Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Itajai foreland basin: a tectono-sedimentary record of the Ediacaran period, Southern Brazil

The Itajai Basin located in the southern border of the Luis Alves Microplate is considered as a peripheral foreland basin related to the Dom Feliciano Belt. It presents an excellent record of the Ediacaran period, and its upper parts display the best Brazilian example of Precambrian turbiditic deposits. The basal succession of Itajai Group is represented by sandstones and conglomerates (BaA(0) Formation) deposited in alluvial and deltaic-fan systems. The marine upper sequences correspond to the Ribeiro Carvalho (channelized and non-channelized proximal silty-argillaceous rhythmic turbidites), Ribeiro Neisse (arkosic sandstones and siltites), and Ribeiro do Bode (distal silty turbidites) formations. The ApiA(0)na Formation felsic volcanic rocks crosscut the sedimentary succession. The Cambrian Subida leucosyenogranite represents the last felsic magmatic activity to affect the Itajai Basin. The Brusque Group and the Florianpolis Batholith are proposed as source areas for the sediments of the upper sequence. For the lower continental units the source areas are the Santa Catarina, So Miguel and CamboriA(0) complexes. The lack of any oceanic crust in the Itajai Basin suggests that the marine units were deposited in a restricted, internal sea. The sedimentation started around 600 Ma and ended before 560 Ma as indicated by the emplacement of rhyolitic domes. The Itajai Basin is temporally and tectonically correlated with the Camaqu Basin in Rio Grande do Sul and the Arroyo del Soldado/Piriapolis Basin in Uruguay. It also has several tectono-sedimentary characteristics in common with the African-equivalent Nama Basin.

30 million years of Permian volcanism recorded in the Choiyoi igneous province (W Argentina) and their source for younger ash fall deposits in the Parana Basin: SHRIMP U-Pb zircon geochronology evidence

We present four SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages for the Choiyoi igneous province from the San Rafael Block, central-western Argentina. Dated samples come from the Yacimiento Los Reyunos Formation (281.4 +/- 2.5 Ma) of the Cochico Group (Lower Choiyoi section: andesitic breccias, dacitic to rhyolitic ignimbrites and continental conglomerates). Agua de los Burros Formation (264.8 +/- 2.3 Ma and 264.5 +/- 3.0 Ma) and Cerro Carrizalito Formation (251.9 +/- 2.7 Ma Upper Choiyoi section: rhyolitic ignimbrites and pyroclastic flows) spanning the entire Permian succession of the Choiyoi igneous province. A single ziron from the El Imperial Formation, that is overlain unconformably by the Choiyoi succession, yielded an early Permian age (297.2 +/- 5.3 Ma). while the main detrital zircon population indicated an Ordovician age (453.7 +/- 8.1 Ma). The new data establishes a more precise Permian age (Artinskian-Lopingian) for the section studied spanning 30 Ma of volcanic activity. Volcanological observations for the Choiyoi succession support the occurrence of explosive eruptions of plinian to ultraplinian magnitudes, capable of injecting enormous volumes of tephra in the troposphere-stratosphere. The new SHRIMP ages indicate contemporaneity between the Choyoi succession and the upper part of the Parana Basin late Paleozoic section, from the Irad up to the Rio do Rasto formations, encompassing about 24 Ma. Geochemical data show a general congruence in compositional and tectonic settings between the volcanics and Parana Basin Permian ash fall derived layers of bentonites. Thickness and granulometry of ash fall layers broadly fit into the depletion curve versus distance from the remote source vent of ultraplinian eruptions. Thus, we consider that the Choiyoi igneous province was the source of ash fall deposits in the upper Permian section of the Parana Basin. Data presented here allow a more consistent correlation between tectono-volcanic Permian events along the paleo-Pacific margin of southwestern Gondwana and the geological evolution of neighboring Paleozoic foreland basins in South America and Africa. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One, two or no record of late neoproterozoic glaciation in South-East Cameroon?

