Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Experimental examination of solute transport by surface runoff from low-angle slopes

The removal of chemicals in solution, by overland flow from agricultural land has the potential to be a significant source of chemical loss from zero-till and surface mulched farming systems. The objective of this study was to determine the magnitude of solute loss by surface runoff from agricultural systems. Previous experiments have enhanced the understanding of the exchange process, but the initial soil conditions together with the tracer application method in these experiments have meant that in some cases the results have limited applicability to field situations. In this study, two different sets of experiments were carried out to determine the magnitude of solute loss by surface runoff. These experiments entailed the surface application of bromide to (1) field scale plots 18 m long by 2 m wide and (2) repacked soil cores 236 mm in diameter; followed by the application of simulated rainfall in both cases. The most substantial finding of the field experiments was that the quantities of solute in surface runoff varied greatly with soil type and structure (0.07-14.9% of the applied bromide). Also, on some soils, large quantities of tracer were measured in the surface runoff even after several hours of infiltration. The experiments on soil cores showed that soil structure plays an important role in the quantity of chemical that may be transported in the surface runoff. These field results showed that, in certain systems, solute movement by overland flow is an important transport mechanism, which should be considered when budgeting for chemical loss. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust Mixture Modelling Using the t Distribution

Normal mixture models are being increasingly used to model the distributions of a wide variety of random phenomena and to cluster sets of continuous multivariate data. However, for a set of data containing a group or groups of observations with longer than normal tails or atypical observations, the use of normal components may unduly affect the fit of the mixture model. In this paper, we consider a more robust approach by modelling the data by a mixture of t distributions. The use of the ECM algorithm to fit this t mixture model is described and examples of its use are given in the context of clustering multivariate data in the presence of atypical observations in the form of background noise.

Expression of POU, Sox, and Pax genes in the brain ganglia of the tropical abalone Haliotis asinina

In gastropod mollusks, neuroendocrine cells in the anterior ganglia have been shown to regulate growth and reproduction. As a first step toward understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying the regulation of these physiological processes in the tropical abalone Haliotis asinina, ive have identified sets of POU, Sox, and Pax transcription factor genes that are expressed in these ganglia. Using highly degenerate oligonucleotide primers designed to anneal to conserved codons in each of these gene families, we have amplified by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction 2 POU genes (HasPOU-III and HasPOU-IV), 2 Sox genes (HasSox-B and HasSox-C), and two Pax genes (HasPax-258 and HaxPax-6). Analyses with gene-specific primers indicated that the 6 genes are expressed in the cerebral and pleuropedal ganglia of both reproductively active and spent adults, in a number of sensory structures, and in a subset of other adult tissues.

Causal loops and the independence of causal facts

According to Hugh Mellor in Real Time II (1998, Ch. 12), assuming the logical independence of causal facts and the 'law of large numbers', causal loops are impossible because if they were possible they would produce inconsistent sets of frequencies. I clarify the argument, and argue that it would be preferable to abandon the relevant independence assumption in the case of causal loops.

ERP 'old/new' effects: memory strength and decisional factor(s)

Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while subjects made old/new recognition judgments on new unstudied words and old words which had been presented at study either once ('weak') or three times ('strong'). The probability of an 'old' response was significantly higher for strong than weak words and significantly higher for weak than new words. Comparisons were made initially between ERPs to new, weak and strong words, and subsequently between ERPs associated with six strength-by-response conditions. The N400 component was found to be modulated by memory trace strength in a graded manner. Its amplitude was most negative in new word ERPs and most positive in strong word ERPs. This 'N400 strength effect' was largest at the left parietal electrode (in ear-referenced ERPs). The amplitude of the late positive complex (LPC) effect was sensitive to decision accuracy (and perhaps confidence). Its amplitude was larger in ERPs evoked by words attracting correct versus incorrect recognition decisions. The LPC effect had a left > right, centro-parietal scalp topography (in ear-referenced ERPs). Hence, whereas, the majority of previous ERP studies of episodic recognition have interpreted results from the perspective of dual-process models, we provide alternative interpretations of N400 and LPC old/new effects in terms of memory strength and decisional factor(s). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Embracing ligands. A synthetic strategy towards new nitrogen-thioether multidentate ligands and characterization of the cobalt(III) complexes

