Volatile isoprenoid emissions from plastid to planet

Approximately 1–2% of net primary production by land plants is re-emitted to the atmosphere as isoprene and monoterpenes. These emissions play major roles in atmospheric chemistry and air pollution–climate interactions. Phenomenological models have been developed to predict their emission rates, but limited understanding of the function and regulation of these emissions has led to large uncertainties in model projections of air quality and greenhouse gas concentrations. We synthesize recent advances in diverse fields, from cell physiology to atmospheric remote sensing, and use this information to propose a simple conceptual model of volatile isoprenoid emission based on regulation of metabolism in the chloroplast. This may provide a robust foundation for scaling up emissions from the cellular to the global scale.

Measurements of atmospheric electricity aloft

Measurements of the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere above the surface have been made for over 200 years, from a variety of different platforms, including kites, balloons, rockets and aircraft. From these measurements, a great deal of information about the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere has been gained, assisting our understanding of the global atmospheric electric circuit, thunderstorm electrification and lightning generation mechanisms, discovery of transient luminous events above thunderstorms, and many other electrical phenomena. This paper surveys the history of atmospheric electrical measurements aloft, from the earliest manned balloon ascents to current day observations with free balloons and aircraft. Measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters in a range of meteorological conditions are described, including clear air conditions, polluted conditions, non-thunderstorm clouds, and thunderstorm clouds, spanning a range of atmospheric conditions, from fair weather, to the most electrically active.

Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the 20th to the 21st centuries as simulated in twelve CMIP5 models is analysed. The RCP 8.5 high emission scenario runs are used to represent the 21st century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins (2003a). It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) index in viewing equatorward cut-off lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the mid-latitude storm-track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the 21st century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean 21st century winter poleward shift of high- latitude blocking, but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the 21st century model runs is again found. However in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over Eastern Europe and Western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe: observed trends and atmospheric forcing

Temperature and precipitation are major forcing factors influencing grapevine phenology and yield, as well as wine quality. Bioclimatic indices describing the suitability of a particular region for wine production are a commonly used tool for viticultural zoning. For this research these indices were computed for Europe by using the E-OBS gridded daily temperature and precipitation data set for the period from 1950 to 2009. Results showed strong regional contrasts based on the different index patterns and reproduced the wide diversity of local conditions that largely explain the quality and diversity of grapevines being grown across Europe. Owing to the strong inter-annual variability in the indices, a trend analysis and a principal component analysis were applied together with an assessment of their mean patterns. Significant trends were identified in the Winkler and Huglin indices, particularly for southwestern Europe. Four statistically significant orthogonal modes of variability were isolated for the Huglin index (HI), jointly representing 82% of the total variance in Europe. The leading mode was largely dominant (48% of variance) and mainly reflected the observed historical long-term changes. The other 3 modes corresponded to regional dipoles within Europe. Despite the relevance of local and regional climatic characteristics to grapevines, it was demonstrated via canonical correlation analysis that the observed inter-annual variability of the HI was strongly controlled by the large-scale atmospheric circulation during the growing season (April to September).

The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land-use types: coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model

A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Large-scale atmospheric dynamics of the wet winter 2009–2010 and its impact on hydrology in Portugal

The anomalously wet winter of 2010 had a very important impact on the Portuguese hydrological system. Owing to the detrimental effects of reduced precipitation in Portugal on the environmental and socio-economic systems, the 2010 winter was predominantly beneficial by reversing the accumulated precipitation deficits during the previous hydrological years. The recorded anomalously high precipitation amounts have contributed to an overall increase in river runoffs and dam recharges in the 4 major river basins. In synoptic terms, the winter 2010 was characterised by an anomalously strong westerly flow component over the North Atlantic that triggered high precipitation amounts. A dynamically coherent enhancement in the frequencies of mid-latitude cyclones close to Portugal, also accompanied by significant increases in the occurrence of cyclonic, south and south-westerly circulation weather types, are noteworthy. Furthermore, the prevalence of the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also emphasises the main dynamical features of the 2010 winter. A comparison of the hydrological and atmospheric conditions between the 2010 winter and the previous 2 anomalously wet winters (1996 and 2001) was also carried out to isolate not only their similarities, but also their contrasting conditions, highlighting the limitations of estimating winter precipitation amounts in Portugal using solely the NAO phase as a predictor.

