Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethephon promotion of crop abscission for unshaken and mechanically shaken macadamia

Promotion of fruit abscission in macadamia, Macadamia integrifolia (Proteaceae), has potential to reduce costs associated with prolonged harvesting of late-abscising cultivars. Effects of ethephon [(2-chloroethyl) phosphonic acid] on fruit removal force and crop abscission were monitored at 3 stages of the harvest season on both unshaken and mechanically shaken trees of the late-abscising macadamia cultivar A16. Ethephon application, tree shaking, or a combination of the 2 methods, accelerated crop removal from the tree at all stages during harvest. Early harvest before natural abscission resulted in little or no difference in nut-in-shell and kernel weight, kernel recovery and kernel oil content. Delaying ethephon application or tree shaking until commencement of natural abscission resulted in greater crop removal. Fruit removal force declined naturally towards 1 kgf at this stage, and was further reduced by ethephon application. The most effective approach for harvest acceleration was to reduce fruit removal force, before tree shaking, by spraying trees with ethephon.

Sediment yield and impacts from river catchments to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon

Land use intensification is estimated to result in an overall increase in sediment delivery to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon by a factor of approximately four. Modelling suggests that, following land use intensification, croplands cause the greatest increase of sediment yield and sediment concentration, whereas erosion of grazing land is the main contemporary source of sediments, primarily owing to the large spatial extent of this land use. The spatial pattern of sediment yield to the coast after land use intensification is strongly correlated with the pattern under natural conditions, although the greatest increase is estimated to have occurred in the wet-dry catchments. Sediment transport and resuspension processes have led to the development of a strongly sediment-partitioned shelf, with modern mud-rich sediments almost exclusively restricted to the inner and inner-middle shelf, northward-facing embayments and in the lee of headlands. Elevated sediment concentrations increase the potential transport rates of nutrients and other pollutants. Whether increased sediment supply to the coastal zone has impacted on reefs remains a point of contention. More sediment load data need to be collected and analysed in order to make detailed estimates of catchment yields and establish the possible sediment impact on the Great Barrier Reef.

Simulating growth, development, and yield of tillering pearl millet. III. Biomass accumulation and partitioning

Pearl millet landraces from Rajasthan, India, yield significantly less than improved cultivars under optimum growing conditions, but not under stressed conditions. To successfully develop a simulation model for pearl millet, capable of capturing such genotype x environment (G x E) interactions for grain yield, we need to understand the causes of the observed yield interaction. The aim of this paper is to quantify the key parameters that determine the accumulation and partitioning of biomass: the,light extinction coefficient, radiation use efficiency (RUE), pattern of dry matter allocation to the leaf blades, the determination of grain number, and the rate and duration of dry matter accumulation into individual grains. We used data on improved cultivars and landraces, obtained from both published and unpublished sources collected at ICRISAT, Patancheru, India. Where possible, the effects of cultivar and axis (main shoot vs. tillers) on these parameters were analysed, as previous research suggested that G x E interactions for grain yield are associated with differences in tillering habit. Our results indicated there were no cultivar differences in extinction coefficient, RUE, and biomass partitioning before anthesis, and differences between axes in biomass partitioning were negligible. This indicates there was no basis for cultivar differences in the potential grain yield. Landraces, however, produced consistently less grain yield for a given rate of dry matter accumulation at anthesis than did improved cultivars. This was caused by a combination of low grain number and small grain size. The latter was predominantly due to a lower grain growth rate, as genotypic differences in the duration of grain filling were relatively small. Main shoot and tillers also had a similar duration of grain filling. The low grain yield of the landraces was associated with profuse nodal tillering, supporting the hypothesis that grain yield was below the potential yield that could be supported by assimilate availability. We hypothesise this is a survival strategy, which enhances the prospects to escape the effects of stress around anthesis. (C) 2002 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Pea mania: deranged behaviour in cattle grazing a pea crop (Pisum sativum var arvense)

Hypersensitivity to external stimuli, progressing in some animals to manic behaviour, occurred in a cattle herd that grazed a crop of field peas (Pisum sativum var arvense) in the pre-flowering stage. Haematological and biochemical analyses eliminated hypomagnesaemia and ketosis as diagnoses. Other than two steers euthanased due to injuries sustained during manic episodes, all affected animals survived, recovering over 3 days when moved to alternative pasture. No necropsies were conducted. No microbial pathogens or endophytes were found on or in the plants. A previously reported incident in Victoria in 1987 in cattle grazing peas appeared to be of a similar nature. Environmental factors leading to these incidents were not clearly identified.

