Influence of plant traits on production costs and profitability of strawberry in southeast Queensland.

In Queensland the subtropical strawberry ( Fragaria * ananassa) breeding program aims to combine traits into novel genotypes that increase production efficiency. The contribution of individual plant traits to cost and income under subtropical Queensland conditions was investigated, with the overall goal of improving the profitability of the industry through the release of new strawberry cultivars. The study involved specifying the production and marketing system using three cultivars of strawberry that are currently widely grown annually in southeast Queensland, developing methods to assess the economic impact of changes to the system, and identifying plant traits that influence outcomes from the system. From May through September P (price; $ punnet -1), V (monthly mass; tonne of fruit on the market) and M (calendar month; i.e. May=5) were found to be related ( r2=0.92) by the function (SE) P=4.741(0.469)-0.001630(0.0005) V-0.226(0.102) M using data from 2006 to 2010 for the Brisbane central market. Both income and cost elements in the gross margin were subject to sensitivity analysis. 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' 'Groups' of 'Activities' were the major contributors to variable costs (each >20%) in the gross margin analysis. Within the 'Harvesting Group', the 'Picking Activity' contributed most (>80%) with the trait 'display of fruit' having the greatest (33%) influence on the cost of the 'Picking Activity'. Within the 'Handling/Packing Group', the 'Packing Activity' contributed 50% of costs with the traits 'fruit shape', 'fruit size variation' and 'resistance to bruising' having the greatest (12-62%) influence on the cost of the 'Packing Activity'. Non-plant items (e.g. carton purchases) made up the other 50% of the costs within the 'Handling/Packing Group'. When any of the individual traits in the 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' groups were changed by one unit (on a 1-9 scale) the gross margin changed by up to 1%. Increasing yield increased the gross margin to a maximum (15% above present) at 1320 g plant -1 (94% above present). A 10% redistribution of total yield from September to May increased the gross margin by 23%. Increasing fruit size increased gross margin: a 75% increase in fruit size (to ~30 g) produced a 22% increase in the gross margin. The modified gross margin analysis developed in this study allowed simultaneous estimation of the gross margin for the producer and gross value of the industry. These parameters sometimes move in opposite directions.

From a tree to a stand in Finnish boreal forests: biomass estimation and comparison of methods

There is an increasing need to compare the results obtained with different methods of estimation of tree biomass in order to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of forest biomass carbon. In this study, tree biomass was investigated in a 30-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) (Young-Stand) and a 130-year-old mixed Norway spruce (Picea abies)-Scots pine stand (Mature-Stand) located in southern Finland (61º50' N, 24º22' E). In particular, a comparison of the results of different estimation methods was conducted to assess the reliability and suitability of their applications. For the trees in Mature-Stand, annual stem biomass increment fluctuated following a sigmoid equation, and the fitting curves reached a maximum level (from about 1 kg/yr for understorey spruce to 7 kg/yr for dominant pine) when the trees were 100 years old. Tree biomass was estimated to be about 70 Mg/ha in Young-Stand and about 220 Mg/ha in Mature-Stand. In the region (58.00-62.13 ºN, 14-34 ºE, ≤ 300 m a.s.l.) surrounding the study stands, the tree biomass accumulation in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands followed a sigmoid equation with stand age, with a maximum of 230 Mg/ha at the age of 140 years. In Mature-Stand, lichen biomass on the trees was 1.63 Mg/ha with more than half of the biomass occurring on dead branches, and the standing crop of litter lichen on the ground was about 0.09 Mg/ha. There were substantial differences among the results estimated by different methods in the stands. These results imply that a possible estimation error should be taken into account when calculating tree biomass in a stand with an indirect approach.

The need for cost-effectiveness analyses of antimicrobial stewardship programmes: A structured review

The cost effectiveness of antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programmes was reviewed in hospital settings of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and limited to adult patient populations. In each of the 36 studies, the type of AMS strategy and the clinical and cost outcomes were evaluated. The main AMS strategy implemented was prospective audit with intervention and feedback (PAIF), followed by the use of rapid technology, including rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) technology, for the treatment of bloodstream infections. All but one of the 36 studies reported that AMS resulted in a reduction in pharmacy expenditure. Among 27 studies measuring changes to health outcomes, either no change was reported post-AMS, or the additional benefits achieved from these outcomes were not quantified. Only two studies performed a full economic evaluation: one on a PAIF-based AMS intervention; and the other on use of rapid technology for the selection of appropriate treatment for serious Staphylococcus aureus infections. Both studies found the interventions to be cost effective. AMS programmes achieved a reduction in pharmacy expenditure, but there was a lack of consistency in the reported cost outcomes making it difficult to compare between interventions. A failure to capture complete costs in terms of resource use makes it difficult to determine the true cost of these interventions. There is an urgent need for full economic evaluations that compare relative changes both in clinical and cost outcomes to enable identification of the most cost-effective AMS strategies in hospitals.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes

Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary care setting. The primary care professional refers the patient to a third party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the patient. This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of ERS in promoting physical activity compared with usual care in primary care setting. Methods A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ERS from a UK NHS perspective. The costs and outcomes of ERS were modelled over the patient's lifetime. Data were derived from a systematic review of the literature on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ERS, and on parameter inputs in the modelling framework. Outcomes were expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigated the impact of varying ERS cost and effectiveness assumptions. Sub-group analyses explored the cost-effectiveness of ERS in sedentary people with an underlying condition. Results Compared with usual care, the mean incremental lifetime cost per patient for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, generating a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for ERS at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary individuals without a diagnosed medical condition. There was a 51% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY and 88% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY. In sub-group analyses, cost per QALY for ERS in sedentary obese individuals was £14,618, and in sedentary hypertensives and sedentary individuals with depression the estimated cost per QALY was £12,834 and £8,414 respectively. Incremental lifetime costs and benefits associated with ERS were small, reflecting the preventative public health context of the intervention, with this resulting in estimates of cost-effectiveness that are sensitive to variations in the relative risk of becoming physically active and cost of ERS. Conclusions ERS is associated with modest increase in lifetime costs and benefits. The cost-effectiveness of ERS is highly sensitive to small changes in the effectiveness and cost of ERS and is subject to some significant uncertainty mainly due to limitations in the clinical effectiveness evidence base.

Measuring cost and affordability of healthy and less healthy diet globally

The INFORMAS food prices module proposes a step-wise framework to measure the cost and affordability of population diets. The price differential and the tax component of healthy and less healthy foods, food groups, meals and diets will be benchmarked and monitored over time. Results can be used to model or assess the impact of fiscal policies, such as ‘fat taxes’ or subsidies. Key methodological challenges include: defining healthy and less healthy foods, meals, diets and commonly consumed items; including costs of alcohol, takeaways, convenience foods and time; selecting the price metric; sampling frameworks; and standardizing collection and analysis protocols. The minimal approach uses three complementary methods to measure the price differential between pairs of healthy and less healthy foods. Specific challenges include choosing policy relevant pairs and defining an anchor for the lists. The expanded approach measures the cost of a healthy diet compared to the current (less healthy) diet for a reference household. It requires dietary principles to guide the development of the healthy diet pricing instrument and sufficient information about the population’s current intake to inform the current (less healthy) diet tool. The optimal approach includes measures of affordability and requires a standardised measure of household income that can be used for different countries. The feasibility of implementing the protocol in different countries is being tested in New Zealand, Australia and Fiji. The impact of different decision points to address challenges will be investigated in a systematic manner. We will present early insights and results from this work.

Malaria burden and costs of intensified control in Bhutan, 2006-2014: A situational analysis

- Introduction Malaria cases have dwindled in Bhutan with aim of malaria elimination by 2016. The aims of this study are to determine the trends and burden of malaria, the costs of intensified control activities, the main donors of the control activities and the costs of different preventive measures in the pre-elimination phase (2006-2014). - Methods A descriptive analysis of malaria surveillance data from 2006-2014 was carried out, using data from the Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP), Bhutan. Malaria morbidity and mortality among local Bhutanese and foreign nationals were analysed. The cost of different control and preventive measures, and estimation of the average numbers of long-lasting insecticidal nests (LLINs) per person were calculated. - Findings There were 5,491 confirmed malaria cases from 2006 to 2014. By 2013, there was an average of one LLIN for every 1·51 individuals. The Global Fund was the main international donor accounting for > 80% of the total funds. The cost of procuring LLINs accounted for > 90% of the total cost of prevention measures. - Interpretation The malaria burden reduced significantly over the study period with high coverage of LLINs in Bhutan. This foreseeable challenges that require national attention to maintain malaria-free status after elimination are importation of malaria, particularly from India; continued protection of the population in endemic districts through complete coverage with LLINs and IRS; and exploration of local funding modalities post elimination in the event there is a reduction in international funding.

Experimental investigation of die wear in small-batch hammer-forging under unlubricated conditions

Wear of dies is a serious problem in the forging industry. The materials used for the dies are generally expensive steel alloys and the dies require costly heat treatment and surface finishing operations. Degeneration of the die profile implies rejection of forged components and necessitates resinking or replacement of the die. Measures which reduce wear of the die can therefore aid in the reduction of production costs. The work reported here is the first phase of a study of the causes of die wear in forging production where the batch size is small and the machine employed is a light hammer. This is a problem characteristic of the medium and small scale area of the forging industry where the cost of dies is a significant proportion of the total capital investment. For the same energy input and under unlubricated conditions, die wear has been found to be sensitive to forging temperature; in cold forging the yield strength of the die material is the prime factor governing the degeneration of the die profile, whilst in hot forging the wear resistance of the die material is the main factor which determines the rate of die wear. At an intermediate temperature, such as that characteristic of warm forging, the die wear is found to be less than that in both cold and hot forging. This preliminary study therefore points to the fact that the forging temperature must be taken into account in the selection of die material. Further, the forging industry must take serious note of the warm forging process, as it not only provides good surface finish, as claimed by many authors, but also has an inherent tendency to minimize die wear.

