Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

Coordinated control of grid connected photovoltaic reactive power and battery energy storage systems to improve the voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) as well as increasing peak load demand has resulted in poor voltage profile for some residential distribution networks. This paper proposes coordinated use of PV and Battery Energy Storage (BES) to address voltage rise and/or dip problems. The reactive capability of PV inverter combined with droop based BES system is evaluated for rural and urban scenarios (having different R/X ratios). Results show that reactive compensation from PV inverters alone is sufficient to maintain acceptable voltage profile in an urban scenario (low resistance feeder), whereas, coordinated PV and BES support is required for the rural scenario (high resistance feeder). Constant as well as variable droop based BES schemes are analyzed. The required BES sizing and associated cost to maintain the acceptable voltage profile under both schemes is presented. Uncertainties in PV generation and load are considered, with probabilistic estimation of PV generation and randomness in load modeled to characterize the effective utilization of BES. Actual PV generation data and distribution system network data is used to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

Nonlinear pre-fire and post-fire analysis of steel frames

A numerical procedure based on the plastic hinge concept for study of the structural behaviour of steel framed structures exposed to fire is described. Most previous research on fire analysis considered the structural performance due to rising temperature. When strain reversal occurs during the cooling phase, the stress–strain curve is different. The plastic deformation is incorporated into the stress–strain curve to model the strain reversal effect in which unloading under elastic behaviour is allowed. This unloading response is traced by the incremental–iterative Newton–Raphson method. The mechanical properties of the steel member in the present fire analysis follows both Eurocode 3 Part 1.2 and BS5950 Part 8, which implicitly allow for thermal creep deformation. This paper presents an efficient fire analysis procedure for predicting thermal and cooling effects on an isolated element and a multi-storey frame. Several numerical and experimental examples related to structural behaviour in cooling phase are studied and compared with results obtained by other researchers. The proposed method is effective in the fire safety design and analysis of a building in a real fire scenario. The scope of investigation is of great significance since a large number of rescuers would normally enter a fire site as soon as the fire is extinguished and during the cooling phase, so a structural collapse can be catastrophic.

Threat vigilance in child witnesses of domestic violence: a pilot study utilizing the ambiguous situations paradigm

Research has found that children exposed to family violence exhibit higher rates of maladjustment. We review relevant literature on family violence, marital conflict, and cognitive factors implicated in child behaviour problems. A bias toward perceiving threat in ambiguous contexts has been identified as one factor mediating both aggressive and anxious behaviour disorders. We conducted a study utilizing the ambiguous situations paradigm to assess whether children exposed to violent spousal conflict were more likely than children not exposed to violence (divided into children with an externalizing behaviour disorder and non-clinic children) to perceive threat in two classes of ambiguous situations: Peer and Inter-Parental. The results indicated that children exposed to violent spousal conflict perceived more threat in parental situations than either of the other two groups. A number of considerations were taken into account given the exploratory nature of the study, particularly sample limitations. We conclude with suggestions for improvements to the research design and the further relevance of exploring cognitive factors involved in the adjustment of children from backgrounds of violence.

Management of over-the-counter insomnia complaints in Australian community pharmacies: A standardized patient study

Objective To evaluate the current management of over-the-counter (OTC) insomnia complaints in Australian community pharmacies using standardized patient methodology. Methods Trained standardized patients visited a sample of 100 randomly selected South East Queensland community pharmacies in June 2011. The standardized patients enacted two OTC insomnia scenarios: a direct product request (DPR) (n = 50) and a symptom-based request (SBR) (n = 50). Results of the interactions were documented immediately after each visit and evaluated using the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia's WHAT STOP GO protocol as a standard comparison. Key findings Of all DPRs, 30% were handled entirely by the pharmacist, 70% of staff enquired about specific symptoms and 28% investigated the cause of insomnia. No staff investigated the frequency of product use. The DPR scenario resulted in a 92% supply of the requested doxylamine product (Restavit). In the SBR scenario, 18% of requests were handled entirely by the pharmacist, 58% of staff enquired about specific symptoms and 44% investigated the cause of insomnia. Staff recommended medicated products (38%), or herbal (78%) or non-drug techniques (18%). Investigation into smoking and alcohol intake was not undertaken in DPR or SBR interactions, while questioning on caffeine intake was undertaken in 2 and 14% of cases respectively. There were no significant differences found in the handling of sleep requests by pharmacists compared to pharmacy assistants. Conclusion The standardized patient methodology was a successful way to assess the community pharmacy counselling provided with OTC sleep requests and suboptimal staff responses were found when compared with recommended practice standards.

