Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Relationship of dayside auroral precipitations to the open-closed separatrix and the pattern of convective flow

The implications are discussed of acceleration of magnetospheric ions by reflection off two magnetopause Alfvén waves, launched by the reconnection site into the inflow regions on both sides of the boundary. The effects of these waves on the ion populations, predicted using the model described by Lockwood et al. [1996], offer a physical interpretation of all the various widely used classifications of precipitation into the dayside ionosphere, namely, central plasma sheet, dayside boundary plasma sheet (BPS), void, low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), cusp, mantle, and polar cap. The location of the open-closed boundary and the form of the convection flow pattern are discussed in relation to the regions in which these various precipitations are typically found. Specifically, the model predicts that both the LLBL and the dayside BPS precipitations are on newly opened field lines and places the convection reversal within the LLBL, as is often observed. It is shown that this offers solutions to a number of paradoxes and problems that arise if the LLBL and BPS precipitations are thought of as being on closed field lines. This model is also used to make quantitive predictions of the longitudinal extent and latitudinal width of the cusp, as a function of solar wind density.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.

Beyond description to pattern: The contribution of Batesonian epistemology to critical realist research

This paper proposes a limitation to epistemological claims to theory building prevalent in critical realist research. While accepting the basic ontological and epistemological positions of the perspective as developed by Roy Bhaskar, it is argued that application in social science has relied on sociological concepts to explain the underlying generative mechanisms, and that in many cases this has been subject to the effects of an anthropocentric constraint. A novel contribution to critical realist research comes from the work and ideas of Gregory Bateson. This is in service of two central goals of critical realism, namely an abductive route to theory building and a commitment to interdisciplinarity. Five aspects of Bateson’s epistemology are introduced: (1) difference, (2) logical levels of abstraction, (3) recursive causal loops, (4) the logic of metaphor, and (5) Bateson’s theory of mind. The comparison between Bateson and Bhaskar’s ideas is seen as a form of double description, illustrative of the point being raised. The paper concludes with an appeal to critical realists to start exploring the writing and outlook of Bateson himself.

Analysis of dietary pattern impact on weight status for personalised nutrition through on-line advice: the Food4Me Spanish cohort

Obesity prevalence is increasing. The management of this condition requires a detailed analysis of the global risk factors in order to develop personalised advice. This study is aimed to identify current dietary patterns and habits in Spanish population interested in personalised nutrition and investigate associations with weight status. Self-reported dietary and anthropometrical data from the Spanish participants in the Food4Me study, were used in a multidimensional exploratory analysis to define specific dietary profiles. Two opposing factors were obtained according to food groups’ intake: Factor 1 characterised by a more frequent consumption of traditionally considered unhealthy foods; and Factor 2, where the consumption of “Mediterranean diet” foods was prevalent. Factor 1 showed a direct relationship with BMI (β = 0.226; r2 = 0.259; p < 0.001), while the association with Factor 2 was inverse (β = −0.037; r2 = 0.230; p = 0.348). A total of four categories were defined (Prudent, Healthy, Western, and Compensatory) through classification of the sample in higher or lower adherence to each factor and combining the possibilities. Western and Compensatory dietary patterns, which were characterized by high-density foods consumption, showed positive associations with overweight prevalence. Further analysis showed that prevention of overweight must focus on limiting the intake of known deleterious foods rather than exclusively enhance healthy products.

A new pattern for historical geography: working with enthusiast communities and public history

This paper argues for the adoption of participatory approaches in historical geography, drawing on the author's experience in working with enthusiast communities in the UK in the context of collaborative research with the Science Museum and ideas of public history and geography.

