Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Virtuaalimaailmoja valtaamassa : verkko-opetusinnovaation leviäminen koulun maantieteeseen vuosituhannen vaihteessa

Tutkimus käsittelee verkko-opetusinnovaation leviämistä perusasteen ja lukion maantieteeseen vuosina 1998–2004. Työssä sovellettiin opetusinnovaation leviämismallia ja innovaatioiden diffuusioteoriaa. Aineisto hankittiin seitsemänä vuotena kyselylomakkeilla maantieteen verkko-opetuksen edelläkävijäopettajilta, jotka palauttivat 326 lomaketta. Tutkimuksen pääongelmat olivat 1) Millaisia edellytyksiä edelläkävijäopettajilla on käyttää verkko-opetusta koulun maantieteessä? 2) Mitä sovelluksia ja millä tavoin edelläkävijäopettajat käyttävät maantieteen verkko-opetuksessa? 3) Millaisia käyttökokemuksia edelläkävijäopettajat ovat saaneet maantieteen verkko-opetuksesta? Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että tietokoneiden riittämätön määrä ja puuttuminen aineluokasta vaikeuttivat maantieteen verkko-opetusta. Työssä kehitettiin opettajien digitaalisten mediataitojen kuutiomalli, johon kuuluvat tekniset taidot, informaation prosessointitaidot ja viestintätaidot. Opettajissa erotettiin kolme verkko-opetuksen käyttäjätyyppiä: informaatiohakuiset kevytkäyttäjät, viestintähakuiset peruskäyttäjät ja yhteistyöhakuiset tehokäyttäjät. Verkko-opetukseen liittyi intensiivisiä myönteisiä ja kielteisiä kokemuksia. Se toi iloa ja motivaatiota opiskeluun. Sitä pidettiin rikastuttavana lisänä, joka haluttiin integroida opetukseen hallitusti. Edelläkävijäopettajat ottivat käyttöön tietoverkoissa olevaa informaatiota ja sovelsivat työvälineohjelmia. He pääsivät alkuun todellisuutta jäljittelevien virtuaalimaailmojen: satelliittikuvien toistaman maapallon, digitaalikarttojen ja simulaatioiden käytössä. Opettajat kokeilivat verkon sosiaalisia tiloja reaaliaikaisen viestinnän, keskusteluryhmien ja ryhmätyöohjelmien avulla. Mielikuvitukseen perustuvat virtuaalimaailmat jäivät vähälle sillä opettajat eivät juuri pelanneet viihdepelejä. He omaksuivat virtuaalimaailmoista satunnaisia palasia käytettävissä olevan laite- ja ohjelmavarustuksen mukaan. Virtuaalimaailmojen valtaus eteni tutkimuksen aikana digitaalisen informaation hyödyntämisestä viestintäsovelluksiin ja aloittelevaan yhteistyöhön. Näin opettajat laajensivat virtuaalireviiriään tietoverkkojen dynaamisiksi toimijoiksi ja pääsivät uusin keinoin tyydyttämään ihmisen universaalia tarvetta yhteyteen muiden kanssa. Samalla opettajat valtautuivat informaation kuluttajista sen tuottajiksi, objekteista subjekteiksi. Verkko-opetus avaa koulun maantieteelle huomattavia mahdollisuuksia. Mobiililaitteiden avulla informaatiota voidaan kerätä ja tallentaa maasto-olosuhteissa, ohjelmilla sitä voidaan muuntaa muodosta toiseen. Internetin autenttiset ja ajantasaiset materiaalit tuovat opiskeluun konkretiaa ja kiinnostavuutta, mallit, simulaatiot ja paikkatieto havainnollistavat ilmiöitä. Viestintä- ja yhteistyövälineet sekä sosiaaliset informaatiotilat vahvistavat yhteistyötä. Avainsanat: verkko-opetus, internet, virtuaalimaailmat, maantiede, innovaatiot

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

Computer simulation of polytypes

Polytypes have been simulated, treating them as analogues of a one-dimensional spin-half Ising chain with competing short-range and infinite-range interactions. Short-range interactions are treated as random variables to approximate conditions of growth from melt as well as from vapour. Besides ordered polytypes up to 12R, short stretches of long-period polytypes (up to 33R) have been observed. Such long-period sequences could be of significance in the context of Frank's theory of polytypism. The form of short-range interactions employed in the study has been justified by carrying out model potential calculations.

Scoping genetic tools, their limitations and applications for wild fisheries management

FRDC has commissioned a review of the role that existing and future genetic technologies may play in addressing critical challenges facing the exploitation of wild fisheries. Wild fisheries management has been assisted by genetic research for over 50 years and in Australia, this research has been largely funded by FRDC. Both fisheries management and the methods of genetic analysis have changed significantly during this time. Given these dynamics, as well as perceptions that communication between fisheries managers and geneticists has been poor in some cases, there is a strong need to reassess the ways in which genetic research can contribute to fisheries and for all stakeholders to critically examine each other's needs and capabilities.