The synthesis of the hexadentate ligand 2,2,9,9-tetra(methyleneamine)-4,7-dithiadecane (EtN(4)S(2)amp) is reported. The ligand is of a type in which bifurcations of the chain occur at atoms other than donor atoms. The cobalt(III) complex [Co(EtN(4)S(2)amp)](3+) (1) was isolated and characterized. The synthetic methodology also results in a number of by-products, notably 2,9,9-tris(methyleneamine)-9-methylenehydroxy-4,7-dithiadecane (Et(HO)N(3)S(2)amp) and an eleven-membered pendant arm macrocyclic ligand 6,10-dimethyl-6,10-bis(methyleneamine)-1,4-dithia-8-azaacycloundec-7- ene (dmatue). The complexes [Co(Et(HO)N(3)S(2)amp)](3+) (2), in which the alcohol is coordinated to the metal ion, and [Co(dmatue)Cl](2+) (4) were isolated and characterized. Et(HO)N(3)S(2)amp also undergoes complexation with cobalt(III) to produce two isomers endo-[Co(Et(HO) N(3)S(2)amp)Cl](2+) (endo-3) and exo-[Co(Et(HO) N(3)S(2)amp)Cl](2+) (exo-3), both with an uncoordinated alcohol group. endo- 3 has the alcohol positioned cis, and exo-3 trans, to the sixth metal coordination site. Reaction of 1 with isobutyraldehyde, paraformaldehyde and base in dimethylformamide results in the encapsulated complex [Co(1,5,5,9,13,13-hexamethyl-18,21-dithia-3,7,11,15-tetraazabicyclo[7.7.6]docosa- 3,14-diene)](ClO4)(3) . 2H(2)O ([Co(Me(6)docosadieneN(4)S(2))](3+) ( 5). All complexes have been characterized by single crystal X-ray study. The low-temperature (11 K) absorption spectrum of 1 has been measured in Nafion films with spin-allowed (1)A(1g) --> T-1(1g) and (1)A(1g) --> T-1(2g) and spin forbidden (1)A(1g) --> T-3(1g) and (1)A(1g) --> T-3(2g) bands observed. The octahedral ligand-field parameters were determined (10Dq = 22570 cm(-1), B = 551 cm(-1); C = 3500 cm(-1)). For 5 10Dq and B were determined (20580 cm(-1); 516 cm(-1), respectively) and compared with those for similar expanded cavity complexes [Co(Me(8)tricosatrieneN(6))](3+) and [Co(Me(5)tricosatrieneN(6))](3+).

Molecular evidence for definition of genera in the Oxylobium group (Fabaceae : Mirbelieae)

The circumscription of Oxylobium and related genera has been problematic for nearly 200 years. Traditional definitions of genera in the group have relied on morphological features of the leaves, flower, and fruit that overlap extensively between genera. Therefore sequences of cpDNA (trnL-F intron and spacer) and nrDNA (ITS) were used to estimate the phylogeny of the group in an attempt to redefine the genera as monophyletic groups. Oxylobium sens. str. was found to be a well supported clade in both data sets, with the inclusion of Mirbelia oxylobioides. No other genus in the group was supported by these data, except Gastrolobium sens. lat. Some species groups within Chorizema, Mirbelia, and Podolobium were supported but relationships among these, Oxylobium and Gastrolobium differed significantly between the chloroplast and nuclear data sets. No group supported by the molecular data had a morphological synapomorphy, not even Oxylobium or Gastrolobium. Therefore it may be necessary to adopt a much broader generic concept in this group than has been done previously. Incongruence between the two molecular data sets, and very short internal basal branches in both, suggest a rapid early radiation in this group, possibly combined with hybridization and lineage sorting.