A tillering inhibition gene influences root-shoot carbon partitioning and pattern of water use to improve wheat productivity in rainfed environments

Genetic modification of shoot and root morphology has potential to improve water and nutrient 19 uptake of wheat crops in rainfed environments. Near-isogenic lines (NILs) varying for a tillering 20 inhibition (tin) gene and representing multiple genetic backgrounds were investigated in contrasting 21 controlled environments for shoot and root growth. Leaf area, shoot and root biomass were similar 22 until tillering whereupon reduced tillering in tin-containing NILs produced reductions of up to 60% in 23 total leaf area and biomass, and increases in total root length of up to 120% and root biomass to 24 145%. Together, root-to-shoot ratio increased two-fold with the tin gene. The influence of tin on shoot 25 and root growth was greatest in the cv. Banks genetic background, particularly in the biculm-selected 26 NIL, and was typically strongest in cooler environments. A separate de-tillering study confirmed 27 greater root-to-shoot ratios with regular tiller removal in non-tin containing genotypes. In validating 28 these observations in a rainfed field study, the tin allele had a negligible effect on seedling growth but 29 was associated with significantly (P<0.05) reduced tiller number (-37%), leaf area index (-26%) and 30 spike number (-35%) to reduce plant biomass (-19%) at anthesis. Root biomass, root-to-shoot ratio at 31 early stem elongation and root depth at maturity were increased in tin-containing NILs. Soil water use 32 was slowed in tin-containing NILs resulting in greater water availability, greater stomatal 33 conductance, cooler canopy temperatures and maintenance of green leaf area during grain-filling. 34 Together these effects contributed to increases in harvest index and grain yield. In both the controlled 35 and field environments, the tin gene was commonly associated with increased root length and biomass 36 but the significant influence of genetic background and environment suggests careful assessment of 37 tin-containing progeny in selection for genotypic increases in root growth.

Corticomuscular coherence modulation with the pattern of finger force coordination

We assess the corticomuscular coherence (CMC) of the contralateral primary motor cortex and the hand muscles during a finger force-tracking task and explore whether the pattern of finger coordination has an impact on the CMC level. Six healthy subjects (three men and three women) were recruited to conduct the force-tracking tasks comprising two finger patterns, i.e., natural combination of index and middle fingers and unnatural combination of index and middle fingers (i.e., simultaneously producing equal force strength in index and middle finger). During the conducting of the tasks with right index and middle finger, MEG and sEMG signals were recorded from left primary motor cortex (M1) and right flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS), respectively; the contralateral CMC was calculated to assess the neuromuscular interaction. Finger force-tracking tasks of Common-IM only induce beta-band CMC, whereas Uncommon-IM tasks produce CMC in both beta and low-gamma band. Compared to the force-tracking tasks of Common-IM, the Uncommon-IM task is associated with the most intensive contralateral CMC. Our study demonstrated that the pattern of finger coordination had significant impact on the CMC between the contralateral M1 and hand muscles, and more corticomuscular interaction was necessary for unnaturally coordinated finger activities to regulate the fixed neural drive of hand muscles.

The effect of a single episode of antimicrobial photodynamic therapy in the treatment of experimental periodontitis. Microbiological profile and cytokine pattern in the dog mandible

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a single application of antimicrobial photodynamic therapy (aPDT) on microbiological profile and cytokine pattern in dogs. Periodontal disease was induced by placing 3.0 silk ligatures around the mandibular pre-molars bilaterally during 8 weeks. The dogs were randomly treated with aPDT using a dye/laser system, scaling and root planning (SRP), or with the association of treatments (SRP + aPDT). Plaque samples were collected at baseline, 1, 3, and 4 weeks, and the mean counts of 40 species were determined using DNA-DNA hybridization. Gingival biopsies were removed and the expression of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), receptor activator of NF-kB ligand (RANKL), osteoprotegerin (OPG), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP-1), interleukin (IL) 6, IL-10 and total bacterial load by analysis of 16 S rRNA gene were evaluated through real-time PCR. The results shows that the levels of the majority of the species were reduced 1 week post-therapy for all treatments, however, an increase in counts of Prevotella intermedia (p = 0.00), Prevotella. nigrescens (p = 0.00) and Tannerella forsythia (p = 0.00) was observed for aPDT and SRP + aPDT. After 4 weeks, a regrowth of Porphyromonas gingivalis (p = 0.00) and Treponema denticola (p = 0.00), was observed for all treatments. Also, a strikingly reduction of counts on counts of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans was observed for the aPDT (p = 0.00). For the cytokine pattern, the results were similar for all treatments, and a reduction in the expression of cytokines and bacterial load was observed throughout the study. Our results suggest that SRP, aPDT in a single application, and SRP + aPDT affects different bacterial species and have similar effects on the expression of cytokines evaluated during the treatment of ligature-induced periodontitis.

