Discrete choice modelling of combined mode and departure time

Typical daily decision-making process of individuals regarding use of transport system involves mainly three types of decisions: mode choice, departure time choice and route choice. This paper focuses on the mode and departure time choice processes and studies different model specifications for a combined mode and departure time choice model. The paper compares different sets of explanatory variables as well as different model structures to capture the correlation among alternatives and taste variations among the commuters. The main hypothesis tested in this paper is that departure time alternatives are also correlated by the amount of delay. Correlation among different alternatives is confirmed by analyzing different nesting structures as well as error component formulations. Random coefficient logit models confirm the presence of the random taste heterogeneity across commuters. Mixed nested logit models are estimated to jointly account for the random taste heterogeneity and the correlation among different alternatives. Results indicate that accounting for the random taste heterogeneity as well as inter-alternative correlation improves the model performance.

Conifer defence against insects: microarray gene expression profiling of Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) induced by mechanical wounding or feeding by spruce budworms (Choristoneura occidentalis) or white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi) reveals large

Conifers are resistant to attack from a large number of potential herbivores or pathogens. Previous molecular and biochemical characterization of selected conifer defence systems support a model of multigenic, constitutive and induced defences that act on invading insects via physical, chemical, biochemical or ecological (multitrophic) mechanisms. However, the genomic foundation of the complex defence and resistance mechanisms of conifers is largely unknown. As part of a genomics strategy to characterize inducible defences and possible resistance mechanisms of conifers against insect herbivory, we developed a cDNA microarray building upon a new spruce (Picea spp.) expressed sequence tag resource. This first-generation spruce cDNA microarray contains 9720 cDNA elements representing c. 5500 unique genes. We used this array to monitor gene expression in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) bark in response to herbivory by white pine weevils (Pissodes strobi, Curculionidae) or wounding, and in young shoot tips in response to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis, Lepidopterae) feeding. Weevils are stem-boring insects that feed on phloem, while budworms are foliage feeding larvae that consume needles and young shoot tips. Both insect species and wounding treatment caused substantial changes of the host plant transcriptome detected in each case by differential gene expression of several thousand array elements at 1 or 2 d after the onset of treatment. Overall, there was considerable overlap among differentially expressed gene sets from these three stress treatments. Functional classification of the induced transcripts revealed genes with roles in general plant defence, octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, transport, secondary metabolism, and transcriptional regulation. Several genes involved in primary metabolic processes such as photosynthesis were down-regulated upon insect feeding or wounding, fitting with the concept of dynamic resource allocation in plant defence. Refined expression analysis using gene-specific primers and real-time PCR for selected transcripts was in agreement with microarray results for most genes tested. This study provides the first large-scale survey of insect-induced defence transcripts in a gymnosperm and provides a platform for functional investigation of plant-insect interactions in spruce. Induction of spruce genes of octadecanoid and ethylene signalling, terpenoid biosynthesis, and phenolic secondary metabolism are discussed in more detail.

Bioreactor Systems for Tissue Engineering

The hydrodynamic environment “created” by bioreactors for the culture of a tissue engineered construct (TEC) is known to influence cell migration, proliferation and extra cellular matrix production. However, tissue engineers have looked at bioreactors as black boxes within which TECs are cultured mainly by trial and error, as the complex relationship between the hydrodynamic environment and tissue properties remains elusive, yet is critical to the production of clinically useful tissues. It is well known in the chemical and biotechnology field that a more detailed description of fluid mechanics and nutrient transport within process equipment can be achieved via the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology. Hence, the coupling of experimental methods and computational simulations forms a synergistic relationship that can potentially yield greater and yet, more cohesive data sets for bioreactor studies. This review aims at discussing the rationale of using CFD in bioreactor studies related to tissue engineering, as fluid flow processes and phenomena have direct implications on cellular response such as migration and/or proliferation. We conclude that CFD should be seen by tissue engineers as an invaluable tool allowing us to analyze and visualize the impact of fluidic forces and stresses on cells and TECs.

Potential soil carbon sequestration in overgrazed grassland ecosystems

Excessive grazing pressure is detrimental to plant productivity and may lead to declines in soil organic matter. Soil organic matter is an important source of plant nutrients and can enhance soil aggregation, limit soil erosion, and can also increase cation exchange and water holding capacities, and is, therefore, a key regulator of grassland ecosystem processes. Changes in grassland management which reverse the process of declining productivity can potentially lead to increased soil C. Thus, rehabilitation of areas degraded by overgrazing can potentially sequester atmospheric C. We compiled data from the literature to evaluate the influence of grazing intensity on soil C. Based on data contained within these studies, we ascertained a positive linear relationship between potential C sequestration and mean annual precipitation which we extrapolated to estimate global C sequestration potential with rehabilitation of overgrazed grassland. The GLASOD and IGBP DISCover data sets were integrated to generate a map of overgrazed grassland area for each of four severity classes on each continent. Our regression model predicted losses of soil C with decreased grazing intensity in drier areas (precipitation less than 333 mm yr(-1)), but substantial sequestration in wetter areas. Most (93%) C sequestration potential occurred in areas with MAP less than 1800 mm. Universal rehabilitation of overgrazed grasslands can sequester approximately 45 Tg C yr(-1), most of which can be achieved simply by cessation of overgrazing and implementation of moderate grazing intensity. Institutional level investments by governments may be required to sequester additional C.