Good readers use context-sensitive grapheme-phoneme correspondences

Fifth-grade children were given a series of word reading tasks. First, two sets of 16 disyllabic words with medial VCV spellings, and with a long initial vowel were selected, varying in frequency but with similar word-initial segments. Nonwords were derived from these sets of words by exchanging initial onsets. Children read these nonwords in a first testing session. In a second test session, children were given the Woodcock Word Identification Test and the set of analogue words from which the nonwords were derived. Initial analyses examined only nonwords derived from words that were correctly read. Both sets of nonwords were more likely to be read with a long initial vowel than a short initial vowel, although this tendency was stronger in nonwords derived from high frequency words. Furthennore, Word Identification ability showed a strong relationship with the preference for long initial vowels in this type of disyllabic nonword, both for nonwords derived from known analogues and for nonwords derived from words that children could not read correctly. This preference was also correlated with the preference for context-sensitive grapheme-phoneme correspondences in the reading of ambiguous monosyllabic nonwords.These results have strong implications for current theories of word reading.

Image calibration to like-values in mapping shallow water quality from multitemporal data

The applicability of image calibration to like-values in mapping water quality parameters from multitemporal images is explored, Six sets of water samples were collected at satellite overpasses over Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Australia. Analysis of these samples reveals that waters in this shallow bay are mostly TSS-dominated, even though they are occasionally dominated by chlorophyll as well. Three of the images were calibrated to a reference image based on invariant targets. Predictive models constructed from the reference image were applied to estimating total suspended sediment (TSS) and Secchi depth from another image at a discrepancy of around 35 percent. Application of the predictive model for TSS concentration to another image acquired at a time of different water types resulted in a discrepancy of 152 percent. Therefore, image calibration to like-values could be used to reliably map certain water quality parameters from multitemporal TM images so long as the water type under study remains unchanged. This method is limited in that the mapped results could be rather inaccurate if the water type under study has changed considerably. Thus, the approach needs to be refined in shallow water from multitemporal satellite imagery.

Adjusting prices in the multiple-partners assignment game

Starting with an initial price vector, prices are adjusted in order to eliminate the excess demand and at the same time to keep the transfers to the sellers as low as possible. In each step of the auction, to which set of sellers should those transfers be made is the key issue in the description of the algorithm. We assume additively separable utilities and introduce a novel distinction by considering multiple sellers owing multiple identical objects and multiple buyers with an exogenously defined quota, consuming more than one object but at most one unit of a seller`s good and having multi-dimensional payoffs. This distinction induces a necessarily more complicated construction of the over-demanded sets than the constructions of these sets for the other assignment games. For this approach, our mechanism yields the buyer-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff, which equals the buyer-optimal stable payoff. The symmetry of the model allows to getting the seller-optimal stable payoff and the seller-optimal competitive equilibrium payoff can then be also derived.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Reproductive biology of Cyrtopodium polyphyllum (Orchidaceae): a Cyrtopodiinae pollinated by deceit

The genus Cyrtopodium comprises about 42 species distributed from southern Florida to northern Argentina. Cyrtopodium polyphyllum occurs on rocks or in sandy soils, in restinga vegetation along the Brazilian coast. It flowers during the wet season and its inflorescences produce a high number of resupinate yellow flowers. Cyrtopodium polyphyllum offers no rewards to its pollinators, but mimics the yellow, reward-producing flowers of nearby growing Stigmaphyllon arenicola (oil) and Crotalaria vitellina (nectar) individuals. Several species of bee visit flowers of C. polyphyllum, but only two species of Centris (Centris tarsata and Centris labrosa) act as pollinators. Visits to flowers of C. polyphyllum were scarce and, as a consequence, low-fruit set was recorded under natural conditions. Such low-fruit production contrasts with the number of fruits each plant bears after manual pollination, suggesting deficient pollen transfer among plants. C. polyphyllum is self-compatible and has a high-fruit set in both manual self- and cross-pollinated flowers. Furthermore, fruits (2%) are formed by self-pollination assisted by rain. This facultative self-pollination mechanism is an important strategy to provide reproductive assurance to C. polyphyllum as rainfall restricts the foraging activity of its pollinating bees. Fruits derived from treatments and under natural conditions had a similar high rate of potentially viable seed. Moreover, these seeds had a low polyembryony rate, which did not exceed 5%. C. polyphyllum acts by deceit involving optical signals and exploits other yellow-flowered species within its habitat by attracting their pollinators. The low capsule production under natural conditions was expected, but its reproductive success is assured through self-pollination by rain and high seed viability.