Estratégias periféricas sessenta anos depois do acordo de Bretton Woods

After sixty years, the Bretton Woods Agreement continuous to be a reference for the debates concerning institutional organization of the international monetary system. This paper compares some features of the arrangements that have emerged in that context with the recent wave of institutional reforms in the international financial architecture. We explore some arguments suggesting that, in an instable financial environment, is possible to envisage a strong rationality in strategies for emerging economies associated with a more active capital flows and exchange rate management. Apparently, those strategies are not dissimilar to the ones today's advanced countries had used in Bretton Woods Era.

Model of Big Data Failure: Review of Information System Failure

In the new age of information technology, big data has grown to be the prominent phenomena. As information technology evolves, organizations have begun to adopt big data and apply it as a tool throughout their decision-making processes. Research on big data has grown in the past years however mainly from a technical stance and there is a void in business related cases. This thesis fills the gap in the research by addressing big data challenges and failure cases. The Technology-Organization-Environment framework was applied to carry out a literature review on trends in Business Intelligence and Knowledge management information system failures. A review of extant literature was carried out using a collection of leading information system journals. Academic papers and articles on big data, Business Intelligence, Decision Support Systems, and Knowledge Management systems were studied from both failure and success aspects in order to build a model for big data failure. I continue and delineate the contribution of the Information System failure literature as it is the principal dynamics behind technology-organization-environment framework. The gathered literature was then categorised and a failure model was developed from the identified critical failure points. The failure constructs were further categorized, defined, and tabulated into a contextual diagram. The developed model and table were designed to act as comprehensive starting point and as general guidance for academics, CIOs or other system stakeholders to facilitate decision-making in big data adoption process by measuring the effect of technological, organizational, and environmental variables with perceived benefits, dissatisfaction and discontinued use.

O que é que o reeleito tem? O retorno: o esboço de uma teoria da reeleição no Brasil

This article compares the determinants of electoral success in two consecutive Brazilian legislative elections, 1998 and 2002. There is a clear difference between both periods that renders the comparison especially interesting. In 1998 the incumbent president was running for reelection whereas in 2002 it was an open seat contest. We hypothesize that in 1998 the proximity of the Federal Deputy with the president and the allocation of federal monies controlled by the Executive Branch played a more significant role in affecting reelection success than in 2002. Hence, if the President is himself running for reelection is an important intervening contextual variable in understanding reelection success of Federal Deputies.

O Estado e suas razões: o II PND

The State and its reasons: the 2nd PND. This paper intends to contribute to the debate on the reasons why the Geisel administration (1974-78) chose - as it faced an adverse conjuncture - an accelerated growth agenda which was materialized in the 2nd PND (National Development Plan). In order to do so, it resorts to a methodological definition which is based upon an institutionalist approach and favors the interaction between the political and the economic variables. Contradicting the literature that interprets the strong presence of the State and the regional decentralization of the 2nd PND as signs of neopatrimonialism, it is advocated that this category of analysis is inadequate to explain the government’s choice, although this aspect is embedded in the Brazilian social-historical formation. The political rationality of the plan must be investigated in the conjuncture itself, marked by the liberalization project, which does not clash with the plan’s economic rationality - on the contrary, it is complemented by it.

Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

Model of Big Data Failure: Review of Information System Failure

In the new age of information technology, big data has grown to be the prominent phenomena. As information technology evolves, organizations have begun to adopt big data and apply it as a tool throughout their decision-making processes. Research on big data has grown in the past years however mainly from a technical stance and there is a void in business related cases. This thesis fills the gap in the research by addressing big data challenges and failure cases. The Technology-Organization-Environment framework was applied to carry out a literature review on trends in Business Intelligence and Knowledge management information system failures. A review of extant literature was carried out using a collection of leading information system journals. Academic papers and articles on big data, Business Intelligence, Decision Support Systems, and Knowledge Management systems were studied from both failure and success aspects in order to build a model for big data failure. I continue and delineate the contribution of the Information System failure literature as it is the principal dynamics behind technology-organization-environment framework. The gathered literature was then categorised and a failure model was developed from the identified critical failure points. The failure constructs were further categorized, defined, and tabulated into a contextual diagram. The developed model and table were designed to act as comprehensive starting point and as general guidance for academics, CIOs or other system stakeholders to facilitate decision-making in big data adoption process by measuring the effect of technological, organizational, and environmental variables with perceived benefits, dissatisfaction and discontinued use.