Yield response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes to different types of drought under rainfed lowlands - Part 1. Grain yield and yield components

Responses of rice genotypes to drought stress may be different when characteristics of the drought stress environments differ. The performance of 128 genotypes was examined under irrigation and four different types of drought stress, to determine genotypic consistency in yield and factors determining yields under different drought stress conditions. The different drought conditions were mild drought during grain filling, short and severe drought at flowering, prolonged severe drought during the reproductive to grain filling, and prolonged mild drought during vegetative and grain filling. Genotypic grain yield under mild stress conditions was associated with yield under irrigated conditions, indicating the importance of potential yield in environments where the yield reduction was less than 50%. However, yields under irrigated conditions differed over time and locations. Under prolonged or severe drought conditions, flowering time was an important determinant of grain yield. Earlier flowering genotypes escaped the severe stress and had higher grain yields indicating large genotype by environment (G x E) interactions which have implications for plant breeding even for mild stress. It is suggested that variations in flowering time, potential yields and drought patterns need to be considered for development of drought-resistant cultivars using specific physiological traits. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Yield response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes to different types of drought under rainfed lowlands - Part 2. Selection of drought resistant genotypes

Drought frequently reduces grain yield of rainfed lowland rice. A series of experiments were conducted in drought-prone northeast Thailand to study the magnitude and consistency of yield responses of diverse, rainfed lowland rice genotypes to drought stress environments and to examine ways to identify genotypes that confer drought resistance. One hundred and twenty-eight genotypes were grown under non-stress and four different types of drought stress conditions. The relationship of genotypic variation in yield under drought conditions to genetic yield potential, flowering time and flowering delay, and to a drought response index (DRI) that removed the effect of potential yield and flowering time on yield under stress was examined. Drought stress that developed prior to flowering generally delayed the time of flowering of genotypes, and the delay in flowering was negatively associated with grain yield, fertile panicle percentage and filled grain percentage. Genotypes with a longer delay in flowering time had extracted more water during the early drought period, and as a consequence, had higher water deficits. They were consistently associated with a larger yield reduction under drought and in one experiment with a smaller DRI. Genotypes, however, responded differently to the different drought stress conditions and there was no consistency in the DRI estimates for the different genotypes across the drought stress experiments. The results indicate that with the use of irrigated-control and drought test environments, genotypes with drought resistance can be identified by using DRI or delay in flowering. However, selections will differ depending on the type of drought condition. The inconsistency of the estimates in DRI and flowering delay across different drought conditions reflects the nature of the large genotype-by-environment interactions observed for grain yield under various types of drought in rainfed lowland conditions. (C), 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Yield response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes to different types of drought under rainfed lowlands - Part 3. Plant factors contributing to drought resistance

A series of experiments were conducted in drought-prone northeast Thailand to examine the magnitude of yield responses of diverse genotypes to drought stress environments and to identify traits that may confer drought resistance to rainfed lowland rice. One hundred and twenty eight genotypes were grown under non-stress and four different types of drought stress conditions. Under severe drought conditions, the maintenance of PWP of genotypes played a significant role in determining final grain yield. Because of their smaller plant size (lower total dry matter at anthesis) genotypes that extracted less soil water during the early stages of the drought period, tended to maintain higher PWP and had a higher fertile panicle percentage, filled grain percentage and final grain yield than other genotypes. PWP was correlated with delay in flowering (r = -0.387) indicating that the latter could be used as a measure of water potential under stress. Genotypes with well-developed root systems extracted water too rapidly and experienced severe water stress at flowering. RPR which showed smaller coefficient of variation was more useful than root mass density in identifying genotypes with large root system. Under less severe and prolonged drought conditions, genotypes that could achieve higher plant dry matter at anthesis were desirable. They had less delay in flowering, higher grain yield and higher drought response index, indicating the importance of ability to grow during the prolonged stress period. Other shoot characters (osmotic potential, leaf temperature, leaf rolling, leaf death) had little effect on grain yield under different drought conditions. This was associated with a lack of genetic variation and difficulty in estimating trait values precisely. Under mild stress conditions (yield loss less than 50%), there was no significant relationship between the measured drought characters and grain yield. Under these mild drought conditions, yield is determined more by yield potential and phenotype than by drought resistant mechanisms per se. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tree yield and fruit minerals concentrations influence 'Hass' avocado fruit quality