Sympathetic nerve activity is decreased during device-guided slow breathing

It is known that slow breathing (<10 breaths min(-1)) reduces blood pressure ( BP), but the mechanisms involved in this phenomenon are not completely clear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the acute responses of the muscle sympathetic nerve activity, BP and heart rate (HR), using device-guided slow breathing ( breathe with interactive music (BIM)) or calm music. In all, 27 treated mild hypertensives were enrolled. Muscle sympathetic nerve activity, BP and HR were measured for 5min before the use of the device (n=14) or while subjects listened to calm music (n=13), it was measured again for 15 min while in use and finally, 5min after the interventions. BIM device reduced respiratory rate from 16 +/- 3 beats per minute (b.p.m) to 5.5 +/- 1.8 b.p.m (P<0.05), calm music did not affect this variable. Both interventions reduced systolic (-6 and -4mmHg for both) and diastolic BPs (-4mmHg and -3mmHg, respectively) and did not affect the HR (-1 and -2 b.p.m respectively). Only the BIM device reduced the sympathetic nerve activity of the sample (-8bursts min(-1)). In conclusion, both device-guided slow breathing and listening to calm music have decreased BP but only the device-guided slow breathing was able to reduce the peripheral sympathetic nerve activity. Hypertension Research ( 2010) 33, 708-712; doi: 10.1038/hr.2010.74; published online 3 June 2010

Under-reporting of energy intake is more prevalent in a healthy dietary pattern cluster

The aim of the present study was to determine whether under-reporting rates vary between dietary pattern Clusters. Subjects were sixty-five Brazilian women. During 3 weeks, anthropometric data were collected. total energy expenditure (TEE) was determined by the doubly labelled water method and diet Was Measured. Energy intake (El) and the daily frequency of consumption per 1000 kJ of twenty-two food groups were obtained from a FFQ. These frequencies were entered into a Cluster analysis procedure in order to obtain dietary patterns. Under-reporters were defined Lis those who did not lose more than 1 kg of body weight during the study and presented EI:TEE less than 0.82. Three dietary pattern clusters were identified and named according to their most recurrent food groups: sweet foods (SW). starchy foods (ST) and health), (H). Subjects from the healthy cluster had the lowest mean EI:TEE (SW = 0.86, ST = 0.71 and H = 0.58: P = 0.003) and EI - TEE (SW = -0.49 MJ, ST = - 3.20 MJ and H = -5.09 MJ; P = 0.008). The proportion of Under-reporters was 45.2 (95 % CI 35.5, 55.0) % in the SW Cluster: 58.3 (95 % CI 48.6, 68.0) % in the ST Cluster and 70.0 (95 % CI 61.0, 79) % in the H cluster (P=0.34). Thus, in Brazilian women, Under-reporting of El is not uniformly distributed among, dietary pattern clusters and tends to be more severe among subjects from the healthy cluster. This cluster is more consistent with both dietary guidelines and with what lay individuals usually consider `healthy eating`.

A two-armed pattern in flickering maps of the nova-like variable UU aquarii

We report the analysis of a uniform sample of 31 light curves of the nova-like variable UU Aqr with eclipse-mapping techniques. The data were combined to derive eclipse maps of the average steady-light component, the long-term brightness changes, and the low- and high-frequency flickering components. The long-term variability responsible for the ""low-brightness`` and ""high-brightness`` states is explained in terms of the response of a viscous disk to changes of 20%-50% in the mass transfer rate from the donor star. Low- and high-frequency flickering maps are dominated by emission from two asymmetric arcs reminiscent of those seen in the outbursting dwarf nova IP Peg, and they are similarly interpreted as manifestations of a tidally induced spiral shock wave in the outer regions of a large accretion disk. The asymmetric arcs are also seen in the map of the steady light aside from the broad brightness distribution of a roughly steady-state disk. The arcs account for 25% of the steady-light flux and are a long-lasting feature in the accretion disk of UU Aqr. We infer an opening angle of 10 degrees +/- 3 degrees for the spiral arcs. The results suggest that the flickering in UU Aqr is caused by turbulence generated after the collision of disk gas with the density-enhanced spiral wave in the accretion disk.