Severe climate changes culminating in at least three major glacial events have been recognized in the Neoproterozoic sedimentary record from many parts of the world Supportive to the global nature of these climatic shifts a considerable amount of data have been acquired from deposits exposed in Pan-African orogenic belts in southwestern and western Africa By comparison published data from the Pan-African belts in Central Africa are scarce We report here evidence of possibly two glacial events recorded in the Mintom Formation that is located on the margin of the Pan-African orogenic Yaounde belt in South-East Cameroon In the absence of reliable radiometric data only maximum and minimum age limits of 640 and 580 Ma respectively can at present be applied to the Mintom Formation The formation consists of two lithostratigraphic ensembles each subdivided in two members (i e in ascending stratigraphic order the Kol Metou Momibole and Atog Adjap Members) The basal ensemble exhibits a typical glacial to post-glacial succession It includes diamictites comprising cobbles and boulders in a massive argillaceous siltstone matrix and laminated siltstones followed by in sharp contact a 2 m-thick massive dolostone that yielded negative delta(13)C values (<-3 parts per thousand. V-PDB) similar to those reported for Marinoan cap carbonates elsewhere However uncertainty remains regarding the glacial influence on the siliciclastic facies because the diamictite is better explained as a mass-flow deposit and diagnostic features such as dropstones have not been seen in the overlying siltstones The Mintom Formation may thus provide an example of an unusual succession of non-glacial diamictite overlain by a truly glacial melt-related cap-carbonate We also report the recent discovery of ice-striated pavements on the structural surface cut in the Mintom Formation suggesting that glaciers developed after the latter had been deposited and deformed during the Pan-African orogeny Striations which consistently exhibit two principal orientations (N60 and N110) were identified in two different localities in the west of the study area on siltstones of the Kol Member and in the east on limestones of the Atog Adjap Member respectively N60-oriented striae indicate ice flow towards the WSW Assigning an age to these features remains problematical because they were not found associated with glaciogenic deposits Two hypotheses can equally be envisaged e either the striated surfaces are correlated (1) to the Gaskiers (or Neoproterozoic post-Gaskiers) glaciation and represent the youngest Ediacaran glacial event documented in the southern Yaounde belt or (2) to the Late Ordovician Hirnantian (Saharan) glaciation thereby providing new data about Hirnantian ice flows in Central Africa (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved

Tectonic implications of a paleomagnetic study of the Sarmiento Ophiolitic Complex, southern Chile

A paleomagnetic study was carried out on the Late Jurassic Sarmiento Ophiolitic Complex (SOC) exposed in the Magallanes fold and thrust belt in the southern Patagonian Andes (southern Chile). This complex, mainly consisting of a thick succession of pillow-lavas, sheeted dikes and gabbros, is a seafloor remnant of the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous Rocas Verdes basin that developed along the south-western margin of South America. Stepwise thermal and alternating field demagnetization permitted the isolation of a post-folding characteristic remanence, apparently carried by fine grain (SD?) magnetite, both in the pillow-lavas and dikes. The mean ""in situ"" direction for the SOC is Dec: 286.9 degrees, Inc: -58.5 degrees, alpha-95: 6.9 degrees, N: 11 (sites). Rock magnetic properties, petrography and whole-rock K-Ar ages in the same rocks are interpreted as evidence of correlation between remanence acquisition and a greenschist facies metamorphic overprint that must have occurred during latest stages or after closure and tectonic inversion of the basin in the Late Cretaceous. The mean remanence direction is anomalous relative to the expected Late Cretaceous direction from stable South America. Particularly, a declination anomaly over 50 degrees is suggestively similar to paleomagnetically interpreted counter clockwise rotations found in thrust slices of the Jurassic El Quemado Fm. located over 100 km north of the study area in Argentina. Nevertheless, a significant ccw rotation of the whole SOC is difficult to reconcile with geologic evidence and paleogeographic models that suggest a narrow back-arc basin sub-parallel to the continental margin. A rigid-body 30 degrees westward tilting of the SOC block around a horizontal axis trending NNW, is considered a much simpler explanation, being consistent with geologic evidence. This may have occurred as a consequence of inverse reactivation of old normal faults, which limit both the SOC exposures and the Cordillera Sarmiento to the East. The age of tilting is unknown but it must postdate remanence acquisition in the Late Cretaceous. Two major orogenic events of the southern Patagonian Andes, in the Eocene (ca. 42 Ma) and Middle Miocene (ca. 12 Ma), respectively, could have caused the proposed tilting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chondrichthyans from the base of the Irati Formation (Early Permian, Parana Basin), Sao Paulo, Brazil