Influences of age and mechanical stability on volume, microstructure, and mineralization of the fracture callus during bone healing : Is osteoclast activity the key to age-related impaired healing?

Earlier studies have shown that the influence of fixation stability on bone healing diminishes with advanced age. The goal of this study was to unravel the relationship between mechanical stimulus and age on callus competence at a tissue level. Using 3D in vitro micro-computed tomography derived metrics, 2D in vivo radiography, and histology, we investigated the influences of age and varying fixation stability on callus size, geometry, microstructure, composition, remodeling, and vascularity. Compared were four groups with a 1.5-mm osteotomy gap in the femora of Sprague–Dawley rats: Young rigid (YR), Young semirigid (YSR), Old rigid (OR), Old semirigid (OSR). Hypothesis was that calcified callus microstructure and composition is impaired due to the influence of advanced age, and these individuals would show a reduced response to fixation stabilities. Semirigid fixations resulted in a larger ΔCSA (Callus cross-sectional area) compared to rigid groups. In vitro μCT analysis at 6 weeks postmortem showed callus bridging scores in younger animals to be superior than their older counterparts (pb0.01). Younger animals showed (i) larger callus strut thickness (pb0.001), (ii) lower perforation in struts (pb0.01), and (iii) higher mineralization of callus struts (pb0.001). Callus mineralization was reduced in young animals with semirigid fracture fixation but remained unaffected in the aged group. While stability had an influence, age showed none on callus size and geometry of callus. With no differences observed in relative osteoid areas in the callus ROI, old as well as semirigid fixated animals showed a higher osteoclast count (pb0.05). Blood vessel density was reduced in animals with semirigid fixation (pb0.05). In conclusion, in vivo monitoring indicated delayed callus maturation in aged individuals. Callus bridging and callus competence (microstructure and mineralization) were impaired in individuals with an advanced age. This matched with increased bone resorption due to higher osteoclast numbers. Varying fixator configurations in older individuals did not alter the dominant effect of advanced age on callus tissue mineralization, unlike in their younger counterparts. Age-associated influences appeared independent from stability. This study illustrates the dominating role of osteoclastic activity in age-related impaired healing, while demonstrating the optimization of fixation parameters such as stiffness appeared to be less effective in influencing healing in aged individuals.

Preliminary modelling outcomes : calculation of holding costs in greenfield residential development

Many of the costs associated with greenfield residential development are apparent and tangible. For example, regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others are all relatively easily identified since they represent actual costs incurred at a given point in time. However, identification of holding costs are not always immediately evident since by contrast they characteristically lack visibility. One reason for this is that, for the most part, they are typically assessed over time in an ever-changing environment. In addition, wide variations exist in development pipeline components: they are typically represented from anywhere between a two and over sixteen years time period - even if located within the same geographical region. Determination of the starting and end points, with regards holding cost computation, can also prove problematic. Furthermore, the choice between application of prevailing inflation, or interest rates, or a combination of both over time, adds further complexity. Although research is emerging in these areas, a review of the literature reveals attempts to identify holding cost components are limited. Their quantification (in terms of relative weight or proportionate cost to a development project) is even less apparent; in fact, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, it may be demonstrated that ambiguities exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Yet their impact on housing affordability is widely acknowledged to be profound, with their quantification potentially maximising the opportunities for delivering affordable housing. This paper seeks to build on earlier investigations into those elements related to holding costs, providing theoretical modelling of the size of their impact - specifically on the end user. At this point the research is reliant upon quantitative data sets, however additional qualitative analysis (not included here) will be relevant to account for certain variations between expectations and actual outcomes achieved by developers. Although this research stops short of cross-referencing with a regional or international comparison study, an improved understanding of the relationship between holding costs, regulatory charges, and housing affordability results.

Curbing paper wastage using flavoured feedback

In November 2009 the researcher embarked on a project aimed at reducing the amount of paper used by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) staff in their daily workplace activities. The key goal was to communicate to staff that excessive printing has a tangible and negative effect on their workplace and local environment. The research objective was to better understand what motivates staff towards more ecologically sustainable printing practises, whilst meeting their job’s demands. The current study is built on previous research that found that one interface does not address the needs of all users when creating persuasive Human Computer Interaction (HCI) interventions targeting resource consumption. In response, the current study created and trialled software that communicates individual paper consumption in precise metrics. Based on preliminary research data different metric sets have been defined to address the different motivations and beliefs of user archetypes using descriptive and injunctive normative information.

