using turbidity sensors calibrated for suspended sediment. Sediment yields of 0.07 tonnes (t) hayear and 0.44thayear and annual FFD exceedance frequency of 8.3% and 17.8% were estimated for the two catchments. Contrasts in the frequency of exceedance events between both catchments was observed, yet duration was typically short (

Ecological and societal benefits of jellyfish blooms

Jellyfish are often considered as stressors on marine ecosystems or as indicators of highly perturbed systems. Far less attention is given to the potential of such species to provide beneficial ecosystem services in their own right. In an attempt to redress this imbalance we take the liberty of portraying jellyfish in a positive light and suggest that the story is not entirely one of doom and gloom. More specifically, we outline how gelatinous marine species contribute to the four categories of ecosystem services (regulating, supporting, provisioning and cultural) defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. This discussion ranges from the role of jellyfish in carbon capture and advection to the deep ocean through to the creation of micro habitat for developing fishes and the advancement of citizen science programmes. Attention is paid also to incorporation of gelatinous species into fisheries or ecosystem level models and the mechanisms by which we can improve the transfer of information between jellyfish researchers and the wider non-specialist community.

Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions

Fundamental ecological research is both intrinsically interesting and provides the basic knowledge required to answer applied questions of importance to the management of the natural world. The 100th anniversary of the British Ecological Society in 2013 is an opportune moment to reflect on the current status of ecology as a science and look forward to high-light priorities for future work. To do this, we identified 100 important questions of fundamental importance in pure ecology. We elicited questions from ecologists working across a wide range of systems and disciplines. The 754 questions submitted (listed in the online appendix) from 388 participants were narrowed down to the final 100 through a process of discussion, rewording and repeated rounds of voting. This was done during a two-day workshop and thereafter. The questions reflect many of the important current conceptual and technical pre-occupations of ecology. For example, many questions concerned the dynamics of environmental change and complex ecosystem interactions, as well as the interaction between ecology and evolution. The questions reveal a dynamic science with novel subfields emerging. For example, a group of questions was dedicated to disease and micro-organisms and another on human impacts and global change reflecting the emergence of new subdisciplines that would not have been foreseen a few decades ago. The list also contained a number of questions that have perplexed ecologists for decades and are still seen as crucial to answer, such as the link between population dynamics and life-history evolution. Synthesis. These 100 questions identified reflect the state of ecology today. Using them as an agenda for further research would lead to a substantial enhancement in understanding of the discipline, with practical relevance for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem function. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.