Persistência inflacionária e curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana para o Brasil

Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that sustainable inflation persistence has theoretical support not only due price indexation, but also because of micro-foundations based on assumptions of Simon's bounded rationality and because of persistent mark-up shocks. the new keynesian phillips curve, estimated for brazil for the period 2000/2008, and the partial coefficients of determination for moving sub-periods of 36 months identifies inflation persistence as the main determinant of inflation, with the capacity gap presenting larger importance only in the end of the sample period. Inflation persistence requires harder monetary policy when neither accommodation is acceptable nor complementary policies in order to reduce it, such as the minimization of indexation mechanisms and control of the market power, are adopted.

A psicologia econômica como resposta ao individualismo metodológico

This paper aims at presenting and discussing some of behavioral models developed by Economic Psychology which is considered an irrelevant field of research for many economists yet. On highlighting the multidisciplinary convergence notably from economists' interests by psychology, it is done emphasis to the discussion of the role played by methodological individualism in the psychological reduction of the homo economicus. Such a reduction has, on the one hand, made harder the conciliation between the individual and the collective level of analysis. On the other hand, it made closer economists and psychologists in the common interest of developing methods capable of understanding the economic behavior under a perspective which allows the integration of the complexity of collective dimension in which the individual makes part.

A complexidade e o construtivismo na economia

Complexity and constructivism in economics. This paper attempts to show and summarize the concept of rules, order and complexity introduced around the mid-twentieth century by Friedrich August von Hayek. It also attempts to create a current parallel between those concepts and the field of complexity economics. At the time of his writings, the author sought to present arguments against the Cartesian rationality. Nowadays, the concepts presented by him could also serve as arguments against the way of thought used in mainstream microeconomics. A debate can now be seen between the mainstream microeconomics and the authors of the complexity theory applied to the economy, which can be understood as explanations guided by generic assumptions versus natural explanations guided in a computational approach.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Utstillingens retorikk : et bidrag til en retorisk didaktikk for kunst og håndverk

The topic of this dissertation is the didactic exhibition in the Arts and Crafts subject. Exhibiting student work and art and form culture is part of a long professional tradition in the field. Yet, exhibition as form and as a way of learning are inadequately explored and debated. The didactic problem area of the thesis, where studies of formative practices are central, place it within the research field of Educational Slojd. The didactic standpoint and main theoretical perspective relate the project to the Arts didactics research field at the University College of Bergen where the aim is to develop an alternative didactics thinking for the arts; a rhetoric arts didactics. Didactic focus is shifted from the relationship between teacher – pupil – teaching materials, to studies of how knowledge is formulated in specific practices. The thesis has a premise that every exhibition has its own rhetoric and that didactics is inscribed in this rhetoric in the broadest and cultural sense. Through impulses from classical rhetoric and recent text theory, the thesis challenges the Arts and Crafts’s own idiom, its theoretical foundation and didactic grasp such as shown in the discourse established by the discipline and its specific exhibitive practices, as well as studying the relationship between verbal language and the discipline’s own register. The overall objective is to develop knowledge about exhibition rhetoric and its potential as a knowledge and learning arena in this field, and thereby contribute to developing a rhetoric didactics for the Arts and Crafts subject. This raises questions such as: How is an exhibition considered to be used and understood in the subject’s didactics texts and texts about didactics? How do different exhibition spaces inscribe conditions for exhibition work? How can a rhetoric perspective of didactics make aspects of an exhibition’s form register visible and contribute to knowledge of the creative processes in an exhibition? How do some selected exhibitions inscribe creativity and learning? What can a rhetoric perspective bring to the Arts and Crafts? A rhetoric didactics perspective includes knowledge of the tradition. A historical-ideological overview traces how exhibition, of both pupil/student work and of art and form culture, are used and considered as used in the discipline over time. This part can be read separately, but in this thesis, is primarily conceived as a backdrop for the development of the dissertation’s main rhetoric perspective. The empirical data are collected from my teacher training institution and consist of specific exhibition spaces and practices, of which my own production of two exhibitions can link the research to artistic development work. A rhetoric didactics is concrete, specific and contextual. The rhetoric readings are descriptive and show how culture and nature, temporality, materiality and technology are inscribed in the exhibition’s form. Didactic reflection develops from, and close to, the rhetoric readings of the exhibition’s form and content to finally arrive at a rhetorical concept for creativity and learning.

