What We Don't Know Can Hurt Us: Clinical Inference Bias and Constructed Memories of Sexual Abuse.

The false memory/recovered memory debate, research regarding the malleability of memory, and the current lack of methods for validating recovered memories all support the view that heightened care is required of therapists dealing with clients whom they suspect have been sexually abused. The judgmental heuristics that underlie the major clinical inference biases of confirmatory bias, biased covariation, base rate fallacies, and schematic processing errors are all relevant to the processes leading to therapist-client constructions of memories of sexual abuse. Suggestions for minimizing each of these biases are offered. Personal motivations of the client and client suggestibility are factors that may contribute to the construction of memories of sexual abuse, and suggestions for minimizing the impact of these motivations are offered. In conclusion, general suggestions for minimizing the impact of clinical inference biases within the sexual abuse treatment context are summarized.

O nexo causal entre crédito rural e crescimento do produto agropecuário na economia brasileira

O nexo causal entre desenvolvimento financeiro e crescimento econômico vem ganhando destaque na literatura desde o início dos anos 1990. As principais linhas teóricas nessa área buscam demonstrar qual a significância da relação e o sentido da causalidade, se houver. Causalidade unidirecional no sentido do desenvolvimento financeiro para o crescimento econômico, bicausalidade entre ambos, e causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento para o desenvolvimento financeiro, são as principais hipóteses testadas nas pesquisas empíricas. O presente trabalho de tese tem por objetivo avaliar o nexo causal entre crédito (como um indicador do desenvolvimento financeiro) e crescimento no setor agropecuário brasileiro. O crédito rural como proporção do PIB agropecuário cresceu substancialmente desde meados da década de 90, passando de 15,44% em 1996 para 65,24% em 2014. Ao longo do período 1969-2014, a razão média anual entre crédito rural e PIB agropecuário foi de 43,87%. No mesmo período, o produto agropecuário cresceu em média 3,76% ao ano. Questiona-se se no mercado rural o crédito causa o crescimento agropecuário, se ocorre causalidade reversa ou se se opera a hipótese de bicausalidade. Para avaliar o nexo causal entre essas duas variáveis econômica foram empregados quatro procedimentos metodológicos: teste de causalidade de Granger em uma representação VAR com a abordagem de Toda e Yamamoto, teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS), teste de causalidade de Granger em um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive-Distributed Lag) e teste de causalidade de Granger no domínio da frequência, com o uso do método de Breitung e Candelon. Os resultados mostram de forma uniforme a presença de causalidade unidirecional do crédito rural para o crescimento do produto agropecuário. Causalidade reversa, no sentido do crescimento agropecuário para o crédito rural, não foi detectada de forma significativa em nenhum dos quatro métodos empregados. A não detecção de bicausalidade pode ser uma evidência do impacto da forte política de subsídio governamental ao crédito rural. A decisão do Governo quanto ao montante anual de crédito rural disponível a taxas de juros subsidiadas pode estar impedindo que o desempenho do setor, medido pela sua taxa de crescimento, exerça uma influência significativa na dinâmica do crédito rural. Os resultados também abrem a possibilidade a testar a hipótese de exogeneidade do crédito rural, o que seria uma extensão direta dos resultados obtidos.

Concepciones sobre las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) y sus implicaciones educativas: un estudio exploratorio con profesorado de la provincia de Ñuble, Chile