Three species of chondrichthyans are reported from conglomeratic sandstone at the base of the Lower Permian (Artinskian) Irati Formation (Parana Basin) near Rio Claro, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The fossils include: 1) dispersed teeth of the petalodont ltapyrodus punctatus Silva Santos 1990, first described from the Permian (Artinskian) Pedra do Fogo Formation, Parnaiba Basin, Northeast Brazil; 2) a new species of tooth of the Order Orodontiformes; and 3) a new species of finspine of the Order Ctenacanthiformes. These fossils occur in an allochthonous assemblage of vertebrate remains including other Chondrichthyes, Xenacanthiformes and cladodonts, paleonisciform bony fish, and tetrapods. This discovery is a significant contribution to the sparse record of South American Chondrichthyes from the Early Permian and raises questions regarding the paleoenvironmental adaptations among these fish within Paleozoic basins of Brazil at this time. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The onset of flood basalt volcanism, Northern Parana Basin, Brazil: A precise U-Pb baddeleyite/zircon age for a Chapeco-type dacite

We report the first U-Pb baddeleyite/zircon date for a felsic volcanic rock from the Parana Large Igneous Province in south Brazil. The new date of 134.3 +/- 0.8 Ma for a hypocrystalline Chapeco-type dacite from Ourinhos (northern Parana basin) is an important regional time marker for the onset of flood basalt volcanism in the northern and western portion of the province. The dated dacite was erupted onto basement rocks and is overlain by a high-Ti basalt sequence, interpreted to be correlative with Pitanga basalts elsewhere. This new U-Pb date for the Ourinhos dacite is consistent with the local stratigraphy being slightly older than the few reliable step-heating (40)Ar/(39)Ar dates currently available for overlying high-Ti basalts (133.6-131.5 Ma). This indicates an similar to 3 Ma time span for the building of the voluminous high-Ti lava sequence of the Parana basin. On the other hand, it overlaps the (40)Ar/(39)Ar dates (134.8-134.1 Ma) available for the stratigraphically older low-Ti basalt (Gramado + Esmeralda types) and dacite-rhyolite (Palmas type) sequences from South Brazil, which is consistent with the short-lived character of this volcanism and its rapid succession by the high-Ti sequence. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

U-Pb zircon and (40)Ar-(39)Ar K-feldspar dating of syn-sedimentary volcanism of the Neoproterozoic Marica Formation: constraining the age of foreland basin inception and inversion in the Camaqua Basin of southern Brazil

New U-Pb zircon and (40)Ar-(39)Ar K-feldspar data are presented for syn-sedimentary volcanogenic rocks from the Neoproterozoic Marica Formation, located in the southern Brazilian shield. Seven (of nine) U-Pb sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe analyses of zircons from pyroclastic cobbles yield an age of 630.2 +/- 3.4 Ma (2 sigma), interpreted as the age of syn-sedimentary volcanism, and thus of the deposition itself. This result indicates that the Marica Formation was deposited during the main collisional phase (640-620 Ma) of the Brasiliano II orogenic system, probably as a forebulge or back-bulge, craton-derived foreland succession. Thus, this unit is possibly correlative of younger portions of the Porongos, Brusque, Passo Feio, Abapa (Itaiacoca) and Lavalleja (Fuente del Puma) metamorphic complexes. Well-defined, step-heating (40)Ar-(39)Ar K-feldspar plateau ages obtained from volcanogenic beds and pyroclastic cobbles of the lower and upper successions of the Marica Formation yielded 507.3 +/- 1.8 Ma and 506.7 +/- 1.4 Ma (2 sigma), respectively. These data are interpreted to reflect total isotopic resetting during deep burial and thermal effects related to magmatic events. Late Middle Cambrian cooling below ca. 200 degrees C, probably related to uplift, is tentatively associated with intraplate effects of the Rio Doce and/or Pampean orogenies (Brasiliano III system). In the southern Brazilian shield, these intraplate stresses are possibly related to the dominantly extensional opening of a rift or a pull-apart basin, where sedimentary rocks of the Camaqua Group (Santa Barbara and Guaritas Formations) accumulated.

Acquisitions: The Next Generation

This article reviews a broad range of trends and concerns regarding the recruitment, training, and retention of acquisitions librarians. The survey of trends benefits library educators and students, members of search commillees seeking to fill acquisitions vacancies, and working acquisitions librarians.

