A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Ann Eliza Hepburne Rooth fonds, 1837-1897

Ann Eliza Hepburne was born in Chippawa, Ontario, in 1821, to William Hepburne and Susan Shannon. In 1842, she married William Anthony Rooth in St. James Cathedral in Toronto. They continued to live in different parts of the Niagara region, including Drummondville, Welland and Port Colborne. William was the editor and proprietor of the Drummondville Reporter, as well as an accountant and insurance agent, and later worked for the Customs Service in Port Colborne. He died in 1878, and Eliza in 1899. Both are buried in Drummond Hill Cemetery in Niagara Falls, Ontario.

Order to create a General Board of Health in the Town of Niagara, June 25, 1832

In the early nineteenth century, a widespread outbreak of cholera occurred in continental Europe, eventually spreading to the British Isles. The disease subsequently spread to Canada as impoverished British immigrants seeking a better life arrived in the country. To help curb the spread of the disease, local Boards of Health were created.

Order to create a General Board of Health in the Town of Niagara, June 25, 1832.

In the early nineteenth century, a widespread outbreak of cholera occurred in continental Europe, eventually spreading to the British Isles. The disease subsequently spread to Canada as impoverished British immigrants seeking a better life arrived in the country. To help curb the spread of the disease, local Boards of Health were created.

Woodruff Family fonds, 1784 – 1983, (non-inclusive)

The Woodruff Family Collection: From the time the Woodruff Family came to Canada from the United States in 1795, they took an active role in the forming of their communities both in a civic and social manner. This is evident through the documents contained in this collection. The Woodruffs played an active role in the battles fought in Upper Canada and they were an integral part of the Village of St. Davids. They were educated, business-minded and socially engaged. They accumulated much of their fortune through land dealings. Much of this collection focuses on Samuel DeVeaux Woodruff who was principally a businessman. His dedication to his work is shown through his numerous undertakings. He made his mark on the Niagara Peninsula through his work on the railways, roads, marsh land revisions, canals and the paper industry. He was also involved with the founding of the Long Point Company and he took control of building DeVeaux Hall down to the last detail. His offspring inherited his work ethic and his business acumen. The people who married into the Woodruff Family also possessed key social, political and business ties. Anne and Margaret Clement were from a staunch Loyalist background. Samuel Zimmerman was instrumental to the founding of Niagara Falls and Judge Samuel DeVeaux left behind a legacy for poor and homeless boys in Niagara Falls, New York. The Woodruff Family undoubtedly left a mark on the Niagara Peninsula. This collection brings to light many endeavours of the family and their varied contributions.

List tracing Details of Water Race to go through the Lands of Phelps, Clendinnan, Sanderson, Butler, and Chase

List (4 pages of printed material) tracing the details of the water race to go through the lands of Phelps, Clendinnan, Sanderson, Butler and Chase. This includes a copy of the following: the authority dated Dec. 22, 1829; a letter of encouragement dated Oct. 24, 1833; a transfer from Dittrick, Adams and others to the Welland Canal Company dated Dec. 6, 1834; a lease from the Welland Canal Co. to Adams and others dated Nov. 28, 1834 and the terms of the indenture dated May 24, 1847.

Clippings - Road Allowances, Lock 2 Bridge, Toronto Railway Company, St. Davids' History

Clipping regarding the original road allowance which was part of Mr. Woodruff’s property, n.d. Clipping regarding the Lock 2 Bridge. This is a letter to the editor of the Journal from Calvin Phelps of Lockport, Nov. 13, 1889. Clipping entitled “Settled beyond a Dispute”: a letter to the Editor of the Star from J. G. Currie regarding the road allowance in the 5th Concession of Grantham, Nov. 16, 1889. Clipping entitled “That Old Road Allowance” which is a rebuttal to Mr. Currie’s letter, [1889] 2 newspaper clippings regarding: “Reg. vs. Toronto Railway Company”. These 2 articles are glued to a piece of paper. Beneath the newspaper articles is the name M. Chambers, Nov. 18, 1898. Notes regarding the clippings are enclosed with the articles. These notes and written on the back of “Pattison, Collier and Shaw Barristers, Solicitors, Etc.” stationary (notes are 2 pages, handwritten), Nov. 18, 1898. Clipping entitled “History on the Site: St. Davids’ Students Learn Lessons where Events Occurred” (2 copies), n.d.

Letter - P. Mason to S.D. Woodruff

Letter from P. Mason of Ottawa to S.D. Woodruff stating that a certificate has been issued to pay full compensation for all the damage to lots 20 and 21 in the 5th Concession in Grantham by the overflow of the Welland Canal. A piece has been torn from the top of the letter. This does not affect the text, Sept. 24, 1880.

Letter to Mr. Highman and Mr. Donaghue in which Mr. Harding in enclosing 3 pounds as a subscription for the pilot

Letter to Mr. Highman and Mr. Donaghue in which Mr. Harding in enclosing 3 pounds as a subscription for the pilot. This is initialed by S.D. Woodruff, May 12, 1848.

Copy of a report of a Committee of the Honorable and Executive Council dated May 6, 1859 approved by His Excellency the Governor General in Council

Copy of a report of a Committee of the Honorable and Executive Council dated May 6, 1859 approved by His Excellency the Governor General in Council. This is in regard to charges made by Joshua Manly of Port Colborne against Mr. Woodruff, the superintendent and other persons connected with the Welland Canal. The accusations have been substantiated by the committee. This is accompanied by a petition accusing Mr. Woodruff of gross corruption and jobbery [the practice of using a public office or position of trust for one's own advantage]. This was signed by a number of petitioners on July 2, 1858 (2 pages, handwritten), 1859.

Letter is addressed to S.D. Woodruff and is from Dunnville [signature illegible]

Letter is addressed to S.D. Woodruff and is from Dunnville [signature illegible] (3 pages, handwritten). The writer suggests that the head of the Welland Canal should be guarded. He has made a deal with the Sappers and Miners [Corps of Royal Military Artificers, consisting of noncommissioned officers and privates] to be stationed at this point, Jan.24, 1862.

Chart of final estimate of work done on section no.10, locks 24, 25 and 26 by Sharp and Quinn

Chart of final estimate of work done on section no.10, locks 24, 25 and 26 by Sharp and Quinn, contractors commenced Nov. 1843 and was finished May 1845.

Chart of final estimate of work done between Port Dalhousie and lock no.2 by Robert Jobson

Chart of final estimate of work done between Port Dalhousie and lock no.2 by Robert Jobson, contractor. The work commenced Nov. 1846 and was finished April 1847 on sections A and B, July 1847.

Chart of calculations regarding quarrying, cutting, transportation and cement

Chart of calculations regarding quarrying, cutting, transportation and cement, n.d.

Map of measurements of lots no.185 and 186 by George Strohan

Map of measurements of lots no.185 and 186 by George Strohan, Dec. 29, 1855.