El propósito de este estudio fue conocer las concepciones de profesores de educación primaria sobre las tecnologías educativas en dos dimensiones: a) conocimiento de las tecnologías de la información y comunicación; y b) creencias sobre el uso educativo que el profesorado da a estas herramientas. Se opta por un enfoque metodológico cuantitativo y un diseño no-experimental descriptivo del tipo encuesta. El análisis de los datos se realizó mediante paquete estadístico SPSS 14.0 y las técnicas utilizadas fueron descriptivos, frecuencias y porcentajes, técnicas de reducción de datos (análisis factorial) e inferencia estadística (comparación de medias y porcentajes). Los resultados demuestran que la mayoría de los profesores reconocen el interés que las tecnologías despiertan en el alumnado y las oportunidades de aprendizaje que ofrecen principalmente en relación con los diferentes ritmos de aprendizaje y las necesidades educativas especiales. Se identifica la búsqueda de información como una competencia fundamental, así como se evidencia que existe una relación causal entre el nivel de formación, la importancia que el profesor otorga al recurso y el uso educativo. Los resultados hacen aconsejable promover programas de formación continua en esta área y fortalecer la formación inicial docente.

Using causal maps to support ex-post assessment of social impacts of dams

This paper presents the results of an ex-post assessment of two important dams in Brazil. The study follows the principles of Social Impact Management, which offer a suitable framework for analyzing the complex social transformations triggered by hydroelectric dams. In the implementation of this approach, participative causal maps were used to identify the ex-post social impacts of the Porto Primavera and Rosana dams on the community of Porto Rico, located along the High Paraná River. We found that in the operation of dams there are intermediate causes of a political nature, stemming from decisions based on values and interests not determined by neutral, exclusively technical reasons; and this insight opens up an area of action for managing the negative impacts of dams.

Causal Maps and Indirect Influences Analysis in the Diagnosis of Second-Home Tourism Impacts

This paper proposes a method for diagnosing the impacts of second-home tourism and illustrates it for a Mediterranean Spanish destination. This method proposes the application of network analysis software to the analysis of causal maps in order to create a causal network model based on stakeholder-identified impacts. The main innovation is the analysis of indirect relations in causal maps for the identification of the most influential nodes in the model. The results show that the most influential nodes are of a political nature, which contradicts previous diagnoses identifying technical planning as the ultimate cause of problems.

Inference of binding affinity from neuronal receptors in humans

Tese de mestrado, Bioinformática e Biologia Computacional (Bioinformática), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Intracranial EEG correlates of implicit relational inference within the hippocampus

Drawing inferences from past experiences enables adaptive behavior in future situations. Inference has been shown to depend on hippocampal processes. Usually, inference is considered a deliberate and effortful mental act which happens during retrieval, and requires the focus of our awareness. Recent fMRI studies hint at the possibility that some forms of hippocampus-dependent inference can also occur during encoding and possibly also outside of awareness. Here, we sought to further explore the feasibility of hippocampal implicit inference, and specifically address the temporal evolution of implicit inference using intracranial EEG. Presurgical epilepsy patients with hippocampal depth electrodes viewed a sequence of word pairs, and judged the semantic fit between two words in each pair. Some of the word pairs entailed a common word (e.g.,‘winter - red’, ‘red - cat’) such that an indirect relation was established in following word pairs (e.g, ‘winter - cat’). The behavioral results suggested that drawing inference implicitly from past experience is feasible because indirect relations seemed to foster ‘fit’ judgments while the absence of indirect relations fostered 'do not fit' judgments, even though the participants were unaware of the indirect relations. A event-related potential (ERP) difference emerging 400 ms post-stimulus was evident in the hippocampus during encoding, suggesting that indirect relations were already established automatically during encoding of the overlapping word pairs. Further ERP differences emerged later post-stimulus (1500 ms), were modulated by the participants' responses and were evident during encoding and test. Furthermore, response-locked ERP effects were evident at test. These ERP effects could hence be a correlate of the interaction of implicit memory with decision-making. Together, the data map out a time-course in which the hippocampus automatically integrates memories from discrete but related episodes to implicitly influence future decision making.

Synthesis of information on roadway geometric causal factors Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Program and Policy Planning, Washington, D.C.

Construction of a comprehensive causal network. Volume 2: literature review and bibliographies. Phase II report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Construction of a comprehensive causal network, phase III: final report (volume I).

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

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