Six unidentified, youngest members of a traditional Küfer guild posing in front of their wine barrels holding the tools of their trade and glasses of wine; Bad Dürkheim Portraits Men

Handwritten description on verso addressed to Herr u. Frau Ernst Weill

Development of a computer code to predict cooling of die and billet in forging

A hot billet in contact with relatively cold dies undergoes rapid cooling in the forging operation. This may give rise to unfilled cavities, poor surface finish and stalling of the press. A knowledge of billet-die temperatures as a function of time is therefore essential for process design. A computer code using finite difference method is written to estimate such temperature histories and validated by comparing the predicted cooling of an integral die-billet configuration with that obtained experimentally.

Computer-aided analysis of the structure of kinematic chains

Using the link-link incidence matrix to represent a simple-jointed kinematic chain algebraic procedures have been developed to determine its structural characteristics such as the type of freedom of the chain, the number of distinct mechanisms and driving mechanisms that can be derived from the chain. A computer program incorporating these graph theory based procedures has been applied successfully for the structural analysis of several typical chains.

Computer model for vedavati ground water basin. Part 1. Well field model

It is shown that a leaky aquifer model can be used for well field analysis in hard rock areas, treating the upper weathered and clayey layers as a composite unconfined aquitard overlying a deeper fractured aquifer. Two long-duration pump test studies are reported in granitic and schist regions in the Vedavati river basin. The validity of simplifications in the analytical solution is verified by finite difference computations.

Computer-model for vedavati groundwater basin .3. Irrigation potential

An estimate of the irrigation potential over and above the existing utilization was made based on the ground water potential in the Vedavati river basin. The estimate is based on assumed crops and cropping patterns as per existing practice in the various taluks of the basin. Irrigation potential was estimated talukwise based on the available ground water potential identified from the simulation study. It is estimated that 84,100 hectares of additional land can be brought under irrigation from ground water in the entire basin.

Complex carbohydrates: 2. The modes of binding of complex carbohydrates to concanavalin A - a computer modelling approach

The probable modes of binding of some complex carbohydrates, which have the trimannosidic core structure (Man3GlcNAc2), to concanavalin A (Con A) have been determined using a computer modelling technique. These studies show that Con a can bind to the terminal mannose residues of the trimannosidic core structure and to the internal mannosyl as well as to the terminal N-acetylglucosamine residues of the N-acetylglucosamine substituted trimannosidic core structure. The oligosaccharide with terminal mannose residues can bind in its minimum energy conformers, whereas the oligosaccharide with internal mannosyl and terminal N-acetylglucosamine residues can bind only in higher energy conformers. In addition the former oligosaccharide forms more hydrogen bonds with Con A than the latter. These results suggest that, for these oligosaccharides, the terminal mannose residue has a much higher probability of reaching the binding site than either the internal mannosyl or the terminal N-acetylglucosamine residues. The substitution of a bisecting N-acetylglucosamine residue on these oligosaccharides, affects significantly the accessibility of the residues which bind to Con A and thereby reduces their binding affinity. It thus seems that the binding affinity of an oligosaccharide to Con A depends not only on the number of sugar residues which possess free 3-, 4- and 6-hydroxyl groups but also on the accessibility of these sugar residues to Con A. This study also reveals that the sugar binding site of Con A is small and that the interactions between Con A and carbohydrates are extended slightly beyond the single sugar residue that is placed in the binding site.

Design and Performance Evaluation of EXMAN: An EXtended MANchester Data Flow Computer

Data flow computers are high-speed machines in which an instruction is executed as soon as all its operands are available. This paper describes the EXtended MANchester (EXMAN) data flow computer which incorporates three major extensions to the basic Manchester machine. As extensions we provide a multiple matching units scheme, an efficient, implementation of array data structure, and a facility to concurrently execute reentrant routines. A simulator for the EXMAN computer has been coded in the discrete event simulation language, SIMULA 67, on the DEC 1090 system. Performance analysis studies have been conducted on the simulated EXMAN computer to study the effectiveness of the proposed extensions. The performance experiments have been carried out using three sample problems: matrix multiplication, Bresenham's line drawing algorithm, and the polygon scan-conversion algorithm.

Trait components provide tools to dissect the genetic susceptibility of migraine

The commonly used "end diagnosis" phenotype that is adopted in linkage and association studies of complex traits is likely to represent an oversimplified model of the genetic background of a disease. This is also likely to be the case for common types of migraine, for which no convincingly associated genetic variants have been reported. In headache disorders, most genetic studies have used end diagnoses of the International Headache Society (IHS) classification as phenotypes. Here, we introduce an alternative strategy; we use trait components--individual clinical symptoms of migraine--to determine affection status in genomewide linkage analyses of migraine-affected families. We identified linkage between several traits and markers on chromosome 4q24 (highest LOD score under locus heterogeneity [HLOD] 4.52), a locus we previously reported to be linked to the end diagnosis migraine with aura. The pulsation trait identified a novel locus on 17p13 (HLOD 4.65). Additionally, a trait combination phenotype (IHS full criteria) revealed a locus on 18q12 (HLOD 3.29), and the age at onset trait revealed a locus on 4q28 (HLOD 2.99). Furthermore, suggestive or nearly suggestive evidence of linkage to four additional loci was observed with the traits phonophobia (10q22) and aggravation by physical exercise (12q21, 15q14, and Xp21), and, interestingly, these loci have been linked to migraine in previous studies. Our findings suggest that the use of symptom components of migraine instead of the end diagnosis provides a useful tool in stratifying the sample for genetic studies.