Experimental verification of the modified spring-mass theory of fiber Bragg grating accelerometers using transverse forces

A fiber Bragg grating (FBG) accelerometer using transverse forces is more sensitive than one using axial forces with the same mass of the inertial object, because a barely stretched FBG fixed at its two ends is much more sensitive to transverse forces than axial ones. The spring-mass theory, with the assumption that the axial force changes little during the vibration, cannot accurately predict its sensitivity and resonant frequency in the gravitational direction because the assumption does not hold due to the fact that the FBG is barely prestretched. It was modified but still required experimental verification due to the limitations in the original experiments, such as the (1) friction between the inertial object and shell; (2) errors involved in estimating the time-domain records; (3) limited data; and (4) large interval ∼5 Hz between the tested frequencies in the frequency-response experiments. The experiments presented here have verified the modified theory by overcoming those limitations. On the frequency responses, it is observed that the optimal condition for simultaneously achieving high sensitivity and resonant frequency is at the infinitesimal prestretch. On the sensitivity at the same frequency, the experimental sensitivities of the FBG accelerometer with a 5.71 gram inertial object at 6 Hz (1.29, 1.19, 0.88, 0.64, and 0.31 nm/g at the 0.03, 0.69, 1.41, 1.93, and 3.16 nm prestretches, respectively) agree with the static sensitivities predicted (1.25, 1.14, 0.83, 0.61, and 0.29 nm/g, correspondingly). On the resonant frequency, (1) its assumption that the resonant frequencies in the forced and free vibrations are similar is experimentally verified; (2) its dependence on the distance between the FBG’s fixed ends is examined, showing it to be independent; (3) the predictions of the spring-mass theory and modified theory are compared with the experimental results, showing that the modified theory predicts more accurately. The modified theory can be used more confidently in guiding its design by predicting its static sensitivity and resonant frequency, and may have applications in other fields for the scenario where the spring-mass theory fails.

Laser-radar data fusion with Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces

This work considers the problem of building high-fidelity 3D representations of the environment from sensor data acquired by mobile robots. Multi-sensor data fusion allows for more complete and accurate representations, and for more reliable perception, especially when different sensing modalities are used. In this paper, we propose a thorough experimental analysis of the performance of 3D surface reconstruction from laser and mm-wave radar data using Gaussian Process Implicit Surfaces (GPIS), in a realistic field robotics scenario. We first analyse the performance of GPIS using raw laser data alone and raw radar data alone, respectively, with different choices of covariance matrices and different resolutions of the input data. We then evaluate and compare the performance of two different GPIS fusion approaches. The first, state-of-the-art approach directly fuses raw data from laser and radar. The alternative approach proposed in this paper first computes an initial estimate of the surface from each single source of data, and then fuses these two estimates. We show that this method outperforms the state of the art, especially in situations where the sensors react differently to the targets they perceive.

Strategies for co-targeting the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway in NSCLC

The PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway regulates cell growth and proliferation and is often dysregulated in cancer due to mutation, amplification, deletion, methylation and post-translational modifications. We and others have shown that activation of this pathway in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) leads to a more aggressive disease which correlates to poor prognosis for patients. A multitude of selective inhibitors are in development which target key regulators in this pathway, however the success of PI3K targeted inhibition has been hampered by a high rate of innate and acquired resistance. Response to PI3K inhibition may be improved by co-targeting potential mediators of resistance, such as related cell surface receptors or other intracellular signaling pathways which cross-talk with the PI3K pathway. Inhibition of the PI3K pathway may also overcome radioresistance, chemoresistance and immune evasion in NSCLC. The identification of appropriate patient cohorts who will benefit from PI3K co-targeted inhibition strategies will be key to the success of these inhibitors.

Long non coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are dysregulated in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM)

Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) is an aggressive cancer that is often diagnosed at an advanced stage and is characterized by a long latency period (20-40 years between initial exposure and diagnosis) and prior exposure to asbestos. Currently accurate diagnosis of MPM is difficult due to the lack of sensitive biomarkers and despite minor improvements in treatment, median survival rates do not exceed 12 months. Accumulating evidence suggests that aberrant expression of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play an important functional role in cancer biology. LncRNAs are a class of recently discovered non-protein coding RNAs >200 nucleotides in length with a role in regulating transcription. Here we used NCode long noncoding microarrays to identify differentially expressed lncRNAs potentially involved in MPM pathogenesis. High priority candidate lncRNAs were selected on the basis of statistical (P<0.05) and biological significance (>3-fold difference). Expression levels of 9 candidate lncRNAs were technically validated using RT-qPCR, and biologically validated in three independent test sets: (1) 57 archived MPM tissues obtained from extrapleural pneumonectomy patients, (2) 15 cryopreserved MPM and 3 benign pleura, and (3) an extended panel of 10 MPM cell lines. RT-qPCR analysis demonstrated consistent up-regulation of these lncRNAs in independent datasets. ROC curve analysis showed that two candidates were able to separate benign pleura and MPM with high sensitivity and specificity, and were associated with nodal metastases and survival following induction chemotherapy. These results suggest that lncRNAs have potential to serve as biomarkers in MPM.

