Hot and cold IPO markets : the case of the stock exchange of Mauritius

The aim of this study is to assess the characteristics of the hot and cold IPO markets on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM). The results show that the hot issues exhibit, on average, a greater degree of underpricing than the cold issues, although the hot issue phenomenon is not a significant driving force in explaining this short-run underpricing. The results are consistent with the predictions of the changing risk composition hypothesis in suggesting that firms going public during hot markets are on average relatively more risky. The findings also support the time adverse selection hypothesis in that the firms’ quality dispersion is statistically different between hot and cold markets. Finally, the study concludes that firms which go public during hot markets do not underperform those going public in cold markets over the longer term.

Do long-short speculators destabilize commodity futures markets?

This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of the financialization of commodity futures markets by studying the conditional volatility of long–short commodity portfolios and their conditional correlations with traditional assets (stocks and bonds). Using several groups of trading strategies that hedge fund managers are known to implement, we show that long–short speculators do not cause changes in the volatilities of the portfolios they hold or changes in the conditional correlations between these portfolios and traditional assets. Thus calls for increased regulation of commodity money managers are, at this stage, premature. Additionally, long–short speculators can take comfort in knowing that their trades do not alter the risk and diversification properties of their portfolios.

Reaching the underbanked and unbanked in subsistence markets at the nexus of the formal and informal economy

It is estimated that globally over 2 billion people do not have a bank account, with many more in the developed and developing worlds ‘under-banked’, meaning they have limited access to financial services. Reaching the unbanked and underbanked with appropriate financial services is widely recognised as critical for future global economic growth and prosperity. Drawing upon multidimensional understandings of poverty, and framed by literature on poverty pools, traps and cycles, this paper explores the use of financial products and services in the developing world and critically reflects on their potential role in poverty alleviation and wider sustainable development. Discussions are illustrated with reference to qualitative empirical research undertaken in East and Southern Africa, and a sense-making of the lived financial experiences of low income individuals, households and communities.

Transcending borders with international top management teams: a study of European financial multinational corporations

This paper investigates how changes in firm degree of internationalization are associated with the configuration of top management teams (TMT) based on a dataset of 41 large European firms in the banking and insurance industry, including detailed career profiles of the 264 executives that were serving on the TMTs of these firms at year-end 2002. Our findings suggest firms tend to match top executive profiles to their strategies. Entry into new foreign markets and new cultural zones was found to be associated with higher levels of international capacity at TMT level, whereas changes in international posture per se are not related to TMT international capacity. We discuss the interplay between firm strategies and internal structures in the context of firm internationalization and suggest directions for future research on TMTs

International transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets

This paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major Asian cities. The analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six major Asian cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as Singapore, Japan (Tokyo), Taiwan (Taipei) and Thailand (Bangkok) show positive correlations between the economy's openness and house prices, which is consistent with the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. Interestingly, some region-specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements, which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand–supply imbalances such as Singapore and Bangkok. These results are reasonably robust across several model specifications. The findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies.

Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets

This paper investigates whether bank integration measured by cross-border bank flows can capture the co-movements across housing markets in developed countries by using a spatial dynamic panel model. The transmission can occur through a global banking channel in which global banks intermediate wholesale funding to local banks. Changes in financial conditions are passed across borders through the banks’ balance-sheet exposure to credit, currency, maturity, and funding risks resulting in house price spillovers. While controlling for country-level and global factors, we find significant co-movement across housing markets of countries with proportionally high bank integration. Bank integration can better capture house price co-movements than other measures of economic integration. Once we account for bank exposure, other spatial linkages traditionally used to account for return co-movements across region – such as trade, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, geographic proximity, etc. – become insignificant. Moreover, we find that the co-movement across housing markets decreases for countries with less developed mortgage markets characterized by fixed mortgage rate contracts, low limits of loan-to-value ratios and no mortgage equity withdrawal.

A review of Islamic mutual funds’ financial performance and investment style in Muslim and non-Muslim countries

Islamic finance has grown beyond its reputation of providing small-scale banking options and now provides investment and financing options for complex large-scale commercial transactions. Islamic investments are one area that has attracted the attention of investors due to its performance, especially during the economic downturn. The Shari’ah compliance nature of Islamic funds provides an opportunity for those Muslim investors to be part of the global investment sector who have previously been reluctant to invest in conventional mutual funds. The fact that the funds’ managers are prohibited from investing in activities such as weapons production, alcohol production and interest-bearing finance operations, makes Islamic mutual funds also attractive for those Non-Muslim investors who wish to invest ethically. Today there are hundreds of Islamic equity indices offered by Dow Jones, FTSE, MSCI and S&P. Despite the growing importance of Islamic funds, there have been limited studies exploring the performance of Islamic funds worldwide. Due to very limited data sets and not too rigorous analytical methods, these existent studies have neither investigated Islamic funds’ financial performance in noticeable detail nor analysed the investment style of more than six funds. For instance, relevant questions such as the financial performance of Islamic mutual funds’ beyond their investment styles or a difference in performance between funds from Muslim and non-Muslim countries have nearly not been investigated at all. Very recently, a study by Hoepner, Rammal and Rezec (2011) analysed the financial performance and investment style of 262 Islamic equity funds from 20 countries in five regions (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Gulf Cooperative Council-GCC, and North America). As comparison, previous studies did not even analyse 60 funds. Hoepner et al.’s study sampled a period of two decades and was therefore able to test the performance of the funds during economic booms as well as economic downturns. The findings of the study provide new insights into the performance of Islamic mutual funds in Muslim and Western markets and during financial crisis.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Career progression, human capital and pay equity in Australian public sector labour markets

