A fuzzy neural network approach for contractor pre-qualification

Nonlinearity, uncertainty and subjectivity are the three predominant characteristics of contractors prequalification which cause the process more of an art than a scientific evaluation. A fuzzy neural network (FNN) model, amalgamating both the fuzzy set and neural network theories, has been developed aiming to improve the objectiveness of contractor prequalification. Through the FNN theory, the fuzzy rules as used by the prequalifiers can be identified and the corresponding membership functions can be transformed. Eighty-five cases with detailed decision criteria and rules for prequalifying Hong Kong civil engineering contractors were collected. These cases were used for training (calibrating) and testing the FNN model. The performance of the FNN model was compared with the original results produced by the prequalifiers and those generated by the general feedforward neural network (GFNN, i.e. a crisp neural network) approach. Contractor’s ranking orders, the model efficiency (R2) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were examined during the testing phase. These results indicate the applicability of the neural network approach for contractor prequalification and the benefits of the FNN model over the GFNN model. The FNN is a practical approach for modelling contractor prequalification.

Decision support system for contractor pre-qualification : artificial neural network model

The selection criteria for contractor pre-qualification are characterized by the co-existence of both quantitative and qualitative data. The qualitative data is non-linear, uncertain and imprecise. An ideal decision support system for contractor pre-qualification should have the ability of handling both quantitative and qualitative data, and of mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship of the selection criteria, such that rational and consistent decisions can be made. In this research paper, an artificial neural network model was developed to assist public clients identifying suitable contractors for tendering. The pre-qualification criteria (variables) were identified for the model. One hundred and twelve real pre-qualification cases were collected from civil engineering projects in Hong Kong, and eighty-eight hypothetical pre-qualification cases were also generated according to the “If-then” rules used by professionals in the pre-qualification process. The results of the analysis totally comply with current practice (public developers in Hong Kong). Each pre-qualification case consisted of input ratings for candidate contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification decisions. The training of the neural network model was accomplished by using the developed program, in which a conjugate gradient descent algorithm was incorporated for improving the learning performance of the network. Cross-validation was applied to estimate the generalization errors based on the “re-sampling” of training pairs. The case studies show that the artificial neural network model is suitable for mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship between contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification (disqualification) decisions. The artificial neural network model can be concluded as an ideal alternative for performing the contractor pre-qualification task.

Reflective learning through social network sites in design education

Reflective learning is vital for successful practice-led education such as animation, multimedia design and graphic design, and social network sites can accommodate various learning styles for effective reflective learning. In this paper, the researcher studies reflective learning through social network sites with two animation units. These units aim to provide students with an understanding of the tasks and workflows involved in the production of style sheets, character sheets and motion graphics for use in 3D productions for film and television and game design. In particular, an assessment in these units requires students to complete their online reflective journals throughout the semester. The reflective learning has been integrated within the unit design and students are encouraged to reflect weekly learning processes and outcomes. A survey evaluating for students’ learning experience was conducted, and its outcomes indicate that social network site based reflective learning will not be effective without considering students’ learning circumstances and designing peer-to-peer interactions.

The Evolution of the creative industries : creative clusters, creative citizens and social network markets 創意產業的演化 : 創意集群 ,創意公民, 社會網絡市場 [published in Chinese]

The creative industries are important because they are clustered at the point of attraction for a billion or more young people around the world. They're the drivers of demographic, economic and political change. They start from the individual talent of the creative artist and the individual desire and aspiration of the audience. These are the raw materials for innovation, change and emergent culture, scaled up to form new industries and coordinated into global markets based on social networks.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

The impact of institutional, instrumental and interpersonal underpinnings on network dynamics and outcomes

Networks form a key part of the infrastructure of contemporary governance arrangements and, as such, are likely to continue for some time. Networks can take many forms and be formed for many reasons. Some networks have been explicitly designed to generate a collective response to an issue; some arise from a top down perspective through mandate or coercion; while others rely more heavily on interpersonal relations and doing the right thing. In this paper, these three different perspectives are referred to as the “3I”s: Instrumental, Institutional or Interpersonal. It is proposed that these underlying motivations will affect the process dynamics within the different types of networks in different ways and therefore influence the type of outcomes achieved. This proposition is tested through a number of case studies. An understanding of these differences will lead to more effective design, management and clearer expectations of what can be achieved through networks.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Reliability driven reconfiguration of rural power distribution systems

This paper presents a reliability-based reconfiguration methodology for power distribution systems. Probabilistic reliability models of the system components are considered and Monte Carlo method is used while evaluating the reliability of the distribution system. The reconfiguration is aimed at maximizing the reliability of the power supplied to the customers. A binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO) algorithm is used as a tool to determine the optimal configuration of the sectionalizing and tie switches in the system. The proposed methodology is applied on a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution system.