To investigate the variation in quality of 'Hass' avocado fruit within an orchard, fruit were harvested at commercial maturity from 15 'Hass' trees of similar appearance, growing in three adjacent rows on the same soil type, and receiving similar management. Fruit were harvested at commercial maturity, and either ripened at 22 degreesC or stored at 2 or 7 degreesC for 3 or 5 weeks and then ripened. Significant positive correlations (based, on the mean for each datum tree) were noted between fruit flesh calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) concentrations and the (Ca + Mg)/potassium ratio, and the number of days for the fruit to reach the eating ripe stage (DTR). Negative correlations were also observed between these minerals and anthracnose and mesocarp discolouration (MD) severity. Negative correlations were observed between fruit potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and DTR. Fruit from trees with high fruit yield were generally smaller, with lower anthracnose and MD severity, ripened more slowly, and had higher flesh Ca concentrations. It is likely that cultural practices that maintain moderate to high fruit yield and reduce variation in yield will improve avocado fruit quality and reduce variability in quality. Since the main differences between adjacent trees in this trial were the seedling rootstocks of unknown origin, it is suggested that rootstocks can have a significant impact on avocado yield and fruit quality. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Production of the baculovirus-expressed dengue virus glycoprotein NS1 can be improved dramatically with optimised regimes for fed-batch cultures and the addition of the insect moulting hormone, 20-Hydroxyecdysone

A perennial problem in recombinant protein expression is low yield of the product of interest. A strategy which has been shown to increase the production of baculovirus-expressed proteins is to utilise fed-batch cultures. One disadvantage of this approach is the time-consuming task of optimising the feeding strategy. Previously, a statistical optimisation routine was applied to develop a feeding strategy that increased the yield of beta-Galactosidase (beta-Gal) by 2.4-fold (Biotechnol. Bioeng, 59 (1998) 178). This involves the single addition of nutrient concentrates (amino acids, lipids. glucose and yeastolate ultrafiltrate) into Sf9 cell cultures grown in SF900II medium. In this study, it is demonstrated that this optimised fed-batch strategy developed for a high-yielding intracellular product beta-Gal could be applied successfully to a relatively low-yielding glycosylated and secreted product such as the dengue virus glycoprotein NS1. Optimised batch infections yielded 4 mug/ml of NS1 at a peak cell density of 4.2 x 10(6) cells/ml. In contrast. optimised fed-batch infections exhibited a 3-fold improvement in yield, with 12 mug ml of NS1 produced at a peak cell density of 11.3 x 10(6) cells/ml. No further improvements in yield were recorded when the feed volumes were doubled and the peak cell density was increased to 23 x 10(6) cells/ml, unless the cultures were stimulated by the addition of 4 mug/ml of 20-Hydroxyecdysone (an insect moulting hormone). In this case, the NS1 yield was increased to 20 mug/ml. which was nearly 5-fold higher than optimised batch cultures. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Identification of a common hierarchy for tiller emergence, leaf area development and fertility

Most studies of tiller development have not related the physiological and morphological features of each calm to its subsequent fertility. This introduced problems when trying to account for the effects of tillering on yield in crop models. The objective of this study was to detect the most likely early determinants of tiller fertility in sorghum by identifying hierarchies for emergence, fertility and grain number of tillers over a wide range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and dry weight partitioning were quantified weekly for individual tillers and main culms of tillering and uniculm plants grown at one of four densities, from two to 16 plants m(-2). For a given plant in any given density, the same tiller hierarchy applied for emergence of tillers, fertility of the emerged tillers and their subsequent grain number. These results were observed over a range of tiller fertility rates (from 7 to 91%), fertile tiller number per plant at maturity (from 0.2 to 4.7), and tiller contribution to grain yield (from 5 to 78%). Tiller emergence was most probably related to assimilate supply and light quality. Development, fertility and contribution to yield of a specific tiller were highly dependent on growing conditions at the time of tiller emergence, particularly via early leaf area development of the tiller, which affected its subsequent leaf area accumulation. Assimilate availability in the main culm at the time of tiller emergence was the most likely early determinant of subsequent tiller fertility in this study. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.