Psychological maladjustment among homeless adolescents

The prevalence of psychological maladjustment in homeless adolescents (n = 54) was compared to control group (n 58) in Brisbane, Australia using the Youth Self-Report Scale [1]. Overall, 74% of the homeless group and 22.4% of the control group scored within the clinical range on one or more of the clinical subscales. There was considerable diversity of symptomatology in the homeless group. Less than half of the homeless group were within the clinical range on both the delinquent subscale and the thought disorder subscale. Depressive, Aggressive and Somatic Complaints were also prevalent. The study challenges preconceived notions of simple relationship between adolescent homelessness and delinquency, and draws attention to the psychological needs of this group of adolescents.

Simulating cooperative systems applications : a new complete architecture

For a decade, embedded driving assistance systems were mainly dedicated to the management of short time events (lane departure, collision avoidance, collision mitigation). Recently a great number of projects have been focused on cooperative embedded devices in order to extend environment perception. Handling an extended perception range is important in order to provide enough information for both path planning and co-pilot algorithms which need to anticipate events. To carry out such applications, simulation has been widely used. Simulation is efficient to estimate the benefits of Cooperative Systems (CS) based on Inter-Vehicular Communications (IVC). This paper presents a new and modular architecture built with the SiVIC simulator and the RTMaps™ multi-sensors prototyping platform. A set of improvements, implemented in SiVIC, are introduced in order to take into account IVC modelling and vehicles’ control. These 2 aspects have been tuned with on-road measurements to improve the realism of the scenarios. The results obtained from a freeway emergency braking scenario are discussed.

Urban Food Security, Urban Resilience and Climate Change

The growing importance of logistics in increasingly globalised production and consumption systems strengthens the case for explicit consideration of the climate risks that may impact on the operation of ports in the future, as well as the formulation of adaptation responses that act to enhance their resilience. Within a logistics chain, seaports are functional nodes of significant strategic importance, and are considered as critical gateways linking local and national supply chains to global markets. However, they are more likely to be exposed to vagaries of climate-related extreme events due to their coastal locations. As such, they need to be adaptive and respond to the projected impacts of climate change, in particular extreme weather events. These impacts are especially important in the logistics context as they could result in varying degrees of business interruption; including business closure in the worst case scenario. Since trans-shipment of freight for both the import and export of goods and raw materials has a significant impact on Australia’s sustained economic growth it was considered important to undertake a study of port functional assets, to assess their vulnerability to climate change, to model the potential impacts of climate-related extreme events, and to highlight possible adaptation responses.

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

OSCE online : making assessment of clinical competencies transparent, accountable & authentic

Creating an authentic assessment which at once assesses competencies, scene management, communication and overall patient care is challenging in the competitive tertiary education market. Increasing student numbers and the cost of evaluating scenario based competencies serve to ensure the need for consistent objectivity and need for timely feedback to students on their performance. Objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) is currently the most flexible approach to competency based formative and summative assessment and widely used within paramedic degree programs. Students are understandably compelled to perform well and can be frustrated by not receiving timely and appropriate feedback. Increasingly a number of products aimed at providing a more efficient and paperless approach have begun to enter the market. These products, it is suggested are aimed at medicine programs and not at allied health professions and limited to one operating system and therefore ignore issues surrounding equity and accessibility. OSCE Online aims to address this gap in the market and is tailored to these disciplines. The application will provide a service that can be both tailored and standardised from a pre-written bank, depending upon requirement to fit around the needs of clinical competency assessment. Delivering authentic assessments to address student milestones in their training to become paramedics is the cornerstone of OSCE Online. By not being restricted to a specific device it will address issues of functionality, adaptability, accessibility, authenticity and importantly: transparency and accountability by producing contemporaneous data allowing issues to be easily identified and rectified.

The tertiary debate : a case study analysis of factors considered when applying for university entry by traditional age school leavers in Brisbane

Many interacting factors contribute to a student's choice of a university. This study takes a systems perspective of the choice and develops a Bayesian Network to represent and quantify these factors and their interactions. The systems model is illustrated through a small study of traditional school leavers in Australia, and highlights similarities and differences between universities' perceptions of student choices, students' perceptions of factors that they should consider and how students really make choices. The study shows the range of information that can be gained from this approach, including identification of important factors and scenario assessment.