HABITAT : a longitudinal multilevel study of physical acitvity change in mid-aged adults

Purpose. To explore the role of the neighborhood environment in supporting walking Design. Cross sectional study of 10,286 residents of 200 neighborhoods. Participants were selected using a stratified two-stage cluster design. Data were collected by mail survey (68.5% response rate). Setting. The Brisbane City Local Government Area, Australia, 2007. Subjects. Brisbane residents aged 40 to 65 years. Measures. Environmental: street connectivity, residential density, hilliness, tree coverage, bikeways, and street lights within a one kilometer circular buffer from each resident’s home; and network distance to nearest river or coast, public transport, shop, and park. Walking: minutes in the previous week categorized as < 30 minutes, ≥ 30 < 90 minutes, ≥ 90 < 150 minutes, ≥ 150 < 300 minutes, and ≥ 300 minutes. Analysis. The association between each neighborhood characteristic and walking was examined using multilevel multinomial logistic regression and the model parameters were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Results. After adjustment for individual factors, the likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes (relative to <30 minutes) was highest in areas with the most connectivity (OR=1.93, 99% CI 1.32-2.80), the greatest residential density (OR=1.47, 99% CI 1.02-2.12), the least tree coverage (OR=1.69, 99% CI 1.13-2.51), the most bikeways (OR=1.60, 99% CI 1.16-2.21), and the most street lights (OR=1.50, 99% CI 1.07-2.11). The likelihood of walking for more than 300 minutes was also higher among those who lived closest to a river or the coast (OR=2.06, 99% CI 1.41-3.02). Conclusion. The likelihood of meeting (and exceeding) physical activity recommendations on the basis of walking was higher in neighborhoods with greater street connectivity and residential density, more street lights and bikeways, closer proximity to waterways, and less tree coverage. Interventions targeting these neighborhood characteristics may lead to improved environmental quality as well as lower rates of overweight and obesity and associated chromic disease.

An experimental and finite element investigation of the biomechanics of vertebral compression fractures

Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by low bone mass and micro-architectural deterioration of bone tissue, with a consequent increase in bone fragility and susceptibility to fracture. Osteoporosis affects over 200 million people worldwide, with an estimated 1.5 million fractures annually in the United States alone, and with attendant costs exceeding $10 billion dollars per annum. Osteoporosis reduces bone density through a series of structural changes to the honeycomb-like trabecular bone structure (micro-structure). The reduced bone density, coupled with the microstructural changes, results in significant loss of bone strength and increased fracture risk. Vertebral compression fractures are the most common type of osteoporotic fracture and are associated with pain, increased thoracic curvature, reduced mobility, and difficulty with self care. Surgical interventions, such as kyphoplasty or vertebroplasty, are used to treat osteoporotic vertebral fractures by restoring vertebral stability and alleviating pain. These minimally invasive procedures involve injecting bone cement into the fractured vertebrae. The techniques are still relatively new and while initial results are promising, with the procedures relieving pain in 70-95% of cases, medium-term investigations are now indicating an increased risk of adjacent level fracture following the procedure. With the aging population, understanding and treatment of osteoporosis is an increasingly important public health issue in developed Western countries. The aim of this study was to investigate the biomechanics of spinal osteoporosis and osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures by developing multi-scale computational, Finite Element (FE) models of both healthy and osteoporotic vertebral bodies. The multi-scale approach included the overall vertebral body anatomy, as well as a detailed representation of the internal trabecular microstructure. This novel, multi-scale approach overcame limitations of previous investigations by allowing simultaneous investigation of the mechanics of the trabecular micro-structure as well as overall vertebral body mechanics. The models were used to simulate the progression of osteoporosis, the effect of different loading conditions on vertebral strength and stiffness, and the effects of vertebroplasty on vertebral and trabecular mechanics. The model development process began with the development of an individual trabecular strut model using 3D beam elements, which was used as the building block for lattice-type, structural trabecular bone models, which were in turn incorporated into the vertebral body models. At each stage of model development, model predictions were compared to analytical solutions and in-vitro data from existing literature. The incremental process provided confidence in the predictions of each model before incorporation into the overall vertebral body model. The trabecular bone model, vertebral body model and vertebroplasty models were validated against in-vitro data from a series of compression tests performed using human cadaveric vertebral bodies. Firstly, trabecular bone samples were acquired and morphological parameters for each sample were measured using high resolution micro-computed tomography (CT). Apparent mechanical properties for each sample were then determined using uni-axial compression tests. Bone tissue properties were inversely determined using voxel-based FE models based on the micro-CT data. Specimen specific trabecular bone models were developed and the predicted apparent stiffness and strength were compared to the experimentally measured apparent stiffness and strength of the corresponding specimen. Following the trabecular specimen tests, a series of 12 whole cadaveric vertebrae were then divided into treated and non-treated groups and vertebroplasty performed on the specimens of the treated group. The vertebrae in both groups underwent clinical-CT scanning and destructive uniaxial compression testing. Specimen specific FE vertebral body models were developed and the predicted mechanical response compared to the experimentally measured responses. The validation process demonstrated that the multi-scale FE models comprising a lattice network of beam elements were able to accurately capture the failure mechanics of trabecular bone; and a trabecular core represented with beam elements enclosed in a layer of shell elements to represent the cortical shell was able to adequately represent the failure mechanics of intact vertebral bodies with varying degrees of osteoporosis. Following model development and validation, the models were used to investigate the effects of progressive osteoporosis on vertebral body mechanics and trabecular bone mechanics. These simulations showed that overall failure of the osteoporotic vertebral body is initiated by failure of the trabecular core, and the failure mechanism of the trabeculae varies with the progression of osteoporosis; from tissue yield in healthy trabecular bone, to failure due to instability (buckling) in osteoporotic bone with its thinner trabecular struts. The mechanical response of the vertebral body under load is highly dependent on the ability of the endplates to deform to transmit the load to the underlying trabecular bone. The ability of the endplate to evenly transfer the load through the core diminishes with osteoporosis. Investigation into the effect of different loading conditions on the vertebral body found that, because the trabecular bone structural changes which occur in osteoporosis result in a structure that is highly aligned with the loading direction, the vertebral body is consequently less able to withstand non-uniform loading states such as occurs in forward flexion. Changes in vertebral body loading due to disc degeneration were simulated, but proved to have little effect on osteoporotic vertebra mechanics. Conversely, differences in vertebral body loading between simulated invivo (uniform endplate pressure) and in-vitro conditions (where the vertebral endplates are rigidly cemented) had a dramatic effect on the predicted vertebral mechanics. This investigation suggested that in-vitro loading using bone cement potting of both endplates has major limitations in its ability to represent vertebral body mechanics in-vivo. And lastly, FE investigation into the biomechanical effect of vertebroplasty was performed. The results of this investigation demonstrated that the effect of vertebroplasty on overall vertebra mechanics is strongly governed by the cement distribution achieved within the trabecular core. In agreement with a recent study, the models predicted that vertebroplasty cement distributions which do not form one continuous mass which contacts both endplates have little effect on vertebral body stiffness or strength. In summary, this work presents the development of a novel, multi-scale Finite Element model of the osteoporotic vertebral body, which provides a powerful new tool for investigating the mechanics of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures at the trabecular bone micro-structural level, and at the vertebral body level.

Identification of factors predicting clickthrough in Web searching using neural network analysis

In this research, we aim to identify factors that significantly affect the clickthrough of Web searchers. Our underlying goal is determine more efficient methods to optimize the clickthrough rate. We devise a clickthrough metric for measuring customer satisfaction of search engine results using the number of links visited, number of queries a user submits, and rank of clicked links. We use a neural network to detect the significant influence of searching characteristics on future user clickthrough. Our results show that high occurrences of query reformulation, lengthy searching duration, longer query length, and the higher ranking of prior clicked links correlate positively with future clickthrough. We provide recommendations for leveraging these findings for improving the performance of search engine retrieval and result ranking, along with implications for search engine marketing

Port decoupling for small arrays by means of an eigenmode feed network

An alternative approach to port decoupling and matching of arrays with tightly coupled elements is proposed. The method is based on the inherent decoupling effect obtained by feeding the orthogonal eigenmodes of the array. For this purpose, a modal feed network is connected to the array. The decoupled external ports of the feed network may then be matched independently by using conventional matching circuits. Such a system may be used in digital beam forming applications with good signal-to-noise performance. The theory is applicable to arrays with an arbitrary number of elements, but implementation is only practical for smaller arrays. The principle is illustrated by means of two examples.

New modal feed network for a compact monopole array with isolated ports

An element spacing of less than half a wavelength introduces strong mutual coupling between the ports of compact antenna arrays. The strong coupling causes significant system performance degradation. A decoupling network may compensate for the mutual coupling. Alternatively, port decoupling can be achieved using a modal feed network. In response to an input signal at one of the input ports, this feed network excites the antenna elements in accordance with one of the eigenvectors of the array scattering parameter matrix. In this paper, a novel 4-element monopole array is described. The feed network of the array is implemented as a planar ring-type circuit in stripline with four coupled line sections. The new configuration offers a significant reduction in size, resulting in a very compact array.