The Empirical Forcing Function as a tool for the diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric anomalies

The time-mean quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation of the atmospheric flow on isobaric surfaces can explicitly include an atmospheric (internal) forcing term of the stationary-eddy flow. In fact, neglecting some non-linear terms in this equation, this forcing can be mathematically expressed as a single function, called Empirical Forcing Function (EFF), which is equal to the material derivative of the time-mean potential vorticity. Furthermore, the EFF can be decomposed as a sum of seven components, each one representing a forcing mechanism of different nature. These mechanisms include diabatic components associated with the radiative forcing, latent heat release and frictional dissipation, and components related to transient eddy transports of heat and momentum. All these factors quantify the role of the transient eddies in forcing the atmospheric circulation. In order to assess the relevance of the EFF in diagnosing large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation, the relationship between the EFF and the occurrence of strong North Atlantic ridges over the Eastern North Atlantic is analyzed, which are often precursors of severe droughts over Western Iberia. For such events, the EFF pattern depicts a clear dipolar structure over the North Atlantic; cyclonic (anticyclonic) forcing of potential vorticity is found upstream (downstream) of the anomalously strong ridges. Results also show that the most significant components are related to the diabatic processes. Lastly, these results highlight the relevance of the EFF in diagnosing large-scale anomalies, also providing some insight into their interaction with different physical mechanisms.

Averaging, slaving and balance dynamics in a simple atmospheric model

We report numerical results from a study of balance dynamics using a simple model of atmospheric motion that is designed to help address the question of why balance dynamics is so stable. The non-autonomous Hamiltonian model has a chaotic slow degree of freedom (representing vortical modes) coupled to one or two linear fast oscillators (representing inertia-gravity waves). The system is said to be balanced when the fast and slow degrees of freedom are separated. We find adiabatic invariants that drift slowly in time. This drift is consistent with a random-walk behaviour at a speed which qualitatively scales, even for modest time scale separations, as the upper bound given by Neishtadt’s and Nekhoroshev’s theorems. Moreover, a similar type of scaling is observed for solutions obtained using a singular perturbation (‘slaving’) technique in resonant cases where Nekhoroshev’s theorem does not apply. We present evidence that the smaller Lyapunov exponents of the system scale exponentially as well. The results suggest that the observed stability of nearly-slow motion is a consequence of the approximate adiabatic invariance of the fast motion.

Atmospheric point discharge current measurements using a temperature-compensated logarithmic current amplifier

Measurements of atmospheric corona currents have been made for over 100 years to indicate the atmospheric electric field. Corona currents vary substantially, in polarity and in magnitude. The instrument described here uses a sharp point sensor connected to a temperature compensated bi-polar logarithmic current amplifier. Calibrations over a range of currents from ±10 fA to ±3 μA and across ±20 ◦C show it has an excellent logarithmic response over six orders of magnitude from 1 pA to 1 μA in both polarities for the range of atmospheric temperatures likely to be encountered in the southern UK. Comparison with atmospheric electric field measurements during disturbed weather confirms that bipolar electric fields induce corona currents of corresponding sign, with magnitudes ∼0.5 μA.

Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors

We introduce a novel technique in which linear regression analysis is applied to clusters of tracked cyclones to statistically assess the factors controlling cyclone development. We illustrate this technique by evaluating the differences between cyclones forming in the west and east North Atlantic (herein termed west and east Atlantic cyclones). Enhanced cyclone intensity 2 days after genesis is found to be associated with deeper upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclone center at the genesis time in both west and east Atlantic cyclones. However, whilst west Atlantic cyclones are also enhanced by the presence of strong fronts, east Atlantic cyclones are not. Instead, east Atlantic cyclones exhibit an enhancement when diabatically generated midlevel potential vorticity is present (with the enhancement being of approximately equal magnitude to that associated with the potential vorticity in the upper-level trough). This is consistent with the paradigm of latent heat release in the warm conveyor belt region playing an important role in the development of east Atlantic cyclones.

The energy-cycle analysis of the interactions between shallow and deep atmospheric convection

Interactions between different convection modes can be investigated using an energy–cycle description under a framework of mass–flux parameterization. The present paper systematically investigates this system by taking a limit of two modes: shallow and deep convection. Shallow convection destabilizes itself as well as the other convective modes by moistening and cooling the environment, whereas deep convection stabilizes itself as well as the other modes by drying and warming the environment. As a result, shallow convection leads to a runaway growth process in its stand–alone mode, whereas deep convection simply damps out. Interaction between these two convective modes becomes a rich problem, even when it is limited to the case with no large–scale forcing, because of these opposing tendencies. Only if the two modes are coupled at a proper level can a self–sustaining system arise, exhibiting a periodic cycle. The present study establishes the conditions for self–sustaining periodic solutions. It carefully documents the behaviour of the two mode system in order to facilitate the interpretation of global model behaviours when this energy–cycle is implemented as a closure into a convection parameterization in future.

Comments on 'Balance and the slow quasimanifold: some explicit results'

The concept of slow vortical dynamics and its role in theoretical understanding is central to geophysical fluid dynamics. It leads, for example, to “potential vorticity thinking” (Hoskins et al. 1985). Mathematically, one imagines an invariant manifold within the phase space of solutions, called the slow manifold (Leith 1980; Lorenz 1980), to which the dynamics are constrained. Whether this slow manifold truly exists has been a major subject of inquiry over the past 20 years. It has become clear that an exact slow manifold is an exceptional case, restricted to steady or perhaps temporally periodic flows (Warn 1997). Thus the concept of a “fuzzy slow manifold” (Warn and Ménard 1986) has been suggested. The idea is that nearly slow dynamics will occur in a stochastic layer about the putative slow manifold. The natural question then is, how thick is this layer? In a recent paper, Ford et al. (2000) argue that Lighthill emission—the spontaneous emission of freely propagating acoustic waves by unsteady vortical flows—is applicable to the problem of balance, with the Mach number Ma replaced by the Froude number F, and that it is a fundamental mechanism for this fuzziness. They consider the rotating shallow-water equations and find emission of inertia–gravity waves at O(F2). This is rather surprising at first sight, because several studies of balanced dynamics with the rotating shallow-water equations have gone beyond second order in F, and found only an exponentially small unbalanced component (Warn and Ménard 1986; Lorenz and Krishnamurthy 1987; Bokhove and Shepherd 1996; Wirosoetisno and Shepherd 2000). We have no technical objection to the analysis of Ford et al. (2000), but wish to point out that it depends crucially on R 1, where R is the Rossby number. This condition requires the ratio of the characteristic length scale of the flow L to the Rossby deformation radius LR to go to zero in the limit F → 0. This is the low Froude number scaling of Charney (1963), which, while originally designed for the Tropics, has been argued to be also relevant to mesoscale dynamics (Riley et al. 1981). If L/LR is fixed, however, then F → 0 implies R → 0, which is the standard quasigeostrophic scaling of Charney (1948; see, e.g., Pedlosky 1987). In this limit there is reason to expect the fuzziness of the slow manifold to be “exponentially thin,” and balance to be much more accurate than is consistent with (algebraic) Lighthill emission.

Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century

Wind generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model (WAM) is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present day and potential future climate conditions represented by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate towards the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in mid-latitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the mid to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward towards a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.