Extrativismo em área de reserva da biosfera da Mata Atlântica no Rio Grande do Sul : um estudo etnobiológico em Maquiné

As frondes de Rumohra adiantiformis (G.Forest.) Ching, conhecida como “leatherleaf”, “seven-weeks-fern” ou samambaia-preta, são usadas mundialmente em arranjos florais. Na África do Sul e Brasil o comércio da espécie é baseado no extrativismo. No Brasil a coleta é realizada em áreas de Mata Atlântica, sendo que 50% da produção provém das áreas de capoeira das encostas da Serra Geral no Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Atualmente, cerca de 2.000 famílias de agricultores familiares vivem nestas áreas, tendo no extrativismo sua principal fonte de renda. No entanto no RS a coleta, o comércio e o transporte de plantas ornamentais nativas são proibidos, já que nesta zona de transição da Reserva da Biosfera da Mata Atlântica (Maquiné, RS) há grandes restrições quanto à exploração dos recursos naturais. O êxodo rural e o próprio extrativismo estabelecido a partir da década de 70, permitiram a regeneração da Floresta Ombrófila Densa. Como a espécie é característica de estágios sucessionais iniciais, a regeneração florestal está levando à diminuição dos estoques naturais. Este trabalho se propôs a identificar alternativas econômicas para diversificação da economia de famílias de extrativistas, no intuito de minimizar a tensão associada à diminuição dos estoques naturais de samambaia-preta, às dificuldades no manejo da terra e à legislação ambiental. Junto à comunidade extrativista do distrito de Solidão (Maquiné) foram coletados dados etnobiológicos sobre plantas medicinais e plantas relacionadas ao artesanato. As principais espécies identificadas foram: Bambusa tuldoides (taquareira, colmo), Clytostoma sciuripabulum (cipó-branco, caule), Cyperus prolixus (tiririca, partes aéreas), Musa acuminata (bananeira, palha), Scirpus californicus (junco, partes aéreas), Typha dominguensis (taboa, partes aéreas), sendo que Macfadyena dentata (cipó-unha-de-gato, caule), Roupala brasiliensis (carvalho-brasileiro, folhas) e Tillandsia usneoides (barbade- pau, planta inteira) são as espécies prioritárias para a avaliação da sustentabilidade do extrativismo. Os dados etnobiológicos e ecológicos mostram que é possível estabelecer o manejo sustentável da R. adiantiformis. Os maiores entraves para o estabelecimento do manejo sustentado para as espécies identificadas incluem: a) estabelecer as bases de manejo sustentável destas espécies; b) compatibilizar esta atividade extrativista com o atual Código Florestal Estadual. Plantas medicinais não parecem ser uma alternativa viável a curto prazo, enquanto o artesanato requer a adequação da atividade artesanal no meio rural com os direitos à aposentadoria rural.

Sucessão em empresas familiares: estudo de caso da Empresa Galeazzi & Cia Ltda

This dissertation presents a study about the Succession in Family Companies. Therefore it was used the exploratory research which includes the only ono company 'Galeazzi & Cia Ltda'. At first the purpose was to verify which aspects contributed to achieve a high growth and after, got into an accelerated decay period that culminated with the extinction of it.

A sucessão na empresa familiar: um estudo de caso na empresa Centro Elétrico na cidade de São Luís Estado do Maranhão

This paper deals with the familiar enterprise succession leaving as a goal to identify, describe and analyze the factors which facilitate and make difficult the process of succession of the familiar enterprise. To this it contextualizes the familiar enterprise in the labor market through its contexts, process and characters. Afterward it treats of the familiar enterprise as an system in its complexity of this segment of the enterprise. It considered the need on studying its origin, evolution and characteristics. Also the ethics and familiar administration. It also, considered the cycle of life, the three-dimensional model of development having as a base the propriety, family and enterprise axes as well as the familiar profissionalization, the main focus reposes in the succession process having as a base its planning the field search reveals it self descriptive, that¿s to say a case study through interview with the proprietors, successors, aggregates and succeeded ones. Finally the management indicators which aim, to contribute to the familiar succession.

O processo de composição narrativa no encontro terapêutico : (des)construindo autorias