Subspace intersection method of high-resolution bearing estimation in shallow ocean using acoustic vector sensors

The subspace intersection method (SIM) provides unbiased bearing estimates of multiple acoustic sources in a range-independent shallow ocean using a one-dimensional search without prior knowledge of source ranges and depths. The original formulation of this method is based on deployment of a horizontal linear array of hydrophones which measure acoustic pressure. In this paper, we extend SIM to an array of acoustic vector sensors which measure pressure as well as all components of particle velocity. Use of vector sensors reduces the minimum number of sensors required by a factor of 4, and also eliminates the constraint that the intersensor spacing should not exceed half wavelength. The additional information provided by the vector sensors leads to performance enhancement in the form of lower estimation error and higher resolution.

Sustainability and Mission Drift in Microfinance

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are constrained by double bottom-lines: meeting social obligations (the first bottom-line) and obtaining financial self-sufficiency (the second bottom-line). The proponents of the first bottom-line, however, are increasingly concerned that there is a trade-off between these two bottom-lines—i.e., getting hold of financial self-sufficiency may lead MFIs to drift away from their original social mission of serving the very poor, commonly known as mission drift in microfinance which is still a controversial issue. This study aims at addressing the concerns for mission drift in microfinance in a performance analysis framework. Chapter 1 deals with theoretical background, motivation and objectives of the topic. Then the study explores the validity of three major and related present-day concerns. Chapter 2 explores the impact of profitability on outreach-quality in MFIs, commonly known as mission drift, using a unique panel database that contains 4-9 years’ observations from 253 MFIs in 69 countries. Chapter 3 introduces factor analysis, a multivariate tool, in the process of analysing mission drift in microfinance and the exercise in this chapter demonstrates how the statistical tool of factor analysis can be utilised to examine this conjecture. In order to explore why some microfinance institutions (MFIs) perform better than others, Chapter 4 looks at factors which have an impact on several performance indicators of MFIs—profitability or sustainability, repayment status and cost indicators—based on quality-data on 353 institutions in 77 countries. The study also demonstrates whether such mission drift can be avoided while having self-sustainability. In Chapter 5 we examine the impact of capital and financing structure on the performance of microfinance institutions where estimations with instruments have been performed using a panel dataset of 782 MFIs in 92 countries for the period 2000-2007. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the study by summarising the results from the previous chapters and suggesting some directions for future studies.

Studies in biogas technology. Part II. Optimisation of plant dimensions

In this paper, the design basis of the conventional Khadi and Village Industries Commission biogas plants has been elucidated. It has been shown that minimisation of the cost of the gas holder alone leads to the narrow and deep digesters of conventional plants. If instead, the total capital cost of the gas holder plus digester is minimised, the optimisation leads to wide and shallow digesters, which are less expensive. To test this alternative, two prototype plants have been designed, constructed and operated. These plants are not only 25–40% cheaper, but their performance is actually slightly better than the conventional plants.

Synthesis of Cost-Optimal Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers

Synthesis of cost-optimal shell-and-tube heat exchangers is a difficult task since it involves a large number of parameters. An attempt is made in this article to simplify the process of choosing the parameter values that will minimize the cost of any heat exchanger satisfying a given heat duty and a particular set of constraints. The simplification is based on decoupling of the geometric and the thermal aspects of the problem. The concept of curves for cost-optimal design is introduced and is shown to simplify the synthesis process for shell-and-tube heat exchangers.

Design options reduce exchanger cost

Heat exchanger design is a complex task involving the selection of a large number of interdependent design parameters. There are no established general techniques for optimizing the design, though a few earlier attempts provide computer software based on gradient methods, case study methods, etc. The authors felt that it would be useful to determine the nature of the optimal and near-optimal feasible designs to devise an optimization technique. Therefore, in this article they have obtained a large number of feasible designs of shell and tube heat exchangers, intended to perform a given heat duty, by an exhaustive search method. They have studied how their capital and operating costs varied. The study reveals several interesting aspects of the dependence of capital and total costs on various design parameters. The authors considered a typical shell and tube heat exchanger used in an oil refinery. Its heat duty, inlet temperature and other details are given.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Distributed Simulation Of Flexible Manufacturing Systems

Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS), widely considered as the manufacturing technology of the future, are gaining increasing importance due to the immense advantages they provide in terms of cost, quality and productivity over the conventional manufacturing. An FMS is a complex interconnection of capital intensive resources and high levels of system performance is very crucial for survival in a competing environment.Discrete event simulation is one of the most popular methods for performance evaluation of FMS during planning, design and operation phases. Indeed fast simulators are suggested for selection of optimal strategies for flow control (which part type to enter and at what instant), AGV scheduling (which vehicle to carry which part), routing (which machine to process the part) and part selection (which part for processing next). In this paper we develop a C-net based model for an FMS and use the same for distributed discrete event simulation. We illustrate using examples the efficacy of destributed discrete event simulation for the performance evaluation of FMSs.