Conociendo a Aby Warburg

Aby Warburg es la oculta figura creadora de los estudios de iconología. Personaje indiscutido, ha sido retomado en los últimos años a partir de la reedición de sus obras y de numerosos estudios que posicionan su figura intelectual y los impactos que tuvo su método de aproximación a las imágenes, específicamente aquellos que hablaban del renacimiento del paganismo. Conceptos como pathosformeln, sobrevivencias de la antigüedad, accesorios en movimiento y el análisis histórico, psicológico y contextual de la producción cultural de las imágenes, son hoy característicos de una todavía novedosa manera de entender el estudio de la iconología.

Exploring Relationship between Pakistani Teachers’ Pedagogical Beliefs and ICT Use for Teaching and Learning

Background: The aim of present study is to investigate relationship between Pakistani teachers’ pedagogical beliefs and ICT use for teaching and learning. Previous studies found close relationship between pedagogical beliefs and teaching practices including use of ICT. However, variation in results is also reported and attributed to cultural and contextual differences. Methodology: Quantitative approach was used to study a sample of 231 Pakistani basic education teachers from middle and upper-middle range private schools, mostly from large urban centres. Results: This study confirmed previously study results that constructivist-compatible pedagogical beliefs are significantly related to both traditional and constructivist use of ICT. However, it is also found that traditional-transmission pedagogical beliefs are significantly related to traditional use of ICT – a finding not reported in previous studies. Some amounts of ICT training for pedagogical purpose exhibit significant impact on ICT use, in particular constructivist use of ICT. Similarly age also play a role as younger teachers are more likely to use ICT, however, no significant difference of pedagogical beliefs and ICT use was found between male and female teachers. Recommendation for practice and further investigation are made in chapter 5.

Institutional environment in North Korea: market structure and overcoming institutional voids