Essa pesquisa procurou investigar o processo de composição narrativa pela dupla estagiário-terapeuta/paciente, em uma situação de psicoterapia psicanalítica, a partir do contexto de uma prática supervisionada de estágio em Psicologia Clínica. Participaram da pesquisa duas acadêmicas de Psicologia que realizaram o estágio em um abrigo municipal. O trabalho clínico desenvolvido pelas estagiárias foi acompanhado pela supervisão acadêmica, cuja responsável na época era a pesquisadora. Também participaram dessa pesquisa três meninas de seis, nove e dez anos de idade, acolhidas temporariamente na instituição e em acompanhamento psicoterapêutico pelas estagiárias. Os atendimentos foram realizados uma vez por semana, individualmente, na própria instituição. As estagiárias relataram cada entrevista preliminar realizada com as crianças sob a forma escrita de entrevista dialogada, cujo objetivo é a memorização do desenvolvimento da entrevista. Essa memorização associada às reflexões acerca do estágio produzidas no espaço de supervisão acadêmica formaram as fontes dos dados. Para atingir o objetivo dessa pesquisa, três estudos foram realizados e, em cada um deles, três casos, constituídos por diferentes duplas terapêuticas, foram analisados. Os resultados dos três estudos demonstram, inicialmente, que o discurso elaborado pelas duplas terapêuticas, em cada entrevista preliminar isoladamente, estrutura-se narrativamente porque esse discurso apresenta os dois princípios da narrativa, que são a sucessão e a transformação, como propõe Tzvetan Todorov. A análise conjunta dessas entrevistas denota, entretanto, que as narrativas constituídas nesse processo não podem ser reduzidas a uma lógica de sucessão linear como formula esse autor. A seqüência narrativa é regida pela lógica de causalidade semântica, que é de natureza polifônica, como propõe Paul Ricoeur. As intervenções das estagiárias sob a forma de construções, conforme conceito estabelecido por Freud, mesmo que guiadas pelo princípio da associação livre, são demarcadas, em sua maioria, pela repetição de uma versão já conhecida da história da vida de seu paciente, geralmente àquela que versa sobre o motivo do abrigamento. Assim, essas intervenções, cujo efeito possível seria que o paciente pudesse desconstruir os sentidos dados a priori, reconstruindo novas versões para os acontecimentos de sua vida e, com isso, ocupasse o lugar de autor de sua história, acabam insistindo no trauma. Dessa forma, fica explicitado um dos paradoxos do processo de formação da escuta clínica: o estagiário, ao procurar abrir os sentidos para o seu paciente, construindo junto com ele uma versão possível para a sua história, acaba, muitas vezes, fechando o sentido, construindo uma única versão para os eventos narrados pelo paciente.

A complexidade do processo de sucessão em empresas familiares: um estudo de caso da libel linhares distribuidora de bebidas em Rosário – Maranhão.

A exigência pelo mercado de empresas competitivas vem se tornando cada vez maior, em vista das constantes mudanças que acontecem a cada instante no mundo globalizado. Gerenciar uma empresa é uma tarefa complexa, e essa tarefa torna-se ainda mais delicada quando trata-se de uma empresa familiar. Administrar uma empresa onde os funcionários participam do dia-a-dia da família, por pertencerem a ela, pode muitas das vezes confundir a constituição desses espaços, gerando no ambiente empresarial crises que possam ter origem a partir da incapacidade do gestor em separar os dois ambientes, ou mesmo da dificuldade em separar seu lado emotivo de cunho familiar das atividades profissionais da empresa. Aliado à essas dificuldades surge um dos maiores problemas do empreendimento familiar, a questão da sucessão, momento que é crucial para muitas empresas e reflete na sua permanência no mercado ou mesmo na sua dissolução e falência. Nasce daí a preocupação com o planejamento sucessório, ainda não tratado com a devida importância que lhe é devida por algumas empresas. Apresenta-se aqui um Estudo de Caso, de uma empresa que vem se desenvolvendo de maneira eficiente, porém poderia está bem melhor se não estivesse passando por uma crise na sucessão, resultado da ausência de um planejamento pelos seus fundadores. Busca-se aqui retratar o problema da sucessão, e assim demonstrar que esse processo deve ser pensado e analisado, se possível desde os primeiros anos de vida da empresa, visto que período suficiente há para essa elaboração.

Divergências nas percepções de executivos proprietários e profissionais contratados nos fatores críticos de sucesso em um processo de sucessão familiar: um estudo de caso na Empresa Real Auto-Ônibus

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar as divergências na percepção de profissionais contratados e executivos com vínculo familiar quanto aos fatores críticos de sucesso em um processo de sucessão em empresas familiares. Para tanto, contextualiza-se a empresa familiar quanto suas características, tipologia e participantes, bem como suas tendências no mundo globalizado. Em seguida, caracterizaram-se as empresas familiares quanto as práticas de governança corporativa, apresentando o seu conceito e principalmente a teoria do agente e o principal. O foco principal do trabalho foi abordado em seguida, nas características do processo de sucessão em empresas familiares, onde se verificou necessário abordar a caracterização do ciclo de vida em empresas familiares. Também foram apresentados os fatores críticos de sucesso mais encontrados nos fundamentos teóricos. Para reforçar referencial teórico foi realizado um estudo de caso, sendo realizadas entrevistas com executivos com vínculo familiar e profissionais contratados. Após analise dos resultados, apontaram-se as principais divergências encontradas entre os dois grupos entrevistados.