This study uses data from the Victorian Public Sector Census 2004 to identify the extent of equity in pay and career progression (promotion). A system of three equations is developed to capture the endogeneity between human capital and promotion and the interdependence between promotion, pay and human capital. The results indicate that there are substantial differences in the average wages earned by public sector employees in different Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) groups. While some of these differences arise from factors beyond the control of the public sector employers, others arise from bias in the public sector employment system and procedures. The earnings of individual employees in the public sector are determined in a systematic way by the wage structures in the different sub-sectors, the skill base of the employee on recruitment, sub-sector specific promotion rates, acquisition of formal and informal training and the apparent bias within recruitment and promotion systems in dealing with particular groups. The apparent bias of recruitment and promotion systems is complex in makeup and varies within EEO groups as well as between EEO groups. Most of the difference in pay across employees can be explained as an outcome of individual choice and labour market conditions external to the public sector. After adjusting for sectoral wage differences, skill base when recruited, sectoral promotion rate differences, experience in the public sector, whether individuals are employed on a full-time or part-time basis and individual training decisions, the statistical evidence is consistent with the finding that public sector recruitment and promotion systems tends to be biased, on average, against females and those from culturally diverse backgrounds. Achievements in formal education are important for salary progression. This is particularly the case for women. The main drivers of participation in formal education were employer support in both financial and non-financial terms. Promotion rates were important factors in explaining wage differences. Women tended to receive slightly fewer promotions than men, but women received, on average, greater rewards for each promotion.

Criticisms of auditors and earnings management during the Asian economic crisis

Auditors were criticised during and after the Asian economic crisis for supplying variable quality across global audit markets. This study examines
the level of earnings management as measured by discretionary accruals in the pre-crisis compared to the post-crisis periods as they impacted Malaysia. Both the Jones (1991) and earnings per share frequency distribution methods are used to examine earnings management behaviour. As hypothesised, the pre-crisis period is associated with significantly higher levels of absolute discretionary accruals and increased propensity to meet or beat the prior year earnings per share, whereas the post-crisis period is not. This finding is consistent with auditors responding to the criticisms that were made. However, the propensity to avoid losses is found to be higher in the post-crisis period, indicating that earnings management is not fully constrained.

Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

Differences within and between travel preference, planned travel and choice behavior of Australians traveling to Asian and oversea destinations

This study seeks to examine differences in travel preference, travel intention and destination choice behavior of an aggregated set of Australian travelers. Additionally the study seeks to relate income, age, gender, life cycle and life style of Australians to the preference, planning and choice of Asian and overseas destinations. A large representative sample of 49,000 Australian respondents is utilized. Binomial regression is used to profile travelers to Asia and overseas in general. Specific significant variables and differences are highlighted. There are consistent relationships between travel preference, planning and choice and the set of independent variables of income, life cycle and life style. Age nor gender are not consistently related to travel planning or travel choice. It is apparent that a combination of demographics, e.g. age, income and life cycle, combined with life style will provide a more valuable basis for segmentation of Asian and overseas travel markets. The study aims to profile potential Australian tourists thereby making a contribution to tourism knowledge and market segmentation practice.

Higher education services exports : sources of growth of Asian students in US and UK

The paper reviews the recent trends and current developments in the global higher education market with a particular focus on growth of Asian students studying in US and UK. Using pool cross section-time series data over the 1985–2003 period, it is found that different factors affect students from different countries differently. This suggests that the marketing strategies of offshore higher education providers need to be tailored to the specific needs of different markets in order to be successful. The emergence of a number of new players in the higher education export market is also rapidly becoming a major threat to the traditional higher education service exporters.

Differential reporting policy in a changing financial environment

To contend with the globalisation of capital markets the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) in Australia has embarked on a convergence program with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The convergence program is a significant departure from present financial reporting policy and will necessitate substantial change by reporting entities. The effectiveness of the existing differential reporting policy is drawn into question in the light of the changes taking place. An evaluation of the perceptions of the effectiveness of the extant differential reporting model is undertaken and alternative policy approaches considered. The findings indicate that certain aspects of the differential reporting model have had inherent problems not necessarily related to the recent policy change and that corrective action needs to be undertaken to maintain its relevance.