Tutkimus sai innoituksensa, kun tutkija huomasi tarpeen liiketaloudelliselle, ajantasaiselle ja realistiselle tutkimukselle Pohjois-Korean markkinoista, joka kuvailisi markkinoiden olemassaolevia ja puuttuvia rakenteita sekä tutkisi mahdollisuuksia ylittää puuttuvat rakenteet. Institutionaalinen teoria valittiin sopivaksi viitekehykseksi kuvailla ja tutkia markkinarakennetta. Tutkimuskysymys muotoiltiin seuraavasti: “Miten ulkomaiset yritykset voivat reagoida puuttuviin markkinarakenteisiin Pohjois-Koreassa?”. Tutkimuskysymys jaettiin kolmeen osakysymykseen: (1) Millainen on Pohjois-Korean markkinoiden institutionaalinen ympäristö? (2) Mitkä ovat merkittävimmät puuttuvat markkinarakenteet Pohjois-Koreassa? (3) Mitä mahdollisuuksia ulkomaisilla yrityksillä voisi olla reagoida puuttuviin markkinarakenteisiin? Tutkimus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena, koska tutkimuskysymys on deskriptiivinen. Aineisto kerättiin asiantuntijahaastattelun ja kvalitatiivisen sisällönanalyysin keinoin. Primääriaineiston muodostavat 2 asiantuntijahaastattelua ja sekundääriaineiston muodostavat 95 artikkelia, jotka kerättiin 40 lähteestä. Aineisto analysoitiin kvalitatiivisen sisällönanalyysin keinoin. Aineisto koodattiin, luokiteltiin ja esitettiin kokonaisuuksina luokittelurungon avulla, joka laadittiin tutkimusta varten muodostetun teoreettisen viitekehyksen mukaan. Tulokset ja johtopäätökset voidaan tiivistää seuraavasti. (1) Pohjois-Korean markkinan instituutioihin vaikuttaa kaksoisrakenne, jossa muodollinen, sosialistinen rakenne ja epämuodollinen, markkinalähtöinen rakenne toimivat päällekkäin. (2) Puuttuvia rakenteita on sekä markkinan kontekstissa että markkinatasolla. Puutteet ovat osittain seurausta vanhojen rakenteiden korvaantumisesta uusilla, jotka eivät ole institutionalisoituneet. (3) Yritykset voivat käyttää samoja mahdollisuuuksia reagoida puuttuviin markkinarakenteisiin Pohjois-Koreassa, joita kehittyvien markkinoiden yhteydessä on esitetty. Sen tulkittiin vähentävän käsitystä, jonka mukaan Pohjois-Korean markkina on liian erikoinen yritystoiminnalle. (4) Kasvava keskiluokka sekä yrittäjyyden ja naisten yhä merkittävämpi rooli liike-elämässä aiheuttavat alhaalta ylöspäin suuntautuvaa kehitystä markkinoilla. Nämä ovat merkkejä viimeaikaisesta kehityksestä, jotka eivät ole saaneet laajaa huomiota länsimaisessa mediassa. Se korostaa tarvetta liiketaloudelliselle, ajantasaiselle jatkotutkimukselle Pohjois-Korean markkinoista.

Institutional environment in North Korea: market structure and overcoming institutional voids

The research was sparked by an exchange in South Korea, as the author identified a gap in research that provides economic, up to date and realistic information about the North Korean market in English language. A need for a research was identified that would describe the market’s existing and missing market structures and explore possibilities to overcome the missing market structures. Institutional theory was chosen as a suitable framework to describe and explore the market. The research question was formulated as follows: “How can foreign companies overcome institutional voids in the North Korean market?”. To answer the research question, it was divided into three sub-questions as follows: (1) What is the institutional environment in North Korea like? (2) What are the major institutional voids in the North Korean market? (3) What possibilities do foreign companies have to overcome institutional voids? The research is qualitative by nature due to the descriptive and exploratory nature of the research question. Data collection consisted of expert interview and content analysis, resulting in primary data of two interviews and secondary data of 95 articles from 40 different sources. The data was analyzed with the systematical technique of content analysis. The data was coded, classified and presented as concepts with the help of a classification system that was build following the theoretical framework adapted for this study. The findings can be summarized as follows. (1) The market institutions are characterized by an overlapping dual system of formal, socialist structures and informal, market-oriented structures. (2) Institutional voids prevail on both the market’s contextual and on the market level. They are partly result of old institutions being replaced by new institutions that lack institutionalization. (3) Identified possibilities to overcome institutional voids correspond with possibilities drawn from previous research. This decreases the image of North Korea as an impossibly unique market to operate in. (4) Emerging middle class, rapidly growing entrepreneurial activities and women’s increasing role in business drive a down-to-up change in the market. This signals the recent development of the market, yet has been overlooked in the Western media. Thus there is a need for further economic, up to date research concerning North Korea.