A preliminary examination of the effects of changes in motorcycle licensing in Queensland

Several sets of changes have been made to motorcycle licensing in Queensland since 2007, with the aim of improving the safety of novice riders. These include a requirement that a motorcycle learner licence applicant must have held a provisional or open car licence for 12 months, and imposing a 3 year limit for learner licence renewal. Additionally, a requirement to hold an RE (250 cc limited) class licence for a period of 12 months prior to progressing to an R class licence was introduced for Q-RIDE. This paper presents analyses of licensing transaction data that examine the effects of the licensing changes on the duration that the learner licence was held, factors affecting this duration and the extent to which the demographic characteristics of learner licence holders changed. The likely safety implications of the observed changes are discussed.

Pockets of creativity in business processes

Creative processes, for instance, the development of visual effects or computer games, increasingly become part of the agenda of information systems researchers and practitioners. Such processes get their managerial challenges from the fact that they comprise both well-structured, transactional parts and creative parts. The latter can often not be precisely specified in terms of control flow, required resources, and outcome. The processes’ high uncertainty sets boundaries for the application of traditional business process management concepts, such as process automation, process modeling, process performance measurement, and risk management. Organizations must thus exercise caution when it comes to managing creative processes and supporting these with information technology. This, in turn, requires a profound understanding of the concept of creativity in business processes. In response to this, the present paper introduces a framework for conceptualizing creativity within business processes. The conceptual framework describes three types of uncertainty and constraints as well as the interrelationships among these. The study is grounded in the findings from three case studies that were conducted in the film and visual effects industry. Moreover, we provide initial evidence for the framework’s validity beyond this narrow focus. The framework is intended to serve as a sensitizing device that can guide further information systems research on creativity-related phenomena.

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior

In order to examine time allocation patterns within household-level trip-chaining, simultaneous doubly-censored Tobit models are applied to model time-use behavior within the context of household activity participation. Using the entire sample and a sub-sample of worker households from Tucson's Household Travel Survey, two sets of models are developed to better understand the phenomena of trip-chaining behavior among five types of households: single non-worker households, single worker households, couple non-worker households, couple one-worker households, and couple two-worker households. Durations of out-of-home subsistence, maintenance, and discretionary activities within trip chains are examined. Factors found to be associated with trip-chaining behavior include intra-household interactions with the household types and their structure and household head attributes.

Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

Across-country comparisons of selected infant and young child feeding indicators and associated factors in four South Asian countries

Background: Information on infant and young child feeding is widely available in Demographic and Health Surveys and National Family Health Surveys for countries in South Asia; however, infant and young child feeding indicators from these surveys have not been compared between countries in the region. Objective. To compare the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and their determinants in children under 24 months of age between four South Asian countries. Methods: We selected data sets from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2004, the India National Family Health Survey (NFHS-03) 2005–06, the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2006, and the Sri Lanka 2000 Demographic and Health Survey. Infant feeding indicators were estimated according to the key World Health Organization indicators. Results: Exclusive breastfeeding rates were 42.5% in Bangladesh, 46.4% in India, and 53.1% in Nepal. The rate of full breastfeeding ranged between 60.6% and 73.9%. There were no factors consistently associated with the rate of no exclusive breastfeeding across countries. Utilization of health services (more antenatal clinic visits) was associated with higher rates of exclusive breastfeeding in India but lower rates in Nepal. Delivery at a health facility was a negative determinant of exclusive breastfeeding in India. Postnatal contacts by Public Health Midwives were a positive factor in Sri Lanka. A considerable proportion of infants under 6 months of age had been given plain water, juices, or other nonmilk liquids. The rate of timely first suckling ranged from 23.5% in India to 56.3% in Sri Lanka. Delivery by cesarean section was found to be a consistent negative factor that delayed initiation of breastfeeding. Nepal reported the lowest bottle-feeding rate of 3.5%. Socioeconomically privileged mothers were found to have higher bottlefeeding rates in most countries. Conclusions: Infant and young child feeding practices in the South Asia region have not reached the expected levels that are required to achieve a substantial reduction in child mortality. The countries with lower rates of exclusive breastfeeding have a great potential to improve the rates by preventing infants from receiving water and water-based or other nonmilk liquids during the first 6 months of life.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

Gas boosted solar water heaters : Queensland case studies of installation practices in new homes

Because of the greenhouse gas emissions implications of the market dominating electric hot water systems, governments in Australia have implemented policies and programs to encourage the uptake of solar water heaters (SWHs) in the residential market as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The cost-benefit analysis that usually accompanies all government policy and program design could be simplistically reduced to the ratio of expected greenhouse gas reductions of SWH to the cost of a SWH. The national Register of Solar Water Heaters specifies how many renewable energy certificates (RECs) are allocated to complying SWHs according to their expected performance, and hence greenhouse gas reductions, in different climates. Neither REC allocations nor rebates are tied to actual performance of systems. This paper examines the performance of instantaneous gas-boosted solar water heaters installed in new residences in a housing estate in south-east Queensland in the period 2007 – 2010. The evidence indicates systemic failures in installation practices, resulting in zero solar performance or dramatic underperformance (estimated average 43% solar contribution). The paper will detail the faults identified, and how these faults were eventually diagnosed and corrected. The impacts of these system failures on end-use consumers are discussed before concluding with a brief overview of areas where further research is required in order to more fully understand whole of supply chain implications.